2021 Dolphins vs Patriots pre game thread

[n6249c]

This will be a good one. Two closely matched teams in normal circumstances. Right now I really like the Patriots.

QB: Mac < Tua (for now). I think the difference in play here will decide things. How close can the rookie close the gap, or can he actually have a better day? I wouldn't expect it start 1, but it would certainly make things tough on Miami
RB: Pats Core >> Dolphins Core - Gaskin and Ahmed aren't bad, but they aren't a special duo. Gaskin can do a bit of everything so we need to be ready for anything when he's on the field. But the Pats win here in both top liners and depth.
WR: Pats Core > Dolphins Core - This would easily be the Dolphins if they had Fuller. Right now they are hurting. They have the best WR in Parker but not much else after him yet. Waddle in his first NFL start probably won't be a huge factor, next time they play though look out. One of the rare times I expect the Pats have the WR edge.
TE: Pats Core > Dolphins - Gesicki is a good TE. But he can't equal both Smith and Henry.
OL: Pats >> Dolphins - There won't be many times this year that the Pats don't win this match up if they stay healthy. Simply put. One of their better OL men from last year is now a back up for us (Karras). They also lost Ereck Flowers and have a lot of young guys trying to work their way in. Their OL is going through a bit of a transition right now as far as I know and it should have some issues.

The Pats on paper should be fielding a much better offense than Miami, the question is can their rookie QB take advantage?

DL Pats Core < Dolphins Core - The Pats did well adding to this group, but it still isn't the strength we'd like it to be, but it will be improved for sure. The Dolphins have the potential makings of a very good core going forward. Davis in his 2nd year could be very interesting. They also may have found something with Sieler. But in the end the foundation is Wilkins an Ogbah.
LB Pats Core >>> Dolphins Core - Simply put, the Dolphins lost their best LB and we signed him. Add in Judon and Hightower and this isn't even close. I had to look up the names of their LBs. A fair amount of former Pats cast offs and some guys I don't know. A tiny bit of digging didn't change my mind much. This egde is absolutely staggering. Not even on the same planet.
CB Pats Core < Dolphins Core - With no Gilmore this is an easy Dolphins win. They added the still fairly capable Jason McCourty for barely anything, a crime we didn't resign him for that contract looking at it now. Byron Jones has lost some luster from when he was one of the best young CBs in the league, but the dude can still ball and is among the better starting outside guys for sure. Add in their headliner Howards and some potentially nice depth and they look very solid here.
S Pats Core > Dolphins Core. The Dolphins lost their top Safety Bobby McCain and did nothing to replace him. It feels like they are hoping young unproven guys step up. IDK, You tell me if you know something i don't. Try transitioned Eric Rowe here who is okay, but not much behind him.

Looking at this game now, I'm surprised it ONLY has a 3 point spread. The Patriots have the much better 2-53 man roster. And the Dolphins QB situation doesn't give me much hope that any difference there can overcome that. Bottom line IMO. If Mac Jones plays it relatively safe and doesn't allow a pick 6 to Howard or we have a bunch of fumbles/penalties. I don't see how this game is all that close right now.

Pats 24 Dolphins 16

Problem with this analysis is that it compares units that don’t play each other.

for example, “OL: Pats >> Dolphins”
but “DL Pats Core < Dolphins Core”

the Pats OL does not match up against the ‘Phins OL,
and the Pats DL does not match up against the Miami DL.

so who cares that the Pats OL is much better than the Dolphins OL, while the Miami DL is slightly better than the N.E. DL.

what matters is whether the Patriots OL is better than the Dolphins DL, and is the Dolphins OL better than the Pats DL.

I’ve not studied it closely but my general impression is that the Pats OL will win the matchups against the Miami DL, and the Pats DL will win their matchups against the ‘Phins OL.

you may or may not agree with that, but that’s the analysis that will be meaningful in projecting expectations for the game, not comparing units that won’t be matched up against each other on the field.

BTW I agree with your bottom line, I think the Pats will cover the spread easily. Just don’t think the way you got there was sound logic.

