Week 15 Clinching Scenarios: NE win + DEN loss = bye

[QuantumMechanic]

New England can clinch a first-round bye with:
1) NE win + DEN loss
2) NE win + CIN loss + DEN tie

You can see the rest of the scenarios for week 15 here:

NFL Playoff Picture - 2015-2016 NFL Standings - CBSSports.com

 

[Rob0729]

The Pats play the Titans and Denver plays in Pittsburgh. And oh, the Bengals won't have Andy Dalton.

I like the Pats' chances of getting a bye.

 

[Haterproof]

I'm definitely not looking past the Titans! I think it's safe to say New England has the bye in a bag! I see us beating the Titans & I see the Steelers stomping the Broncos!

 

[karguy85]

New England can clinch a first-round bye with:
1) NE win + DEN loss
2) NE win + CIN loss + DEN tie

You can see the rest of the scenarios for week 15 here:

NFL Playoff Picture - 2015-2016 NFL Standings - CBSSports.com

This doesn't make sense to me so can someone explain. If the Patriots win on Sunday, and Denver Loses on Sunday both teams could still finish 12-4, and Cincy could potentially win out and finish 13-3. I know this is unlikely, but wouldn't the Patriots be the number 3 seed based on head to head loss to Denver?

 

[QuantumMechanic]

This doesn't make sense to me so can someone explain. If the Patriots win on Sunday, and Denver Loses on Sunday both teams could still finish 12-4, and Cincy could potentially win out and finish 13-3. I know this is unlikely, but wouldn't the Patriots be the number 3 seed based on head to head loss to Denver?

CIN plays DEN. So if CIN wins out DEN cannot, and vice versa.

 

[karguy85]

CIN plays DEN. So if CIN wins out DEN cannot, and vice versa.

Completely forgot they played each other. Thanks!

 

[Hammer of Thor]

This doesn't make sense to me so can someone explain. If the Patriots win on Sunday, and Denver Loses on Sunday both teams could still finish 12-4, and Cincy could potentially win out and finish 13-3. I know this is unlikely, but wouldn't the Patriots be the number 3 seed based on head to head loss to Denver?

Denver and Cincy play each other in week 16. So neither can win out - only one not the other.

Edit: slow on the uptake, question's already been answered.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

I'm still trying to figure out how the hell MIA losing last night gave the division to NE.

Both NYJ and NE will play MIA twice. NYJ has already beaten MIA twice. Both NE and NYJ have beaten NYG (who MIA lost to).

If NE loses out and NYJ wins out both teams finish at 11-5 and 4-2 in the division. The next tiebreaker is common games. MIA's loss is irrelevant to that tiebreaker so that can't be the tiebreaker that would matter. Next is conference record and in this scenario both would be 8-4. Next comes SoV, but since both teams play MIA twice, why would that matter?

 

[QuantumMechanic]

Oh! I think I have it now...

If NYJ wins out and NE loses out, NYJ will be 2-0 vs. MIA and NE will be 1-1 vs. MIA. So the SoV tiebreaker (all the previous tiebreakers result in ties) will count MIA twice for NYJ but only once for NE and so if MIA's record is bad enough (i.e. below what the non-MIA SoV would be), counting MIA twice for NYJ would hurt their SoV more than it'd hurt NE's. I guess that MIA loss made MIA bad enough to do just that.

Edit:
Found this in the comments on the CBSSports NFL Playoff Picture page

It has to do with the Strength-of-victory tiebreaker between NYJ and NE. NYJ have defeated MIA twice, and NE has only defeated MIA once this season, and thus, the MIA loss hurts NYJ more than NE. Specifically, because of other results from this week (that also affected Strength of Victory), this one extra nudged pushed the best-case scenario for NYJ to tied Strength of Victory, and NE already has Strength of Schedule clinched, so the MIA loss clinches the division for NE.

 

[fourhour]

Oh! I think I have it now...

If NYJ wins out and NE loses out, NYJ will be 2-0 vs. MIA and NE will be 1-1 vs. MIA. So the SoV tiebreaker (all the previous tiebreakers result in ties) will count MIA twice for NYJ but only once for NE and so if MIA's record is bad enough (i.e. below what the non-MIA SoV would be), counting MIA twice for NYJ would hurt their SoV more than it'd hurt NE's. I guess that MIA loss made MIA bad enough to do just that.

Edit:
Found this in the comments on the CBSSports NFL Playoff Picture page

I asked earlier today and here is how it was explained to me:

 

[willard]

Had no idea the division title was riding on last nights game.

Would really be stoked to see the Donkeys not make the playoffs. Would be even better if the disaster was laid at Payaton's feet.

The bye after this week would be nice. The difference between 1 and 2 seed is much less than the difference between playing the bye week or resting and prepping.

 

[Ross12]

Oh! I think I have it now...

If NYJ wins out and NE loses out, NYJ will be 2-0 vs. MIA and NE will be 1-1 vs. MIA. So the SoV tiebreaker (all the previous tiebreakers result in ties) will count MIA twice for NYJ but only once for NE and so if MIA's record is bad enough (i.e. below what the non-MIA SoV would be), counting MIA twice for NYJ would hurt their SoV more than it'd hurt NE's. I guess that MIA loss made MIA bad enough to do just that.

Edit:
Found this in the comments on the CBSSports NFL Playoff Picture page

Kessler is that you?

 

[fnordcircle]

I'm definitely not looking past the Titans! I think it's safe to say New England has the bye in a bag!

I love that you wrote those two sentences one after the other.

 

[JMC00]

Oh! I think I have it now...

If NYJ wins out and NE loses out, NYJ will be 2-0 vs. MIA and NE will be 1-1 vs. MIA. So the SoV tiebreaker (all the previous tiebreakers result in ties) will count MIA twice for NYJ but only once for NE and so if MIA's record is bad enough (i.e. below what the non-MIA SoV would be), counting MIA twice for NYJ would hurt their SoV more than it'd hurt NE's. I guess that MIA loss made MIA bad enough to do just that.

Edit:
Found this in the comments on the CBSSports NFL Playoff Picture page

That and

Pats vs jills and Houston 3-0

jests vs jills and Houston 0-2 with 1 to play against buffalo

 

[BTTA]

If this happens, then I say they should announce that they are skipping the Jets game. Have Belichick do a press conference and simply say, "We just don't need to make that trip. We'll get rested and go to Miami." When asked about it, simply say, "We are on to Miami." Refuse to answer any questions except about the Dolphins game. Have him keep the famous Belichick face throughout the press conference. Then watch the NFL office have a panic attack.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

That and

Pats vs jills and Houston 3-0

jests vs jills and Houston 0-2 with 1 to play against buffalo

Why would those specific opponents matter? The common-games tiebreaker includes all common games, and if NE lost out and NYJ won out they would be tied in common games.