Draft comparisons - the "would've'/could've" thread.

[patfanken]

OK, the glow of the draft is fast fading into the reality that all the pats on the back are meaningless, because we won't know the true value of this draft for another 3 years. So now for the next 3 months we have nothing really new to discuss other than an occasional FA signing, and news and gossip from around the league. So I thought we could fill some time with some discussion of some draft picks that MIGHT have been. There was one in particular that immediate comes to mind, and I'll start with that one and you can add others.

Henderson vs Burdon - It's the most obvious, but since it's my thread, I get to pick first.

In the post draft analysis, I've been hearing what a LOT of analysts saying that Burden in the late 30's was one of the steals of the draft. Interesting in that he was right AFTER the Pats picked a RB in Henderson. I know Burden had supporters on this board, so how do you feel about the Pats passing him and taking Henderson.

Here's my take - Burden was projected by most to be a mid-first round pick. Some felt he was the best WR in the draft. He fell for questions about his work ethic, love of football, and other potential character issues. Now we all know that these kind of "questions" are sometimes just BS, sometimes not. But it did cause him to drop almost a full round and we could have had him in round 2 and no one questions his talent.

My take - So why do I think that the Pats chose Henderson over him. I'll give you 2 reasons. First impact. Henderson is probably going to get 10-15 rushing attempts, and around 5+ targets/game. Supposedly he has explosive play potential every time he touches the ball HE is likely going to have a bigger immediate impact for the Pats, than Burden, who's likely 5-10 targets per game will have for the Bears in his rookie year.

Now if Burden pans out and he becomes elite, that take might flip as he gets more touches as a number 1 receiver. Not to say Henderson's role won't increase if HE pans out and becomes a true dual threat.

the 2nd reason, in an interview on MacAfee, I found out that Jason Licht the Buc's GM had a GREAT draft stat. Every one of his draft picks since 2019 was on an NFL roster in the 2024 season. they might not all have worked out for the Bucs, but he proved he can draft NFL talent.

So when the asked why, he deferred and said his best asset is the ability to hire good people, but then remarked that after having some issues in the past, he decided to make non-football things like character and love of football more important than just pure talent, and it has worked out for them. Kind of like the same philosophy Wolfe and Vrabel used in this draft.
At any rate this a comparison that we will be able to talk about for the next 4 years at least as to who made the right pick. Now a Bears/Pats rivalry looms in the future due to the Maye/Williams, Henderson/Burden comparisons everyone will make. Your thoughts?

I took the most obvious one, but there must be others.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Henderson every time. The takes I heard on Burden throughout the draft process were that they went into the season expecting big things from him, but that he disappointed those expectations due to lack of effort, literally quitting on his team during games and going through the motions. Ultimately that’s why he slipped the way he did. I expect Henderson to have a major impact for the Patriots, and believe he will be second only to Jeanty in OROY.


Henderson was my favorite pick by the Patriots in this draft. The more I saw him play the more I believed he is going to be a great player for them. He has everything you could want in a running back.

 

[stinkypete]

I’d say the second most obvious what if would have been taking someone else at 4, and trying to move up for a LT or hope one fell to #38.

We know now that Ersery would have been available at #38. If Campbell has to move to LG, and Jeanty emerges as a superstar, then we could look back at Jeanty + Ersery rather that Campbell + Henderson.

 

[Uptown]

Yeah, but we got Kyle Williams who’s better than Burden.

 

[Huckleberry1]

I’d say the second most obvious what if would have been taking someone else at 4, and trying to move up for a LT or hope one fell to #38.

We know now that Ersery would have been available at #38. If Campbell has to move to LG, and Jeanty emerges as a superstar, then we could look back at Jeanty + Ersery rather that Campbell + Henderson.

I would rather have Campbell and Henderson.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I’d say the second most obvious what if would have been taking someone else at 4, and trying to move up for a LT or hope one fell to #38.

We know now that Ersery would have been available at #38. If Campbell has to move to LG, and Jeanty emerges as a superstar, then we could look back at Jeanty + Ersery rather that Campbell + Henderson.

We don't actually know that with certainty. If NE takes Jeanty, clearly the Raiders have to take someone else. Maybe they take Campbell and nothing else has to change, but what if they took, say, McMillan? Then the Panthers have to take someone else, and so on, and maybe Ersery's off the board too before 38.

