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Content Post Idle thoughts: the narrative edition. The lull before the storm.

This has an opening post with good commentary and information, which we definitely recommend reading.
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I believe the spread should be 7-9.
The onlly reason it’s not is because a lot of credit is being given to the Pats defense
I will be tuning out all the media noise and hype and just wait to see what happens next weekend

Pressure is all on SEA
Brady would offset the Patriots lack of top end offensive threats. There was no deficit too big. There was never a concern about him turning the ball over. Betting against him was crazy. Maye is still relatively unproven in addition to being young. He has turned it over alot. Vrabel is a great HC. But he still isn't Bill. And he is new to the SB as a HC. Seattle has looked like the better team and roster wise are better.

The last SB where most experts picked one team over another was Bengals/Rams. I think there was an even bigger gap between those teams than Patriots/Seahawks. Yet, the Bengals were a 4th down stop away from winning.
 
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If he has time to throw. Vrabel needs to ensure an extra guy(s) is helping out the OL on every play. Letting guys figure it out on their own, or relying on a second year QB to get it out quicker, should not be an option.

I mentioned Vrabel because McDaniels has not been doing this. Just seems like such an easy decision to make.
He’ll have time. Seattle’s DTs are very good, but we’ve already faced three elite defenses in a row. It won’t be anything new; and this is the weakest one in terms of pure pass rushers. There are no Anderson’s, Hunter’s, Bonitto’s, Oweh’s etc..Good weather, health, vs a scheme he’s (and McDaniels) seen before? AND with everyone doubting the offense??? Good luck, Seattle..
 
I agree with PFK's post entirely. Three things stand out to me:

1) Seattle should be favored. They have a better roster top to bottom, and a better D (though by a slighter margin than some think). The Pats' offense has not been stellar in the post season, nor has Drake's play. And so on. Five or six points seems about right to me.

2) It appears to me that Campbell is a serviceable-verging-on-good LT. I suppose you might hope for more from a player drafted so high, but in the draft you can only draft the players who are actually available when you make your pick. The draft ain't a Walmart. It's a weird sort of store where they only have one of each item, and the actual quality of each item is something of a mystery. If the team in the end feels they need something better at LT, I suppose they can have another go at it in the upcoming draft and move Campbell to guard. I wouldn't see that as some sort of pantytwisting catastrophe. A good team needs guards too. I would not take that course, however. I think Campbell has certainly proven worthy, by a healthy margin, of another year's development at LT.a nd a off-season to recover fully from his injury. Besides, he seems like a really decent guy and teammate, which I think matters.

3) To me, the year is already a rare success. No one expected this kind of improvement in what is essentially the first year (again) of a rebuild. Whining about the season if we lose in the SB seems like a foolish ingrate move to me. If they win, that's great. If they lose, we all ought to applaud their remarkable success over the course of the entire season.

The derision and dismissal of the Pat's accomplishments this year on the part of the national press is ugly and asinine. **** them. Whiny, jealous punks, the lot of 'em.
 
He’ll have time. Seattle’s DTs are very good, but we’ve already faced three elite defenses in a row. It won’t be anything new; and this is the weakest one in terms of pure pass rushers. There are no Anderson’s, Hunter’s, Bonitto’s, Oweh’s etc..Good weather, health, vs a scheme he’s (and McDaniels) seen before? AND with everyone doubting the offense??? Good luck, Seattle..
It's not about doubting the receivers or QB. It's about doubting the OL. Seattle might not be the Texans in terms of a fast, nasty and elite defense. But they are good enough to get pressure and force turnovers.

Honest question. When was the last time the Patriots had a OL that was this "weak" going into a SB? It seemed Brady always had top 10 OL's. I re-watched SB 38 the other day. After the game it was mentioned Brady was not sacked once in three postseason games.
 
Had it occurred in great weather, I would be more optimistic.

How many rushers would be able to get to a QB when they are slipping and sliding everywhere? I don't even know if they were able to see at certain points.

A fair point for the last quarter and change, but I'm not sure how much Maye even dropped back to pass by that point. We still have nearly three quarters of data, including that super long drive to start the third that ended in the field goal. Based on that, I would assume the data set has diagnostic value.
 
