NFL GAME DAY DISCUSSION Wild Card Weekend Sunday NFL Games

[upstater1]

why would we sign him, we don't need him.

We have Jermaine Webb and Chism out there today.

Mac Hollins and Kayshon Boutte are hurt.

 

[farn]

The Prairie Cows defense is performing better than it should be.

Can they stop the run ? After not being a je to, Jax gave up trying.

 

[TommyD4207]

What in the world? I can't see how they overturned that Cooks catch! Because it may have grazed the ground?

Ground assisted in the catch. The anti-Bert Emmanuel.

 

[fnordcircle]

Yes, it's statistically sound to go for it there. With that said, it's also statistically sound to kick a field goal.

Just like negative reviews for a product are inherently more common than positive (people are more likely to publicly demonstrate negative feelings than positive), it's more common for people to lament a decision that doesn't work than laud a decision that does.

If a team goes for it and makes it and it changes the game in their favor, very few people reaffirm the decision, yet when it doesn't work, a lot of people proclaim that the decision making process was somehow unsound.

Unfortunately, all human beings are subject to cognitive bias. In this case, obviously analytics are not inherently "ruining" anything, as they're just a tool that must be applied by actual human beings. Perhaps the application is unsound, but that doesn't make the analysis unsound in and of itself.

One of the big things I've learned in life in general is to judge my choices based more on my thought process at the time I made the choice and whether or not I had done my due diligence.

I absolutely despise results-based evaluations of decisions because taken to its logical extreme it means that a person who dies in a car accident was stupid for ever getting into a car.

I 100% believe the "going for it on 4th" down pendulum has swung too far into the silly territory. Sometimes I felt Belichick was too conservative on 4th, as a for instance. But 4th and what 4 from their own 38 for the Bills yesterday was pure idiocy.

 

[EddardSnow67]

Another thing I think analytics fails to capture - momentum is a thing and I don't need your 'science' to tell me otherwise.

Yes, and getting the first down in that situation would have further increased Jacksonville's momentum.

I don't think anyone who acknowledges the benefits of analytics thinks they should be applied as the numbers suggest in all situations regardless of context. But momentum swings many times per game and the possibility of losing some momentum shouldn't necessarily cause a decision not to be made.

 

[NovaScotiaPatsFan]

Why do teams allow teams who take intentional delay of game penalties to get the extra 5 yards? I always thought you could decline that penalty.

 

[n1997y]

What in the world? I can't see how they overturned that Cooks catch! Because it may have grazed the ground?

Tip of the ball hit the ground and you could see that the seams rotated as a result. It was no catch, not controlled to survive contact with the ground.

 

[NE_Zealot]

Jax should just kneel it out. Trevor can easily get picked down here (or anywhere else)

 

[Pape]

No

 

[EddardSnow67]

One of the big things I've learned in life in general is to judge my choices based more on my thought process at the time I made the choice and whether or not I had done my due diligence.

I absolutely despise results-based evaluations of decisions because taken to its logical extreme it means that a person who dies in a car accident was stupid for ever getting into a car.

I 100% believe the "going for it on 4th" down pendulum has swung too far into the silly territory. Sometimes I felt Belichick was too conservative on 4th, as a for instance. But 4th and what 4 from their own 38 for the Bills yesterday was pure idiocy.

I think we're on the same page here.

 

[fnordcircle]

Yes, and getting the first down in that situation would have further increased Jacksonville's momentum.

I don't think anyone who acknowledges the benefits of analytics thinks they should be applied as the numbers suggest in all situations regardless of context. But momentum swings many times per game and the possibility of losing some momentum shouldn't necessarily cause a decision not to be made.

I believe the psychological impact of a 10 point swing (Jax loses 3 potential points, Bills net 7 on the subsequent TD) is generally more impactful than getting a 1st and goal.

 

[Pape]

nice scramble... gets ya out of the shadow of the endzone

 

[TommyD4207]

Yes, and getting the first down in that situation would have further increased Jacksonville's momentum.

I don't think anyone who acknowledges the benefits of analytics thinks they should be applied as the numbers suggest in all situations regardless of context. But momentum swings many times per game and the possibility of losing some momentum shouldn't necessarily cause a decision not to be made.

This totally ignores game management though.
Sure, 4th and 4 is like a 50-55% proposition.
A chipshot fieldgoal is like 98%.
It also gives you three points instead of 0.

It's the 2nd quarter of a playoff game. Take the points, adding an extra possession to Buffalo's load to come back is way more important.

 

[Pape]

stupid jags, give 5 right back

 

[Pape]

A chipshot fieldgoal is like 98%.
It also gives you three points instead of 0.

points = good

 

[EddardSnow67]

This totally ignores game management though.
Sure, 4th and 4 is like a 50-55% proposition.
A chipshot fieldgoal is like 98%.
It also gives you three points instead of 0.

It's the 2nd quarter of a playoff game. Take the points, adding an extra possession to Buffalo's load to come back is way more important.

Yeah I'm not exactly sticking my neck out for the decision. In fact, I'm more aligned personally with taking the points. I guess I really just don't envy the people having to make those decisions.

 

[TommyD4207]

points = good

Especially in a playoff game - especially with a lead, especially in the 2nd quarter.

 

[fnordcircle]

How on earth does Cam Little look like a RL version of one of those weird elf things from that 80s cartoon "The Littles."

 

[ScottishPatriots]

Clock was at 0:00, half time.

Jags blew it again

 

[Pape]

wow that was one hell of a catch

edit, all for nothing...