2011 Patriots Roster Predictions

[mgteich]

WIDE RECEIVER
Someone will be the odd man out. We can only have 2 trainees for the future. As of TODAY, Price would be the man out because Tate and Edelman are our returners.

Let's be REAL about this. The #4, #5, and #6 wide receivers TOTAL one catch per game among them. The top 7 receivers are the top 3 wideouts, 2 tight ends and 2 running backs.

RUNNING BACK
There is no need for five running backs now that we have four youngsters as our top four running backs. Last eyar we needed five because 3 of our running backs were the three OLDEST running backs in the nfl.

SPECIAL TEAMS
I expect that we will keep Morris or Faulk for their special teams skills. That would mean that Slater would go.

Listing him inactive is kind of silly. I just have a hard time seeing them keep 6 WRs. Consider:

1) Welker...Brady's top target. Barring a trade, he keeps his role.
2) Ocho...Hard to see him not starting.
3) Tate...Speed to attack deep zones and a top 5 returner.
4) Edelperson...2011 and especially 2012 Welker insurance and a top 5 returner.
5) Price...Really going to cut him after just one game?

Branch has one year left on his contract, is 32 yo and has had injury concerns for the last 5 years. Contract is favorable but would save over $1M on the cap if he is cut.

I think your point is valid though. I don't believe Belichick or Brady wants to see Branch go. They have 6 legit candidates for 5 spots at a position they have had trouble keeping healthy. If everyone stays healthy, someone will likely have to go.



Similar numbers game...

1) Vereen...Not cutting a top 100 pick before his first game.
2) Ridley...Ditto.
3) Woodhead...Was great being thrown into the fire. Should be better with a full preseason.
4) BJGE...Definition of dependable, but may not be around next year.
5) Morris...Key blocks on just about every big return. Lost multiple steps but fills multiple roles.

At most 5 backs will make the team. Seems like Faulk is #6 unless Vereen can displace BJGE. More likely Faulk and Morris are in camp to train their replacements and serve as injury insurance policies.

 

[Calciumee]

That would mean that Aiken would go.

Aiken? He is long gone

 

[supafly]

Aiken? He is long gone

LOL

ten characters

 

[crowell33]

FWIW, apparently Taylor Price looks really good:


BostonHerald.com - Blogs: Rap Sheet» Blog Archive » How did the Patriots full-pads workout go during Day 4 of camp?

 

[ay-yo]

Here's my attempt at the current 53:

QB (3): Brady / Hoyer / Mallet
RB (5): BJGE / Woody / Vereen / Ridley / Faulk
WR (6): Welk / 85 / Branch / Tate / Edelman / Price
TE (3): Gronk / Hernandez / Smith
OT (3): Solder / Vollmer / Levoir (or hopefully Light and Levoir gets cut)
OG (3): Mankins / Connoly / Cannon
C (2): Koppen / Wendell

Total = 25

DL (6): Wilfork / Fat Al / Brace / Deaderick / Wright / Love
OLB (4): Cunningham / Nink / Moore / Carter
ILB (4): Spikes / Mayo / Guyton / Fletcher
CB (6): Bodden / McC / Dowling / Butler / Arrington / Malcolm Williams
Safety (4): Meri / Chung / Sanders / Barrett

Total = 24

K (1): Ghost
P (1): Mesko
LS (1): Katula
ST (1): Slater

Total = 4

Thoughts:
1. God damn do we have some serious talent on offense.
2. I have 7 DL b/c it's a weak spot and gives us the extra chance that one of
these guys takes the next step. If we could upgrade one of these players
it'd be a lot easier to keep 6.
3. Despite only 1 ST only guy Barrett, Williams and Carter will all play a lot of
ST. They're ability to provide depth elsewhere helps get them on the team.
4. I expect another upgrade on defense with Moore, Love or Pryor being the
most likely casualty. Lawson, Roth or Osi please.

Edit: Somehow forgot Kazcur got cut. Updated that. After seeing Supa's post about BB telling Faulk to rehab I don't see how he doesn't make the team. I find that to be a pretty big quote and am surprised that hasn't been brought up around here. I added Faulk and cut Pryor.

 

[mgteich]

Sorry, I meant Slater. I'll fix the post.

Aiken? He is long gone

 

[deters]

ay-yo,

kaczur was already cut.

 

[Calciumee]

OT (3): Solder / Vollmer / Kazcur (or hopefully Light and Kazcur gets cut)

Kaczur was cut on Friday!

 

[jmt57]

ay-yo,

kaczur was already cut.

Kaczur was cut on Friday!

In ay-yo's defense, technically Kaczur could turn around and re-sign with the Pats - though I seriously doubt that is going to happen. The last few years players like TBC and Ojinnaka have been cut and then re-signed a short time later, for example. And a lot of these roster predictions are including players that are actually not on the roster right now - e.g., Matt Light.

However, I would be very surprised if Kaczur returns to the Patriots.


I also think that some positions such as WR, S and CB may work themselves out due to an injury, rather than Belichick and staff having to come to a difficult decision between Player A and Player B. I'm not trying to be a jinx or anything, but the harsh reality is that season ending injuries do happen in training camp nearly every year to a player that otherwise would have made the final roster.

