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Content Post Idle thoughts: the "NEXT" edition.

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Before this game I posted that if the Pats were truly progressing they would score 30+ points and hold the Titans to no more than 13 points. Well 10 minutes into this game it didn't look like the Pats were doing ANY progressing and my hoped for score wasn't going to happen. Who knew they were never going to score again, and we would score on defense to get the 30 number.


https://www.patsfans.com/new-englan...atsfans-com-patriots-fan-forum.10/post-thread. It went exactly as planned, I guess, but it didn't really.


It's really late so I'll make this a short one which will gladden those with attention spans of gnats (which is pretty much everyone under 65). No that I've managed to insult the vast majority of the board, lets start to break down what I thought were the key lessons to learn from this game.


1. We only allowed 13 points and we ARE currently #10 in scoring defense, but I wonder if we are running into a reaction of losing our DC and having to hand it over to a relative inexperienced kid who I believe is doing a great job GIVEN the circumstances. BUT this slow start on defense seems to be a trend and as our schedule starts to toughen up the effects of these slow starts on defense are going to cause more issues.

It seems like we always come out VERY vanilla and suss out what their game plan is, while they steadily drive down the field and score a few times before we start to stem the tide. That's exactly what happened AGAIN in Tennessee. They score on 3 of the first 4 drives while we give them nothing but basic defensive looks will no blitzing on the first 3 drives and only late on the 4th. Later (2nd quarter on) we gave them lots of looks blitzing/dropping LB's and DB's all over the place and what do you know, they never score again (though they get into FG range a couple of times)

I'm not sure what I hope to see. It isn't like there is anyone out there who could come in and do much better without a major disruption. But I WOULD like to see at least some acknowledgement that there HAS been an issue at the start of games. They recognize it, and are doing something different to try and combat those slow starts.


2. Another OUTSTANDING performance by Maye. He showcased another star quality today. The man is FEARLESS. He is throwing that ball where others fear to tread. That throw to Boutte on the sideline had about a 3-inch margin of error. The one to Hollins on the other sideline had less. The TD to Hooper is another example of an extremely tight window.

Think about it. It's not like he is going to have to be wildly inaccurate for these unbelievable throws to turn into disasters. Literally just a matter of inches over 20-30yd throws. I think we need to get ready for that outcome to happen eventually. And how he response to that kind of inevitable adversity will be just another test he will have to overcome. Eventually Brady never let the picks bother him.

But right now, he is a pleasure to watch. 76 yd rushing, 91% completion percentage, especially with that wind blowing. WTF. But THIS week will be the real test (at least on one side of the ball). The Browns have one of the best defenses in the league and is the #1 in scoring. We have one of the more efficient offenses, though I'm not sure where our place is. I'd bet its top 10 and Cleveland's isn't, not close.

So, if we expect to actually get into the playoffs, and THEN to do more than just "participate" we are going to have play against good defenses.


3. Well, we FINALLY saw what a functional running game actually looks like. Just over 30 carries, close to 5ypc; Rham making cuts/running to daylight and using his vision finally and suddenly it looked like we had a professional running attack that had to be respected. Now we need to see the same jump from Henderson, who will be getting even more attention, since his running mate from OSU is doing so well in Cleveland.


4. Four sacks is a lot, especially to an undermanned squad who were missing their top 2 rushers after Simmons went out. They did do a lot of stunting and stemming with DB's as well as LBs coming at Maye and giving him a lot of attacking looks throughout the game. On the one people are blaming Wilson about most which Maye was hit hard by the DE who looped inside Campbell and ran by Wilson who was already engaged with someone else and didn't rub off to stop the DE. Campbell ended up pretty much blocking no one on that play.

Check it out if you recorded the game. It was a very good scheme design and well executed and it confused the rookies. A few plays later I saw Wilson get confused again and blocked no one, but Maye managed to get the pass off despite the non-block. Not Wilson's best day and he will have a bigger challenge this week. It will be interesting to see how he responds to the challenge.

BTW- it should be noted that one of the sacks was on a Maye rollout where he didn't pass and ran out of bounds about a foot behind the LOS, which makes it a sack..


