Post Your Way too Early Season Predictions For Maye/Receivers

[Ian]

Last season, Maye finished with 2276 yards along with 15 touchdowns and 10 INTs, based on a terrible offensive line and a rough group of wideouts through the 13 games he appeared in.

Looking at who they have ... I think they'll be better but they have some tough calls to make, and here's what I have:

WR (6) Stefon Diggs, Demario Douglas, Mack Hollins, Kyle Williams, Efton Chism III, Kayshon Boutte
RB (3) Rhamondre Stevenson, Antonio Gibson, TreVeyon Henderson
TE (3) Hunter Henry, Austin Hooper, Jaheim Bell

It sounds like, based on what Reiss Adam Schefter hinted at a while ago, they explored moving Boutte and didn't find a taker, and I feel like they'd probably rather keep him than let him walk, unless he's struggling to pick up their new offense. That being said, I think Ja'Lynn Polk is now the one under pressure, and it's entirely possible he becomes Tyquan Thornton in terms of being someone they'd risk cutting and bringing back to the practice squad unless someone claims him.

I just don't know if they'd go with 7, given their needs elsewhere, and I guess it would probably come down between him and Boutte. Many of us thought Thornton would get snatched up, but he didn't, and Polk hasn't yet shown anything to make him overly desirable. Meanwhile, Bourne may also simply be the odd man out due to the numbers and the fact that they'd probably prefer to keep younger players.

With that in mind, based on that line-up, here's what I would project Maye throwing for in 2025:

2025 Drake Maye July Predicted Total:
4,002 yards, 31 TDs, 7 INTs.

By Receivers/TEs, etc:
Diggs: 978 yards, 8 TDs
Douglas: 634 yards, 3 TDs
Hollins: 348 yards, 4 TDs
Henry: 625 yards, 7 TDs
Chism: 453 yards, 3 TDs
Stevenson: 178 yards, 1 TD
Gibson: 127 yards, 1 TD
Henderson: 358 yards, 3 TDs
Hooper: 185 yards, 1 TD
Bell: 116 yards

The numbers might seem high, but when I broke it down by receiver/running back and their season totals, it doesn't seem as crazy. And the players I have are just guesses with possible starters, not who I think will make it onto the roster. I do think one or more names will land on the RB group, and I'm not 100% on the TE group, either.

But post your own thoughts and play around with your own numbers player-by-player and see where you stand. You can use the PatsPicker app to grab the players if you need to:

PatsPicker Patriots Roster Prediction Tool

Make your predictions on who will make the final Patriots 53 man roster with our roster cutdown tool.

www.patsfans.com

But like I said, if you throw out just an overall total for Maye, you'll probably find that when you start going player-by-player, it messes with your numbers. I had a much lower overall total initially until I started trying to spread it across the guys I thought he'd be throwing to, then I had to raise it. Again, definitely kind of a fun exercise.

EDITED: Left Kyle Williams and Kayshon Boutte out - thanks to @PatsFan2 for the heads up.

2025 Drake Maye July Predicted Total:
4,296 yards, 33 TDs, 8 INTs.

By Receivers/TEs, etc:
Diggs: 978 yards, 8 TDs
Douglas: 634 yards, 3 TDs
Hollins: 285 yards, 4 TDs
K.Williams: 385 yards
Boutte: 425 yards, 2 TDs
Henry: 625 yards, 7 TDs
Chism: 453 yards, 3 TDs
Stevenson: 178 yards, 1 TD
Gibson: 127 yards, 1 TD
Henderson: 358 yards, 3 TDs
Hooper: 185 yards, 1 TD
Bell: 116 yards

 

[signbabybrady]

I'd like to see more wins than losses, I'd like to see at least 2/1 TDs/INTs, I'd like to see close to if not more than 4K passing, and I'd like to continue to see a good amount of rushing.

