2019 NE CAP SPACE

[Ring 6]

I don't think they will give him more than 28M in SB.

I know cap rised a lot since last extension but he will be 42 soon.

If they give him 28M like the did last they they extend him his cap will be btw 23-24M

Rumors were he was getting 3 years 100 mill with 50 gyaranteed, for what that’s worth.

 

[venecol]

 

[patsbrasilpatriotas]

It does work like that after the rule of 51 is over.
Let me put it another way.
The guy making 756k on the day he signs replaces a guy making say 550k the 51st highest cap number. Only 51 count.

But in your example you added up 45 guys to get the cap hit. The 8 others that make up the 53 count for the whole number.

The rule of 51 is just an accounting measure. The rookies actually count for whatvthere cap number is when they make the team.

Sir,

Now they have 68 players signed, one of them is Josh Gordon. His contract like the player is suspended.

Ok?

They have a cap number X

Ok?

They will sign hypothetically 12 picks + Gostkowski + UDFA

Ok?

They now have 90 guys

And the cap will be X - Gost number + 680k - 2.5M from the picks

All gtd money that they cut will be added to the dead money, but will be VERY small

Ok?

Now starts TC ...

They will cut players ...

They will stop cutting players when they find 53 players that they like

They already have a cap that account for the 51 most expensive players, do you agree?

So ... They need cap to sign player 52 + 53 and PS guys that usually take btw 1.5M - 2M

Ok?

That is why i am predicting they will have btw 4-6M

And if they extend Brady they will have 3-4M more.

They will not have only 45 at ANY point.

I only put the ''locks'' on my list because usually they make more money.

If they are cut the cap will rise even more 90% of the time.

Ok?

 

[Ring 6]

Sir,

Now they have 68 players signed, one of them is Josh Gordon. His contract like the player is suspended.

Ok?

They have a cap number X

Ok?

They will sign hypothetically 12 picks + Gostkowski + UDFA

Ok?

They now have 90 guys

And the cap will be X - Gost number + 680k - 2.5M from the picks

All gtd money that they cut will be added to the dead money, but will be VERY small

Ok?

Now starts TC ...

They will cut players ...

They will stop cutting players when they find 53 players that they like

They already have a cap that account for the 51 most expensive players, do you agree?

So ... They need cap to sign player 52 + 53 and PS guys that usually take btw 1.5M - 2M

Ok?

That is why i am predicting they will have btw 4-6M

And if they extend Brady they will have 3-4M more.

They will not have only 45 at ANY point.

I only put the ''locks'' on my list because usually they make more money.

If they are cut the cap will rise even more 90% of the time.

Ok?

Your previous post added up the cap hits of all the players and stopped at 44 platters.
I was pointing out that if you are doing it that way then you have to count the TOTAL cap of players 45-53 not the net after subtracting the player they replace when the 51 rule is in effect.

They now have 8.2 million.
The rookies under the rule of 51 will take up about 2.5 million
Player 52-53 will take up about 1 mill
The net is cheaper players making the team and the dead money of those that don’t has a safest guess of net 0 but could be more or lesss

That leaves 4.7


They have to pay the ps players. As you said 1.4 mill

That leaves 3.3

If we pay 2.5 to gostkiwski we are down to 800k.
This assumes 0 players are injured and put on IR

In season we need to have cap room to:
Cover any nltbe bonuses that are earned
Replace any injured players
Make trades

I believe Miguel estimates that at 6-8 mill bring needed.

So before we sign any free agent at more than a minimum salary we will need to free up another 5-7 million PLUS the cost of the FA.

 

[venecol]

 

[Family]

Just a thought during these restructures.............

"Up against the cap" is a relative term. Some pointed to bidding for players like Humphries, Tate, and others as proof that they weren't. That thinking is as accurate as someone saying they are up against it because of certain restructures.

How many other off seasons can people remember the Pats lost so many FA bids by so little? It's happened, but not this many times.

