A Different View On Our Three starting WR's (presuming health)

[mgteich]

I presume that all are healthy and no one is on PUP or IR.
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Diggs and Williams should be 2 starters.

Who is the 3rd?

So many of us have presumed that it is Douglas as our slot receiver, or even Chism as our slot receiver.
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I suspect that we may be underestimating Hollins. IMO, he is a better player than Douglas. I think that we would have a stronger and more flexible 3-man WR team with Williams, Hollins and Diggs. If roles need to be labeled (no really necessary fir Josh), then Diggs can certainly be the slot receiver.
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IF THIS IS OUR BASE SET OF STARTERS, THEN
1) the backups are not at all clear. I could see Bourne, Boutte, Polk or Douglas as the #4 or #5. I note that the #5 will almost always be inactive.
2) I am fine with carrying a developmental 6th who would not be expected to be active without two injuries. There is always room for one or two of these. Polk, Baker and Chism are possibilities.
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My personal choice for our active top four is probably unpopular: Diggs, Williams, Hollins and Bourne. I think that this is a strong unit for 2-3 years, and much, much stronger than what we have had. This leaves room for 1-2 players who could develop. For me, the other five are all developmental players: Boutte, Douglas, Polk, Baker, Chism.
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CONSIDERATION
Some think that we are paying Bourne too much. I disagree. We have the money. Let's field our strongest team.

 

[Ring 6]

I think you overate Hollins. He has been in the league 7 years and has more than 18 receptions twice. The last 2 years were 49 receptions combined. Outside of 1 season he’s about a 1 catch a game guy.

Now he will get more playing time than his numbers warrant but that is because of blocking.

Douglass has been more productive in his 2 seasons and is a good fit in this offense.

 

[Clonamery]

Bourne is the 5th wr if everyone is healthy. Bourne has been active 53 of 68 games as a Patriot. Has averaged 32 yds per active game the last 3 years.

 

[n1997y]

I presume that all are healthy and no one is on PUP or IR.
=============================
Diggs and Williams should be 2 starters.

Who is the 3rd?

So many of us have presumed that it is Douglas as our slot receiver, or even Chism as our slot receiver.
=========
I suspect that we may be underestimating Hollins. IMO, he is a better player than Douglas. I think that we would have a stronger and more flexible 3-man WR team with Williams, Hollins and Diggs. If roles need to be labeled (no really necessary fir Josh), then Diggs can certainly be the slot receiver.
=======
IF THIS IS OUR BASE SET OF STARTERS, THEN
1) the backups are not at all clear. I could see Bourne, Boutte, Polk or Douglas as the #4 or #5. I note that the #5 will almost always be inactive.
2) I am fine with carrying a developmental 6th who would not be expected to be active without two injuries. There is always room for one or two of these. Polk, Baker and Chism are possibilities.
=========
My personal choice for our active top four is probably unpopular: Diggs, Williams, Hollins and Bourne. I think that this is a strong unit for 2-3 years, and much, much stronger than what we have had. This leaves room for 1-2 players who could develop. For me, the other five are all developmental players: Boutte, Douglas, Polk, Baker, Chism.
======
CONSIDERATION
Some think that we are paying Bourne too much. I disagree. We have the money. Let's field our strongest team.

Not unpopular with me. I like it.

Hollins and Williams outside and Diggs in the slot gives Josh lots of options. Bourne is the best fourth with them as his skill set allows him to replace any one of them without much drop off. Douglas has flaws in his game, needs to improve at being where he’s supposed to be. Boutte has flashed a few times but needs more time to put together a body of work showing he’s consistently at that level.

I think Chism will make the roster because he’s got moves none of the others can match, and he won’t make it to the PS. To make room for him I expect one or two of Douglas, Boutte, or Bourne to be either traded or cut, and of those three I think Bourne may have the best chance to stay based on his past history with Josh. We’ll have to wait and see.

 

[n1997y]

Bourne is the 5th wr if everyone is healthy. Bourne has been active 53 of 68 games as a Patriot. Has averaged 32 yds per active game the last 3 years.