 

[Grogan14]

Yeah, but we got Kyle Williams who’s better than Burden.

I suspect they may have preferred Williams to Burden

Also Henderson is a true multi purpose back, pass block, explosive runner, catch

They are trying to get Maye help. Henderson can help in more ways on more plays than Burden.
I think its a great pick

 

[scott99]

I suspect they may have preferred Williams to Burden

Also Henderson is a true multi purpose back, pass block, explosive runner, catch

They are trying to get Maye help. Henderson can help in more ways on more plays than Burden.
I think its a great pick

Love the Henderson pick, he’s an awesome weapon with great speed, a true team player. I didn’t like Burden, I saw him quit on his team several times.

 

[scott99]

My only regrets draft wise, my could’ve/would’ve, I wish they double dipped at WR and also drafted a young pass catching TE. I hated the Woodson pick, we have tons of safeties, would’ve LOVED if they took a home run swing at WR Dont’e Thornton, 6’4” 230 and ran a 4.30 (definitely raw, but the kind of talent you take a chance on). Obviously the type of receiver we don’t have. Raiders took him 2 picks after Woodson. WR Arian Smith was available, TE Gunnar Helm was available. WR Jaylin Lane was available, WR Jalen Royals as well.

If they want to go defense, Edge Jack Sawyer was available, the Steelers took him, and you know they know Edge rushers. All 3 safeties taken after Woodson were rated higher than him.

Just HATED the pick, just way too many BETTER players available at pick #106. Once again, 4th round, can’t get too upset, but it did bother me a lot.

To me, this was a Belichickian pick. I hated the long snapper pick too, but now it makes a lot of sense.

 

[Wozzy]

OK, the glow of the draft is fast fading into the reality that all the pats on the back are meaningless, because we won't know the true value of this draft for another 3 years. So now for the next 3 months we have nothing really new to discuss other than an occasional FA signing, and news and gossip from around the league. So I thought we could fill some time with some discussion of some draft picks that MIGHT have been. There was one in particular that immediate comes to mind, and I'll start with that one and you can add others.

Henderson vs Burdon - It's the most obvious, but since it's my thread, I get to pick first.

In the post draft analysis, I've been hearing what a LOT of analysts saying that Burden in the late 30's was one of the steals of the draft. Interesting in that he was right AFTER the Pats picked a RB in Henderson. I know Burden had supporters on this board, so how do you feel about the Pats passing him and taking Henderson.

Here's my take - Burden was projected by most to be a mid-first round pick. Some felt he was the best WR in the draft. He fell for questions about his work ethic, love of football, and other potential character issues. Now we all know that these kind of "questions" are sometimes just BS, sometimes not. But it did cause him to drop almost a full round and we could have had him in round 2 and no one questions his talent.

My take - So why do I think that the Pats chose Henderson over him. I'll give you 2 reasons. First impact. Henderson is probably going to get 10-15 rushing attempts, and around 5+ targets/game. Supposedly he has explosive play potential every time he touches the ball HE is likely going to have a bigger immediate impact for the Pats, than Burden, who's likely 5-10 targets per game will have for the Bears in his rookie year.

Now if Burden pans out and he becomes elite, that take might flip as he gets more touches as a number 1 receiver. Not to say Henderson's role won't increase if HE pans out and becomes a true dual threat.

the 2nd reason, in an interview on MacAfee, I found out that Jason Licht the Buc's GM had a GREAT draft stat. Every one of his draft picks since 2019 was on an NFL roster in the 2024 season. they might not all have worked out for the Bucs, but he proved he can draft NFL talent.

So when the asked why, he deferred and said his best asset is the ability to hire good people, but then remarked that after having some issues in the past, he decided to make non-football things like character and love of football more important than just pure talent, and it has worked out for them. Kind of like the same philosophy Wolfe and Vrabel used in this draft.
At any rate this a comparison that we will be able to talk about for the next 4 years at least as to who made the right pick. Now a Bears/Pats rivalry looms in the future due to the Maye/Williams, Henderson/Burden comparisons everyone will make. Your thoughts?

I took the most obvious one, but there must be others.

The Ohio RB’s coach said Henderson was the best blocking RB he ever coached. Why did McDaniels sign off on this… blocking matters a lot. If you can’t block, you can’t play meaningful snaps.

