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Interesting article from the website that was made famous by its accuracy in predicting election results. Has been doing a lot of statistical analysis of NFL football for the last year or two.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-patriots-really-do-own-the-second-half-of-the-season/
It’s no secret the New England Patriots have been the NFL’s dominant franchise over the past decade-plus. In addition to three Super Bowl victories and five AFC championships, New England has21 more regular-season wins than any other team since 2001, when Tom Brady became the team’s starting quarterback. The Patriots also have by far the league’s top point differential over that same span.
... Based on the pregame Elo ratings of the Patriots and their opponents — which theoretically take into account how much talent each team possesses — one would have expected the Patriots to win about 147 of their 218 regular-season games over the 2001-2014 span. Instead, they’ve won 166, a 19-game gap that represents the biggest overachievement in the league.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-patriots-really-do-own-the-second-half-of-the-season/
It’s no secret the New England Patriots have been the NFL’s dominant franchise over the past decade-plus. In addition to three Super Bowl victories and five AFC championships, New England has21 more regular-season wins than any other team since 2001, when Tom Brady became the team’s starting quarterback. The Patriots also have by far the league’s top point differential over that same span.
... Based on the pregame Elo ratings of the Patriots and their opponents — which theoretically take into account how much talent each team possesses — one would have expected the Patriots to win about 147 of their 218 regular-season games over the 2001-2014 span. Instead, they’ve won 166, a 19-game gap that represents the biggest overachievement in the league.
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