Home stretch: predict our record over the last 6 games

[Real fan 02]

Per playoffstatus.com, 1–5 gives them about a 70% chance of making the playoffs. 2–4 gives them a 99% chance.

That's very interesting.. of course don't want to go 1-5.. not having milt stinks..but we still have enough to compete on the defensive line.. we can sustain basically any injury save for Drake.

 

[KCSVEN]

I have them 5-1, Just seems like at some point they lose a close one.
Though if they do win the next 5 they might be in position to play scrubs vs Miami and still be 5-1.

Having the best QB goes a long way toward winning and we have that.
Try to figure out which teams have an offense that can keep up and that's the most likely loss if there is one.

-If Chase is suspended the Bengals should be a blow out win. No Chase, no potent offense.
-Jaxson Dart might give Pats fits with his mobility but also leads to sacks and some risky throws.
-Bills don't turn the ball over and they would be tough, IMO the toughest game left.
-Lamar and the Ravens the next toughest, especially on the road but Lamar has struggled the last 2 weeks and that defense can be scored on. But facing top QB on the road is never easy.
-Jets with a normal week for Pats to prepare? Jets will be playing out the string. Expect more Pats fans at the game than Jets fans. Blowout win IMO.
-Dolphins game hopefully won't matter but being at home with a warm weather team in January big advantage,

 

[Thelonious]

I suspect it'll be 4. I think we might struggle later this year against top tier teams who, regardless of previous record, will be rounding into shape, probably competing for a playoff position. The coach and QB are in place, but a solid roster, with passable depth, is not yet there, and we have been pretty fortunate re injuries, which might bite us a little as the effects of a long season and a thin roster take their toll.

I guess this will be seen by some as pessimistic, and maybe it is, though at the beginning of the year, 13 wins would hardly have been regarded in that light.

 

[Real fan 02]

I have them 5-1, Just seems like at some point they lose a close one.
Though if they do win the next 5 they might be in position to play scrubs vs Miami and still be 5-1.

Having the best QB goes a long way toward winning and we have that.
Try to figure out which teams have an offense that can keep up and that's the most likely loss if there is one.

-If Chase is suspended the Bengals should be a blow out win. No Chase, no potent offense.
-Jaxson Dart might give Pats fits with his mobility but also leads to sacks and some risky throws.
-Bills don't turn the ball over and they would be tough, IMO the toughest game left.
-Lamar and the Ravens the next toughest, especially on the road but Lamar has struggled the last 2 weeks and that defense can be scored on. But facing top QB on the road is never easy.
-Jets with a normal week for Pats to prepare? Jets will be playing out the string. Expect more Pats fans at the game than Jets fans. Blowout win IMO.
-Dolphins game hopefully won't matter but being at home with a warm weather team in January big advantage,

Good points. I also raised the questions of.. if.. say just if... we have everything secured with winning the division.. and by week 16 we can't improve our position do we sit guys?

 

[pazrul72]

They are too good to keep being good?

Yes. Eventually there will be a game, like the Celtics jacking up threes, where the ball just stops going in the net. No rhyme or reason to it, sometimes it's just not your day.

 

[Real fan 02]

Yes. Eventually there will be a game, like the Celtics jacking up threes, where the ball just stops going in the net. No rhyme or reason to it, sometimes it's just not your day.

In watching this Vrabel coached team.. what I've noticed is whenever they have encounter adversity in the game there are actual adjustments made. I expect this to continue..

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

9

 

[Ring 6]

Yes. Eventually there will be a game, like the Celtics jacking up threes, where the ball just stops going in the net. No rhyme or reason to it, sometimes it's just not your day.

Odd thing to predict.

 

[Patsfan1645]

I said 4-2 as I always look at what I think is the worst case scenario with Buffalo and Baltimore being the potential two losses. However, I do expect them to beat the bills. Baltimore I think is the most difficult game we have coming down the home stretch. They have two things which are the Pats kryptonite. They have an extremely mobile quarterback and a very good TE. Both of these have given the Pats all kinds of issues this year. Plus we add that its in Baltimore and the Ravens cant afford to lose any games as it stands. Goes back to the old saying....Which is faster the fox or the rabbit??? Its the rabbit, one is running for its dinner but the other is running for its life. Baltimore will be playing for its life the rest of the season. If the Pats do win I think they will have to out score Baltimore, will need probably 28+ to get it done.

