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I originally posted this on reddit, but figured I'd share it here, too.
First off, let me take one thing off the table: the Patriots are not going to trade or cut Campbell. Cutting him means taking a $26M dead money hit, and even trading him would be $11M. Given they have $42M in cap space right now, that's not happening unless Campbell robs a bank or something.
Second, they have to take a holistic look at the line. The combination of Campbell/Wilson/Bradbury was good enough for the first three months of the season, but the version we got after Campbell and Wilson's injuries wasn't good enough for the top defenses that will stand in their path in the playoffs. But no matter how badly they played in the Super Bowl, Vrabel et al. can't simply assume "this is what they are and will always be."
Third, the biggest issue they face is teasing out exactly why their play declined over the last few weeks. As I see it, there are at least five factors that could have contributed here. In no particular order:
Vrabel et al. are going to have to make a decision on how to address the line. They have finite resources ($40M in cap space, #31 as their highest draft pick) and needs that go beyond the left side of the line (e.g., improving the pass rush and the pass catching group). The FAs also look less like a "Who's Who" and more like a "Who's That?".
One possibility (which I don't think will happen) is that they basically say "Time and experience will fix everything." Those should help, but I don't think they're enough.
I also don't think they're going to go into this offseason with the expectation that Campbell will move inside, given that I don't think they ever seriously had Campbell working at G at any point in the season. It could happen, but right now they don't even have a backup LT signed for next year (Lowe is a FA).
If I had to put money on what will happen, I think they will try to move Wilson to center (or have him backup Bradbury this year and take over in 2027), and focus on the LG position. In terms of resources, I think that's where they can get the most bang for their buck: it'd give Campbell veteran help and put Wilson at his best position. Maybe Ben Brown is that guy, but there are 8 guards in the top 100 of PFF's FA rankings.
First off, let me take one thing off the table: the Patriots are not going to trade or cut Campbell. Cutting him means taking a $26M dead money hit, and even trading him would be $11M. Given they have $42M in cap space right now, that's not happening unless Campbell robs a bank or something.
Second, they have to take a holistic look at the line. The combination of Campbell/Wilson/Bradbury was good enough for the first three months of the season, but the version we got after Campbell and Wilson's injuries wasn't good enough for the top defenses that will stand in their path in the playoffs. But no matter how badly they played in the Super Bowl, Vrabel et al. can't simply assume "this is what they are and will always be."
Third, the biggest issue they face is teasing out exactly why their play declined over the last few weeks. As I see it, there are at least five factors that could have contributed here. In no particular order:
- The rookie wall. Most college teams have essentially three months of games + a bowl game a month later. The NFL season is four months of games + four more games over the next five weeks. Even with the games Campbell and Wilson missed, it's still a grind, especially for players playing nearly every snap. [And Campbell just turned 22 a month ago, so his body isn't even finished developing yet; Wilson will turn 23 this offseason.
- Their injuries. There's a difference between being a full participant in practice and being 100% healthy. As Vrabel said, almost no one is 100% by season's end, but I don't think Campbell or Wilson were at the same point they were before their injuries.
- The tandem. Not only were Campbell and Wilson both dealing with those two issues, but they were also playing next to each other (plus Wilson was out of position). As I noted yesterday in another thread, not all OL combos work. They couldn't put Onwenu at LG in 2021 with Wynn playing LT, for example.
- Technique issues. As an example, an All-Pro RT, Willie Anderson, gave his two cents on what Campbell needs to do this offseason in this post. The good news here is technique issues should be addressable. There hasn't been as much coverage of what Wilson can do, although I imagine it would be similar.
- Physical limitations. This has been litigated ad nauseam here, especially for Campbell.
Vrabel et al. are going to have to make a decision on how to address the line. They have finite resources ($40M in cap space, #31 as their highest draft pick) and needs that go beyond the left side of the line (e.g., improving the pass rush and the pass catching group). The FAs also look less like a "Who's Who" and more like a "Who's That?".
One possibility (which I don't think will happen) is that they basically say "Time and experience will fix everything." Those should help, but I don't think they're enough.
I also don't think they're going to go into this offseason with the expectation that Campbell will move inside, given that I don't think they ever seriously had Campbell working at G at any point in the season. It could happen, but right now they don't even have a backup LT signed for next year (Lowe is a FA).
If I had to put money on what will happen, I think they will try to move Wilson to center (or have him backup Bradbury this year and take over in 2027), and focus on the LG position. In terms of resources, I think that's where they can get the most bang for their buck: it'd give Campbell veteran help and put Wilson at his best position. Maybe Ben Brown is that guy, but there are 8 guards in the top 100 of PFF's FA rankings.
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