Good points and great post to start thread.
Campbell struggled vs top pass rusher with length. Seattle strength on rush is interior. Campbell has a good matchup like he had with Bonito.
There will always be 3 to 4 guys in the league that Campbell will struggle against, but he’ll be really good against everybody else.

The median narrative would make you think the Seahawks should be favored by 7 or more but the smart money actually betting knows these teams are much closer than what the media portrays

The one thing I worried about about Drake coming from North Carolina is playing in the cold. I think you’ll get better as the years go on. For example, he didn’t wear sleeves and mention afterward he should’ve worn sleeves. He’s learning what works in the cold for him.
Fortunately the Super Bowl’s played in a warm weather site this year. Just a matter of Drake staying calm and not being too hyped up.
He’s the X factor, he can carry the team to victory by himself.
My biggest concern on offense is whether receivers can get open vs man
 
Since we have done this so often this century, I think we have gotten pretty good with handling this extra week of what amounts to "story creation time" by the media in order to fill time and create the content necessary to get us past this extra week of nothing in order to get to game week, when we essentially get to rehash the same stories all over again. I'm here to do 2 things. First to discuss what we are hearing so far, and second report on what I found after I went through the AFCCG again to find out about one of key narratives that is taking shape, "what are the Pats going to do in order to protect Will Campbell"


Initially, I didn't notice anything overtly negative about Campbell's play while I was watching the game, yet you couldn't fail to notice that there were a lot of sacks (5).
So, I went back last night and rewatched all the game again watching every play Campbell had and graded them. Well, for the first half I did, then I got bored and the stopped when the visibility got bad midway into the 3rd quarter. Bottom line here's what I got.

Campbell had one missed block, in the first half, a missed cut block that resulted in a hurry, but didn't really affect the pass, He also got the false start flag. The rest of the time on pass blocks, he either stuffed his guy, or ran him by the QB, In the 2nd half it was more of the same, though I doubt we threw the ball 10 times that half. I didn't see Campbell screw up but once, when he locked on a guy who didn't come while another guy came and looked like he thought he'd be covered ny someone else and it ended up with Maye being hurried, but that was the only play.

Bottom Line Campbell played most of the game against Bonito, and Bonito wound up without recording a single stat. O Sacks, O hurries, O hits, O Tackles and yet it is Campbell who left the game with the narrative that HE still remains the weak link on the Pats OL. What I saw was a young OLman who was MARKEDLY better than the previous week and likely to be better yet again February 8th. Like us, Seattle's defensive strength is its DT's. Their edge guys are good, but nothing like the threats Campbell has been facing the last 3 weeks, I'll be interested to see how PFF and the other graders marked this game.

I also marked 4 passes Maye threw as being just plain misses, usually they were all short or wide of the mark None of these passes were throws that were made in haste or in duress, they were just bad throws. So, it was not a good game throwing wise for Maye, and granted not very good conditions especially in the 2nd half, But it was a good day for Maye situationally. We won that game because he had ZERO turnovers, ZERO fumbles and ZERO interceptions. In fact, given what we have seen in the previous 2 games, it was amazing that there were only 2 TO's over the entire game given the conditions. That's a credit to both teams. It was clear as we entered into the 4th quarter and we were going INTO the wind and unlikely to score, Josh and Mike were doing NOTHING remotely close to something that could lose them the ball game

BTW- There was no question in my mind, that that FG was going to be good, if it hadn't been tipped at the LOS.

2, Seattle is the heavy favorite - There are some people here who are taking umbrage when media outlets like ESPN are going 11-0 in picking the Seahawks. I ask WHY? If we are being honest, SHOULDN'T they be picking them, given what we've seen the last 3 weeks. The offense looks positively sporadic. The "MVP" QB looks like a clueless 23 year old who can barely complete half his passes, while our opponent is fielding an offense that puts up 30+ points in each game and a QB coming off a legacy changing playoff game. How could you NOT pick the Seahawks!

