Content Post Idle thoughts: the "NEXT" edition.

[FoxboroFan23]

Not offensive just a super bad idea. If Vrabel and company make the move for him, then I will trust it although I think its a terrible idea

Why is it a bad idea. I think it's been established majority of the board is against upgrading the WR position. Nobody has made an argument for why that is.

 

[dliverey44]

I loved Troy Brown as much as anyone, but holy ****, that's pretty disingenuous.

It was a typo he meant Piss

 

[dliverey44]

Why is it a bad idea. I think it's been established majority of the board is against upgrading the WR position. Nobody has made an argument for why that is.

I am not against upgrading at WR, I am against AJ Brown on this team. I explained why in another thread, but it boils down to him not being a fit on this team with a young QB that might feel pressure to get him the ball.

This is not the first time he has made a comment like this. He wants to be the focal point all the time and if not he gets pissy. People say that winning alleviates that, but it doesn't with him. He wants to prove he is better than the guy across from him, which is not bad (it is even wanted) but I think it would be a disaster in an offense/QB that spreads the ball the around. If AJ doesn't get the ball he throws tantrums

Edit:

 

[DoubleDeluxe]

Are they?

Diggs vs Brown is a pish
Boutte vs patten is a push
Henry>Wiggy
Redmond cs Stevenson probably a push

Pretty even.

Why would you be against upgrading the team? Patriots should be looking for avenues to improve every position, at all times. Being against upgrading the team is such a bizarre take

I'm not against upgrading at all.
I don't think WR is high on the list of needs.

And you're overestimating our 2001 pass catchers.
Brown was good, never a real alpha #1. Diggs most certainly was. Was Brown playing better than Diggs is now...debatable.
Boutte is better than Patten.
Our 3rd leading WR was Glenn who had 200 yards and only played 4 games.
Wiggins was awful.
Our 3rd leading WR on our SB run was Charles Johnson who had 2 catches for 22 yards in the playoffs.

Our WR/TEs this year are clearly better than our 2001 group, it's not even really debatable.

 

[FoxboroFan23]

I loved Troy Brown as much as anyone, but holy ****, that's pretty disingenuous.

Brown the year we won the Super Bowl - 16 games
101/1199/5

Diggs so far
39/456/0

Diggs projected on a 17 game schedule
95/1107/0

 

[FoxboroFan23]

I'm not against upgrading at all.
I don't think WR is high on the list of needs.

And you're overestimating our 2001 pass catchers.
Brown was good, never a real alpha #1. Diggs most certainly was. Was Brown playing better than Diggs is now...debatable.
Boutte is better than Patten.
Our 3rd leading WR was Glenn who had 200 yards and only played 4 games.
Wiggins was awful.
Our 3rd leading WR on our SB run was Charles Johnson who had 2 catches for 22 yards in the playoffs.

Our WR/TEs this year are clearly better than our 2001 group, it's not even really debatable.

Patten the superbowl year
51/749/4

Boutte
20/354/4

Boutte 17 game projection
49/860/10

Patten had a pretty decent playoff run too. Patten vs Boutte and Diggs vs Brown are fair comparisons. I agree that TE favors the current team. Douglas has had 1 good game out of 7.

 

[dliverey44]

Patten the superbowl year
51/749/4

Boutte
20/354/4

Boutte 17 game projection
49/860/10

Patten had a pretty decent playoff run too. Patten vs Boutte and Diggs vs Brown are fair comparisons. I agree that TE favors the current team. Douglas has had 1 good game out of 7.

This is part of the problem because players can have good games without having the ball in their hands. Pop has had several blocks to spring other players and he has run some good routes that have cleared/allowed others to produce. Vrabel has called out things that Pop does without the ball. Its the same thing with Stevenson, yes he fumbles a lot but he has made several key blocks.

 

[TommyD4207]

Why is it a bad idea. I think it's been established majority of the board is against upgrading the WR position. Nobody has made an argument for why that is.

That's also disingenuous. It's been made dozens of times, and it's really simple.

Using *draft capital*, for a rebuilding team, to potentially improve a position that's not a need, is how you turn into the current Miami Dolphins. Or the Jets of the last 50 years. Especially in the middle of a season when you're not in a real competition for a championship.

Say you bring in AJ Brown. Neat. How many more wins does he get you THIS year? Does he win you a championship THIS year? If the answer is no, and you not only have fewer darts to throw in the draft, to try to fill actual needs on your team, but also hamstringing your ability to acquire talent in free agency.