Is it possible the Pats were bidding up certain players to force the competition to pay more and always were satisfied to be where they are now, given the cap situation?

The Patriots will never be in cap hell with BB. Maybe when considering these circumstances, this is the Patriot's version of being against the cap.

 

[luuked]

How many other off seasons can people remember the Pats lost so many FA bids by so little?

Was there anyone else besides Humphries ? I mean there is a difference between being part of a bidding contest and "just being interested". Who am I missing ?

 

[mgteich]

The patriots had $20M of restructures available, with more than $85M of 2020 cap space. If the patriots wanted to bid a couple of million more, the cap was not an obstacle.

Just a thought during these restructures.............

"Up against the cap" is a relative term. Some pointed to bidding for players like Humphries, Tate, and others as proof that they weren't. That thinking is as accurate as someone saying they are up against it because of certain restructures.

How many other off seasons can people remember the Pats lost so many FA bids by so little? It's happened, but not this many times.

Is it possible the Pats were bidding up certain players to force the competition to pay more and always were satisfied to be where they are now, given the cap situation?

The Patriots will never be in cap hell with BB. Maybe when considering these circumstances, this is the Patriot's version of being against the cap.

 

[Family]

Was there anyone else besides Humphries ? I mean there is a difference between being part of a bidding contest and "just being interested". Who am I missing ?

Cole Beasley, reported mutual interest in Amnedola and Tate.

I agree these aren't that many, but they represent pretty much their only realistic WR chances in a limited market.

The Humphries thing never smelled right to me. The Pats enter with what is now reported as a back loaded offer after the fact?

Feels like Bill felt he could nudge the Titans higher with a smirk on his face.

 

[Family]

The patriots had $20M of restructures available, with more than $85M of 2020 cap space. If the patriots wanted to bid a couple of million more, the cap was not an obstacle.

I never used "obstacle." Yes they could have done anything they wanted. No debate there.

But their free agency plan seemed to be either get a great deal or mess up others. It felt like when Bill saw this FA market he headed out to sea.

Do you think if the Pats had 60M in cap a solid WR would be here? If yes or possible, would it be fair to they didn't sign a WR is because they were up against the cap? Of course not.

My point is the answer is middle ground. They are not actually up against the cap, but it's a factor in their approach this year, if you believe part of their success is discipline.

 

[mgteich]

You only point to WR's. I suspect that both Amendola and Tate received more than the patriots were willing to pay. How much more than what they received would you have paid?

With regard to Humphries. I just don't know. Obviously, he wishes that the patriots came up with an offer for more money earlier, rather than after he had made his decision. However, it is not clear at all if this would have gotten the player. He might simply have gotten a bit more from someone else. How much higher would you have bid for Humphries?

BOTTOM LINE
We had the money and filled lots of holes by re-signing our own (hopefully adding the Ghost soon) and by adding 7 players. Personally, I think that we "bid" too much for Humphries.

Belichick didn't get a top WR in the first week. Is this terrible? The team signed a #3 WR in Dorsett. The team signed competitors for the #5 WR spot in Harris and Ellington. Belichick also tendered Gordon. Isn't acquiring FOUR wide receivers a reasonable effort in the first week of free agency?

There will be many, many more opportunities to acquire a WR in free agency, in trade and in the draft. There even will be opportunities after the season starts. And yes, we need 2 more, a #2 and a #4. Of course, Gordon will be the #2 if he is available.

active: Edelman, Gordon, Dorsett
active STer: Harris or Ellington
inactive #4 (replacement for Hogan): TBD

How bad is this WR corps? Should we panic with only 5 months to upgrade from this group, and to provide backups?

I never used "obstacle." Yes they could have done anything they wanted. No debate there.

But their free agency plan seemed to be either get a great deal or mess up others. It felt like when Bill saw this FA market he headed out to sea.

Do you think if the Pats had 60M in cap a solid WR would be here? If yes or possible, would it be fair to they didn't sign a WR is because they were up against the cap? Of course not.

