What is your confidence level for the AFC Championship Game?

[Tunescribe]

My view: any advantage the Patriots might have facing Stidham instead of Nix is mitigated by Denver's strong OL, the altitude, plus crowd noise slowing our offense. Both defenses are strong. I see this as a toss-up coming down to the wire, wish I felt otherwise.

 

[Racervx54]

Anything can happen. I am 75% on us winning and the other 25 is ANYTHING can happen... That said losing this game would be a huge disappointment..16-3 right now he a hell of a season. We cant not lose to this QB that hasn't thrown a pass in a game since 2023.............

 

[NFL Mystique]

Campbell might be the biggest concern. He struggled at home. Imagine the potential false start penalties and missed assignments in Denver? Leaving him on an island should not be a consideration.

Maye's fumbling problems got worse from the Chargers to Texans game. It's tough to ignore that and I wonder if he will be able to hear the playcalls well enough.

I have to say 50/50 because I don't trust the offense not to turn it over. And if they get down early, they may press.

 

[NFL Mystique]

I’m confident, but any given Sunday and all that. There’s very little room for error in these kinds of games. Every player on Denver will be looking to prove a point that they don’t need Nix to win. We have to meet and beat that energy.

While we won all our road games none of the environments will be close to how Mile High will be on Sunday, especially if the game is close. Our OL needs to deliver massively.

That, turnovers, their OL, & noise are all issues. It's hard to watch a team be sloppy on offense in two home playoff games. Then, expect them to be much better on the road in a loud environment.

If the Patriots can get up 10-0, that would be to their advantage. They can play on their terms. If they go down 10-0 early, you run the risk of Maye trying to do too much and the team getting rattled.

So, I do think whoever scores first is bigger in this game than most others.

 

[NFL Mystique]

Anything can happen. I am 75% on us winning and the other 25 is ANYTHING can happen... That said losing this game would be a huge disappointment..16-3 right now he a hell of a season. We cant not lose to this QB that hasn't thrown a pass in a game since 2023.............

What is this based on. They turned it over like crazy at home. That will get better in a very loud hostile environment?

If the Patriots continue turning it over, Denver can just play conservative and run most of the time. Stidham won't have to do too much.

 

[Ring 6]

Not really the same. Nick was practically a co starter for that team that year

No he wasn’t. Wentz was the MVP favorite and got hurt with 3 games left.

 

[Ring 6]

That, turnovers, their OL, & noise are all issues. It's hard to watch a team be sloppy on offense in two home playoff games. Then, expect them to be much better on the road in a loud environment.

If the Patriots can get up 10-0, that would be to their advantage. They can play on their terms. If they go down 10-0 early, you run the risk of Maye trying to do too much and the team getting rattled.

So, I do think whoever scores first is bigger in this game than most others.

They have been good at not turning the ball over throughout the season.
Denver has been terrible at getting turnovers.

 

[Ring 6]

My view: any advantage the Patriots might have facing Stidham instead of Nix is mitigated by Denver's strong OL, the altitude, plus crowd noise slowing our offense. Both defenses are strong. I see this as a toss-up coming down to the wire, wish I felt otherwise.

I think not having Nix can negate the OL. Nix spent a lot of time running for his life which was a big factor in their OL low sack total. The OL has not been very good run blocking either. Stidhams inexperience and inability tibescapevabd extend like Nix may expose the OL

Bold prediction the Patriots get as many or more sacks as the Broncos.

 

[Tunescribe]

I think not having Nix can negate the OL. Nix spent a lot of time running for his life which was a big factor in their OL low sack total. The OL has not been very good run blocking either. Stidhams inexperience and inability tibescapevabd extend like Nix may expose the OL

Bold prediction the Patriots get as many or more sacks as the Broncos.

Apparently their starting center, Wattenberg, has returned from IR for this game. That plugs a big hole for them.

 

[mgcolby]

The Pats would have to literally **** and puke simultaneously at midfield throughout the game in order to lose. There are no excuses. Don't turn the ball over 3+ times and we go to the Superbowl!

 

[PatriotSpy]

There’s a big drop off from Bo to Jarrett in the sense that Bo has a comeback clutch gene. He’s done it quite a few times in his short time in the NFL. If the Patriots are up 20-0, I’m more comfortable knowing Jarrett is on the other side than Nix.

