Once and for all... [Malcolm Butler pick revisited]

[patfanken]

I want to get this out of the way once and for all. For the next 10 days we are going to inundated with replays of the Malcolm Butler interception, with the side bar that this is the single DUMBEST play call in Super Bowl history, which I believe diminishes the play and disrespects the Patriots and their accomplishment.

First of all everyone simple assumes that giving the ball to Lynch was an automatic TD. It wasn't. Now these are some of the things the Seattle OC was thinking about as he made his call. First he saw the Pats make a substitution to a GL defense that was not only one of the best in the league that year, it was designed specifically stop Lynch and Seattle knew it. What few people ever mention is that during that season Lynch had something like a 1 in 6 or 8 success rate on GL attempts that season. Everyone was expecting the run and if it failed, they would still have 2 more chances to run it. In other words, it was the perfect time to try a pass play and that pick play had been successful several times that season.

Sure there was risk, but quite frankly, the risk of a pick was REALLY low, and if you look back at the play, the ball literally sticks to Butler's arm one handed, he almost does a double take realizing it was still in his arm. That Butler successfully defends that pass was probably a 30-40% chance. That he pick it off, was a 1 in a 100 chance. The other CB did a marvelous job keeping the pick guy off of Malcolm and Butler did a great job driving to the ball. But getting the pick was as lucky as the deflection catch that set up the play in the first place

Bottom line, this just wasn't the absurdly dumb call that it has come to be known. There was solid reasoning behind it. Can you question the call? Of course you can. I'd be complaining that there wasn't a hand off fake involved with the play. I've been making that complaint with Josh for close to 20 years, even though I understand why he sometimes doesn't do it, (your QB doesn't turn his back to the LOS, the ball comes out quicker, etc) BUT the point is the play call does NOT come close to being the historically stupid call it's come to be known as by the narrative makers.

It is Butler's and the rest of the defense's play that should be celebrated and NOT the uniformed 2nd guessers who get create the full narrative of that play, and the Play should be considered one the greatest clutch plays in Superbowl history, and NOT one of worst calls, because it simply wasn't. Sean Payton made a worse on last Sunday,

 

[Gumby]

I want to get this out of the way once and for all. For the next 10 days we are going to inundated with replays of the Malcolm Butler interception, with the side bar that this is the single DUMBEST play call in Super Bowl history, which I believe diminishes the play and disrespects the Patriots and their accomplishment.

First of all everyone simple assumes that giving the ball to Lynch was an automatic TD. It wasn't. Now these are some of the things the Seattle OC was thinking about as he made his call. First he saw the Pats make a substitution to a GL defense that was not only one of the best in the league that year, it was designed specifically stop Lynch and Seattle knew it. What few people ever mention is that during that season Lynch had something like a 1 in 6 or 8 success rate on GL attempts that season. Everyone was expecting the run and if it failed, they would still have 2 more chances to run it. In other words, it was the perfect time to try a pass play and that pick play had been successful several times that season.

Sure there was risk, but quite frankly, the risk of a pick was REALLY low, and if you look back at the play, the ball literally sticks to Butler's arm one handed, he almost does a double take realizing it was still in his arm. That Butler successfully defends that pass was probably a 30-40% chance. That he pick it off, was a 1 in a 100 chance. The other CB did a marvelous job keeping the pick guy off of Malcolm and Butler did a great job driving to the ball. But getting the pick was as lucky as the deflection catch that set up the play in the first place

Bottom line, this just wasn't the absurdly dumb call that it has come to be known. There was solid reasoning behind it. Can you question the call? Of course you can. I'd be complaining that there wasn't a hand off fake involved with the play. I've been making that complaint with Josh for close to 20 years, even though I understand why he sometimes doesn't do it, (your QB doesn't turn his back to the LOS, the ball comes out quicker, etc) BUT the point is the play call does NOT come close to being the historically stupid call it's come to be known as by the narrative makers.

It is Butler's and the rest of the defense's play that should be celebrated and NOT the uniformed 2nd guessers who get create the full narrative of that play, and the Play should be considered one the greatest clutch plays in Superbowl history, and NOT one of worst calls, because it simply wasn't. Sean Payton made a worse on last Sunday,

100% True analysis. Good write-up, but that won’t stop it being debated, even on this board- just look at how we had „Spygate“ re-litigated this week.