My point is the answer is middle ground. They are not actually up against the cap, but it's a factor in their approach this year, if you believe part of their success is discipline.

 

[patsbrasilpatriotas]

Your previous post added up the cap hits of all the players and stopped at 44 platters.
I was pointing out that if you are doing it that way then you have to count the TOTAL cap of players 45-53 not the net after subtracting the player they replace when the 51 rule is in effect.

They now have 8.2 million.
The rookies under the rule of 51 will take up about 2.5 million
Player 52-53 will take up about 1 mill
The net is cheaper players making the team and the dead money of those that don’t has a safest guess of net 0 but could be more or lesss

That leaves 4.7


They have to pay the ps players. As you said 1.4 mill

That leaves 3.3

If we pay 2.5 to gostkiwski we are down to 800k.
This assumes 0 players are injured and put on IR

In season we need to have cap room to:
Cover any nltbe bonuses that are earned
Replace any injured players
Make trades

I believe Miguel estimates that at 6-8 mill bring needed.

So before we sign any free agent at more than a minimum salary we will need to free up another 5-7 million PLUS the cost of the FA.

They now have 8.2 million. >>> No. They have 8.2M + Gordon's contract - 645k

The rookies under the rule of 51 will take up about 2.5 million >>>> No. The rookies will take 2.5M.
Period.
There are already 51 guys counting against the cap that leave us with 8.2M in cap space + Gordon's contract - 645k.

Our first pick has a cap hit of 1.8M.

He will take place of the cheapest player on the roster.

So the math is pretty easy to follow:

1.8M - cheapest rookie = Money that we need.

After the #1 pick, other rookies have minimal impact on the cap.

So 2.5M is the TOTAL.

Player 52-53 will take up about 1 mill >>>>>> More or Less Josh Gordon's salary credit that we will get.

That leaves 5.7

They have to pay the ps players. As you said 1.4 mill >> Yes they do.

That leaves 4.3

If we pay 2.5 to gostkiwski we are down to 800k. >>>

NO.

Gostkowski is gonna take a place of a CURRENT player on a cheaper deal.

So if we pay him 2.5M, we are gonna lose 1.7M in cap space.

That leaves 2.6M

That money above is for a 90M roster. because by the rules you are paying the 51 guys that cost more.

You will cut players and i will give you one example.

David Parry probably won't make the team. He has a cap number of $743,750.
Keion Crossen probably will make the team. He has a cap number of $532,804
Maurice Harris probably won't make the team. He has a cap number of $962,500
Our 4th round pick probably will make the team. He has a cap number of $700k

All this little savings will increase our 2.6M cap space.

If there are a surprise cut such as Ebner or another vet the cap will be even bigger.

So now you understand that i am talking about the begining of the year.

Players 52 and 53 are already on the books but they should be only now.

So that is why i predicted a cap btw 4-6M + Brady's extension.

All rookies that won't make the team have little gtd money.
All veterans that won't make the team havelittle gtd money .

4-6M + Brady's extension is more than enough for all of this actions:

In season we need to have cap room to:
Cover any nltbe bonuses that are earned
Replace any injured players
Make trades

So before we sign any free agent at more than a minimum salary we will need to free up another 5-7 million PLUS the cost of the FA. >>> Please stop saying that. They need money to sign the draft picks. ALL other actions are after the final cuts and the cap will be higher. It is not hard to understand.

 

[mgteich]

. Please stop saying that. They need money to sign the draft picks. ALL other actions are after the final cuts and the cap will be higher. It is not hard to understand.

The team will carry $6M to $10M in reserves to start the season.

 

[Family]

The team will carry $6M to $10M in reserves to start the season.

Yes they will, something like that.

Which makes a surprise late training camp cut or trade more likely this season.

 

[Ring 6]

They now have 8.2 million. >>> No. They have 8.2M + Gordon's contract - 645k

The rookies under the rule of 51 will take up about 2.5 million >>>> No. The rookies will take 2.5M.
Period.
There are already 51 guys counting against the cap that leave us with 8.2M in cap space + Gordon's contract - 645k.