 

[MrTibbs]

I rewatched the week 15 game from last season and the Patriots had many opportunities to win. The Dolphins have since lost a few players on defense but gained on offense. The Patriots weak defense still held the Dolphins in check, Tua was a minimal threat. It's tough for any team to come into Foxborough and win. I feel pretty confident in the Patriots getting the first W of the Mac Jones era, I can't wait.

 

[mgteich]

favored by 3 seems right, by 6 if we had re-signed McCourty

 

[BobDigital]

Problem with this analysis is that it compares units that don’t play each other.

for example, “OL: Pats >> Dolphins”
but “DL Pats Core < Dolphins Core”

the Pats OL does not match up against the ‘Phins OL,
and the Pats DL does not match up against the Miami DL.

so who cares that the Pats OL is much better than the Dolphins OL, while the Miami DL is slightly better than the N.E. DL.

what matters is whether the Patriots OL is better than the Dolphins DL, and is the Dolphins OL better than the Pats DL.

I’ve not studied it closely but my general impression is that the Pats OL will win the matchups against the Miami DL, and the Pats DL will win their matchups against the ‘Phins OL.

you may or may not agree with that, but that’s the analysis that will be meaningful in projecting expectations for the game, not comparing units that won’t be matched up against each other on the field.

BTW I agree with your bottom line, I think the Pats will cover the spread easily. Just don’t think the way you got there was sound logic.

The thing is that this was never meant to be an Xs Os post. I I'll do one of those too but closer to game time. Maybe Wendsay once ive had a chance to look at and think about a few more things. This was simply a comparison and breakdown of my perspective on their talent level, using the Patriots as a familiar bench mark.

I think that helps to put things in a more easy to digest perspective for myself and some people who read it.

 

[Zarozzor]

Should be a win. Dolphins have a good team, but Tua is their quarterback.

 

[BobDigital]

I rewatched the week 15 game from last season and the Patriots had many opportunities to win. The Dolphins have since lost a few players on defense but gained on offense. The Patriots weak defense still held the Dolphins in check, Tua was a minimal threat. It's tough for any team to come into Foxborough and win. I feel pretty confident in the Patriots getting the first W of the Mac Jones era, I can't wait.

This brings up a point I noticed no one else is talking about. Everyone assumes we will see the same Dolphons team for the most part. Personally I have they've gotten noticeably worse.

Lost: starting C, LG, LB, DE and S. None of them were game breakers, but they did nothing or very little to replace them. Their biggest signings are a back up QB. 2 CBs who are not really impact guys at this point and Will Fuller. And Fuller isn't even playing this week.

This team right now is banking on lots of 2nd year jumps thst they have little hope for. And Tua being great.

 

[PScottman]

Extended preseason is "all-new, now with more extension!" this year.

With only three preseason games now, I just want to set expectations that this game will more than likely be a Thursday night game on steroids.

Sloppy tackling, low scheme, poor communication, wrong routes, bad angles, etc - for both sides. There simply hasn't been enough practice to inculcate the fundamentally sound approach that defines Patriot football.

Add in to that running QB containment defensive approach and the likelihood of the Patriots being "what people want to see" (especially in the game day thread) of high blitzing, attacking D and chicks digging the long ball....if I may quote Wesley "get used to disappointment."

 

[jimnance]

So does this set a record for earliest pre-game thread?
I think it speaks to how ready we all are for the season to start.
Let's f'n gooooooo!

 

[Keyser Söze]

link? i wanna read this

NFL network 8 out of 10 have us losing

Boy they're in for a suprise. Here's a link to the video with the predictions at the end. Dolphins vs pats preview link

finheaven.com

One of a few Pats threads on the main forum

 

[Uptown]

MIA didn’t lose their best LB. Jerome Baker was/is their best LB; not KVN.

 

[A Defiant Goose]

We bought tickets as soon as Cam got released. We're tailgating starting at like 9AM. Who wants to meet up?

 

[mgteich]

Extended preseason is "all-new, now with more extension!" this year.

With only three preseason games now, I just want to set expectations that this game will more than likely be a Thursday night game on steroids.

Sloppy tackling, low scheme, poor communication, wrong routes, bad angles, etc - for both sides. There simply hasn't been enough practice to inculcate the fundamentally sound approach that defines Patriot football.

