This isn’t directed at most people here because I think most people are being reasonable. Let’s face it. How many people before the season started realistically thought we’d be 11-2 before the loss to Buffalo? I think even most optimistic fans or homers would have had us at 9-4/8-5 tops. The sky isn’t falling after one loss and even if we lose again this season the sky isn’t falling. A 13-4 season would put us way ahead of schedule. This team can win in the playoffs and you don’t win them all. Even during our win streak I didn’t think this team was going 15-2. Sometimes you lose games you should win and the other team wants to win too. There were plenty of games we lost during the Brady era that we could or should have won. This team can compete for a championship and if we don’t make it I don’t think it’s because we weren’t good enough. I think it was because we just weren’t experienced enough. Enjoy the ride.
Of course people flipping out after a loss following a 10 game winning streak and acting like one loss undoes all of that winning and signals sure doom are just people you need to not listen to about really anything.
I disagree though with the “ahead of schedule” concept.
There is no schedule. Improvement or decline is not linear. It happens in big jumps or drops way more often than gradually progression (or digression).
Every season is one shot. It doesn’t translate forward.
Now you could argue roster building is a process and happens gradually but that’s not really true either. We have had roughly 50% turnover 2 years in a row.
When the season ends every team will use every resource to improve. Draft, free agency, trade, coaching changes, etc.
Since 32 teams compete against each other in a vacuum it’s a zero sum game. About half get better and about half get worse.
The fact that we stunk 2 years ago has no impact on whether we get better or worse next year. The quality of our transactions, the gains and the losses, improvement and decline of the players who stay. Thats true for all 32 teams. We don’t get better because we are “moving in a direction”.
There are really only 2 “schedules”
1) Compete for a SB
2) Accept that you can’t and hope you have a good off season and can next year.
There is no incremental improvement plan because next year you are fighting 31 other teams for the resources to get better.
I think the confusion comes because the raw talent level across the league isn’t all that different, but the strengths and weaknesses and how a team fits together makes good teams overachieve and poor teams underachieve.
It’s easier to make change to improve an underachieving team. Plus mediocrity is improvement. And it’s easy to lose a piece that makes overachieving hard.
Regression to mean is not incremental improvement or decline.
Good teams stay good because they keep their best players. Bad teams stay bad because they can’t replace enough bad players with good ones.
But there really is nothing any more like the old pre free agency 5 year plan where you fix problems step by step in the draft. That was when roster turnover was minimal. Now you are literally a brand new team every year.
So I am thrilled with 11 wins so far and will be thrilled with 14-3. But this team has put itself in a position to reach the only goal every team has, winning it all.
While a 11-6 season and first round loss would be a lot more enjoyable that 4-13 was ultimately we would be one of the 31 not a champion.
From this point on any result that isn’t winning the SB is equally disappointing. Some would be more enjoyable but ultimately you are 1 or you are one of the 31