Stopping the run is obvious. That’s number 1. Then we have to keep Stidham in the pocket. We’re going to have to rely on coverage and disguise to make Stidham hold the ball a second longer for the rush to get home. We have been doing well disguising our coverage. Guys are going to have to do a good job carrying and passing off their man in zone. Stidham might not have the timing with the receivers that he would like. Have to throw off the timing and quite a few of their receivers don’t have good play strength. Jam them at the line.

Lastly, we have to limit YAC and big plays. Tackle hard and play physical. The intensity has to be ratcheted up because guys like Stidham aren’t the kind of quarterbacks that can overcome a physical defense that makes you work hard for every inch. He’s going to want chunks to avoid the pressure of executing a bunch of plays to score points.

 

[mgcolby]

Some stats:

From the past 4 games.

Defensive Comparison​

Stat	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Points Allowed	SEA (8.8)	NE (9.8)	DEN (19.0)	LA (28.0)
Yards Allowed	SEA (190.8)	NE (233.8)	DEN (266.0)	LA (347.8)
YPP Allowed	SEA (3.6)	NE (3.75)	DEN (4.3)	LA (6.03)
Pass Yds Allowed	SEA (101.5)	NE (143.3)	DEN (168.3)	LA (235.0)
Pass YPA Allowed	SEA (3.4)	NE (3.8)	DEN (4.22)	LA (6.6)
Rush Yds Allowed	SEA (89.3)	NE (90.5)	DEN (97.8)	LA (112.8)
Rush YPC Allowed	NE (3.65)	SEA (3.85)	DEN (4.63)	LA (4.8)
Takeaways/Game	NE (2.3)	SEA (1.8)	DEN (1.0)	LA (1.0)
INTs/Game	NE (1.5)	SEA (1.0)	DEN (0.8)	LA (0.5)
Fumbles Rec/Game	NE (0.8)	SEA (0.8)	LA (0.5)	DEN (0.3)
Defensive TDs	SEA (0.3)	NE (0.3)	DEN (0.3)	LA (0.3)
Opp 3rd Down %	SEA (31.1%)	NE (32.1%)	LA (38.0%)	DEN (42.4%)
Opp 4th Down %	SEA (20.0%)	NE (33.3%)	LA (42.9%)	DEN (50.0%)
Opp Red Zone %	NE (18.2%)	SEA (50.0%)	DEN (50.0%)	LA (69.2%)

Defensive Summary:​

SEA: 1st in 9 categories - dominant overall
NE: 1st in 5 categories (Rush YPC, Takeaways, INTs, Fumbles tied, Red Zone) - ball hawks
DEN: Distant 3rd across the board
LA: Last in 10 of 14 categories

Offensive Comparison​

Stat	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Points Scored	LA (34.0)	NE (31.0)	SEA (24.8)	DEN (23.3)
Total Yards	LA (422.0)	NE (381.5)	DEN (344.8)	SEA (311.0)
YPP	NE (6.3)	LA (6.17)	DEN (5.3)	SEA (5.13)
Pass Yards	LA (288.8)	DEN (236.3)	NE (219.3)	SEA (169.0)
Pass YPA	NE (7.97)	LA (7.0)	DEN (6.3)	SEA (5.85)
Rush Yards	NE (162.3)	SEA (142.0)	LA (133.3)	DEN (108.5)
Rush YPC	LA (4.97)	NE (4.92)	SEA (4.17)	DEN (4.13)
Turnovers/Game	SEA (0.5)	DEN (1.0)	LA (1.3)	NE (1.3)
INTs Thrown	SEA (0.3)	NE (0.5)	DEN (0.5)	LA (1.3)
Fumbles Lost	LA (0.0)	SEA (0.3)	DEN (0.5)	NE (0.8)
3rd Down %	DEN (43.1%)	SEA (40.4%)	LA (37.3%)	NE (36.4%)
4th Down %	NE (66.7%)	LA (60.0%)	DEN (50.0%)	SEA (33.3%)
Red Zone %	NE (71.4%)	LA (61.1%)	DEN (53.8%)	SEA (41.2%)
First Downs	LA (23.0)	NE (20.5)	DEN (19.3)	SEA (19.0)

Offensive Summary:
LA: 1st in 6 categories - volume kings (points, yards, pass yards, rush YPC, first downs, no fumbles lost)
NE: 1st in 5 categories - efficient and balanced (YPP, pass YPA, rush yards, 4th down, red zone)
SEA: 1st in ball security (fewest turnovers, fewest INTs) but 4th in most efficiency stats
DEN: Only leads in 3rd down % - middle of the pack otherwise

Overall Rankings
1. NEW ENGLAND
Defense: 2nd in points allowed (9.8), 1st in takeaways (2.3), 1st in red zone D (18.2%)
Offense: 2nd in points (31.0), 1st in YPP (6.3), 1st in pass YPA (7.97), 1st in red zone (71.4%)
The most complete team. Elite efficiency on both sides, best turnover margin, finishes drives and stops them.