 

[PatsFan2]

I said 4-2 as I always look at what I think is the worst case scenario with Buffalo and Baltimore being the potential two losses. However, I do expect them to beat the bills. Baltimore I think is the most difficult game we have coming down the home stretch. They have two things which are the Pats kryptonite. They have an extremely mobile quarterback and a very good TE. Both of these have given the Pats all kinds of issues this year. Plus we add that its in Baltimore and the Ravens cant afford to lose any games as it stands. Goes back to the old saying....Which is faster the fox or the rabbit??? Its the rabbit, one is running for its dinner but the other is running for its life. Baltimore will be playing for its life the rest of the season. If the Pats do win I think they will have to out score Baltimore, will need probably 28+ to get it done.

That's the easy part; knowing we will score at the very least 28...can our D hold our remaining opponents to 27?? A healthy Kayshon Boutte the emergence of Barefoot Mack Hollins and Pop off the bench is a handful for any Defense. We can literally outscore Teams now.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Im sticking with 13-4 as my safe prediction with one loss from the buffalo/baltimore pack and 1 stinker from the 4 easy games. I might update that if we make it through cincy and nyg without a loss (good possibility)

Unfortunately though 13-4 doesn’t look AS likely for the 1 seed as it did before denver beating kc. Now its hard to see Denver worse than 13-4 and very likely theyll have the tiebreaker over us unless our loss is to nyg and both their losses are to afc teams.

The stroud injury really hurts as Houston would have most probably beaten denver that day and i would have liked their chances against buffalo on thursday, not sure if he clears protocol by then.

 

[Grogan1980]

I have them 5-1, Just seems like at some point they lose a close one.
Though if they do win the next 5 they might be in position to play scrubs vs Miami and still be 5-1.

Having the best QB goes a long way toward winning and we have that.
Try to figure out which teams have an offense that can keep up and that's the most likely loss if there is one.

-If Chase is suspended the Bengals should be a blow out win. No Chase, no potent offense.
-Jaxson Dart might give Pats fits with his mobility but also leads to sacks and some risky throws.
-Bills don't turn the ball over and they would be tough, IMO the toughest game left.
-Lamar and the Ravens the next toughest, especially on the road but Lamar has struggled the last 2 weeks and that defense can be scored on. But facing top QB on the road is never easy.
-Jets with a normal week for Pats to prepare? Jets will be playing out the string. Expect more Pats fans at the game than Jets fans. Blowout win IMO.
-Dolphins game hopefully won't matter but being at home with a warm weather team in January big advantage,

I certainly hope the last game means something - It's the only game (same as last year) that my son can go to because of college. Last year was the oddest I've felt at a game - The "win" felt like a loss... But hearing about the Mayo firing while in the parking lot afterward and all ensuing cheering was memorable. It was the precursor to what is happening now.
Hoping this year that they are fighting for the #1 seed and secure a bye by winning that game!

 

[Patsfan1645]

That's the easy part; knowing we will score at the very least 28...can our D hold our remaining opponents to 27?? A healthy Kayshon Boutte the emergence of Barefoot Mack Hollins and Pop off the bench is a handful for any Defense. We can literally outscore Teams now.

We never seem to give up a quick TD, we force teams to drive the field and our O have had numerous drives of 10+ to get to the end zone. That being said there is only so much time and so many positions in our games that without turn overs I think it will be tough to beat the Pats if they can get to around 28 points.

But what do I know...it sounds good in my head

 

[PatsFan2]

We never seem to give up a quick TD, we force teams to drive the field and our O have had numerous drives of 10+ to get to the end zone. That being said there is only so much time and so many positions in our games that without turn overs I think it will be tough to beat the Pats if they can get to around 28 points.

But what do I know...it sounds good in my head.

And Big Play Maye ain't no "Checkdown Charlie."