Our first pick has a cap hit of 1.8M.

He will take place of the cheapest player on the roster.

So the math is pretty easy to follow:

1.8M - cheapest rookie = Money that we need.

After the #1 pick, other rookies have minimal impact on the cap.

So 2.5M is the TOTAL.

Player 52-53 will take up about 1 mill >>>>>> More or Less Josh Gordon's salary credit that we will get.

That leaves 5.7

They have to pay the ps players. As you said 1.4 mill >> Yes they do.

That leaves 4.3

If we pay 2.5 to gostkiwski we are down to 800k. >>>

NO.

Gostkowski is gonna take a place of a CURRENT player on a cheaper deal.

So if we pay him 2.5M, we are gonna lose 1.7M in cap space.

That leaves 2.6M

That money above is for a 90M roster. because by the rules you are paying the 51 guys that cost more.

You will cut players and i will give you one example.

David Parry probably won't make the team. He has a cap number of $743,750.
Keion Crossen probably will make the team. He has a cap number of $532,804
Maurice Harris probably won't make the team. He has a cap number of $962,500
Our 4th round pick probably will make the team. He has a cap number of $700k

All this little savings will increase our 2.6M cap space.

If there are a surprise cut such as Ebner or another vet the cap will be even bigger.

So now you understand that i am talking about the begining of the year.

Players 52 and 53 are already on the books but they should be only now.

So that is why i predicted a cap btw 4-6M + Brady's extension.

All rookies that won't make the team have little gtd money.
All veterans that won't make the team havelittle gtd money .

4-6M + Brady's extension is more than enough for all of this actions:

In season we need to have cap room to:
Cover any nltbe bonuses that are earned
Replace any injured players
Make trades

So before we sign any free agent at more than a minimum salary we will need to free up another 5-7 million PLUS the cost of the FA. >>> Please stop saying that. They need money to sign the draft picks. ALL other actions are after the final cuts and the cap will be higher. It is not hard to understand.

1) my math was off by 1 mill
2) I am considering 2.5 for ghost to be the net hit (ie hit is just over 3 and cap impact is 2.5
3) your last comment makes no sense.
The cap doesn’t get higher. All of that money is needed. The impact at cutdown of (1) savings due to players not in the top 51 making the roster over players in the top 51 and (2) the dead money hits of all the cuts is certainly not sure to be positive. The best guess is net of zero. (Remember even udfas get signing bonuses so all 37 players cut to get from 90 to 53 will have some kind of dead money and anyone put on IR carries their full cap number. Last year Wynn, Dawson, Izzo and Sam counted 3.6 million on the cap over and above the 53 on the roster. That’s just 4 I thought of off the top of my head and we had other Ir or injury settlement costs. You can’t ignore that factor either)
So we would have 1.8 mill

All of the money needed in season is real.
If you think being in a position where you have no choice but to cut a higher salary for no reason other than you don’t have the cap space to make it through the season is fine, we disagree.

And again, my comments started as saying we need to free up more money if we are going to sign more free agents at any more than miminums.
In reality we need to free up more money if we sign no one to have the cushion needed to make it through the season.

 

[Snooky97]

Follow this thread as Miguel tends to be one of those rare people who understands Cap Hits and contracts.

Update;

Miguel has won another argument..

 

[SBLIII]

 

[Ivan]

Isn’t it just easier to let Miguel post his numbers and take them as fact?

 

[zipster9]

They will surely get extra relief after they restructure (extend & convert to upfront signing bonus):

- Tom Brady
- D.McCourty
- Gronk
- Hightower

 

[mgteich]

perhaps and perhaps not

We will get some relief by extending Brady. it is not at all clear that any of the others will sign extensions. In any case, $14M or so is available through restructures (rather than extensions).

They will surely get extra relief after they restructure (extend & convert to upfront signing bonus):

- Tom Brady
- D.McCourty
- Gronk
- Hightower