What is your confidence level for the AFC Championship Game?

[sturmrider]

I'm mostly confident but my biggest fear is the altitude and how it will affect the players. I can see us getting a big lead and losing it in the fourth quarter as our players become exhausted.

I sincerely hope I am wrong. Following the Pats since they were started with Billy Sullivan through all their ups and downs and the one place they have had their most downs has been in Denver.

 

[scott99]

We have to remember, the Pats aren’t playing just Stidham. The Broncos have an excellent defense, and excellent O-Line, good running game and good receivers, and excellent coaching. So if they had Nix, I’d be worried, without him, still apprehensive, because they have an excellent team surrounding Stidham. It won’t be easy getting pressure against that excellent O-Line like it was vs LA and Houston.

Add in that crazy crowd they have, which makes it really hard on communication for the offense. And the Mile High air levels.

 

[Water Boy]

We have to remember, the Pats aren’t playing just Stidham. The Broncos have an excellent defense, and excellent O-Line, good running game and good receivers, and excellent coaching. So if they had Nix, I’d be worried, without him, still apprehensive, because they have an excellent team surrounding Stidham. It won’t be easy getting pressure against that excellent O-Line like it was vs LA and Houston.

Add in that crazy crowd they have, which makes it really hard on communication for the offense. And the Mile High air levels.

Denver was ranked 19th in rushing yards this season. I'd call that so so.

 

[Kdo5]

I feel relatively confident but Denver is Denver. Ya never know. The Pats are a better football team and are playing their best. The Broncos are not.

If it does get dicey, hopefully the league/officials throw us a bone. I can’t imagine they want Jared Stidham in their Super Bowl matchup.

 

[NFL Mystique]

They have been good at not turning the ball over throughout the season.
Denver has been terrible at getting turnovers.

Until these past two games. Against very good defenses. That was at home. Now, they face a good defense on the road.

Isn't it fair to say they have yet to play in a stadium with this amount of noise (Buffalo isn't as loud) all year?

 

[Ring 6]

Until these past two games. Against very good defenses. That was at home. Now, they face a good defense on the road.

Isn't it fair to say they have yet to play in a stadium with this amount of noise (Buffalo isn't as loud) all year?

Right I am looking at the larger sample size.

I don’t know that no I see correlates to turnovers

 

[NFL Mystique]

I feel relatively confident but Denver is Denver. Ya never know. The Pats are a better football team and are playing their best. The Broncos are not.

If it does get dicey, hopefully the league/officials throw us a bone. I can’t imagine they want Jared Stidham in their Super Bowl matchup.

No because they would get obliterated in the SB. They won't have the altitude and crowd noise anymore. The game will probably be over at halftime. The Patriots (right now) would be 4 point underdogs to the NFC winner. That is if the big game was this Sunday. They present a much bigger challenge.

To your first point, I don't believe the Patriots are playing at their best. Defense? Yes. Offense? Definitely not. Defense looks completely different in a good way from the season. Offense looks different for the wrong reasons. It's like everything has switched.

Also, if it's 3rd and very long, Stidham will throw it deep trying to get a PI call. Payton looks at it as best case: Get the call. Worst case: Arm punt. The Patriots should look at doing the same thing toward Riley Moss.

 

[PatsFan2]

Will Campbell needs to have a Decent Game: and Maye needs to protect the Football. IF those two things happen we win handily.

 

[neuronet]

Denver pass rush is amazing. Campbell is going to have problems. If Maye can get the ball out fast and avoid turnovers, we should be ok.

 

[NFL Mystique]

Right I am looking at the larger sample size.

I don’t know that no I see correlates to turnovers

I believe the turnovers have been a function of bad play on the OL and Maye not being aware of the pressure enough to: take the sack or throw it away.

 

[fnordcircle]

It'll be almost as bad as losing to Osweiler - that's how much I think the matchup favors us.

* A far less mobile QB who has thrown a record low number of passes for a guy starting in the AFCCG.
* Huge questions at C - even if their best guy plays I believe he's been out for a while so he might be rusty and not 100% - and the interior of our DL is where the most talent is.
* A defense that made its bones blitzing against the best QB against the blitz in the league.

It'll take an all time coaching job and a significant letdown by our coaches and players for them to win.