 

[TheRainMaker]

I see a Peyton Manning year two jump in 1999 I'm sure none of thought was going to happen. Remember when they went up 28-7 with ease in week 2 of that season? That was an "oh ****" moment that the Colts were for real and not backing down. They leapfrogged everyone in the division after going 3-13 a year prior. Rams also had a lot of nice additions in FA and the draft that led to their turnaround into an NFC juggernaut.

Diggs is going to help slow things down for Maye and they will have competent enough WR's to support him. Any boost from Williams or even Chism will be icing on the cake. Henry and Hooper are a solid tandem at TE.

The running game should be improved with the additions and returns on OL. I see a bounce back season from Rham and Henderson providing a spark. Gibson was a really nice addition last season and is very comparable to when they signed Sammy Morris in 2007.

Lots of "if's", but I think the Pats can be a surprise team in the AFC this season. If Maye becomes a good QB like many project him to, the Bills are in serious trouble.

 

[Brotherblues]

Raw stats can be meaningless without the context of what his peers are doing at the same time.

Give me:

Top 12 in yards per attempt.
Top 12 in passer rating.

 

[Brick27]

Raw stats can be meaningless without the context of what his peers are doing at the same time.

Give me:

Top 12 in yards per attempt.
Top 12 in passer rating.

Good point. Would be very pleased if he is borderline top third of the league in various measures of production.

 

[Water Boy]

That being said, based on that line-up, here's what I would project Maye throwing for in 2025:

2025 Drake Maye July Predicted Total:
4,002 yards, 31 TDs, 7 INTs.

By Receivers/TEs, etc:
Diggs: 978 yards, 8 TDs
Douglas: 634 yards, 3 TDs
Hollins: 348 yards, 4 TDs
Henry: 625 yards, 7 TDs
Chism: 453 yards, 3 TDs
Stevenson: 178 yards, 1 TD
Gibson: 127 yards, 1 TD
Henderson: 358 yards, 3 TDs
Hooper: 185 yards, 1 TD
Bell: 116 yards

definitely kind of a fun exercise.

I definitely think 4000 yards is possible for Maye but I'd be shocked if he only threw 7 ints. If he throws 30 TDs I think he'll have about 15 picks. I'm sure that will be a point of emphasis for JMCD, but its baked into Maye's DNA right now.

 

[Pape]

how about ranges instead of specific numbers... might try a break down after camp, and we have a better idea of 1) who the WRs will be... 2) how Diggs looks in his recovery... 3) whatever else i am seemingly missing...
yards: 3900-4200
attempts: 475-525
completions: 323-357
completion %: 68% ish
TDS: 24-30
Ints: 12-15

 

[Ian]

how about ranges instead of specific numbers... might try a break down after camp, and we have a better idea of 1) who the WRs will be... 2) how Diggs looks in his recovery... 3) whatever else i am seemingly missing...
yards: 3900-4200
attempts: 475-525
completions: 323-357
completion %: 68% ish
TDS: 24-30
Ints: 12-15

LOL, we don't need to be exact, and this is just a "way too early projection" that we'll probably do again right after cutdowns happen.

The idea is to throw out some predictions based on who you think will be around, and how many yards / TDs you think they might put up. We have over a month, and we're all probably going to be wrong, so it's just an exercise to get a feel for what people might be thinking when they start attaching real totals to players.

Like I said, doing the last part changed the totals I had for Maye (I had them a little lower), but after making player predictions and giving them their #s, they went up because I couldn't imagine a few players coming in lower than where I put them.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Chism: 453 yards, 3 TDs

Seems about right . . . For the games after the bye.

Seriously, though, Welker had 434 yards, 0 TDs as a rookie, so that's not an unreasonable projection.

 

[jmt57]

3,550 yards, 25 TD, 10 Int, 70% completion rate, 7.4 yards per attempt


I don't think it will be anything outrageous as I am guessing that the Pats will attempt to control the clock and run more often relative to other teams.
In addition I am still in a 'believe-it-when-I-see-it' mode in regards to the offensive line.