That's not how you build an NFL team. Maybe a fantasy team. Maybe a Madden team. But not an NFL team.

You trade for AJ Brown THIS year if it wins you a Championship THIS year. It's a move the Bills should make, for example, makes perfect sense (even though they can't afford it).

Chris Olave's different, he's still cost-controlled and younger, but the same principle applies. If you can get Olave for like a 5th rounder, you'd consider it, sure. A first-rounder is asinine when you have major holes you still need to fill.

 

[n1997y]

Say you bring in AJ Brown. Neat. How many more wins does he get you THIS year? Does he win you a championship THIS year? If the answer is no, and you not only have fewer darts to throw in the draft, to try to fill actual needs on your team, but also hamstringing your ability to acquire talent in free agency.

That's not how you build an NFL team. Maybe a fantasy team. Maybe a Madden team. But not an NFL team.

You trade for AJ Brown THIS year if it wins you a Championship THIS year. It's a move the Bills should make, for example, makes perfect sense (even though they can't afford it).

Chris Olave's different, he's still cost-controlled and younger, but the same principle applies. If you can get Olave for like a 5th rounder, you'd consider it, sure. A first-rounder is asinine when you have major holes you still need to fill.

Even if AJ gets you wins and a championship this year you need to ask what does he do for you over the next three to five years. If he gets you wins and championship contention this year but you would have competed for a championship every year for the next three to five if you hadn’t made that deal and making it makes you better this year but not as good for the next three to five is it a good deal?

 

[n1997y]

Why would you be against upgrading the team? Patriots should be looking for avenues to improve every position, at all times. Being against upgrading the team is such a bizarre take

If upgrading has no cost of course you upgrade.

But do you upgrade this year with a half season rental if it means you can’t upgrade and will probably be worse for the next three to five years?

 

[maust]

Why is it a bad idea. I think it's been established majority of the board is against upgrading the WR position. Nobody has made an argument for why that is.

The argument has been made, in fact it's made pretty damn well, many times.

 

[FoxboroFan23]

That's also disingenuous. It's been made dozens of times, and it's really simple.

Using *draft capital*, for a rebuilding team, to potentially improve a position that's not a need, is how you turn into the current Miami Dolphins. Or the Jets of the last 50 years. Especially in the middle of a season when you're not in a real competition for a championship.

Say you bring in AJ Brown. Neat. How many more wins does he get you THIS year? Does he win you a championship THIS year? If the answer is no, and you not only have fewer darts to throw in the draft, to try to fill actual needs on your team, but also hamstringing your ability to acquire talent in free agency.

That's not how you build an NFL team. Maybe a fantasy team. Maybe a Madden team. But not an NFL team.

You trade for AJ Brown THIS year if it wins you a Championship THIS year. It's a move the Bills should make, for example, makes perfect sense (even though they can't afford it).

Chris Olave's different, he's still cost-controlled and younger, but the same principle applies. If you can get Olave for like a 5th rounder, you'd consider it, sure. A first-rounder is asinine when you have major holes you still need to fill.

Thank you for providing a response.

WR is a need. The patriots pass catchers are a middle of the pack group. What positions do you consider the weakest on the roster? Safety is the biggest need and the only hole. Every other spot you have competence. The line is performing. The defense is performing.

I am not interested in trading for a 1 year rental, nor have I ever stated so. It should be noted that AJ Brown is under contract the following year, so there is no threat of him leaving in 2026. I would look to extend him and keep him beyond 2026.

You say NFL teams don't trade high picks for WR to build a team. The eagles traded a first round pick for AJ Brown and went on to win the Super Bowl.

The Patriots have a unique window to win a title with a QB and a LT on a rookie scale contract. They should look to capitalize on it. This opportunity shouldn't be taken for granted.

You are not getting Olave for a 5th. Other teams would outbid you.

 

[n1997y]

I don't care man I work construction I hear stuff 10x worse on the daily. I thought Ken took a few shots at younger people in his post and given that, it was fair game for a little good natured ribbing. I honestly didn't think it was that big of a deal.

I wasn't hiding from responses. I try not to post too much during work.

Am I wrong about the WR / skill position issue being a generational thing? I think my comment is spot on.

