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Content Post Idle thoughts: the narrative edition. The lull before the storm.

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patfanken

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Since we have done this so often this century, I think we have gotten pretty good with handling this extra week of what amounts to "story creation time" by the media in order to fill time and create the content necessary to get us past this extra week of nothing in order to get to game week, when we essentially get to rehash the same stories all over again. I'm here to do 2 things. First to discuss what we are hearing so far, and second report on what I found after I went through the AFCCG again to find out about one of key narratives that is taking shape, "what are the Pats going to do in order to protect Will Campbell"


Initially, I didn't notice anything overtly negative about Campbell's play while I was watching the game, yet you couldn't fail to notice that there were a lot of sacks (5).
So, I went back last night and rewatched all the game again watching every play Campbell had and graded them. Well, for the first half I did, then I got bored and the stopped when the visibility got bad midway into the 3rd quarter. Bottom line here's what I got.

Campbell had one missed block, in the first half, a missed cut block that resulted in a hurry, but didn't really affect the pass, He also got the false start flag. The rest of the time on pass blocks, he either stuffed his guy, or ran him by the QB, In the 2nd half it was more of the same, though I doubt we threw the ball 10 times that half. I didn't see Campbell screw up but once, when he locked on a guy who didn't come while another guy came and looked like he thought he'd be covered ny someone else and it ended up with Maye being hurried, but that was the only play.

Bottom Line Campbell played most of the game against Bonito, and Bonito wound up without recording a single stat. O Sacks, O hurries, O hits, O Tackles and yet it is Campbell who left the game with the narrative that HE still remains the weak link on the Pats OL. What I saw was a young OLman who was MARKEDLY better than the previous week and likely to be better yet again February 8th. Like us, Seattle's defensive strength is its DT's. Their edge guys are good, but nothing like the threats Campbell has been facing the last 3 weeks, I'll be interested to see how PFF and the other graders marked this game.

I also marked 4 passes Maye threw as being just plain misses, usually they were all short or wide of the mark None of these passes were throws that were made in haste or in duress, they were just bad throws. So, it was not a good game throwing wise for Maye, and granted not very good conditions especially in the 2nd half, But it was a good day for Maye situationally. We won that game because he had ZERO turnovers, ZERO fumbles and ZERO interceptions. In fact, given what we have seen in the previous 2 games, it was amazing that there were only 2 TO's over the entire game given the conditions. That's a credit to both teams. It was clear as we entered into the 4th quarter and we were going INTO the wind and unlikely to score, Josh and Mike were doing NOTHING remotely close to something that could lose them the ball game

BTW- There was no question in my mind, that that FG was going to be good, if it hadn't been tipped at the LOS.

2, Seattle is the heavy favorite - There are some people here who are taking umbrage when media outlets like ESPN are going 11-0 in picking the Seahawks. I ask WHY? If we are being honest, SHOULDN'T they be picking them, given what we've seen the last 3 weeks. The offense looks positively sporadic. The "MVP" QB looks like a clueless 23 year old who can barely complete half his passes, while our opponent is fielding an offense that puts up 30+ points in each game and a QB coming off a legacy changing playoff game. How could you NOT pick the Seahawks!

Well, my friends, it's time to wrap yourselves around your full Rodney Harrison underdog mentality and EMBRACE this narrative. Do not bark up against it like a rabid little Chihuahua. Be patient and just take it in. Don't buck the tide, grasshopper. I'm actually surprised that point spread isn't approaching double digits. Go fight about Bill getting screwed by the HOF, or what the Bills are doing to themselves. These next ten days should be about us finding the stories beneath the stories like that clip of the weaknesses of the Seatle interior OL or the like and filing them away so we can begin to explain, on Feb 9th, how they could have been so wrong this game. Help them understand just what they missed that put them on the wrong side again. Now THAT will be sweet.

3. These next 10 days are going to be ALL about the "cute little story" that the NE Patriots were this year, BUT... Accolades aplenty for Mike, Josh, and Drake, BUT...
NE fans are back after and ANGONIZING 7 year wait (how could they stand it that long), BUT... This is what the next 10 days are going to be filled with. Get used to it.

MOD EDIT By Ian: Political content removed.
 
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Since we have done this so often this century, I think we have gotten pretty good with handling this extra week of what amounts to "story creation time" by the media in order to fill time and create the content necessary to get us past this extra week of nothing in order to get to game week, when we essentially get to rehash the same stories all over again. I'm here to do 2 things. First to discuss what we are hearing so far, and second report on what I found after I went through the AFCCG again to find out about one of key narratives that is taking shape, "what are the Pats going to do in order to protect Will Campbell"


Initially, I didn't notice anything overtly negative about Campbell's play while I was watching the game, yet you couldn't fail to notice that there were a lot of sacks (5).
So, I went back last night and rewatched all the game again watching every play Campbell had and graded them. Well, for the first half I did, then I got bored and the stopped when the visibility got bad midway into the 3rd quarter. Bottom line here's what I got.