 

[PatsCanDoIt]

WIDE RECEIVER
Someone will be the odd man out. We can only have 2 trainees for the future. As of TODAY, Price would be the man out because Tate and Edelman are our returners.

Let's be REAL about this. The #4, #5, and #6 wide receivers TOTAL one catch per game among them. The top 7 receivers are the top 3 wideouts, 2 tight ends and 2 running backs.

Returners are expendable. Ellis Hobbs anyone? Edelman is a crappy WR. All he can do well is run screens and return punts. He's exciting every once in a while but BB favors consistency. So, as of TODAY, Price is a better position player, therefore Edelman is out.

The 4-6 WR are called backups for a reason. Tate and Price have the background to fill multiple spots. Edelman isn't even Welker 2.0. He's Antwan Randle El 2.0.

 

[supafly]

2) I've changed my mind about cutting Faulk. Even tho I don't see how it helps the team, I'm pretty convinced BB intends to have him in the locker room this year, in a Crumpler kind of a way. So, even if he never sees the field, he'll make the 53-man. That's bad news for some talented kid who gets bumped off the bottom of the roster. And it might cost Woodhead some touches.

I have found it quite strange now all off-season the number of posters who expected/assumed that Faulk would be gone.

It's amazing how no one ever seems to take Belichick's feelings/past tendencies into account, as much as their 'expert' opinions.

FWIW--This is a direct quote from Kevin Faulk, in regards to his phonecall with the coach, in the week before the lockout:

“Bill called me and told me, ‘Look, Kevin, I want you on my team in 2011,’ and that was motivation enough for me to go out and rehab my butt off and get ready for the season, whenever it may be and whenever it may come,” Faulk said yesterday after signing a new deal and rejoining the team. “So, that was pretty much enough for me.”

With our injuries at RB over the yrs (yes, age does have something to do with it, but how much? It's a hard question to answer) and the multiple carries spread out over a RBBC approach, I never assumed that we wouldn't continue to carry 5 RB's. I think that many felt that the Mallet situation was now going to somehow affect our position at RB due to now carrying 3 at QB, however I never incorporated the 2 together.

The recent signing of Morris, however is a different story, as that threw me for a loop--although I believe there's a good chance that he is gone after TC. No reason to beat up that other backs as much IMO.

 

[Sciz]

Redid my prediction today (in excel though, so I'm not gonna post), and here are some tidbits:

I have 5 RBs, including Faulk. If Woodhead goes down early in the season, then that leaves Green-Ellis or a rookie to step into the 3rd down role. I wouldn't trust Green-Ellis as a receiver or a rookie as a pass-blocker. Hence, I want Faulk there, just as insurance, but very important insurance.

I have Welker getting traded, with Branch, Ocho, and the 3 youngsters sticking. I've explained why enough times on here, so if you have a problem with that, PM me and I'll explain it to you

I have Slater, White, and Brown all gone, replaced on special teams by Arrington (now with fewer defensive responsibilities), Tarpinian, and Barrett.

 

[mgteich]

I have no problem with Price beating out Edelman, if it happens over the next month. BTW, if Edelman were really Welker 2 or Randel El 2, he'd be a lock to make the team. I don't think that he is that good. I just want to know who is returning punts.

Returners are expendable. Ellis Hobbs anyone? Edelman is a crappy WR. All he can do well is run screens and return punts. He's exciting every once in a while but BB favors consistency. So, as of TODAY, Price is a better position player, therefore Edelman is out.

The 4-6 WR are called backups for a reason. Tate and Price have the background to fill multiple spots. Edelman isn't even Welker 2.0. He's Antwan Randle El 2.0.

 

[ay-yo]

FWIW--This is a direct quote from Kevin Faulk, in regards to his phonecall with the coach, in the week before the lockout:

“Bill called me and told me, ‘Look, Kevin, I want you on my team in 2011,’ and that was motivation enough for me to go out and rehab my butt off and get ready for the season, whenever it may be and whenever it may come,” Faulk said yesterday after signing a new deal and rejoining the team. “So, that was pretty much enough for me.”

That's worth quite a bit in my book. I changed my roster projection after hearing it. Why hasn't this ever been brought up in the Faulk discussions? Perhaps I just missed it. Nice find regardless.

 

[supafly]

I have no problem with Price beating out Edelman, if it happens over the next month. BTW, if Edelman were really Welker 2 or Randel El 2, he'd be a lock to make the team. I don't think that he is that good. I just want to know who is returning punts.

I know there's no 'right/wrong' answer to this, so let me start by saying that you do make a compelling argument, and that I see your point entirely.

Personally, I feel as though the WR situation will come down to this: (in order of the possibility)

1.--the moderate possibility of an injury, which will sort it out for us

2.--the moderate possibility that Slater will be gone, as Belichick may feel as though someone else who actually plays more reps could fill the gunner role, this will allow for all 6 WR's

3.--the possibility of only ONE of Tate/Price making the roster, however if that's the case, I'd honestly give the nod to Price. I find it hard to believe that the coaches would cut a high pick who has not received a chance yet, and supposedly has so much potential. There's also the reasoning that if this decision were made, it would be b/c Belichick knows something that we don't, like for instance--Tate and his rumored problems to properly read/react/run routes, and any lack of chemistry/trust with Brady. Therefore, IF it came down to only one of Tate/Price--I would place my bets that price is the one who sticks. That said, I think there's a good chance that they both get a longer look, and that one of them will be inactive though. I think there's a good chance that Price can possibly take over Tate's 24 catch production, and possibly do better.

