Prediction and breakdown
Bills @ Chiefs
I'm going to assume that KC will be fine and have CEH back for this one as well as Mahomes mostly being okay. Though the toe of Mahomes will be worth keeping an eye on, as will how aggressively he plays. Does he continue to run with abandon? We will see. Moving on!
The Bills absolutely deserve to be here. They were the 2nd best team in the AFC this year, and it really wasn't as close as a lot of people wanted you to think. Let's first start with their D.
The Bills have a slightly better D than KC, even though they are lower on the rankings. Particularly since their bye. While it is true they faced some pretty bad offenses since then, they also faced some okay ones like Miami, Indy and Balt who they let score 26, 24 and 3 points (26 is also the most they surrendered in the 8 games since the bye). While these offenses aren't as good as KC, the fact that they managed to keep them in the mid 20s or lower is a good sign. This means KC is probably not going to be able to hang 35+ on them and just put the game out of reach. The Bills will have a shot.
On the offensive side, the Bills offense hasn't look as good as it has in the past, and that is an issue. Since ending the year on fire, they haven't been getting it done in the playoffs either on the score board or on the field. It has looked just a little off. I would say that right now of the 4 teams left, which are all offensive teams, the Bills have the worst. Not that they are bad, but I don't see them being able to keep up with the others if their D doesn't give them help.
The main issue the Bills face is they can't really beat you multiple ways on offense. They don't have a back you need to be afraid of. Singlertary is fine, but not special. And If you dedicate resources to not letting Diggs take over the game, how else do they beat you? Beasley? He's a good player, but not a guy you can depend on. Even though Diggs has had good games recently, I think the fact that they are so predictable offensively has become a problem for them against higher quality teams.
Even without having great defensive talent, you would figure the well coached Chiefs can figure out to not leave Diggs on an island on key downs or let him get over the top for a quick 7. So if that is the case how do the Bills answer? The only option is that Allen needs to run like a man possessed. It will hopefully help open up Diggs and take pressure off other guys. As much as I don't like a QB running being the plan, I don't think the Bills have an option here. They need Allen to run for multiple first downs on third downs that would otherwise be punts. He needs to get it in the end zone when his WRs are covered. He need to break it up the middle of the field for big 10+ yard gains. To win this game I think Allen needs to have about 10 big time run plays, as well as do damage in the passing game. If that happens they have their foot in the door with a chance to push it open.
On defense the Bills need to pick their poison. They tend to let teams run by design and have one of the better defensive passer ratings in the NFL. CEH is a good but not great runner. He has 4.4 YPC in that offense, which seems kind of low. I know KC's offensive line isn't as great as it use to be, but it isn't horrible IMO and with tier passing attack more should be open. If I'm the Bills DC I let CEH run all day. Any down they don't throw a pass is a win. The Bills used the same plan last time they played, and while it didn't work they were able to keep KC to 26 points. They should do it again with just a few tweaks. The key about letting KC run is don't let Mahomes run for first downs or the receives beat you on end arounds. Those are the runs that can kill you. CEH getting 161 yards on 26 carries can't and won't happen again.
Last game they let CEH get too many easy yards. As much as I think they should bait them to run again, they can't give up a bunch of big runs, like they did last game. They need to invite GB to run, but make them see some reasonable 2nd and 3rd downs while doing it. Keep the down and distance reasonable and letting them run 35 times for 160 yards or so yards isn't a big deal. If it takes the ball out of Mahomes hands 5-10 times it would otherwise be in there, then it's worth it.
One last thing. Control the clock well in the last 2 minutes of the half and in the game. Call smart plays and don't try to score too fast unless it is wide open and they basically let you. Even 30 seconds is too much if KC has time outs. And playing that 2 minute offense is what they are built to do. They are built to pick up chunks and take deep shots. Don't go out of your way to give them a chance to do it when you could call plays that leave less time.
As far as KC's offense, they need to just put it together. They have been so hot and cold this season. Rarely having a complete game. The main issue they have is they need to take the open plays that are there. Don't go for 20 yards on 3rd and 5 when you have an underneath guy who you can fit it in too with good reliability. Don't be afraid of long drives if that is what they give you. They were a bit more patient against Cleveland, but that got away from them a little. The Bills defense is built well to take away some of the things they do best. They don't tend to give up big chunks of pass plays, and trying to force them may get KC in trouble. Not to say they should never take a shot, but don't live in die by them in this match up.
Also, be careful with Mahomes if they can help it. I'm not sure how hurt he will be, but putting him in harms way with called QB runs when you have guys like Hill, Kelce, Hardman and Watkins seems unneeded. If he needs to run so be it, but you don't need to call it. If they need to put their back up on the field for any length of time vs the Bills they will lose. No need to take a risk.
On the defensive side, besides not allowing Diggs to beat them, they should challenge the other WR on the field. Make them beat you in man. Of course with safety help over the top at all time. I don't think they are that talented and it is worth testing them. Though KC kind of does what they do on D a fair amount of the time.
One other thing KC should do is bait the Bills into running, They only have one back that they really trust and after that they have little depth. While KC's run D isn't the best, it isn't so bad that it will blow the game against a mundane run game like the Bills. Some benefits of this strategy would be that you force their 3rd and maybe even 4th string back on the field who are more likely to give you a turnover. As well as force the Bills to throw against a coverage look you like the majority of the time. The fact is the Bills are even worse off than KC if they are forced to try to win by running.
Prediction - KC 27 Bills 23 – The Main issue with the Bills the past few weeks has been offense more than their defense. More aptly the inability of their run game to get anything going besides Allen making some nice runs. This can be overcome if you have an elite defense of a Brady/Montana level QB who can win without a run game, Allen isn't that. He's been good this year, but not good enough to go any further with an offense that has good but not great play makers and a defense that right now is playing good but not great. They are a godo team, but they just aren't on the level of the other 3 teams left most days. That being said, they are a bad match up for KC in certain scheme ways. Some of their strengths (like pass defense) play well against a team like KC. And they can score. If KC makes mistakes or Mahomes goes down I fully expect KC to jump on it. They are well within the margin of ever. One big play, one weird bounce and it is anyone's game the way KC has played this year.
