This breakdown is a long time coming. I dived deep into this one. One of my longer post ever
Bucs @ Packers – The Packers are the easiest team to break down this year going into this game, as they have been the most consistent team of these 4 teams in the NFL. You know exactly what you get from them. So let's get down to business.
The Packers offense – This offense has been one of the greatest offenses in the super bowl era. Not based on PPG, which while good isn't eye popping. It is the points per drive that is truly amazing. Their offense holds on to the ball, drives down the field and scores more often than not. Rarely do they get over 10 offensive possessions a game like most teams, because they chew up so much clock and shorten the game. They also have been very good about holding onto the ball. Only 11 turnovers on the year is a sensational number.
Here is another way to look it. Since 2002 the best 3 offenses in Points Per Drive have been the 2007 Patriots at 3.19 points, the 2018 Chiefs at 3.12 points and the 2020 Packers at 3.08 points. No other offense since that time has averaged over 3 PPD. So you could argue the Packers are on the level of those 2 offenses, at least on the surface, but as we look deeper we might find out that isn't the case. Even if they aren't quite that level they aren't too far off it, and they have the best offense in the league by a little more than people think.
A lot of teams and coaches are obsessed with the running game, often to their detriment. Green Bay is big on running, but not to their detriment because they do it effectively. A good little stat I tend to keep in my mind is 5 YPC. If you hit the over, running is worth being a central part of your game plan. If you hit the under, it's pretty much just a situational thing and to mix it up. Jones averages 5.5 YPC. That number passes a certain threshold that if you have a bad run are you STILL likely to convert if you run the other two times. It's a big reason why they have been so effective. It means their run game can drive them down the field to score a TD without much or potentially any help from Rodgers if that is what the defense gives them.
But there are certain things that should be kept in mind. Their other backs aren't nearly as deadly. Williams is their 2nd back ad averages 4.2 YPC. And while Dillon averages 5.3 he did so on only 46 carries, and a lot of them came against Tenn which gave up 234 yards that day. Outside of that he has been okay, but not exceptional. The plan should be this: When Aaron Jones is on the field, be weary about the run. When anyone else is, bait them to run and try to put them behind on down and distance.
I should also want to point out the weakness of their schedule. It was probably the easiest schedule in the NFL this year. When they did face good competition it didn't come easy. They faced 6 of the top 10 rush Ds (1 Bucs, 2 Colts, 3 Rams, 4 Saints, 6 Falcons, 7 49ers). In those games they rushed for 94, 66, 188, 98, 88 and 111 respectively. Most games were well below their average 132 yards. Clearly the outlier is last week vs the Rams, but I'll consider that the Donald effect aberration and move on. Generally, history shows good run Ds can successfully limit this run game. That will be a key.
As far as the defenses they faced, the top defenses were in PPG the #1 Rams #5 Saints, #8 Bucs an #10 Colts. They didn't face any other Ds in the top 10. While it is worth pointing out they scored well in almost all those games 32, 37, 10, and 31 respectively. While this looks to prove how good their offense is, I don't think it holds up if you look deeper.
The Rams without Donald are not close to as good. He may be the best defensive player of all time. The Rams defense is built around getting quick pressure and that's based on what Aaron does and what he opens up for the other DLs who are overall pretty good but not great.. Some people will argue he was somewhat effective, Anyone who says that wasn't watching the game IMO. His biggest impact was giving up a meaningless 15 yard PF penalty. They probably would have been better off making him inactive so his team could better prepare for the lack of his presence. Even with that it was 18-25 in the final five minutes or so. They saw the writing on the wall, gambled, and got beat. Those points still count, but not all points are created equal. To me that's equivalent of a good but not great D holding them between 25-28 points.
As for the Saints game, they simply didn't play well and GB played exceptionally well. When the other D makes mistake upon mistake, it doesn't matter how highly ranked they are. They got shown up by Allen Lazard multiple times deep down the field.. He was fairly wide open for both of his big catches of 48 yards and particularly that 72 yards which both led to TDs. Adams wasn't even out there to draw pressure away! It was just bad coverage with DBs allowing him behind him. The 48 yarder may looker close at the end, but that's only due to bad placement by Rodgers IMO. Add in 83 yards on 8 penalties for NO (a couple on key 3rd downs) vs 2 for 10 on GB, and this game got away from them.
The Bucs game was kind of fluky in the other direction. They certainly should have been able to score more than 10, but so many things went wrong and snowballed on them. As for the Colts, giving up 116 penalty yards isn't good. While they aren't as good as the other 3, it would have been less most likely if they played a cleaner game.
I tend to look at the the defenses of the Bucs (when mostly healthy), Saints and Rams differently. One was the best but got hobbled. The other couldn't get it together, and for the last one everything turned sideways on GB. I think the truth is somewhere in the middle. The snow is an X factor, but the Bucs holding GB down to below 30 should be very possible.
As far as the defense of the Packers... They are overrated (and that's when they're considered middle of the pack). Remember how their offense took time off the clock and limited drives? That protected their D as well. They gave up 23.1 PPG and likely should have given up something more like 25 or 26 if their offense wasn't doing an amazing job not turning it over and shortening the game. The few times they faced good offenses they have been beaten fairly badly.
