Hate to burst your bubble; especially if it is a lovely bubble.
Let's use some ball park numbers. What is the US population 6,000,000?
Let's say 300 million are actively NFL fans. (I think I'm over estimating, but let's say I'm including NBA fans who are casual NFL fans, etc.)
1/32 of that is Patriot fans. That is 3 million let's assume about 50% rate of people going along with the boycott. (Primarily Red Sox fans, etc.)
1.5 million sounds huge, but 1.5 is 0.5% of the 300 million.
If you boycott, do it because it makes you feel better, but expect to have about 0.5% effect.
The US population is about 300,000,000. Your above breakdown assumes that you can produce 300 football fans for every 6 people, but I believe you meant to say that out of every two people one is an active NFL fan (if you believe there are 600,000,000 people in the US.)
Okay I agree with you Castle but man your stats and math are driving me nuts.
Using the real numbers -
300 million people total
The Super Bowl drew about 93 million people last year
http://gonewengland.about.com/od/bostonsports/a/blpatsbasics08.htm
I personally would put the even casual follower of the NFL at about half that, or 46-47 million people. The people who actual talk about the game at the water cooler the next morning might be half of
that number, or 23 million. I think at least in very rough terms that's the real number of "football fans" out there. You could go at it other ways - see how many people watch 2 or more games every sunday, for example. But I think that gets us in the neighborhood.
I also think you can say more than 1/32 are Patriots fans. For one thing, small market teams like Minnesota, buffalo, and Arizona don't get a proportional draw of the market just based on the size of their home base (Even if New York skews the curve singlehandedly.) For another thing, NE has a decent-sized national following. The Raiders and Cowboys, if the jerseys and caps you still see when you're out and about are anything to judge by, are still the kings of this phenomenon, but I think the Pats are getting to the middle tier -- like the 9ers etc. All that to say, you have a couple more math errors in your equation, but we still end up with a million or two going along with the boycott, if every "real" fan does it.
At 3 million, you get 1% of the total market of 300 million. But what's the possible market for mens' shaving products, for instance? probably 100 million, tops (kids don't shave, remember.) How about the markets for upscale luxury items -- cars for instance -- among Bostonians versus the rest of the country? Interesting thing about a relatively high cost of living: your luxury items are comparatively less "luxurious" when you have to crack six figures just to make the mortgage on your condo -- the old Yuppie phenomenon: you live in a space smaller than a single-wide trailer, and you drive an imported luxury car. Back to the caps, jerseys, etc... I think the Pats are still among the top "valued" franchises. That is a good estimate of what fans have spent on a team -- and, you would assume, what they can afford to spend on product in general.
Anyway, those market dynamics come into play as well. And you know, I think IF you had EVERY SINGLE Boston sports fan participating, not only would you have a slight economic impact, you would also have a significant media presence.
The thing is, you would not get that participation. You would get a fraction of that, in a boycott strategy. Cameragate's a media phenomenon, driven by media events. Tuesday the 13th will be one such event. The Walsh tapes handoff was another. As each event hits, the story is in the news for a while, then it goes away again. Out of sight out of mind.
That's why I favor getting more of the right info into the hands of the talking heads, so ESPN-style hate speech can be countered with accurate and proportional factual reporting.
As much as we dislike a media outlet, and as much as it is our right to boycott, the injustice done is to our sports allegiance, not a race, gender or ethnic group. We're not going to be marching on Selma here, and we should all recognize the difference. Smack talk at the bar or the water cooler isn't the same thing as redlining, lunch counter segregation, or even glass cielings. At last resort, we can choose not to participate in the frenzy, not taking up the cause every time we read or hear an ignorant "cheater" comment. You can't do that when the issue is having enough gas for your car, enough food to eat, or the right to use the same bathroom or join the same club as the next guy.
So anyway if you can get such a boycott to work, count me in. I just agree with Castle that it would be ineffectual.
I'm a big fan of finding the appropriate recourse and pursuing it, and if I thought a boycott would work, I would at least spew a bunch of enthusiasm about it on a board... I just don't see it happening.
PFnV