5. I hope this game will end the WR discussions for this trade deadline. Our WR's are very good and all are starter quality with the exception of Williams and Chism. That are developing that all important "connection" with Maye that is SO important to a good passing attack and it will only improve. What a catch both Pop and Hooper made. They were extraordinary. When you are completing 90% of your passes your receivers are doing the job. Is a new WR going to do BETTER than 90%. The only thing it does is set back William's development. We have other more pressing needs.

Sorry if I offend those who believe ALL football problems can be solved by adding a WR and any WR who is available we should get.


6. Last week Chism looked painfully slow, but somewhat effective in that he got the ball over the 30 most of the time on KO's. Today, he looked painfully slow and was ineffective, and what was more troubling was that I didn't see the twitch I expected to see while he cut. Welker was slow too, but he flashed that short area "twitch" that was visible, so was Edelman. I just don't see in Chism so far. Maybe when he runs some routes.


OK it's 3am and I'm falling asleep at the key board. So I'm stopping here. I have some more thoughts. I'll just add them to the thread tomorrow. G'night
 
4. Four sacks is a lot, especially to an undermanned squad who were missing their top 2 rushers after Simmons went out. They did do a lot of stunting and stemming with DB's as well as LBs coming at Maye and giving him a lot of attacking looks throughout the game. On the one people are blaming Wilson about most which Maye was hit hard by the DE who looped inside Campbell and ran by Wilson who was already engaged with someone else and didn't rub off to stop the DE. Campbell ended up pretty much blocking no one on that play.

Check it out if you recorded the game. It was a very good scheme design and well executed and it confused the rookies. A few plays later I saw Wilson get confused again and blocked no one, but Maye managed to get the pass off despite the non-block. Not Wilson's best day and he will have a bigger challenge this week. It will be interesting to see how he responds to the challenge.

BTW- it should be noted that one of the sacks was on a Maye rollout where he didn't pass and ran out of bounds about a foot behind the LOS, which makes it a sack..
Yes, I saw that in the realtime broadcast. IIRC the DE actually looped behind the player engaged with Wilson and went inside between Wilson and Bradbury who was also already engaged. Very well designed and executed, exploiting the inexperience of the two rookies. It will be interesting to see if they get that thrown at them again, and how they handle it. Rookie growing pains, for sure. GDT was calling for Wilson’s head, and for the entire OL to be replaced. Seems a bit of an overreaction to me.
 
1. We only allowed 13 points and we ARE currently #10 in scoring defense, but I wonder if we are running into a reaction of losing our DC and having to hand it over to a relative inexperienced kid who I believe is doing a great job GIVEN the circumstances. BUT this slow start on defense seems to be a trend and as our schedule starts to toughen up the effects of these slow starts on defense are going to cause more issues.

It seems like we always come out VERY vanilla and suss out what their game plan is, while they steadily drive down the field and score a few times before we start to stem the tide. That's exactly what happened AGAIN in Tennessee. They score on 3 of the first 4 drives while we give them nothing but basic defensive looks will no blitzing on the first 3 drives and only late on the 4th. Later (2nd quarter on) we gave them lots of looks blitzing/dropping LB's and DB's all over the place and what do you know, they never score again (though they get into FG range a couple of times)

I'm not sure what I hope to see. It isn't like there is anyone out there who could come in and do much better without a major disruption. But I WOULD like to see at least some acknowledgement that there HAS been an issue at the start of games. They recognize it, and are doing something different to try and combat those slow starts.
Once again you post very lucid and insightful observations. Thanks so much for your work putting these together.

I agree with all you said here. I’ve seen the same pattern of starting the games laying back to see what the opposing offense is trying to do, with the result being at least a couple of drives resulting in easy scores for them. We are fortunate we are playing weak teams and we have a strong offense so we can overcome the holes we dig ourselves into, but it’s got the potential to bite us so it needs to be fixed.