He will likely surpass that average, based on his past history playing for Josh.

 

[DC Patriots]

I’m prepared to be ok with any outcome. Outside of Diggs and Williams none of the folks we are taking about will be the WR #1 on a playoff NFL team.

But I don’t really see a strong argument for Bourne over Boutte unless you’re really convinced last year was an aberration.

Boutte made a big jump last year. He has a good connection with Maye. You’re trying to develop a young quarterback. Why get rid of the WR he seems to work best with.

Boutte is also younger and he is a good deal cheaper. I hear you about the best team, but I’m not sure it makes sense to just waste money all other things being equal. There are still a few guys on the free agent market that may be worth kicking the tires on and some more cuts may be coming as teams pare down rosters or realize they can’t sign players. One advantage the Patriots have is money. Why give that up for nothing?

But again, I don’t really have a dog in the fight, I’m just curious

 

[Nunchucks]

I expect that Diggs, Williams, and Douglas will see the field the most. Douglas has been getting some snaps on the outside as well.

 

[signbabybrady]

How do you presume Williams to be a starter?

 

[mgteich]

Hollins and Williams outside and Diggs in the slot gives Josh lots of options. Bourne is the best fourth with them as his skill set allows him to replace any one of them without much drop off.

this

 

[mgteich]

How do you presume Williams to be a starter?

No one is presuming. We are projecting.

I think that Williams is FAR, FAR ahead of everyone as a potential starter (other than Diggs and Hollins).

 

[mgteich]

.

But I don’t really see a strong argument for Bourne over Boutte unless you’re really convinced last year was an aberration.

Boutte made a big jump last year. He has a good connection with Maye. You’re trying to develop a young quarterback. Why get rid of the WR he seems to work best with.

Boutte is also younger and he is a good deal cheaper. I hear you about the best team, but I’m not sure it makes sense to just waste money all other things being equal.

I don't think that other things are equal.

Boutte had a good year by having a better season than a truly terrible WR group.

IMO, Bourne is a much better, and much more experienced NFL player. As has posted by another, Bourne is good enough for there not to be an enormous drop-off if Bourne replaces any one of them in their role.

To me, Boutte is competing with Douglas, Polk, Baker, and Chism. To me, all have developmental potential. Camp and the scrimmages will tell staff a lot and perhaps has already done so with regard to one or two of these. players.

 

[signbabybrady]

No one is presuming. We are projecting.

I think that Williams is FAR, FAR ahead of everyone as a potential starter (other than Diggs and Hollins).

I think your underestimating Pop.

 

[BobDigital]

The problem with predicting the year is that there is so much youth and flux already built into it. Where do Williams and Chism fit in in week 1 vs week 18? It could and should be a massive difference. Douglas seems to be changing his role compared to last year, what does he end up doing for us and where? How much do we see Hollins? Is he just there for certain packages where we want more height or given the unknowns will we see a lot more of him early on?

As for the Bourne/Boutte situation. Any role they have really becomes bigger or smaller depending on where Diggs/Williams/Douglas/Chism are. As while they are solid WRs, they are not as dynamic outside as Diggs/Williams can be. Nor as good from the slot as Chism should be for us. Nor as they as flexible in their role as Douglas looks to be set to be. IMO the case for both or either mostly rest on how long we think everything takes to come together.

If Williams/Chism aren't ready early. Suddenly you need more help from guys ready to go. However assuming Diggs is good for week 1, i really don't see why you would need both. If you need to start the year leaning on Diggs/Douglas/Boutte/Hollins that to me is good enough. We have Hunter/Hopper at TE and RBs who can catch. We have no lack of mouths. We lack guys who headline in their positions. Bourne and Boutte don't add to that.

Oddly enough right now the most solid thing seems to be Diggs will be a big part of the offense from week 1 on.

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Now as for how I THINK things work out. I will break the season into 3 parts.

Cut downs/weeks 1-6 - Bourne is gone (for cap reasons and cause Boutte is just as good with more upside) and we go with 6 <Diggs/Williams/Douglas/Chism/Hollins/Boutte. Polk and Baker go to PS...