I stand by what I said. I absolutely would make trades to improve the roster including at WR. I don't agree with the idea the Patriots should punt on the season. I remember about 25 years winning the Super Bowl with a second year QB. There have been other teams in recent NFL history to win a superbowl with a rookie contract QB. Russell Wilson in Seattle, I believe Flacco and Eli Manning too, tho I'm not 100%.

So you’re telling me my STFU was too gentle? (jk)

You’re cool as far as I’m concerned. Us old heads aren’t as quick to get turned by the bright shiny WR squirrels as the ADD youngsters, so we can take a second look and decide it ain’t broke so no need to panic about fixing it. Or to see that the quick fix has a long term cost so it’s not as clear a win as might seem.

I don’t want to punt on the next several seasons trying to make this one a big splash before we are ready.

 

[FoxboroFan23]

If upgrading has no cost of course you upgrade.

But do you upgrade this year with a half season rental if it means you can’t upgrade and will probably be worse for the next three to five years?

It's not a half season rental. Brown is under contract for 2026. He's still young enough to give you 5+ years of play. AJ Brown was drafted by Mike Vrabel, he is on recording saying he wanted to play in NE.

It should also be noted that drafting a player is incredibly risky. There is probably a 50% chance the player you draft is a bust, and that's in the first round. Trading picks for a player will eat up your cap but it minimizes the chance that the newly acquired player can't perform. The Patriots have cap space due to cheap rookie contracts at LT and QB. They should take advantage of this competitive advantage.

 

[FoxboroFan23]

So you’re telling me my STFU was too gentle? (jk)

You’re cool as far as I’m concerned. Us old heads aren’t as quick to get turned by the bright shiny WR squirrels as the ADD youngsters, so we can take a second look and decide it ain’t broke so no need to panic about fixing it. Or to see that the quick fix has a long term cost so it’s not as clear a win as might seem.

I don’t want to punt on the next several seasons trying to make this one a big splash before we are ready.

Panic? Come on. I'm hoping to have some real conversation but people can't freak out over a difference of opinion.

Let me say this. I wanted no part of Jakobi Meyers, Davante Adams or Amari Cooper. I was skeptical of the Diggs signing because of his age and injury. I am not advocating to mortgage the future, trade for a half season rental or chase any and every WR on the market.

AJ Brown is a different situation worth pursuing

 

[Ring 6]

Before this game I posted that if the Pats were truly progressing they would score 30+ points and hold the Titans to no more than 13 points. Well 10 minutes into this game it didn't look like the Pats were doing ANY progressing and my hoped for score wasn't going to happen. Who knew they were never going to score again, and we would score on defense to get the 30 number.


https://www.patsfans.com/new-englan...atsfans-com-patriots-fan-forum.10/post-thread. It went exactly as planned, I guess, but it didn't really.


It's really late so I'll make this a short one which will gladden those with attention spans of gnats (which is pretty much everyone under 65). No that I've managed to insult the vast majority of the board, lets start to break down what I thought were the key lessons to learn from this game.


1. We only allowed 13 points and we ARE currently #10 in scoring defense, but I wonder if we are running into a reaction of losing our DC and having to hand it over to a relative inexperienced kid who I believe is doing a great job GIVEN the circumstances. BUT this slow start on defense seems to be a trend and as our schedule starts to toughen up the effects of these slow starts on defense are going to cause more issues.

It seems like we always come out VERY vanilla and suss out what their game plan is, while they steadily drive down the field and score a few times before we start to stem the tide. That's exactly what happened AGAIN in Tennessee. They score on 3 of the first 4 drives while we give them nothing but basic defensive looks will no blitzing on the first 3 drives and only late on the 4th. Later (2nd quarter on) we gave them lots of looks blitzing/dropping LB's and DB's all over the place and what do you know, they never score again (though they get into FG range a couple of times)

I'm not sure what I hope to see. It isn't like there is anyone out there who could come in and do much better without a major disruption. But I WOULD like to see at least some acknowledgement that there HAS been an issue at the start of games. They recognize it, and are doing something different to try and combat those slow starts.


2. Another OUTSTANDING performance by Maye. He showcased another star quality today. The man is FEARLESS. He is throwing that ball where others fear to tread. That throw to Boutte on the sideline had about a 3-inch margin of error. The one to Hollins on the other sideline had less. The TD to Hooper is another example of an extremely tight window.

Think about it. It's not like he is going to have to be wildly inaccurate for these unbelievable throws to turn into disasters. Literally just a matter of inches over 20-30yd throws. I think we need to get ready for that outcome to happen eventually. And how he response to that kind of inevitable adversity will be just another test he will have to overcome. Eventually Brady never let the picks bother him.