 

[Ring 6]

I believe the turnovers have been a function of bad play on the OL and Maye not being aware of the pressure enough to: take the sack or throw it away.

Mostly the OL. And some were fluky like the broken play, the Hail Mary and Vrabel also implied one of the sack fumbles was a breakdown where someone did the wrong thing.

 

[bogey888]

Odds are it'll be a close game. The difference may be how well Carlton Davis plays as he is the weakest link in an otherwise solid defense. Hopefully Payton isn't very successful in scheming to expose him.

 

[NFL Mystique]

Odds are it'll be a close game. The difference may be how well Carlton Davis plays as he is the weakest link in an otherwise solid defense. Hopefully Payton isn't very successful in scheming to expose him.

Payton is a great HC. He will target the guy who was number one in DPI calls this season. Davis & Campbell are probably the two weakest links on the entire team atm.

On the other side, McDaniels needs to target Moss. He is second in DPI calls against.

 

[TheRainMaker]

Odds are it'll be a close game. The difference may be how well Carlton Davis plays as he is the weakest link in an otherwise solid defense. Hopefully Payton isn't very successful in scheming to expose him.

Marcus Jones is statistically the weakest link. He overall had a very good game last Sunday. I'm not even mad about the TD he allowed on a bigger body WR as that's what happens when the team gets caught on a zero blitz. Houston couldn't move the ball without good field position from the Pats turnovers or inability to move the ball. Be prepared for him to be tested again on Sunday.

 

[ahmed]

I thought we would lose to Bills or Texans. Broncos never scared me, even before the Nix injury. Mile High is tough but I think we make it to the SB.

 

[Zoomnbyu]

With Davis out of concussion protocol and Big Mack attack "looking" like playing I'm bumping up from Mostly Confident to Very Confident.

 

[mgcolby]

What? What exactly is wrong with what I said? Where is it pro Denver?
Why would a Denver site enjoy me saying their only chance is Devito coming in?

On your third post here you imply the Pats will win because the league will fix it to make it so, because they don't want Stidham in the SB. That sets off trolling alarm bells.

 

[TomPatriot]

No turnovers, Pats win. Denver defense? Giants had over 400 yards total offense and only lost because of some borderline penalty calls/noncalls and a missed PAT. Denver got blown out for 2 1/2 quarters and then the woeful Giants collapsed. Bills were the better team last week and only lost because of Josh Allen heroball and the “interception.” We should be playing the Bills at home.

I’m not buying the Broncos hype. Stidham will be adequate (but no more) because the OL is very good and it’s the only area where Denver is clearly better than NE: now they get to play against Barmore, Williams, Tonga and Chaisson, all of whom are surging, backed up by Spillane, the most underrated LB in the NFL. Good luck with that. Denver defense has come back to earth because the second level is relatively slow and the DL can be moved. They have a pass rusher, a corner and a LB. After that, meh.

Pats have the better STs and coaching staff.

Home field, Mile High, bad playoff history, rubbish? Everyone forgets the Patriots won EVERY road game they played this year, including wins over the Bills, Bucs and Ravens.

We’re winning this game, unless Drake gets knocked out of the game, or it’s straight up rigged. I don't think Payton will target him, but it also wouldn't shock me given the history. Let’s hope for a clean game all around.

Pats by 10.

 

[Ring 6]

Payton is a great HC. He will target the guy who was number one in DPI calls this season. Davis & Campbell are probably the two weakest links on the entire team atm.

On the other side, McDaniels needs to target Moss. He is second in DPI calls against.

One PI every other game is not something to build a game plan around.
Davis is a good corner, let them try to win by having Stidham attack Davis. We come out way ahead on that.

Actually I think moss had the most with 10 and Davis had 9.

One pet peeve I have is targeting a player or aspect (ie run heavy or pass heavy). If Moss is a weak corner the last thing you want to do is build a game plan around targeting him every play, because you are telling them to give him help. You should run regular offense and target the weak link in the instances where he doesn’t have help.
Seattles cus h made the observation that teams were ignoring running against the 49ers because “ they were so attractive to throw against” and it caused teams to abandon the run and let them over play the pass. He was right and they pummeled them twice by following that.