2. SEATTLE
Defense: 1st in points allowed (8.8), 1st in yards (190.8), 1st in YPP allowed (3.6)
Offense: 3rd in points (24.8), 4th in yards (311.0), but 1st in ball security (0.5 TO/game)
Dominant defense carries them, but the offense is limited. They win by not beating themselves.

3. LA
Defense: Dead last in almost everything (28.0 pts, 347.8 yds, 6.03 YPP allowed)
Offense: 1st in points (34.0), 1st in yards (422.0), 1st in pass yards (288.8)
Have to outscore everyone because the defense can't stop anyone. High-wire act.

4. DENVER
Defense: 3rd across the board, nothing special
Offense: 4th in points (23.3), 4th in rush yards (108.5), only leads in 3rd down %
Middle of the road on both sides - and now without their starting QB.

 

[Jim Plunkett]

As long as Maye doesn't fall down and it's Devito. There shouldn't be anything other than Pats win.
I doubt the NFL will allow a Stidham super bowl.

 

[mgcolby]

As long as Maye doesn't fall down and it's Devito. There shouldn't be anything other than Pats win.
I doubt the NFL will allow a Stidham super bowl.

Trolling? Not very subtle. Maybe go back to the Broncos board and take this ignorance with you.

 

[TB12TheGoat]

losing to Stidham with a SB appearance on the line would be one of the worst losses in franchise history

Pats have to take advantage of this golden opportunity

 

[Jim Plunkett]

Trolling? Not very subtle. Maybe go back to the Broncos board and take this ignorance with you.

What? What exactly is wrong with what I said? Where is it pro Denver?
Why would a Denver site enjoy me saying their only chance is Devito coming in?

 

[Hyped]

I am 50/50 myself. It is freaking DENVER.

But at the same time, this team is a completely new generation of players/coaches. 1 player played with Brady (on ANOTHER team), one Coach played with Brady more than 15 years ago, our OC was Brady’s OC, one strength coach worked with Belichick, and about 19-20 players who played for Belichick between 2020-2023.

I like this bunch of guys and it is all gravy from this point and on for me.

I did not expect the Patriots to be here….I was hoping for a 11-6 season with a win on wild card weekend….then one more season to further reload….

 

[Sorrynotsorry]

This is Mayes game to lose. I think the pats d is going to do great things.

Maye just cant fumble.

(Rodgers was really good at holding the ball and getting crunched when he felt the pocket collapse)

(Not saying you should aspire for this!)

Maye is definitely a mobile qb compared to Rodgers.

Maye shows glimpses of greatness with his runs...



Maye is going to have to make harder decisions on pass plays... taking a sack and trying to get back to the line of scrimmage( or beyond)is not the end of the world. Id like to see some really solid quick release pass plays... just eat em up on the edge to the perimeter)I also hope our run game is as productive as last game.... which i think it will be.



I think the pats are a solid team... capable of beating anybody.

Im excited for this game.

This feels like the pats turn 10 years later!

I had some really big expectations for this offense throughout the season...

Now that I have started to tighten up my predictions and the pats total score, they are putting up more points than I have guessed.

just play clean.

Vrabel has done a great job this season.

How does he not get coach of the year?

 

[NovaScotiaPatsFan]

I just hate playing in denver. Strange things happen there - the muffed punt, the champ bailey interception, even josh mcd beat us there with brady. Plus the recent fumbles we have had at home have had me worried . First time in denver for maye and co. So i am not that confident regardless who is starting for them.
I just hope we dont overcoach. Josh has a tendency to do that. We did that in 2015 at times . We really need to be able to run the ball to settle down.

"The real heroes are the ones who never came back from Harper's Muff." -Jerry Thornton (1:42)

 

[DarrylS]

Most of us grew up with the forever haunting words of Steve Sabol; "on any given Sunday"...
With that in mind confident that the Pats can pull this off as my confidence in this team and coaching has progressively increased throughout the season..
This team has no fear and Vrabel has instilled the belief in them that they can win any game...
But, we have to minimize turnovers and slow down the Bronco's pass rush...