This is where those numbers above would have ranked in 2024:
- 17th in passing yards (between Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams)
- 10th in TD (tied with Daniels and Jordan Love)
- 6th in completion rate (between Daniels and Geno Smith)
- 14th in TD:Int ratio (tied with Matthew Stafford)
- 14th in yards per attempt (tied with Daniels and Russell Wilson)

 

[Thunderhead]

I genuinely think damage was done to Maye's development last year under Mayo and the rest of that trash coaching staff. That clown show combined with throwing to the worst WR group and operating behind the worst OL in the entire league lead to some bad habits - TOs, hero ball, etc. Seemed like it was really getting to him at times by the end of the year.

In addition, he's working with his 4th OC in 4 years in a notoriously complex scheme under McDaniels, so my expectations are certainly lower than most here. Would love to see the leap to bonafide top 10 QB in the league, but will be surprised if that happens. I expect he may be slower to develop a la Josh Allen (not comparing the talent/ceiling, just the time required to reach potential).

 

[Ian]

how about ranges instead of specific numbers... might try a break down after camp, and we have a better idea of 1) who the WRs will be... 2) how Diggs looks in his recovery... 3) whatever else i am seemingly missing...
yards: 3900-4200
attempts: 475-525
completions: 323-357
completion %: 68% ish
TDS: 24-30
Ints: 12-15

Honestly, I ended up doing it in reverse. I listed out the guys I thought would be on the roster and then looked at the totals from last year and started filling in the numbers. Then I added them up and did Maye’s totals, which were significantly higher from where I initially had them. Like @ctpatsfan77 said, some of them might be a little high, but it was kind of cool to make some guesses on how individual guys might do this year.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Honestly, I ended up doing it in reverse. I listed out the guys I thought would be on the roster and then looked at the totals from last year and started filling in the numbers. Then I added them up and did Maye’s totals, which were significantly higher from where I initially had them. Like @ctpatsfan77 said, some of them might be a little high, but it was kind of cool to make some guesses on how individual guys might do this year.

Ummm. . . . I was joking that it was way too low.

 

[Ian]

Ummm. . . . I was joking that it was way too low.

lol, I had it higher, but I had to adjust it because I know McDaniels likes using tight ends and I had Henry’s totals too low. When I added it up, had I left Chism’s and another where they were, Maye would have been closer to 4400 yards which felt like a lot.

That was the interesting part of doing it this way, seeing the ripple effect from player to player. Honestly, give it a shot and see what you come up with. It's kind of cool.

 

[farn]

I’m thinking that if Maye plays 16 or 17 games, passing over 4000 if much much more likely than only 7 INTs. Hell, he might have 4 of those bouncing off a receiver, into the defender’s hands INTs !

 

[n1997y]

I genuinely think damage was done to Maye's development last year under Mayo and the rest of that trash coaching staff. That clown show combined with throwing to the worst WR group and operating behind the worst OL in the entire league lead to some bad habits - TOs, hero ball, etc. Seemed like it was really getting to him at times by the end of the year.

In addition, he's working with his 4th OC in 4 years in a notoriously complex scheme under McDaniels, so my expectations are certainly lower than most here. Would love to see the leap to bonafide top 10 QB in the league, but will be surprised if that happens. I expect he may be slower to develop a la Josh Allen (not comparing the talent/ceiling, just the time required to reach potential).

I’m not going to try putting numbers on projected performances yet. Except to say that off the top of my head when I read Ian’s OP my first thought was around 3500 passing yards for Maye?

But that’s with a big question mark, because I think Thunderhead is right. I’m expecting the Pats to emphasize the run this season, at least to start. That will take some pressure off Drake and his OL. Knowing Josh I think he’ll use the run to set up the pass, and then he’ll use the pass to set up the run. Biggest thing will be fixing Maye’s bad habits, especially his propensity to play hero ball.

That tendency leads to INTs and concussions so they really need to fix it. If they don’t we will be talking about performance numbers for Dobbs not Maye.