5th New Orleans 30 points, 11th Vikings 34 and 28 points, 3rd Bucs 38 points, 9th Colts 34 points, 4th Titans 14 points. These are the only top 16 offenses in PPG they played. Besides that one outlier when the Titans shat the bed, generally they gave up over 30 PPG when facing top offenses. There's no reason to suspect they will be able to hold a good offense below that number if they show up to play to their potential. It's also worth noting the only games they lost this year were against good offenses, in which they went 3-3.
The Saints and Colts games could have gone either way. The Vikings split with a D that gives up 29.1 PPG. The Titan just didn't show up and the Bucs blew them out. It's pretty scatter shot with the truth being somewhere in the middle. Generally what can't be denied is the ability of a good offense to take advantage of this D and make the game near a coin flip. Against teams that both have a good offense AND slowed down their run game they went 1-3. Though they could have easily been 3-1, 2-2 or 0-4. Most of those games were very close.
One more thing about GB's D. They've played a lot of zone this year, generally that doesn't work vs Brady too well. They need to mix it constantly and change their looks post snap. If they go against the Bucs playing the same kind of D they did last time, they will need to score in the 30s to have a chance. They should be more ready this time. If not they are going to need the best game from their offense all year to win.
It can be argued that the Bucs may well be the worst possible match up for GB. This isn't to say the Bucs will win for sure. But it does lead to some interesting food for though. But you always have a question of the elements hanging over their head which could make things interesting.
The Bucs on the other hand, have been one of the hardest teams to break down. Mostly because we don't know for sure what they are. We might think we do, but are aren't sure. This is a defense that was looking like potentially one of the top 5 units in the league for a while. Then injuries an inconsistency hit. Big plays were blown and they fell in the rankings. The play on the field looked disjointed and out of sync. Going into the playoffs the narrative was the offense would need to carry the defense. Then in their most important game so far this season, the defense kind of carried the offense a bit, and especially the special teams! Yuck.
So which is the real Tampa D? The one we saw against the Saints in the playoffs and earlier in the year or they one we've seen most of the 2nd half of the year? Which D should we be more likely to expect? No one knows. But I have a feeling the D against the Saints is closer to what we will see the rest of the way. They've gotten healthy and are playing well. Vea is likely coming back for the Packers game, will he be as useless as Aaron Donald was? A smoke screen? Or will he be able to be the anchor that takes this run D to the next level while pushing the pocket up? No one will know till Sunday. If this D can't slow down the Packers run game or offense in general they will probably at best be slight underdogs (considering the game is in GB).
On offense, which offense shows up? The one that looked like it had successfully mixed Brady and Bruce's philosophies and went on a spree to end the year? Or the unimaginative an predictable play calling against the Saints which made this offense look out of sorts? With GB's D being below average by a fair amount, it's hard to imagine any offense with the talent of the Bucs not doing well. But the difference between a a couple extra punts may well be the difference in the game. Will they regress or was it a speed bump? Again, I tend to side with the idea they will be back on track. I think Arians out thought himself. The Saints were in his head and he got away with what worked because of it. With the Packers they go back to the offense which looked sharp at the end of the year and in Washington (outside of the drops). But again, we won't know till Sunday.
After 2 games of Evans/Godwin/Brown not being the dynamic trio they should, you would imagine that has to change. Surely Brate won't be allowed to be the leading WR for the Bucs with all this pro bowl quality talent right? Can they really be so underwhelming 3 games in a row? Hard to believe.
Sacks and pressure will be a big thing. Both teams surrendered very few sacks. The Bucs with 22 and Packers with 21. As far as getting pressure, both teams are pretty good at it. The Bucs are 5th and the Packers are 10th in sacks. But the Packers blitz fairly rarely compared to the Bucs. It will be interesting to see. Both Ols are down a starter. GB is down a more important one, though it didn't matter vs the Rams (who had an ineffective Donald). Both lines should be able to keep their QB relatively clean. A key might be that the Bucs injury is on the inside where GB doesn't have a particularly great pass rush, while the GB injury is on the outside where both team's main pass rush comes from.
It's fair to say the GB OL is better than the Bucs, but the Bucs front 7 and DL is better than GB's. Overall I expect the Bucs OL to hold and win more than not against what I believe is a pretty average front. The GB OL will be tested but should have an edge. They should have a harder job than the Buc's OL. Trenches are so important in a game with snow on the ground like this. So it is worth talking more about, but I'm not the guy to break it down. Not my best area.
Prediction – Bucs 31 Packers 27 – The Bucs offense will fest. The Packers offense will struggle just enough. This will be a heart attack game. Personally I believe the Packers have yet to be truly tested by a good D. They played the Saints on one of their fairly bad defensive days. The Rams losing Donald was just too much, and it shook them. Those were the only Ds I consider of note that they played. Yes, they played the Bucs, but that's a game I kind of throw out. A lot went wrong the other way for them. I think the Bucs do enough to make things hard on the packers. They limit the run and by doing so control the tempo, which the Packers won't like. They force them to throw on uncomfortable down and distances. It leads to them winning the turnover battle which probably gives them the game. The Bucs offense be a force IF their stars play well. All they need is their D to trip GB up a bit, which I think they will. A few punts, a pick and suddenly they're in the drivers seat. I'm going to assume a lower score than I otherwise would, as the unders are playing well right now. My first instinct was 34-31, so I'll go lower at 31-27.