But right now, he is a pleasure to watch. 76 yd rushing, 91% completion percentage, especially with that wind blowing. WTF. But THIS week will be the real test (at least on one side of the ball). The Browns have one of the best defenses in the league and is the #1 in scoring. We have one of the more efficient offenses, though I'm not sure where our place is. I'd bet its top 10 and Cleveland's isn't, not close.

So, if we expect to actually get into the playoffs, and THEN to do more than just "participate" we are going to have play against good defenses.


3. Well, we FINALLY saw what a functional running game actually looks like. Just over 30 carries, close to 5ypc; Rham making cuts/running to daylight and using his vision finally and suddenly it looked like we had a professional running attack that had to be respected. Now we need to see the same jump from Henderson, who will be getting even more attention, since his running mate from OSU is doing so well in Cleveland.


4. Four sacks is a lot, especially to an undermanned squad who were missing their top 2 rushers after Simmons went out. They did do a lot of stunting and stemming with DB's as well as LBs coming at Maye and giving him a lot of attacking looks throughout the game. On the one people are blaming Wilson about most which Maye was hit hard by the DE who looped inside Campbell and ran by Wilson who was already engaged with someone else and didn't rub off to stop the DE. Campbell ended up pretty much blocking no one on that play.

Check it out if you recorded the game. It was a very good scheme design and well executed and it confused the rookies. A few plays later I saw Wilson get confused again and blocked no one, but Maye managed to get the pass off despite the non-block. Not Wilson's best day and he will have a bigger challenge this week. It will be interesting to see how he responds to the challenge.

BTW- it should be noted that one of the sacks was on a Maye rollout where he didn't pass and ran out of bounds about a foot behind the LOS, which makes it a sack..


5. I hope this game will end the WR discussions for this trade deadline. Our WR's are very good and all are starter quality with the exception of Williams and Chism. That are developing that all important "connection" with Maye that is SO important to a good passing attack and it will only improve. What a catch both Pop and Hooper made. They were extraordinary. When you are completing 90% of your passes your receivers are doing the job. Is a new WR going to do BETTER than 90%. The only thing it does is set back William's development. We have other more pressing needs.

Sorry if I offend those who believe ALL football problems can be solved by adding a WR and any WR who is available we should get.


6. Last week Chism looked painfully slow, but somewhat effective in that he got the ball over the 30 most of the time on KO's. Today, he looked painfully slow and was ineffective, and what was more troubling was that I didn't see the twitch I expected to see while he cut. Welker was slow too, but he flashed that short area "twitch" that was visible, so was Edelman. I just don't see in Chism so far. Maybe when he runs some routes.


OK it's 3am and I'm falling asleep at the key board. So I'm stopping here. I have some more thoughts. I'll just add them to the thread tomorrow. G'night

We are actually #5 in points allowed

 

[TommyD4207]

Thank you for providing a response.

WR is a need. The patriots pass catchers are a middle of the pack group. What positions do you consider the weakest on the roster? Safety is the biggest need and the only hole. Every other spot you have competence. The line is performing. The defense is performing.

I am not interested in trading for a 1 year rental, nor have I ever stated so. It should be noted that AJ Brown is under contract the following year, so there is no threat of him leaving in 2026. I would look to extend him and keep him beyond 2026.

You say NFL teams don't trade high picks for WR to build a team. The eagles traded a first round pick for AJ Brown and went on to win the Super Bowl.

The Patriots have a unique window to win a title with a QB and a LT on a rookie scale contract. They should look to capitalize on it. This opportunity shouldn't be taken for granted.

You are not getting Olave for a 5th. Other teams would outbid you.

AJ Brown is under contract for next year. For 30 million dollars. An extension would cost even more. He would be 29 at the start of 2026. He would be 31 and in the back end of his prime, if we're lucky, by the time Maye hits his option year.

I did not say 'NFL Teams don't trade high picks for a WR'. I have no idea where you got that from.

The Eagles traded a first round pick for AJ Brown because...wait for it...they were in championship contention and were a WR away from putting them over the top. They had a great offensive line, a competent QB, another young WR who was a #1, and a sick defense. The Patriots are definitely not that. You say 'safety is the only hole', which, isn't true, linebacker is barely competent at the NFL level, there's no depth at corner, no depth at edge rusher, and right tackle is also a major need. Morgan Moses is below average. An NFL player, which is an upgrade over last year, but still below average.