Blocking is why they took Sony over Chubb, it was the correct decision for a Super Bowl contending team… even if some fans didn’t understand why.

 

[mayoclinic]

There were lots of talented players in this draft, and a lot of guys could have gone anywhere from 20-40.

But Vrabel and company clearly put an emphasis on character and toughness, and I can't see Burden meeting the bar for either. He also has very limited route running, and mostly was used on screens and short dumpoffs. Not a great fit.

Burden may end up being successful in Chicago, but I don't see much reason to second-guess this particular one.

The Pats got 7 of Daniel Jeremiah's top 90:

11 Campbell (4)
32 Henderson (38)
55 Wilson (95)
57 Williams (69)
77 Farmer (137)
87 Swinson (146)
90 Woodson (106)

There were plenty of good alternatives at every juncture, but I haven't been able to come up with a better outcome.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

My only regrets draft wise, my could’ve/would’ve, I wish they double dipped at WR and also drafted a young pass catching TE. I hated the Woodson pick, we have tons of safeties, would’ve LOVED if they took a home run swing at WR Dont’e Thornton, 6’4” 230 and ran a 4.30 (definitely raw, but the kind of talent you take a chance on). Obviously the type of receiver we don’t have. Raiders took him 2 picks after Woodson. WR Arian Smith was available, TE Gunnar Helm was available. WR Jaylin Lane was available, WR Jalen Royals as well.

If they want to go defense, Edge Jack Sawyer was available, the Steelers took him, and you know they know Edge rushers. All 3 safeties taken after Woodson were rated higher than him.

Just HATED the pick, just way too many BETTER players available at pick #106. Once again, 4th round, can’t get too upset, but it did bother me a lot.

To me, this was a Belichickian pick. I hated the long snapper pick too, but now it makes a lot of sense.

Well the Pats disagree with you that there were 3 more highly rated safeties, and he was #90 on Jeremiah's big board who I trust more than any of the others. It was also a bigger area of need than WR as we didn't have a FS except for Epps coming off injury. He has good size, smart player, runs a 4.4. That was a good pick and MV probably felt FS was critical for this defense.

 

[TommyD4207]

OK, the glow of the draft is fast fading into the reality that all the pats on the back are meaningless, because we won't know the true value of this draft for another 3 years. So now for the next 3 months we have nothing really new to discuss other than an occasional FA signing, and news and gossip from around the league. So I thought we could fill some time with some discussion of some draft picks that MIGHT have been. There was one in particular that immediate comes to mind, and I'll start with that one and you can add others.

Henderson vs Burdon - It's the most obvious, but since it's my thread, I get to pick first.

In the post draft analysis, I've been hearing what a LOT of analysts saying that Burden in the late 30's was one of the steals of the draft. Interesting in that he was right AFTER the Pats picked a RB in Henderson. I know Burden had supporters on this board, so how do you feel about the Pats passing him and taking Henderson.

Here's my take - Burden was projected by most to be a mid-first round pick. Some felt he was the best WR in the draft. He fell for questions about his work ethic, love of football, and other potential character issues. Now we all know that these kind of "questions" are sometimes just BS, sometimes not. But it did cause him to drop almost a full round and we could have had him in round 2 and no one questions his talent.

My take - So why do I think that the Pats chose Henderson over him. I'll give you 2 reasons. First impact. Henderson is probably going to get 10-15 rushing attempts, and around 5+ targets/game. Supposedly he has explosive play potential every time he touches the ball HE is likely going to have a bigger immediate impact for the Pats, than Burden, who's likely 5-10 targets per game will have for the Bears in his rookie year.

Now if Burden pans out and he becomes elite, that take might flip as he gets more touches as a number 1 receiver. Not to say Henderson's role won't increase if HE pans out and becomes a true dual threat.

the 2nd reason, in an interview on MacAfee, I found out that Jason Licht the Buc's GM had a GREAT draft stat. Every one of his draft picks since 2019 was on an NFL roster in the 2024 season. they might not all have worked out for the Bucs, but he proved he can draft NFL talent.

