What is your confidence level for the AFC Championship Game?

[NovaScotiaPatsFan]

With the news of Nix breaking his ankle I think most of the NFL fan base outside of the two teams think the Patriots have this one in the bag, but as I've said elsewhere the QB play wasn't what concerned me about facing the Broncos. It was their defense and their homefield advantage in that toilet bowl those hicks call a stadium. I do think losing Nix has to have a negative effect on them, just simply from the rust factor Stiddy will be dealing with, but I think it's less pronounced than most fans think it will be.

I'm personally in the mostly confident as long as we play a clean game camp. But that's a BIG if considering Drake's ball security issues so far in the playoffs and the Broncos' D. I think if we win the turnover battle we win the game, but I'm also expecting some shenanigans from the refs/league because we all know the league hates us. And I'm not talking about BS moron Bills fans thinking a clear INT is a catch, I'm talking actual shenanigans like Mike Carey not calling Hayseed Jr. sacked in the grasp in the game that shall not be named or the league changing the catch rules without bothering to tell anyone in LII type shenanigans.

So, what say you?

 

[farn]

I stupidly ALMOST chose a non RL option. Luckily, I snapped out of it just in time.

Mostly confident that if NE finds a way to cleam up errors, the odds are in their favour. That said - weird things can happen, and I think that despite the less-than-murderer's-row oppoenents, Denver has talent on D.

 

[festy1986]

There is no way you can justify a loss here considering all the circumstances.

 

[Steve102]

I'm 50/50. They should beat Stidham, but if it's a close game, the refs can become the third team on the field. I have to think the league would rather have Drake "Drake Maye" Maye and Matt Stafford in the SB than Stiddy and Sam Darnold.

 

[Rob0729]

I think this is going to be a blow out.

People are overrating the Broncos defense which has been a shell of itself for over a month (the Patriots defense has a higher DVOA since November). Allen carved up this defense last week. Most of the turnovers were stupid mistakes by Allen. And not forced stupidity like the Pats did with Stroud last week.

I also think people are wish casting Stidham into a solid starter who just happens to be in a back up role. I am waiting for some talking head to compare him to Steve Young when he was backing up Montana.

Anything could happen. And of course, playing in Denver brings its own problem, but I give this about a 75% of being the Patriots blowing out the Broncos, 15% that the Pats win in a close game, and 10% that the Broncos win.

 

[DC Patriots]

I’m fairly confident they stop the run, meaning that the only path to a win for Denver is through turnovers or a few big penalties swinging their way. Both those are possible.

I will be more confident if NE is able to jump on top early. I have confidence in Stidham thinking he can make throws he probably can’t if he forced to be agressive/play catch up.

 

[turkeyneck]

I'm mostly confident ... but RLKAG ...

 

[VrabelJr]

I’m confident, but any given Sunday and all that. There’s very little room for error in these kinds of games. Every player on Denver will be looking to prove a point that they don’t need Nix to win. We have to meet and beat that energy.

While we won all our road games none of the environments will be close to how Mile High will be on Sunday, especially if the game is close. Our OL needs to deliver massively.

 

[Hugepatsfan]

I go back and forth between "I'm very confident, but think we could lose if everything goes wrong." and "I'm mostly confident, as long as we play a clean game."

We have a 14-3 team that's been overall very good on offense and defense this year. People point out our weak schedule and it's valid to question, but DEN had the 2nd easiest schedule themselves and they had to pull out a lot of fourth quarter magic to beat some pretty bad teams. On the one hand, that can prove clutch drive and good situational football, but for the people who want to pick at us for our schedule I would think they should be just as, if not more, nitpicky about DEN playing the 2nd weakest schedule and not even dominating it. Oh..... and then we get to the part about their starting QB being out of the game.

The thing that gives me pause is I'm still not super high on our roster. Obviously we have a good team, but I do think it was elevated into the upper echelon record wise through a combo of Drake Maye's elite level QB play and the favorable schedule. Maye isn't playing at an elite level lately with his ball security so that gives me pause. We SHOULD win this game though.

 

[upstater1]

Three factors make me 50/50:

1. Denver's house of horror home field advantage. The loud noise will disrupt our offense and the general altitude will produce weirdness.

2. They have a very good OLine -- you don't want to send zero blitzes against them. The 2 best tackles in the NFL postseason against the pass rush so far? Morgan Moses and Mike McGlinchey. When I read that McGlinchey stat, my butt clenched, because Garrett Bolles on the other side is a 1st team ALL-PRO.

3. Patriots give up more sacks per pressure than any other team in the league. The Broncos convert more pressures into sacks than any other team in the league.

These are the 3 factors that have me a bit worried.

The Patriots can take advantage of Broncos weaknesses all over the field (Moss at CB, short throws in the flat and out of backfield against mediocre linebackers, confusing coverages to a backup QB) so I have some confidence as well.

 

[UrbanCowboy]

I think this is going to be a blow out.

People are overrating the Broncos defense which has been a shell of itself for over a month (the Patriots defense has a higher DVOA since November). Allen carved up this defense last week. Most of the turnovers were stupid mistakes by Allen. And forced stupidity like the Pats did with Stroud last week.

I also think people are wish casting Stidham into a solid starter who just happens to be in a back up role. I am some talking head to compare him to Steve Young when he was backing up Montana.

Anything could happen. And of course, playing in Denver brings its own problem, but I give this about a 75% of being the Patriots blowing out the Broncos, 15% that the Pats win in a close game, and 10% that the Broncos win.

Totally. I was listening to Denver station broadcast. You can hear them talking themselves into stiddy with each segment he got a little better. We'd probably do the same with Dobbs right ....Not! [Point being that it's more a lack of faith in nix than belief in stidham)

 

[TommyD4207]

Ray Lewis Killed two guys, because I'm not going against karma picks.

Somewhere between #2 and #3 though.

 

[WhatJustHappened]

RLDKAL1G

 

[UrbanCowboy]

I went with number two, but I do fear some kind of a freak stiddy miracle

 

[SVN]

I just hate playing in denver. Strange things happen there - the muffed punt, the champ bailey interception, even josh mcd beat us there with brady. Plus the recent fumbles we have had at home have had me worried . First time in denver for maye and co. So i am not that confident regardless who is starting for them.
I just hope we dont overcoach. Josh has a tendency to do that. We did that in 2015 at times . We really need to be able to run the ball to settle down.

 

[jboston19]

I appreciate you offering the original “RLKAG” option. I always pick whatever variation is offered in a poll here but am not a huge fan of the morphs. “MT” at the end is acceptable but I am definitely a purist in this regard.

I’m mostly confident in a win if the game is clean.

 

[BennyBledsoe]

Going against a team with its starting QB on the sideline SHOULD be a win.

SHOULD be.

But yeah, hi, I remember going against the Eagles and Nick Bleeping Foles (his official middle name).

 

[Le Numéro Douze]

We should win if we play a clean game.

Cannot turn the ball over as many times
We have to score if we create turnovers

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

Mostly confident. My main concern if whether the O line can deal with both the crowd noise and the pass rush.

Now I don't think Denver's D overall poses the same challenge as Houston's, but we have seen the Denver crowd noise play havoc even with Brady and better O lines.

 

[Betterthanmost]

Same as going into any game this year. We can only beat ourselves with dumb ****.