You're absolutely right that they should capitalize on Maye and Campbell still on rookie contracts. That's the point. That doesn't mean you push all your chips in with a very flawed roster in year 2 of Maye's contract.

Look at the Dolphins, it's a perfect example, because it's exactly what they did. They mortgaged their future with Tua on a rookie contract, and traded for Tyreek Hill, when Jaylen Waddle was already on the roster, and signed him to a monster contract. And did the same with Bradley Chubb. And Jalen Ramsey and MInkah Fitzpatrick.

The result? One playoff appearance, zero playoff wins, and 2 years down the road, 1-6 this year, in complete cap hell, and no hope for the future. Ramsey and Fitzpatrick both traded away. No depth. Oh, and Tua for 4 years, 218 million, because they don't have the draft capital to improve the position.

But they were awesome for 6 weeks in 2023.

 

[Ring 6]

Once again you post very lucid and insightful observations. Thanks so much for your work putting these together.

I agree with all you said here. I’ve seen the same pattern of starting the games laying back to see what the opposing offense is trying to do, with the result being at least a couple of drives resulting in easy scores for them. We are fortunate we are playing weak teams and we have a strong offense so we can overcome the holes we dig ourselves into, but it’s got the potential to bite us so it needs to be fixed.

I think you’re right that it’s at least partly a consequence of our DC situation. I think I’d posit that we start in a simple vanilla base because there isn’t enough staff bandwidth to analyze the upcoming opponent each week and script a defense designed to anticipate what they’re likely to do at the start of the game. I’m being charitable assuming it’s just the lack of bandwidth to do all that additional work while being down a key contributor/leader. It may be that the problem is really the absence of that leader and his contributions as necessary guidance to do that missing preparation. Regardless it seems that the defense is starting out passive, reading the approach the offense is taking and then reacting to make adjustments after the opponent has had a couple of successful drives.

I haven’t paid attention to even whether we are in zone or man to start. I’d like to know more about how we’re aligned because that might change some of my thinking. I’ll try to take a look at that. But even without that I’m wondering if it would be a better approach to prepare a handful of defensive calls, maybe a half dozen, based on even a partial analysis of opponent personnel, past alignments and tendencies, and such. Basically be prepared to defend more aggressively at the start if they come out in anything resembling what you’ve expected, and be prepared to fall back into the generic vanilla otherwise. At least it will seem less passive and slow to react and adjust. Of course that’s just my perspective as an amateur looking in from the outside, and frustrated by the initial passivity. I really do think they’ve got to do something etching different, and it doesn’t seem they’re doing what I suggested so maybe it’d be worth a try.

Or maybe they really do need to have an experienced DC in the job of DC.

What i see happening is we come out guarding against big plays. For everything you scheme to prevent, you weaken another area. What has worked against us early is short underneath passing. Playing strong run D like we are and taking away most big plays we are forcing offenses to be patient and they don’t stay that way.
It’s probably a function of the QBs we are facing, they can’t sustain it, but against Allen we shut him out in the first half.

No doubt we are playing to stop every drive, but given the options of how to defend we are less concerned about he dink and dunk stuff and it seems to be a sound approach over 60 minutes.

 

[Ring 6]

So you’re telling me my STFU was too gentle? (jk)

You’re cool as far as I’m concerned. Us old heads aren’t as quick to get turned by the bright shiny WR squirrels as the ADD youngsters, so we can take a second look and decide it ain’t broke so no need to panic about fixing it. Or to see that the quick fix has a long term cost so it’s not as clear a win as might seem.

I don’t want to punt on the next several seasons trying to make this one a big splash before we are ready.

AJ Brown would be idiotic. The cap hits plus picks for a WR when we are running the most efficient passing game in the NFL is foolish. That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be trying to improve the team to make a run.
I have no doubt we are going to be in the hunt, and likely in the race for the 1 seed. Until I see a defense that can handle Maye, I’d put us up against anyone. Who is there to fear?
And the beauty of it is every week that Maye goes out there and does everything they ask him to increases the confidence of the play caller and expands the offense.
We have the core in place that will keep us in the hunt for a long time. A few tweaks here and there could be the difference in the post season

 

[ViperGTS]

They aren't trading for Brown or Olave. They will be looking for diamond in the rough kinda guys for late round picks or pick swaps. Young, cost controlled dude that either need a change of scenery or are misused etc.