A certain poster from Ghooorgia will hate this, but….. this was pure BB genius on display.
A. Totally 180-degrees out from accepted doctrine to not burn any timeouts (& thereby put pressure on Carroll) ( intentional BB-Level decision per multiple Bb & DC interviews)
B. Total preparation: he told team this was a goal-line favorite. IIRC (what Butler said) they practiced it multiple times and scout team beat them every time with it..
C. Forcing the O to a known play call: BB said in a recent interview, ‚I knew if I sent in GL linemen D, they would respond with this (or a similar) pass play.‘ (based on Carroll‘s yar-long tendencies.

 

[BobDigital]

Simply put Seattle had 1 time out left and the clock I think had 25 seconds left at the time of the snap.

If they run and thx pile up happens they have to call a time out. So 3rd and maybe 1-2 (depending on if they get pushed back).

If a penalty and you get pushed back it isn't impossible to have a player taken down in bounds. Or a sack on 3rd potentially ends the game or you don't get a decent play off.

I understand the logic behind the pass. You want to say to yourself I have 3 more shots. Let's save the time out just in case something weird happens on 3rd down.

The thing no one talks about enough on this play is the decision making of Russel Wilson. He should have either placed the ball more defensively (making the catch harder but the pass safer) or thrown it away. He took a high risk tight pass in a situation he didn't have to.

And since they recently used a time out before the play you just know he was reminded NOT to do that.

 

[Mike the Brit]

Ken, if you haven't listened to Matt Patricia's background breakdown of the play with Edelman on this, you must. It's part of a larger conversation, but this Facebook video breaks it out.

It's one of the most illuminating things I've ever listened to about football, and it left me with enormous respect for Matty P. The work and planning that he (and Belichick) put into preparing the team are just staggering.

 

[OldEngland]

I hope there is a narrative of how great that 2014 superbowl was in the next two weeks. Not just ending, but how great the two teams were.

To me that was THE game of the 21st century. Two superb teams at their peak. There are 11 members (over 20%) of the 2010s HOF all-decade team playing in that superbowl. Brady, Gronk, Revis, Ch.Jones, Ghost and BB, with Thomas, Sherman, Wagner, Lynch and Carroll. Then you add all of the other legendary players in that game, and the fact the Pats coaching and front office staff was truly loaded. Even the 2018 AFC championship comes second in my mind.

In Do Your Job, Ernie says they identified it as a play the Hawks ran at the goal-line a few times that year, and Patrick Graham stated they practiced against that play multiple, multiple times; not just with the starters but back ups as well.

That Seahawks team was a wagon, but Carroll and the Seahawks O was in position, but in disarray in the heat of the moment, Hightower had just made the play of the game on Lynch at the goalline. Bill just sensing it and letting the clock run down to ramp the pressure up and up and up when the stakes were already at their highest. Trusting his players and the preparation under the pressure, and Browner and Butler delivered.

I will forever remain convinced it is the finest example of preparation, coaching and application of situational football in the history of the game, demonstrated in the final minute of the most legendary game in the last 25 years.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

At the very least the call wasn’t as terrible as everyone claims. Seattle was maximizing their options. If you run on 2nd and get stopped, you have to burn the last to. 3rd down then pretty much HAS to be a pass or you risk that being your last play(or being in a mad rush to get the 4th down off and those situations rarely end well for offenses). If you pass, the overwhelming odds are its a td or falls incomplete, the clock stops and you can do anything you want on 3rd since you have that to and most defenses aren’t expecting a pass on 2nd either on top of that. The chances of that pass being picked is probably one in a million. Butler made the one in a million play, that was the REAL story of it but since its the patriots we all know the narrative will be just trash the opponent instead.

 

[PP2]

If I remember right, they stimulated that exact same play at the goal-line in practice the week before and Malcolm either dropped the INT or failed to execute. The video should still be out there somewhere.

 

[RobertWeathers]

They should have run the ball or run play action. If a pure pass play throw the fade or rollout for a run-option.

OT: I still don't know why Matt Slater was jumping up and down like a wack job during the melee at the end of the game. Hysterical.

 

[Huckleberry1]

If I remember right, they stimulated that exact same play at the goal-line in practice the week before and Malcolm either dropped the INT or failed to execute. The video should still be out there somewhere.