But I think they will fix it. The RBs will deliver a reliable running game, and the plethora of WRs will deliver dependable alternatives. Hopefully there will be a number of posters on here frustrated at the failure of a WR1 to emerge by midseason. Instead the RBs will catch a lot of play action passes, and Maye will spread the ball around like Brady in his early (pre Randy) days when his favorite receiver was the open one.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

and Maye will spread the ball around like Brady in his early (pre Randy) days when his favorite receiver was the open one.

As someone put it, after the 2007 revamp he was basically able to go from "taking whatever was available" to "taking whatever he wanted."

I get why we don't want Maye turning gunslinger, though I admit to dreaming of Maye putting up 50-burgers.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Last season, Maye finished with 2276 yards along with 15 touchdowns and 10 INTs, based on a terrible offensive line and a rough group of wideouts through the 13 games he appeared in.

Looking at who they have ... I think they'll be better but they have some tough calls to make, and here's what I have:

WR (6) Stefon Diggs, Demario Douglas, Mack Hollins, Kyle Williams, Efton Chism III, Kayshon Boutte
RB (3) Rhamondre Stevenson, Antonio Gibson, TreVeyon Henderson
TE (3) Hunter Henry, Austin Hooper, Jaheim Bell

It sounds like, based on what Reiss hinted at a while ago, they explored moving Boutte and didn't find a taker, and I feel like they'd probably rather keep him than let him walk, unless he's struggling to pick up their new offense. That being said, I think Ja'Lynn Polk is now the one under pressure, and it's entirely possible he becomes Tyquan Thornton in terms of being someone they'd risk cutting and bringing back to the practice squad unless someone claims him.

I just don't know if they'd go with 7, given their needs elsewhere, and I guess it would probably come down between him and Boutte. Many of us thought Thornton would get snatched up, but he didn't, and Polk hasn't yet shown anything to make him overly desirable. Meanwhile, Bourne may also simply be the odd man out due to the numbers and the fact that they'd probably prefer to keep younger players.

That being said, based on that line-up, here's what I would project Maye throwing for in 2025:

2025 Drake Maye July Predicted Total:
4,002 yards, 31 TDs, 7 INTs.

By Receivers/TEs, etc:
Diggs: 978 yards, 8 TDs
Douglas: 634 yards, 3 TDs
Hollins: 348 yards, 4 TDs
Henry: 625 yards, 7 TDs
Chism: 453 yards, 3 TDs
Stevenson: 178 yards, 1 TD
Gibson: 127 yards, 1 TD
Henderson: 358 yards, 3 TDs
Hooper: 185 yards, 1 TD
Bell: 116 yards

The numbers might seem high, but when I broke it down by receiver/running back and their season totals, it doesn't seem as crazy. And the players I have are just guesses with possible starters, not who I think will make it onto the roster. I do think one or more names will land on the RB group, and I'm not 100% on the TE group, either.

But post your own thoughts and play around with your own numbers player-by-player and see where you stand. You can use the PatsPicker app to grab the players if you need to:

PatsPicker Patriots Roster Prediction Tool

Make your predictions on who will make the final Patriots 53 man roster with our roster cutdown tool.

www.patsfans.com

But like I said, if you throw out just an overall total for Maye, you'll probably find that when you start going player-by-player, it messes with your numbers. I had a much lower overall total initially until I started trying to spread it across the guys I thought he'd be throwing to, then I had to raise it. Again, definitely kind of a fun exercise.

I have no idea how you arrived at these numbers. Did you take their previous season totals and increase them by a certain percentage?

I know that Maye should certainly improve on his rookie numbers but it's difficult to project because he will be starting in a brand new system with Josh Mcdaniel's offense. How well he picks it up will determine his success in New England. We all know he has elite physical tools but can he absorb the new system and how long will be the adjustment period before it clicks?

We know that Josh Mcdaniels is kind of an offensive guru and he even managed to hide Mac Jones deficiencies for a season. What will he be able to get out of Drake Maye? DM has way better physical talent, but that offensive system is hard to pick up and learn. Many good WRs have failed to pick it up. Obviously TB12 mastered the system, but can a 2nd year QB who has never seen it before pick it up just like that?