Well, my friends, it's time to wrap yourselves around your full Rodney Harrison underdog mentality and EMBRACE this narrative. Do not bark up against it like a rabid little Chihuahua. Be patient and just take it in. Don't buck the tide, grasshopper. I'm actually surprised that point spread isn't approaching double digits. Go fight about Bill getting screwed by the HOF, or what the Bills are doing to themselves. These next ten days should be about us finding the stories beneath the stories like that clip of the weaknesses of the Seatle interior OL or the like and filing them away so we can begin to explain, on Feb 9th, how they could have been so wrong this game. Help them understand just what they missed that put them on the wrong side again. Now THAT will be sweet.

3. These next 10 days are going to be ALL about the "cute little story" that the NE Patriots were this year, BUT... Accolades aplenty for Mike, Josh, and Drake, BUT...
NE fans are back after and ANGONIZING 7 year wait (how could they stand it that long), BUT... This is what the next 10 days are going to be filled with. Get used to it. In the meantime the world will still turn and we all have to hope someone has their phone with them the next time the party in power decides to brand someone a "domestic terrorist" because without those clips we might have believed Trump's "truth" But I'm not worried, I've been told by Fox, that they are going to investigate now, just don't ask them who is doing it and why you should believe them after they are done. AAAAND THAT just slipped out. Sorry.
I'm glad to hear your analysis of Campbell as it affirms what I saw on my rewatch

Campbell looked like he was getting moved all over the field, and the last few games has been showcased on replays with edge rushers getting around him.

After rewatching I come away VERY impressed with Bonito and the other great edge rushers we've seen have decent games against us.

Which is what makes Campbell's "bend but don't break (for the most part)" that much more impressive. And yes, Maye has gotten hit and rushed too much overall - but he's generally been able to get the throw off.

The OL doesn't have to be perfect for the team to win - and I have confidence that our D can do enough to give the O a chance to do what it needs to do. But this game will really test LG and the interior, so they better be up for the challenge.

The pundits will never give this team the credit they're due.

Even if they win, the haters will point out that each and every team the Patriots beat this season lost to a team with one of the weakest strength of schedules in the league
 
It's not about doubting the receivers or QB. It's about doubting the OL. Seattle might not be the Texans in terms of a fast, nasty and elite defense. But they are good enough to get pressure and force turnovers.

Honest question. When was the last time the Patriots had a OL that was this "weak" going into a SB? It seemed Brady always had top 10 OL's. I re-watched SB 38 the other day. After the game it was mentioned Brady was not sacked once in three postseason games.
Any team in the super bowl is good enough to get pressure & force turnovers. That’s why they’re there, dude….However, Seattle’s defense is being overrated. That doesn’t mean that they’re not very good, or not the #1 in PPG allowed. They are, but it’s not some vaunted “2013” Seattle D. At all. Honestly, Houston’s the best defense in the league. It’s the only one that even gave me pause & Maye gave them three TDs; with all three being elite diagnostics/plays/ball placement. Seattle runs zone defense mostly; Maye will shred zone, as he has all season.

As far as Brady’s OLs throughout the years, he’s had some very good ones & some not so good ones. The thing is, Brady was the ultimate x-factor because he got rid of the ball at a ridiculously fast rate. So, it wasn’t so much Brady having elite OLs, as it was Brady getting the ball out quickly. Also, those OLs were coached & molded by the greatest OL coach in NFL history; Dante Scarrnecchia.
 
I agree with PFK's post entirely. Three things stand out to me:

1) Seattle should be favored. They have a better roster top to bottom, and a better D (though by a slighter margin than some think). The Pats' offense has not been stellar in the post season, nor has Drake's play. And so on. Five or six points seems about right to me.

2) It appears to me that Campbell is a serviceable-verging-on-good LT. I suppose you might hope for more from a player drafted so high, but in the draft you can only draft the players who are actually available when you make your pick. The draft ain't a Walmart. It's a weird sort of store where they only have one of each item, and the actual quality of each item is something of a mystery. If the team in the end feels they need something better at LT, I suppose they can have another go at it in the upcoming draft and move Campbell to guard. I wouldn't see that as some sort of pantytwisting catastrophe. A good team needs guards too. I would not take that course, however. I think Campbell has certainly proven worthy, by a healthy margin, of another year's development at LT.a nd a off-season to recover fully from his injury. Besides, he seems like a really decent guy and teammate, which I think matters.