Diggs is ready to go week 1 and looks good. Williams is seen but not featured too much... Snaps limited to about 50% a game. He makes splash plays on occasion but is more just getting his feet wet and a feel for the game while he works his way in. Lots of Douglas from the slot early. Boutte sees a lot of snaps during this time. Chism is often a scratch or STer with a few snaps early. Without the downfield game REALLY working well yet he doesn't have as much to do and needs to learn how to handle the NFL anyway... I do think he will translate well, but going from D1.5 to the NFL is a big change and won't be instant for him.

Weeks 7-12

By this time Williams is now a full time starter and is consistently drawing coverage. Diggs is still Diggs making plays all over the field. Now that he has seen and felt NFL speed and has a feel for the game Chism get increased snaps. Not a full time starter, but regularly seeing a large amount of snaps. Douglas now splits time with him and spells Williams/Diggs when they need a rest. So is still seeing full time snaps pretty much. Boutte's role as decreased but is still featured a lot on multiple WR sets and in a backup role. Hollins role has now shrunk to mentor, red zone work and STs.

Week 13-18

Chism is now a true full time starter and making is presence felt in the slot every week. Williams is still doing is thing, but a bit more polished and consistent. Diggs is Diggs. These are now the main 3 options. Douglas is often the first guy callled in to give them a break when they need to rest. Boutte's role is minimized more now, but we still see him in the hurry up and on some snaps more specialized to him and Douglas between the 20s. But in this example Douglas being the more flexible one gives him a massive leg up as we want continuitiy with Maye. As injuries happen over the course of the year (hopefully nothing big) Boutte will see more snaps of course.

 

[mgteich]

I think your underestimating Pop.

perhaps

I think others are overvaluing him to think that he is automatically one of the three starters, not considering Hollins or Bourne. Much of media discussion of Douglas is whether he will even be able to succeed in the Josh Offense. Many of them question whether he will even make the 53.
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Douglas is certainly having his chances to prove himself to Vrabel and Josh.

 

[Real fan 02]

How do you presume Williams to be a starter?

Hollins is a gimmick WR, I don't have a problem him personally. As I've said as you know.. Diggs, pop and Williams will see the majority of Drakes passes at wr..

 

[Real fan 02]

perhaps

I think others are overvaluing him to think that he is automatically one of the three starters, not considering Hollins or Bourne. Much of media discussion of Douglas is whether he will even be able to succeed in the Josh Offense. Many of them question whether he will even make the 53.
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Douglas is certainly having his chances to prove himself to Vrabel and Josh.

Please remember Hollins was signed before we got Diggs and drafted Williams. Also he hasn't practiced all OTA and minicamp. While he's a very nice guy, have to do something more than bro hugs and walking around barefoot to earn your keep. Competition is going to be fierce this camp.

 

[signbabybrady]

perhaps

I think others are overvaluing him to think that he is automatically one of the three starters, not considering Hollins or Bourne. Much of media discussion of Douglas is whether he will even be able to succeed in the Josh Offense. Many of them question whether he will even make the 53.
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Douglas is certainly having his chances to prove himself to Vrabel and Josh.

Coach speaks very highly of him.

 

[Toofy]

Am I the only 1 who feels like Vrabel has aged like fine wine ... He looks more a stud right now from a looks perspective as compared to his youthful days ...

 

[stinkypete]

I agree that Bourne should make the active roster. He’s been productive when healthy and has been useful on trick plays in the McDaniels offense.

We need to also consider health of the unit as a whole as a reason to carry out best 5. If Diggs gets hurt again, or returns weakened, or behaves badly and gets cut, we don’t want to stunt Maye’s development by making him throw to Polk or Baker.

I think we carry 6 - Diggs, Williams, Douglas, Bourne, Hollins and Chism, with Chism inactive most weeks as he is developed into the slot role long term.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Am I the only 1 who feels like Vrabel has aged like fine wine ... He looks more a stud right now from a looks perspective as compared to his youthful days ...

This is weird. But there is nothing wrong with that, especially during Pride month.