So when the asked why, he deferred and said his best asset is the ability to hire good people, but then remarked that after having some issues in the past, he decided to make non-football things like character and love of football more important than just pure talent, and it has worked out for them. Kind of like the same philosophy Wolfe and Vrabel used in this draft.
At any rate this a comparison that we will be able to talk about for the next 4 years at least as to who made the right pick. Now a Bears/Pats rivalry looms in the future due to the Maye/Williams, Henderson/Burden comparisons everyone will make. Your thoughts?

I took the most obvious one, but there must be others.

If Burden had performed in 2024, like he did in 2023, he would have gone in the top 10.
He didn't, and therefore, he didn't.

When a player takes that big of a step back, it's pretty damned concerning.

 

[dliverey44]

My only regrets draft wise, my could’ve/would’ve, I wish they double dipped at WR and also drafted a young pass catching TE. I hated the Woodson pick, we have tons of safeties, would’ve LOVED if they took a home run swing at WR Dont’e Thornton, 6’4” 230 and ran a 4.30 (definitely raw, but the kind of talent you take a chance on). Obviously the type of receiver we don’t have. Raiders took him 2 picks after Woodson. WR Arian Smith was available, TE Gunnar Helm was available. WR Jaylin Lane was available, WR Jalen Royals as well.

If they want to go defense, Edge Jack Sawyer was available, the Steelers took him, and you know they know Edge rushers. All 3 safeties taken after Woodson were rated higher than him.

Just HATED the pick, just way too many BETTER players available at pick #106. Once again, 4th round, can’t get too upset, but it did bother me a lot.

To me, this was a Belichickian pick. I hated the long snapper pick too, but now it makes a lot of sense.

Depends on who you ask. I see consensus rankings and some of the people in those rankings are idiots, so when I see people refer to consensus rankings are reaching imo. Many the people that I respect the opinion of have him rated 3rd round early 4th. I loved the pick, it just depends on what you're looking for, I like the fast FS that can also play a NB.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I suspect they may have preferred Williams to Burden

Also Henderson is a true multi purpose back, pass block, explosive runner, catch

They are trying to get Maye help. Henderson can help in more ways on more plays than Burden.
I think its a great pick

Brett Kollmann compared his pass blocking to what you'd get from an OL.

 

[SlowGettingUp]

Well the Pats disagree with you that there were 3 more highly rated safeties, and he was #90 on Jeremiah's big board who I trust more than any of the others. It was also a bigger area of need than WR as we didn't have a FS except for Epps coming off injury. He has good size, smart player, runs a 4.4. That was a good pick and MV probably felt FS was critical for this defense.

And of course in a few years we'll be able to point to the fantastic players we should have drafted, because that's what fans do. You can pretty much always find players taken later that turned out better. But that's because you are cherry-picking from hundreds of players.

 

[Gumby]

If Burden had performed in 2024, like he did in 2023, he would have gone in the top 10.
He didn't, and therefore, he didn't.

When a player takes that big of a step back, it's pretty damned concerning.

Be interesting maybe to compare his NIL payments across 2022, 23, 24 and see if there is a correlation to his drop off in his reported interest-level and production.

If so, that would bode poorly for him doing much once he got a 4-year guaranteed contract.

 

[Triumph]

I would rather have Campbell and Henderson.

I believe that they will be productive starters.

What more can you ask for?

 

[manxman2601]

Brett Kollmann compared his pass blocking to what you'd get from an OL.

I think anyone who thinks we could just have had someone like Henderson later should just go and watch tape of Henderson lead and pass blocking.

 

[mayoclinic]

Another take on the "would've/could've" dynamic:

Bears’ desperate pursuit for TreVeyon Henderson falls short as Seattle and New England snatch the crown jewel running back

A bold ambition to redefine the backfield can sometimes come with costly lessons and unforeseen setbacks. The dramatic pursuit for

motociclismo.pt

Take it FWIW, but according to this the Bears badly wanted Henderson, which makes sense - Ben Johnson would have loved a Jamyhr Gibbs type. They allegedly tried to trade up to 35, but Seattle moved up to that spot for Nick Emmanwori. This also alleges that the Pats had offers to move out of 38, but didn't want to risk missing out on Henderson.

Denver also reportedly considered Henderson with their first round pick:

Broncos Eyed RB TreVeyon Henderson In Round 1

The Broncos eyed TreVeyon Henderson in the event they swung a first-round trade-down move

www.profootballrumors.com