4.--the possibility that Branch is the one to go. Yes, he looked good at times last yr, but that may have been the 2010 plan, not the 2011 plan. He came in and did his job, but with his potential for injuries, age, and only 1 yr left on the deal, he may not be part of the 'future' here. Unlikely, but he's a candidate for one of those vet cuts that you may not have seen coming.

---------

I don't see any reason to get rid of Edelman, as I feel as though he provides a backup to a very important position to us right now + his versatility and likelihood to continue to add some explosive punt returns. He's here on a cheap, rookie deal, and I also think that we need to see which Edelman he is closer to--the one from 2009, or the one from 2010 (who may have been somewhat negatively affected by the change in offensive philosophy and personnel)

 

[ay-yo]

I think we could make another solid move on the DL. Our locks are Wilfork, Fat Al, Brace and Wright IMO. Pat Williams or Shawn Ellis would be solid additions. Either on would be an upgrade over Deaderick, Love or Pryor. Either one would push Brace for reps as the starting LDE. Imagine a goaline w/ Brace, Pat Williams, Wilfork and Haynesworth That over capacity for some elevators.

 

[supafly]

That's worth quite a bit in my book. I changed my roster projection after hearing it. Why hasn't this ever been brought up in the Faulk discussions? Perhaps I just missed it. Nice find regardless.

I'm not sure if the media had written about it prior to this weekend.

But when you think about it, keeping a guy who has the potential to find the first down marker, move the chains like nobody's business, AND possibly take over the bulk of a game's carries due to extreme circumstance/injuries, cannot ever be a 'bad' thing.

I find it rather interesting that so many would have an unproven college kid with absolutely NO NFL experience whatsoever, immediately beating out one of this teams' greatest all-around (maybe not talent wise, but consistency) players at that particular position--much less TWO college kids...

Ridley is a great pick-up, as is Vareen, but let's see exactly what happens to them as far as injury prevention, 16+ game season body beatings, the potential to KEEP the ball in their hands, blitz pickups, (or do we need to be reminded of the first game of the 08 season again, when Faulk was missing?), the ability to read and change the assignments, and overall ability to even pick up the offense, before we instantly throw out our version of Troy Brown at running back like last week's garbage.

Faulk is absolutely every single thing that Belichick looks for in a player for his team, in my opinion, not to mention the mentoring and teaching that he will likely give the younger RB's. Throw in some important veteran presence and locker room leadership, and this debate is almost amusing to me...

(Now if he is injured still, or cannot physically go, that is another story altogether, but a healthy Kevin Faulk makes this team this year, at least in my opinion. I'm not sure why so many assume that the drafting of players means INSTANT live game reps in crucial situations?? Some of these moves are made towards the future)

 

[Deus Irae]

FWIW--This is a direct quote from Kevin Faulk, in regards to his phonecall with the coach, in the week before the lockout:

“Bill called me and told me, ‘Look, Kevin, I want you on my team in 2011,’ and that was motivation enough for me to go out and rehab my butt off and get ready for the season, whenever it may be and whenever it may come,” Faulk said yesterday after signing a new deal and rejoining the team. “So, that was pretty much enough for me.”.

Just a note from someone who's all for Faulk returning: That discussion apparently took place prior to the draft, so BB may not feel quite the same way now.

 

[supafly]

Just a note from someone who's all for Faulk returning: That discussion apparently took place prior to the draft, so BB may not feel quite the same way now.

Good point Deus, well said. However, you could also argue that Belichick had some idea that he would pick a RB or two also. I'm sure he at least had some clue as to which positions he would want to target, and one would think that RB was one of the more obvious choices. While there are many who link the selections of Ridley/Vareen to the ousting of Faulk, I do not relate the two, at least not in their first yr anyway. If we were talking about a proven NFL player, then I would agree with those who felt that way. It may lessen the chances at Faulk making the squad, due to obvious numbers etc, but I still think that Belichick has certain ideas of players who are already leaning towards making the team--no matter what. I still think that Faulk is one of those guys, at least this yr. While many make him out to be a cold-hearted, business only SOB, I still think that Belichick is smart enough to take it on a case by case basis. I think that he would have to carry a certain admiration for a guy like Kevin Faulk--of course that is my opinion only.

I still think that too many (obviously not you) look at the draft, and immediately start to displace some of the pieces that got us here based solely on that perceived potential. I would like to think that someone as experienced as Belichick would not necessarily do that.

 

[TheComeback]

Edelman is a beast. He's going to be a player in this league. Not going anywhere. And from all the reports, he's made big strides this offseason.

I honestly think he has more athletic ability than Welker, and with experience he can be just as savvy. Edelman is more than just a slot receiver.