Add in to that running QB containment defensive approach and the likelihood of the Patriots being "what people want to see" (especially in the game day thread) of high blitzing, attacking D and chicks digging the long ball....if I may quote Wesley "get used to disappointment."

I disagree.

We had several practices with other teams. Those are at least as valuable as preseason games. Also, I believe starters played more than normal in the last preseason game this year.

 

[Boston Boxer]

just run the ball and wear them down. We have too good an OLine and our RBs just keep coming. run Harris...oh he needs a break, Rham is now trucking defenders. Getting tired yet, stop James White from catching balls out of the backfield. Rinse and repeat. Once the defense is ready to give up, here you go, chase JJ Taylor around. Dont look now but we have TEs open down field to extend drives.

 

[holyredeemer]

Extended preseason is "all-new, now with more extension!" this year.

With only three preseason games now, I just want to set expectations that this game will more than likely be a Thursday night game on steroids.

Sloppy tackling, low scheme, poor communication, wrong routes, bad angles, etc - for both sides. There simply hasn't been enough practice to inculcate the fundamentally sound approach that defines Patriot football.

Add in to that running QB containment defensive approach and the likelihood of the Patriots being "what people want to see" (especially in the game day thread) of high blitzing, attacking D and chicks digging the long ball....if I may quote Wesley "get used to disappointment."

I agree for the most part, though getting used to disappointment might be too strong of a word. First game, A LOT of young players, and non-stop full tilt action at a level most of these guys haven’t seen. Sure there have been a decent amount of practices and joint practices, but those aren’t games. My hope is that the young guys can hang in there, weather any bad plays and string together some good ones.

I’m concerned about the offensive passing game. I think Mac is gonna be a great player, but it’s game one and we haven’t seen what he can do against another teams 1’s yet. How is the starting D going to hold up against the run and how is our defensive backfield going to fare against a mobile qb and covering some broken down plays? Are the problems with penalties and ST’s going to carry over from preseason??

I see a win on the horizon, but could see it easily going the other way as well. 24-14 Pats.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

I don’t know, did Starr ever play against Namath after the NFL/AFL merger ? How about Namath vs Stabler ? I would be surprised if this was the 1st time for Bama QBs to face each other.

Namath and Starr were in two different leagues, by the time the merger happened, Starr was done. Stabler stared just about the same time Namath was washed up.

However, October 23, 1977 the Ken Stabler led Oakland Raiders defeated the Richard Todd led NYJETES 28-27. So yes, two Alabama alumni starting QBs have played against each other in the NFL before. There could be more, I stopped after finding one.

Oakland Raiders at New York Jets - October 23rd, 1977 | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Oakland Raiders 28 at New York Jets 27 on October 23rd, 1977 - Full team and player stats and box score

www.pro-football-reference.com

 

[gitgronked82]

favored by 3 seems right, by 6 if we had re-signed McCourty

Yeah, Jason McCourty would not swing a spread by 3 points. Very few non-quarterbacks are capable of that (if any), and Jmac is definitely not one of them.

 

[amfootball]

favored by 3 seems right, by 6 if we had re-signed McCourty

I agree. We are at home so as long as Mac does not look like a rookie, I think we win in close one. That thing that concerns me the most is how little time Mac got with the ones. I really hope they are able to be on the same page. I also want to see our run D and how much has it improved from last year when the Fins trucked us. I expect us to run on Miami as well.

 

[Kontradiction]

Pound the rock at them. I’d like to see something like a 60/40, 70/30 run to pass ratio. Miami’s run defense doesn’t appear to be all that improved from a year ago. Put Mac into manageable 3rd down situations where he can hit the TEs or Meyers on easy crossing routes, slants, etc. Man-beaters since Miami loves man coverage. Just stay on schedule.

 

[Uptown]

 

[Kontradiction]

Defensively, I’d like to see a good mix of Cover-1, Cover-0. Bring the house against Tua and prove he can read the field quickly. Mix in a good amount of disguise and make heavy use of Rats and Robbers to hopefully force an INT or two. Move into Cover-3 in obvious passing situations and bring the corners up in press. Challenge him mentally and see if his processing has improved. If it hasn’t, this could be a long day for them.