I think you’re right that it’s at least partly a consequence of our DC situation. I think I’d posit that we start in a simple vanilla base because there isn’t enough staff bandwidth to analyze the upcoming opponent each week and script a defense designed to anticipate what they’re likely to do at the start of the game. I’m being charitable assuming it’s just the lack of bandwidth to do all that additional work while being down a key contributor/leader. It may be that the problem is really the absence of that leader and his contributions as necessary guidance to do that missing preparation. Regardless it seems that the defense is starting out passive, reading the approach the offense is taking and then reacting to make adjustments after the opponent has had a couple of successful drives.

I haven’t paid attention to even whether we are in zone or man to start. I’d like to know more about how we’re aligned because that might change some of my thinking. I’ll try to take a look at that. But even without that I’m wondering if it would be a better approach to prepare a handful of defensive calls, maybe a half dozen, based on even a partial analysis of opponent personnel, past alignments and tendencies, and such. Basically be prepared to defend more aggressively at the start if they come out in anything resembling what you’ve expected, and be prepared to fall back into the generic vanilla otherwise. At least it will seem less passive and slow to react and adjust. Of course that’s just my perspective as an amateur looking in from the outside, and frustrated by the initial passivity. I really do think they’ve got to do something etching different, and it doesn’t seem they’re doing what I suggested so maybe it’d be worth a try.

Or maybe they really do need to have an experienced DC in the job of DC.
 
Or maybe they really do need to have an experienced DC in the job of DC.
The Pats are ranked 9th in points allowed per game. I might be misreading your post, but changing the DC, when a tweak might be all that is required, seems a bit extreme. You might be suggesting throwing out the baby with the bath water.

Having a Top 10 defense is usually a reason to be happy.
 
After several dismal seasons to see this progress makes me proud to have never wavered in my Pats fandom.. to have seen this much progress in one year is a testament to our HC and his infectious belief in Pats players.

Concerned about slow starts and "vanilla' offensive and defensive schemes..

Drake Maye is even better than advertised, he makes what was predicted to be a mediocre WR group into a credible group.. but there is always room for improvement. Reminds me somewhat of #12 who somehow made some pedestrian WR's into stars. Some of Maye's passes yesterday were ridiculous.

Still kind of concerned as to how they have not really found a role for Henderson.

Am a very happy Pats fan today, now we are on to Cleveland and their vaunted defense.
 
I would still trade a first for AJ Brown is the opportunity was there. Would give the Pats a real shot at winning the Super Bowl. Sorry to offend the nursing home more life-experienced & football-wiser crowd. I want what I want and I want it now!!
for a wide receiver.

FIFY (your post) and added your Avatar.
 
Coming out vanilla and seeing what the other team is going to defend you with has been happened since the first part of the dynasty. 07 is just a complete anomoly but other than that there were specific instance where they've wanted to take away a defenses aggressive nature early. The Steelers come to mind with doing a Branch reverse and then a play action slugo. I do think against a team like the Chiefs should they see them down the line or even the Buffalo rematch we're not going to be able to take over a quarter to get into the flow of the game.

The next three games are going to be really telling. Cleveland as you said has a number one defense that could ruin our day. If they have good ball security I expect we'll win even if it's a bit of a low scoring game and even a bit ugly. But I definitely do not think they are to be taken lightly. Atlanta took care of Buffalo just like we did. There's a bit up and down week to week but if we catch them on an up week they could definitely pull an upset. Then going to TB we're clearly the underdog there in what I expect will be a great game. If we can go 2-1 during this stretch I'll have even more confidence in this team.

BTW, if this team goes 5-5 the rest of the way and wins 10 games they'll make the playoffs and everyone will be disappointed even though almost everyone would have considered 10-7 a terrific season before it started. The bar has been raised but let's not lose sight of how far they've come in a short period of time and lose perspective on how much fun it's been to be competitive week to week again.

The OL is still a concern. They're definitely better than the last half dozen years but I also think Josh protects them with his play designs and Drake bails them out with his pocket awareness and mobility. Getting the run unlocked, to a degree, yesterday was encouraging. As the weather gets nasty in the northeast they'll need that.

I disagree with trading for AJ at this point. Our receivers are not a problem. If someone like Arcane or Phillips becomes available from Miami I'd rather will a position of need.
 