I like that we got an experienced veteran like Diggs to give Maye that #1 option to look for. I'm not sure how well Campbell will play his rookie year, but obviously if he can protect Maye's blind side that will be a big help compared to last year.

I'm gonna estimate the cumulative effects of the talent additions to offense will help Maye. But the effect of picking up the new system will prompt some ups and downs, there will be an adjustment period. By 8 games in, Maye should be comfortable with the system if it's something that he can pick up.

So I'm predicting games 1-8 will be the adjustment period and 9-17 we should see Maye hitting on all cylinders. With that basis of thought he will get the bulk of his production in the second half of the season.

Let's examine the schedule since it's out.
Weeks 1-8
1. Raiders Home. Big start to the season. Maye will face off against Brady's Raiders. They were 4-13 last season. So this is an opportunity for Maye to pick up his first win at home. I like our odds here.
2. Dolphins Away. We always play bad at Miami and the Dolphins are stacked on offense. We probably lose this one and it's not gonna be pretty either.
3. Steelers home. This is going to be a tough game. Steelers were a better overall team last year. My head tells me the Steelers win this but we will have an outside shot to make it competitive.
4. Panthers home. They were 5-12 last season. Did they improve more in the offseason than we did? I'd say this is a very good chance to pick up our 2nd win of the season. If we start the season 2-2 that will be a nice improvement over last year's pace.
5. Bills away. We lose. Not going to speculate by how much but we're not ready to beat these guys on the road yet.
6. Saints away. Saints were 5-12. It's still going to be tough beating them on the road. This game could go either way but it should be close.
7. Titans home. Vrable faces his former team. They were 3-14 terrible last season. This should be a great chance for Vrable to pick up a sweet revenge win.
8. Browns home. Browns were 3-14 last season. This should be another opportunity to pick up a win against a bad team. If we win 3/4 against the bad teams in this soft part of the schedule that would put us at 5-3 over the first half of the season.

Of course Drake Maye needs to bring his A game to ensure that we get those wins, but there's a real opportunity considering we are playing quite a few teams who were pretty weak last season. If Maye can keep his TD to INT ratio relatively clean, at least 2:1 I can see him having a very good sophomore season at least in the first half even though there will be some adjustment period. There's a reasonable chance he can put up 3,500 yards and 30 TDs over the course of the season. Probably a little over that because we play 17 games now.

 

[WhatJustHappened]

3700 27/13
450yds rushing, 4tds and 3 fumbles.
Bell doesn't make the 53.

 

[n1997y]

…
We know that Josh Mcdaniels is kind of an offensive guru and he even managed to hide Mac Jones deficiencies for a season. What will he be able to get out of Drake Maye? DM has way better physical talent, but that offensive system is hard to pick up and learn. Many good WRs have failed to pick it up. Obviously TB12 mastered the system, but can a 2nd year QB who has never seen it before pick it up just like that?

I just hope Josh keeps his perspective focused on team success not just maximizing Drake Maye as the next stellar QB.

In other words, give primary attention to making the running game a weapon, and the favored weapon, even if that means Drake isn’t the marquee poster child for the Patriots offense. To me that’s the only way Drake will learn he doesn’t have to play hero, that in fact he should resist that temptation as much as possible to let his teammates make plays.

I’m really worried that his tendency to try to play hero ball last season will turn out to be a part of his nature not just a reaction to the hot mess Mayo created, and that it will in the long run be a flaw that prevents developing a strong team around him. So I’m really hoping Josh keeps the passing game under wraps until the team identity has developed as more of a team and less of Drake Maye’s supporting cast.

I’m thinking back to how they were introduced as a team for Super Bowl XXXVI, and thinking Drake Maye’s hero ball is incompatible with that team spirit. One thing I’ll be watching to see is whether Josh nips that problem in the bud. If he doesn’t it’ll be the last and most serious damage Mayo does to the franchise.