Campbell had one missed block, in the first half, a missed cut block that resulted in a hurry, but didn't really affect the pass, He also got the false start flag. The rest of the time on pass blocks, he either stuffed his guy, or ran him by the QB, In the 2nd half it was more of the same, though I doubt we threw the ball 10 times that half. I didn't see Campbell screw up but once, when he locked on a guy who didn't come while another guy came and looked like he thought he'd be covered ny someone else and it ended up with Maye being hurried, but that was the only play.

Bottom Line Campbell played most of the game against Bonito, and Bonito wound up without recording a single stat. O Sacks, O hurries, O hits, O Tackles and yet it is Campbell who left the game with the narrative that HE still remains the weak link on the Pats OL. What I saw was a young OLman who was MARKEDLY better than the previous week and likely to be better yet again February 8th. Like us, Seattle's defensive strength is its DT's. Their edge guys are good, but nothing like the threats Campbell has been facing the last 3 weeks, I'll be interested to see how PFF and the other graders marked this game.

I also marked 4 passes Maye threw as being just plain misses, usually they were all short or wide of the mark None of these passes were throws that were made in haste or in duress, they were just bad throws. So, it was not a good game throwing wise for Maye, and granted not very good conditions especially in the 2nd half, But it was a good day for Maye situationally. We won that game because he had ZERO turnovers, ZERO fumbles and ZERO interceptions. In fact, given what we have seen in the previous 2 games, it was amazing that there were only 2 TO's over the entire game given the conditions. That's a credit to both teams. It was clear as we entered into the 4th quarter and we were going INTO the wind and unlikely to score, Josh and Mike were doing NOTHING remotely close to something that could lose them the ball game

BTW- There was no question in my mind, that that FG was going to be good, if it hadn't been tipped at the LOS.

2, Seattle is the heavy favorite - There are some people here who are taking umbrage when media outlets like ESPN are going 11-0 in picking the Seahawks. I ask WHY? If we are being honest, SHOULDN'T they be picking them, given what we've seen the last 3 weeks. The offense looks positively sporadic. The "MVP" QB looks like a clueless 23 year old who can barely complete half his passes, while our opponent is fielding an offense that puts up 30+ points in each game and a QB coming off a legacy changing playoff game. How could you NOT pick the Seahawks!

Well, my friends, it's time to wrap yourselves around your full Rodney Harrison underdog mentality and EMBRACE this narrative. Do not bark up against it like a rabid little Chihuahua. Be patient and just take it in. Don't buck the tide, grasshopper. I'm actually surprised that point spread isn't approaching double digits. Go fight about Bill getting screwed by the HOF, or what the Bills are doing to themselves. These next ten days should be about us finding the stories beneath the stories like that clip of the weaknesses of the Seatle interior OL or the like and filing them away so we can begin to explain, on Feb 9th, how they could have been so wrong this game. Help them understand just what they missed that put them on the wrong side again. Now THAT will be sweet.

3. These next 10 days are going to be ALL about the "cute little story" that the NE Patriots were this year, BUT... Accolades aplenty for Mike, Josh, and Drake, BUT...
NE fans are back after and ANGONIZING 7 year wait (how could they stand it that long), BUT... This is what the next 10 days are going to be filled with. Get used to it.
Thank you for this.

How can anyone watch these teams respective postseason games and conclude the Patriots should NOT be underdogs?
 
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Thank you for this.

How can anyone watch these teams respective postseason games and conclude the Patriots should NOT be underdogs?
Well, two things. 1) The Pats were going up against 3 of the top 5 defenses, and 2) The awesome terrifying Seattle D gave up 479 yards to the Rams.
 
Well, two things. 1) The Pats were going up against 3 of the top 5 defenses, and 2) The awesome terrifying Seattle D gave up 479 yards to the Rams.
Patriots did not look good against top defenses. They are playing against another top defense. What would change in this game?

Puka, Stafford & Adams would shred most defenses out there. Rams have a better OL than the Patriots. Stafford is also in year 17 vs year 2 for Maye. That helps Stafford in the postseason.
 
7 of 8 good paragraphs gets you an 87% or B+ for this effort (ditto: @PatsWickedPissah ).

Re: Campbell. I’m still not convinced that was a missed cut block, as much as a wild attempt to get ANY PIECE of his body in the path between Bonino & Drake.

You can guarantee that Seattle is going to line up some one relatively quick off the snap (or who is will8ng to test the refs no calls) at that 7-8 yard out position where they can fly in at an angle Will can’t reasonably get to.
THEY HAVE SEEN THE FILM (3x) !!!

So, how do you stop it?
A. Move a RB or TE to that side when you see the alignment. Responsibility; chip to force DE back inside
Or, my preference …
B. Motion the right TE to cross after the snap and WHAM THE F outta the bastard.
Do it right and they only try it once.

[ Your thoughts Ken @patfanken ?]
 
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Patriots did not look good against top defenses. They are playing against another top defense. What would change in this game?

Puka, Stafford & Adams would shred most defenses out there. Rams have a better OL than the Patriots. Stafford is also in year 17 vs year 2 for Maye. That helps Stafford in the postseason.
It's the worst defense they've played in the playoffs.
That doesn't mean they're not good, they are, but it's not nearly as good as that Texans defense.
 