I would still trade a first for AJ Brown is the opportunity was there. Would give the Pats a real shot at winning the Super Bowl. Sorry to offend the nursing home crowd.

It has nothing to do with a nursing home. You are an idiot if you think this team is just 1 player away from the Super Bowl.
 
Also an idiot if he thinks the biggest position of need on this team is WR.
Funny how good/great/elite QB play with proper OC coaching and scheme makes up for it, huh? Maye raises guys up, JMcD puts them in position to succeed.

Man, it's so nice to have professional football back in Foxboro.
 
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3. Well, we FINALLY saw what a functional running game actually looks like. Just over 30 carries, close to 5ypc; Rham making cuts/running to daylight and using his vision finally and suddenly it looked like we had a professional running attack that had to be respected. Now we need to see the same jump from Henderson, who will be getting even more attention, since his running mate from OSU is doing so well in Cleveland.

That's more about getting to run against the 25th worse running defense in the NFL rather than anything else.

CLE is ranked 3rd, BTW.

5. I hope this game will end the WR discussions for this trade deadline. Our WR's are very good and all are starter quality with the exception of Williams and Chism. That are developing that all important "connection" with Maye that is SO important to a good passing attack and it will only improve. What a catch both Pop and Hooper made. They were extraordinary. When you are completing 90% of your passes your receivers are doing the job. Is a new WR going to do BETTER than 90%. The only thing it does is set back William's development. We have other more pressing needs.

Sorry if I offend those who believe ALL football problems can be solved by adding a WR and any WR who is available we should get.

Looks like you under-estimated the WR fetishists out there...
 
The Pats are ranked 9th in points allowed per game. I might be misreading your post, but changing the DC, when a tweak might be all that is required, seems a bit extreme. You might be suggesting throwing out the baby with the bath water.

Having a Top 10 defense is usually a reason to be happy.
Yeah, you are misreading it. I don't see the idea of replacing Zack at all. All the defensive structure and terminology is put in. It would be extremely disruptive to bring in a new voice, especially when the product isn't bad in the end. They ARE in the top ten in scoring D.

No, my comment is more about the unlucky situation to have Williams get sick, than trying to replace him mid-season. It's just me questioning why so often this season we have started out so slowly on defense.
 
Yeah, you are misreading it. I don't see the idea of replacing Zack at all. All the defensive structure and terminology is put in. It would be extremely disruptive to bring in a new voice, especially when the product isn't bad in the end. They ARE in the top ten in scoring D.

No, my comment is more about the unlucky situation to have Williams get sick, than trying to replace him mid-season. It's just me questioning why so often this season we have started out so slowly on defense.
If you remember the Pats commonly started slowly with BB. It would drive posters nuts. It is an approach to get past the prescritped offensive plays without showing the defensive cards.

They tried to start out fast on defense against the Saints when Davis blitzed early on. It led to a 50 yard pass play to Olave. There is good and bad to all approaches. I agree it can be frustrating.
 
Before this game I posted that if the Pats were truly progressing they would score 30+ points and hold the Titans to no more than 13 points. Well 10 minutes into this game it didn't look like the Pats were doing ANY progressing and my hoped for score wasn't going to happen. Who knew they were never going to score again, and we would score on defense to get the 30 number.
https://www.patsfans.com/new-englan...atsfans-com-patriots-fan-forum.10/post-thread. It went exactly as planned, I guess, but it didn't really.

It's really late so I'll make this a short one which will gladden those with attention spans of gnats (which is pretty much everyone under 65). No that I've managed to insult the vast majority of the board, lets start to break down what I thought were the key lessons to learn from this game.

1. We only allowed 13 points and we ARE currently #10 in scoring defense, but I wonder if we are running into a reaction of losing our DC and having to hand it over to a relative inexperienced kid who I believe is doing a great job GIVEN the circumstances. BUT this slow start on defense seems to be a trend and as our schedule starts to toughen up the effects of these slow starts on defense are going to cause more issues.