They ran it 11 times in practice and Butler made the wrong decision and went outside Browner every time , opening the gap for the receiver to catch the TD pass. In the game Butler once again lined up outside of Browner and Browner turned around and moved him to the inside of him, at which point butler realized " I know what this play is, and ran right at Wilson the second the ball was snapped, and after faking to the inside Wilson turned and fired it right into Butler's chest. IMO it's the greatest defensive play call of all time. Belichick baited Carroll into running that play, they were ready for it, and Butler finished it with the interception to win the game.

 

[Clonamery]

They should have run the ball or run play action. If a pure pass play throw the fade or rollout for a run-option.

OT: I still don't know why Matt Slater was jumping up and down like a wack job during the melee at the end of the game. Hysterical.

Patricia explained it: panic. He thought Seattle would panic because they hadn't seen it and that it was a play too early for the TO and they would pass there because they felt the Pats were playing the run. Preparedness and trust. It was rocket science.

 

[Grogan14]

Ken
You are 100% correct. Whenever ESPN shows this highlight they frame it as a terrible coaching decision by SEA.
They do not frame it as the most clutch defensive play of the SB era.

BB’s and MP’’s brilliant coaching decision and Butler’s execution should be the tag for the most consequential single play in NFL history.

 

[irishfanatic]

100% True analysis. Good write-up, but that won’t stop it being debated, even on this board- just look at how we had „Spygate“ re-litigated this week.

A certain poster from Ghooorgia will hate this, but….. this was pure BB genius on display.
A. Totally 180-degrees out from accepted doctrine to not burn any timeouts (& thereby put pressure on Carroll) ( intentional BB-Level decision per multiple Bb & DC interviews)
B. Total preparation: he told team this was a goal-line favorite. IIRC (what Butler said) they practiced it multiple times and scout team beat them every time with it..
C. Forcing the O to a known play call: BB said in a recent interview, ‚I knew if I sent in GL linemen D, they would respond with this (or a similar) pass play.‘ (based on Carroll‘s yar-long tendencies.

Ghooorgia, brilliant, that made me laugh. Nicely done Sir.

 

[bresna]

I agree with everything Ken said. Brilliant coaching by the Patriots and great execution by the defense. I vividly remember the end of this game - my favorite Patriots Super Bowl. I was hopping up & down when Belichick didn't call the timeout, just knowing that it was him psyching out the Seahwaks.

When the camera panned to Belichick walking down the sidelines, I had to laugh. He knew he was putting intense pressure on them. To me, I felt that they had to pass to stop the clock, especially after Hightower stuffed Lynch on the play before. I actually figured Wilson would throw it away.

What a great ending to a great game.

 

[sb1]

And Butler HAD to intercept the pass. If he just knocked it down, it would be Lynch next.

 

[DarrylS]

Great play, first thing I looked at was how much time was left (20 seconds) and how many timeouts Seattle had (1)..
Then I celebrated as I knew it was over...
Have avoided all the sports talkers who minimized this... nothing can take away from that ending.

 

[XLIX]

I’m in the camp that realizes that it was second down but based on the clock (and timeout) situation, they could only run the ball twice. If they wanted 3 bites at the apple, they needed to pass it at least once - and that pass had to be on 2nd or 3rd down.

The assumption is your worst case scenario on a very quick pass is an incompletion. Well they got outcoached there.

 

[NFL Mystique]

First off, I love how certain media people say how "lucky" Tom Brady is that Seattle "screwed" up & Atlanta did not run the ball more. How lucky was Brady in SB 42 when Tyree happened or in SB 52 when he played brilliantly and was failed by his HC? Obviously, that is not brought up. It would hurt their argument.

I look back now and realize it was mostly Butler making a great play & not Seattle with an awful play. Even though the pass itself could have been better, 99/100 times that falls incomplete.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Patricia explained it: panic. He thought Seattle would panic because they hadn't seen it and that it was a play too early for the TO and they would pass there because they felt the Pats were playing the run. Preparedness and trust. It was rocket science.

That was the reason Slater jumping up and down like and idiot?

I'll have to watch Fat/Skinny Matt.

 

[reflexblue]

I never had a problem with the call, i'm sure everyone in the stadium and watching thought that Carrol would run the ball. I'm pretty sure the pats were keying on lynch, so passing would catch the defense off guard. If i remember correctly Butler had seen the play either on film in practice and knew where the ball was going as the play developed

 

[Steve102]

Do your job. I feel like everyone has seen this, but if you haven't, here you go.