Seattle defense will be the easiest they have played and weather will be the best they have played and possibly for Seattle it would be the toughest defense they would have faced and the most dynamic dual threat QB they have faced with a CB who can rival jsn.

So they can be lulled into a sense of complacency but if Oline holds up and maye gets into getting season form , the whole NFL audience is gonna get shell shocked and angry barring a minor legion of pats fans across NE and rest of us smatterered all over the country and world.
 
Patriots did not look good against top defenses. They are playing against another top defense. What would change in this game?

Puka, Stafford & Adams would shred most defenses out there. Rams have a better OL than the Patriots. Stafford is also in year 17 vs year 2 for Maye. That helps Stafford in the postseason.
At this point in his career, I think that it is clear that Drake Maye loses a fair chunk of accuracy in poor weather. He just has misses. This isn’t just cold weather, it’s also rain.

However, it is fairly likely the weather will be excellent in Santa Clara. I expect him to struggle a little early with nerves, but I think he will settle down and show more in the Super Bowl. Clearly though, I am biased. I love this team
 
The story of the game will be the Pats' outstanding interior D-Line vs a mid-range center and a weak guard. No QB can survive quick pressure up the middle.

And on the other side of the ball? Unlike the defenses we have played recently, they don't have one or two essentially unblockable players - instead they have 7 excellent players with a whole bunch of stunts and tricks. I have no idea how the rookies will cope with that.
 
Some additional advantages are that there is tape on how to attack a taltented Seahawk defense. The Rams hung 37, 19 and 25 points against that vaunted defense. That is 27ppg and a very good not great Pats D is going to hold them to much less then that.

You want to know where John Streicher worked last year, for the Rams. You think he calls a recently defeated Rams coach and say "how did you attack them this year"? The film is out there for how to do it.

No Seahawks 12th Man to provide crowd noise and enhance the D. This will be a low scoring rock fight. SB are won not usually by the best players on the team but by contributing players and if I had to take a roster 1-48, I would take the Pats. They have to execute and avoid turnovers but I see 4 maybe 5 high level Seahawk players, that is it. You have to give the edge in coaching to Pats. When you look at the film the Seahawks do what they do and don't change alot. They stay with what they are good at and that is how you beat them. Make them do what they are not good at.

Prediction: It is a rock fight between two good Def, a couple of big plays decide it. Coaching is the edge and the more prepared Pats win 20-17.
 
Patriots did not look good against top defenses. They are playing against another top defense. What would change in this game?

Puka, Stafford & Adams would shred most defenses out there. Rams have a better OL than the Patriots. Stafford is also in year 17 vs year 2 for Maye. That helps Stafford in the postseason.
Weather. That's what changes in this game. Huge factor that just gets glossed over.
 
Weather. That's what changes in this game. Huge factor that just gets glossed over.
I was just speaking schematically they figured out what worked. They had a bunch of big plays in those 3 games and they are on film. I will acknowlege that the Rams O line was better. I would also argue that Sea is not better than some of the Def the Pats had to face to get here. If you give me a choice to face Hou, Den or Sea, I would take Seattle the talent level is not the same to me.
 
I mean on Def
 
Vrabel is smart enough to know the role of underdog plays into his favor, we all remember when Rodney would talk about bulletin board material..
Vrabel knows how to use this to motivate this team... considered how they embraced the "we're all we got, we're all we need" and the warrior stuff from the last game...
That does not translate into play on the field, but plays into the heads of the Pats players..
 
The rehabilitation of Will Campbell. I'm here for it. Holding Bonitto to those kind of numbers is ****in wild.

It's the worst defense they've played in the playoffs.
That doesn't mean they're not good, they are, but it's not nearly as good as that Texans defense.

...a Texans defense that Maye hung three nice passing TDs on, by the way. An almost completely underserved angle of Drake's turnovers in that game is to ask what Maye might have done against that D had he taken better care of the ball. Hopefully, we will see here in 8 days.
 
Seattle’s defense is similar in style/scheme to Baltimore’s defense. Seattle is just better. Maye will have success.
If he has time to throw. Vrabel needs to ensure an extra guy(s) is helping out the OL on every play. Letting guys figure it out on their own, or relying on a second year QB to get it out quicker, should not be an option.

I mentioned Vrabel because McDaniels has not been doing this. Just seems like such an easy decision to make.
 
I believe the spread should be 7-9.
The onlly reason it’s not is because a lot of credit is being given to the Pats defense
I will be tuning out all the media noise and hype and just wait to see what happens next weekend

Pressure is all on SEA
 
The rehabilitation of Will Campbell. I'm here for it. Holding Bonitto to those kind of numbers is ****in wild.



...a Texans defense that Maye hung three nice passing TDs on, by the way. An almost completely underserved angle of Drake's turnovers in that game is to ask what Maye might have done against that D had he taken better care of the ball. Hopefully, we will see here in 8 days.
Had it occurred in great weather, I would be more optimistic.

How many rushers would be able to get to a QB when they are slipping and sliding everywhere? I don't even know if they were able to see at certain points.
 
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