It seems like we always come out VERY vanilla and suss out what their game plan is, while they steadily drive down the field and score a few times before we start to stem the tide. That's exactly what happened AGAIN in Tennessee. They score on 3 of the first 4 drives while we give them nothing but basic defensive looks will no blitzing on the first 3 drives and only late on the 4th. Later (2nd quarter on) we gave them lots of looks blitzing/dropping LB's and DB's all over the place and what do you know, they never score again (though they get into FG range a couple of times)

I'm not sure what I hope to see. It isn't like there is anyone out there who could come in and do much better without a major disruption. But I WOULD like to see at least some acknowledgement that there HAS been an issue at the start of games. They recognize it, and are doing something different to try and combat those slow starts.

2. Another OUTSTANDING performance by Maye. He showcased another star quality today. The man is FEARLESS. He is throwing that ball where others fear to tread. That throw to Boutte on the sideline had about a 3-inch margin of error. The one to Hollins on the other sideline had less. The TD to Hooper is another example of an extremely tight window.

Think about it. It's not like he is going to have to be wildly inaccurate for these unbelievable throws to turn into disasters. Literally just a matter of inches over 20-30yd throws. I think we need to get ready for that outcome to happen eventually. And how he response to that kind of inevitable adversity will be just another test he will have to overcome. Eventually Brady never let the picks bother him.

But right now, he is a pleasure to watch. 76 yd rushing, 91% completion percentage, especially with that wind blowing. WTF. But THIS week will be the real test (at least on one side of the ball). The Browns have one of the best defenses in the league and is the #1 in scoring. We have one of the more efficient offenses, though I'm not sure where our place is. I'd bet its top 10 and Cleveland's isn't, not close.

So, if we expect to actually get into the playoffs, and THEN to do more than just "participate" we are going to have play against good defenses.

3. Well, we FINALLY saw what a functional running game actually looks like. Just over 30 carries, close to 5ypc; Rham making cuts/running to daylight and using his vision finally and suddenly it looked like we had a professional running attack that had to be respected. Now we need to see the same jump from Henderson, who will be getting even more attention, since his running mate from OSU is doing so well in Cleveland.

4. Four sacks is a lot, especially to an undermanned squad who were missing their top 2 rushers after Simmons went out. They did do a lot of stunting and stemming with DB's as well as LBs coming at Maye and giving him a lot of attacking looks throughout the game. On the one people are blaming Wilson about most which Maye was hit hard by the DE who looped inside Campbell and ran by Wilson who was already engaged with someone else and didn't rub off to stop the DE. Campbell ended up pretty much blocking no one on that play.

Check it out if you recorded the game. It was a very good scheme design and well executed and it confused the rookies. A few plays later I saw Wilson get confused again and blocked no one, but Maye managed to get the pass off despite the non-block. Not Wilson's best day and he will have a bigger challenge this week. It will be interesting to see how he responds to the challenge.

BTW- it should be noted that one of the sacks was on a Maye rollout where he didn't pass and ran out of bounds about a foot behind the LOS, which makes it a sack..

5. I hope this game will end the WR discussions for this trade deadline. Our WR's are very good and all are starter quality with the exception of Williams and Chism. That are developing that all important "connection" with Maye that is SO important to a good passing attack and it will only improve. What a catch both Pop and Hooper made. They were extraordinary. When you are completing 90% of your passes your receivers are doing the job. Is a new WR going to do BETTER than 90%. The only thing it does is set back William's development. We have other more pressing needs.

Sorry if I offend those who believe ALL football problems can be solved by adding a WR and any WR who is available we should get.

6. Last week Chism looked painfully slow, but somewhat effective in that he got the ball over the 30 most of the time on KO's. Today, he looked painfully slow and was ineffective, and what was more troubling was that I didn't see the twitch I expected to see while he cut. Welker was slow too, but he flashed that short area "twitch" that was visible, so was Edelman. I just don't see in Chism so far. Maybe when he runs some routes.

OK it's 3am and I'm falling asleep at the key board. So I'm stopping here. I have some more thoughts. I'll just add them to the thread tomorrow. G'night
I think the interim DC is doing fine. Opposition frequently does well on first possession and then the defense adjusts. We seemed to do that yesterday. I don't know that Williams would do any better.
 
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