 

[PatsFan2]

I have them 5-1, Just seems like at some point they lose a close one.
Though if they do win the next 5 they might be in position to play scrubs vs Miami and still be 5-1.

Having the best QB goes a long way toward winning and we have that.
Try to figure out which teams have an offense that can keep up and that's the most likely loss if there is one.

-If Chase is suspended the Bengals should be a blow out win. No Chase, no potent offense.
-Jaxson Dart might give Pats fits with his mobility but also leads to sacks and some risky throws.
-Bills don't turn the ball over and they would be tough, IMO the toughest game left.
-Lamar and the Ravens the next toughest, especially on the road but Lamar has struggled the last 2 weeks and that defense can be scored on. But facing top QB on the road is never easy.
-Jets with a normal week for Pats to prepare? Jets will be playing out the string. Expect more Pats fans at the game than Jets fans. Blowout win IMO.
-Dolphins game hopefully won't matter but being at home with a warm weather team in January big advantage,

IF we take care of business *keep winning* Jets game won't matter.

 

[FCB02062]

If the Patriots' running backs continue to have difficulty running the ball we are looking at 3-3. If the backs can actually get some consistent 4 or 5 yard gains on first down then we could have 5-1. The Patriots, after their last game and before this weekend's action, had the greatest # of running back carries for 0-2 in the NFL (per grok). the running backs/line consistently put Maye in 2d and 10 and 2d and 9. Such dismal carries won't kill you against a depleted offense in Tampa or ns the NYJ. But come Buffalo, Baltimore, and whomever the Pats meet in the playoffs, those **** runs on first down will kill them.
I went back over the NYJ PBP. By my count the Pats running backs carried on first down 14 times (1 carry for no gain was called back due to an accepted holding penalty on westover). They gained 44 yards on those 14 carries for a 3.14 ypc clip. Abysmal. EIGHT of the 14 runs were for 3 yards or fewer. EIGHT! more than half the Pats runs on first down put their QB in 2d and long situations.
They had a stretch beginning at 12:05 in the second quarter through 8:31 of the third in which they id not run for more than 2 yards on first down. during that stretch their gains on first down were 2, -1,1,1,1 2.
I've said it before, Maye's success is amazing for the simple fact that his accompanying running game absolutely ****ing sucks.

 

[Nikolai]

Honestly can't see them losing any of the last six games. "Any given Sunday" and all that, but other than the Billdos and Harbawls giving them some fits, I don't think there's a huge threat to a 6-0 finish, aside from resting starters in Week 18. Then again, if we've got the bye, I could see us playing just to avoid the "2-weeks of rust" thing that did the Clots in a few times during the 2000s.

 

[pazrul72]

Odd thing to predict.

How so? Are you implying that the guys who have shot 3 pointers the exact same way 10's of thousands of time are suddenly doing something different on the nights where they can't get it to go in to save their lives? It's the same thing with Drake bailing the offense out 5-8 times a game on 3rd and 10+. Eventually the ball will be an inch the other way due to no fault of his own and when that happens I see a flukey who saw that coming loss. It happens and I feel like the Patriots are due for one. I want it to happen in the reg season not the post season

 

[Ring 6]

How so? Are you implying that the guys who have shot 3 pointers the exact same way 10's of thousands of time are suddenly doing something different on the nights where they can't get it to go in to save their lives? It's the same thing with Drake bailing the offense out 5-8 times a game on 3rd and 10+. Eventually the ball will be an inch the other way due to no fault of his own and when that happens I see a flukey who saw that coming loss. It happens and I feel like the Patriots are due for one. I want it to happen in the reg season not the post season

Well first of all football and basketball are very differently. But more importantly it’s a freak occurrence, which is an odd thing to predict. Would you bet on Douglass getting 100 yards in a game, because it happened before?
Just as likely as something unusual hurting the Patriots would be something unusual helping them.
Maye being a great qb who converts 3rd downs isn’t fluky it’s who he is.

FYI he has “bailed the team out with 3rd and 10 conversions” 11 times in 11 games not 5-8 times a game. You over stated by 400%-700% to make your point.

 

[Dedhampatsfan]

5