3) To me, the year is already a rare success. No one expected this kind of improvement in what is essentially the first year (again) of a rebuild. Whining about the season if we lose in the SB seems like a foolish ingrate move to me. If they win, that's great. If they lose, we all ought to applaud their remarkable success over the course of the entire season.

The derision and dismissal of the Pat's accomplishments this year on the part of the national press is ugly and asinine. **** them. Whiny, jealous punks, the lot of 'em.
Just a couple of things when it comes to Campbell. He's coming off an injury, and he's having to deal with Jared Wilson next to him, who's been objectively terrible since he started wearing the jumbo helmet, so he has to account for him as well.

Campbell's been comparable to Matt Light in his rookie year, and in fact he's had a lot more of a challenging run than Light had in 2001 (And Light had veterans/all-pros next to him in Compton and Woody)
 
Drake Maye should have plenty left in the tank, assuming good outcomes on his "questionable" shoulder.

But I'd really love Josh Dobbs to shred 'em, for every whiner complaining that really Mahomes and Jackson and whoever being out was just another example of the massive luck accruing to YOUR New England Patriots this season.

Good to see our resident surrender monkeys and our esteemed but not necessarily admitted guests out in force.
 
If he has time to throw. Vrabel needs to ensure an extra guy(s) is helping out the OL on every play. Letting guys figure it out on their own, or relying on a second year QB to get it out quicker, should not be an option.

I mentioned Vrabel because McDaniels has not been doing this. Just seems like such an easy decision to make.
OK, Johnny one note. Go and collect your participation trophy. How many times have you shat on Josh's head in this and EVERY other thread. I think we all collectively get it. Time to trot out some new material... PLEASE.
 
I believe the spread should be 7-9.
The onlly reason it’s not is because a lot of credit is being given to the Pats defense
I will be tuning out all the media noise and hype and just wait to see what happens next weekend

Pressure is all on SEA
This can’t be understated. Seattle is just as inexperienced in SB as we are but the narrative is “of course Seattle should win”. That’s real pressure.
 
Good points and great post to start thread.
Campbell struggled vs top pass rusher with length. Seattle strength on rush is interior. Campbell has a good matchup like he had with Bonito.
There will always be 3 to 4 guys in the league that Campbell will struggle against, but he’ll be really good against everybody else.

The median narrative would make you think the Seahawks should be favored by 7 or more but the smart money actually betting knows these teams are much closer than what the media portrays

The one thing I worried about about Drake coming from North Carolina is playing in the cold. I think you’ll get better as the years go on. For example, he didn’t wear sleeves and mention afterward he should’ve worn sleeves. He’s learning what works in the cold for him.
Fortunately the Super Bowl’s played in a warm weather site this year. Just a matter of Drake staying calm and not being too hyped up.
He’s the X factor, he can carry the team to victory by himself.
My biggest concern on offense is whether receivers can get open vs man
They have struggled to do this consistently. Might need to scheme guys open or find a different approach. They are lacking that Edelman type of guy.
 
Honest question. When was the last time the Patriots had a OL that was this "weak" going into a SB? It seemed Brady always had top 10 OL's. I re-watched SB 38 the other day. After the game it was mentioned Brady was not sacked once in three postseason games.
Brady mostly had mediocre lines his entire career. He routinely made them look better than they really were. 2007 (for most of the season), 2011 and 2018 were their top 3 best lines.

The game you mentioned, the Pats used a lot of trickery vs those types of rushers like cut blocking, moving pockets and quick throws.
 
I agree with PFK's post entirely. Three things stand out to me:

1) Seattle should be favored. They have a better roster top to bottom, and a better D (though by a slighter margin than some think). The Pats' offense has not been stellar in the post season, nor has Drake's play. And so on. Five or six points seems about right to me.

2) It appears to me that Campbell is a serviceable-verging-on-good LT. I suppose you might hope for more from a player drafted so high, but in the draft you can only draft the players who are actually available when you make your pick. The draft ain't a Walmart. It's a weird sort of store where they only have one of each item, and the actual quality of each item is something of a mystery. If the team in the end feels they need something better at LT, I suppose they can have another go at it in the upcoming draft and move Campbell to guard. I wouldn't see that as some sort of pantytwisting catastrophe. A good team needs guards too. I would not take that course, however. I think Campbell has certainly proven worthy, by a healthy margin, of another year's development at LT.a nd a off-season to recover fully from his injury. Besides, he seems like a really decent guy and teammate, which I think matters.

3) To me, the year is already a rare success. No one expected this kind of improvement in what is essentially the first year (again) of a rebuild. Whining about the season if we lose in the SB seems like a foolish ingrate move to me. If they win, that's great. If they lose, we all ought to applaud their remarkable success over the course of the entire season.

The derision and dismissal of the Pat's accomplishments this year on the part of the national press is ugly and asinine. **** them. Whiny, jealous punks, the lot of 'em.
Any team in the super bowl is good enough to get pressure & force turnovers. That’s why they’re there, dude….However, Seattle’s defense is being overrated. That doesn’t mean that they’re not very good, or not the #1 in PPG allowed. They are, but it’s not some vaunted “2013” Seattle D. At all. Honestly, Houston’s the best defense in the league. It’s the only one that even gave me pause & Maye gave them three TDs; with all three being elite diagnostics/plays/ball placement. Seattle runs zone defense mostly; Maye will shred zone, as he has all season.

As far as Brady’s OLs throughout the years, he’s had some very good ones & some not so good ones. The thing is, Brady was the ultimate x-factor because he got rid of the ball at a ridiculously fast rate. So, it wasn’t so much Brady having elite OLs, as it was Brady getting the ball out quickly. Also, those OLs were coached & molded by the greatest OL coach in NFL history; Dante Scarrnecchia.
 
Had it occurred in great weather, I would be more optimistic.

How many rushers would be able to get to a QB when they are slipping and sliding everywhere? I don't even know if they were able to see at certain points.

Then explain why Bonito's numbers were exactly the same in both halves? 0 for everything.
 
Some additional advantages are that there is tape on how to attack a taltented Seahawk defense. The Rams hung 37, 19 and 25 points against that vaunted defense. That is 27ppg and a very good not great Pats D is going to hold them to much less then that.

You want to know where John Streicher worked last year, for the Rams. You think he calls a recently defeated Rams coach and say "how did you attack them this year"? The film is out there for how to do it.

No Seahawks 12th Man to provide crowd noise and enhance the D. This will be a low scoring rock fight. SB are won not usually by the best players on the team but by contributing players and if I had to take a roster 1-48, I would take the Pats. They have to execute and avoid turnovers but I see 4 maybe 5 high level Seahawk players, that is it. You have to give the edge in coaching to Pats. When you look at the film the Seahawks do what they do and don't change alot. They stay with what they are good at and that is how you beat them. Make them do what they are not good at.

Prediction: It is a rock fight between two good Def, a couple of big plays decide it. Coaching is the edge and the more prepared Pats win 20-17.
The Rams scored that much because they have a veteran QB. There's no way Maye is retaining that much knowledge or making that many reads. It's too early for him to understand that much game film and slow it down in his mind, on the field.
 
The Rams scored that much because they have a veteran QB. There's no way Maye is retaining that much knowledge or making that many reads. It's too early for him to understand that much game film and slow it down in his mind, on the field.
From your post you either did not watch any of his play this season, or you had zero comprehension of what you were seeing.
 
From your post you either did not watch any of his play this season, or you had zero comprehension of what you were seeing.
Ok. You're getting a tad nasty lol. Just sports talk. Zero comprehension is a bit strong and silly.
No. The team succeeded on the whole but nothing I said can be disputed. Maye has basically zero on the scale of knowledge and experience compared to a majority of QBs. He's riding a team succeeding wave and making less mistakes at the right time to get this far. I'm not saying anything wrong or false. im not saying they won't win or that he's bad. Simply the truth. He has very little experience and that can count against you in a freaking super bowl. It's a experiential fact of life and football.

You need to be unbiased and consider something. Would he have done better in better weather last week and the week before. Or did the weather help the Pats vs the other team.
Maybe, maybe not.

One week to see
 
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