Greg Bedard seems to think the Pats may be making a blockbuster trade soon

[TommyD4207]

Testy little ****er isn’t he.

Yeah, he said something for clicks, and then knew he couldn't back it up, so we're getting this.

I guess it's better than Tom E. just making **** up, now that his one source in the building got fired.

 

[TommyD4207]

A Trade is the work for Choir Boy George Pickens... stranger things have happened.

(This is you)

 

[Hugepatsfan]

Just because it's a supposed 2 player draft outside of Ward, doesn't mean it's worth trading up. It isn't, neither Carter or Hunter are worth extra assets. They just aren't.

If their evaluation is that those 2 are clear head and shoulders above the rest of the class, then it’s absolutely worth extra assets. Exactly how much depends on the specifics of their draft board.

 

[gobesmug]

First off, there is basically zero chance Kraft would pay $90M to a known sex pest, especially given the massive spending spree they went on this offseason.

Moreover, even if they wanted to, there is literally no chance that the Patriots could do this without sending whoever they draft in the first round back to CLE. There's a rookie allotment within the salary cap. That amount is determined by the picks a team uses in the draft, not the players a team ends up with. They'd have to fit an extra $8.4M into their allotment, so to sign Hunter they'd have to then ditch the entire rest of their rookie class.

Reading comprehension isn't your strong suit I take it.

Then again maybe it was deliberately malicious on your end to cut out my entire post which at the end I clearly stated it wasn't going to happen.

 

[hornetfb85]

If by soon he means never and if by blockbuster he means 2 7ths to move up 10 spots
He may be right

This made me laugh

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Reading comprehension isn't your strong suit I take it.

Then again maybe it was deliberately malicious on your end to cut out my entire post which at the end I clearly stated it wasn't going to happen.

And it seems you missed my point, which is that it's not merely something that won't happen, because Watson is a sex pest, but something that essentially can't happen, because the CBA makes it impossible.

 

[Rob0729]

What's Twitter? Do you mean BlueSky?

It will always be Twitter to me. Not a political thing.

 

[silentone]

Happy to use any better chart you can link me to

Hi Sam - (I had some trouble posting the links - if this doesn't work, I'll try again)

Rich Hill model (Patspulpit)2018 NFL Draft Value Chart
https://www.patspulpit.com/2018/4/21/17256758/2018-nfl-draft-value-chart-rich-
www.patspulpit.com/2018/4/21/17256758/2018-nfl-draft-value-chart-rich-hill
Doesn’t overvalue top picks as heavily as JJ


Fitzgerald-Spielberger Chart (Over the Cap):
NFL Draft Trade Value Chart | Over the Cap
overthecap.com/draft-trade-value-chart
They also have a book called The Drafting Stage

Chase Stuart Draft Value Chart (Football Perspective):

Draft Value Chart

Here are the values for the draft value chart in Post II on this subject, published on November 19th, 2012, along with the Jimmy Johnson/NFL values: Here are the values for the draft value chart in Post I on this subject, published on November 13th, 2012: Pk,FP Val,JJ Val 1,34.6,3000 2,30.2,2600...

www.footballperspective.com

NFL Draft Value Chart (Open Source Football)

Open Source Football: NFL Draft Value Chart

Constructing surplus value from scratch.

opensourcefootball.com

I really think this is helpful with other charts. It gets a little geeky but looks at surplus value of each pick. It comes to a counter intuitive conclusion(s) that the most valuable pick in the draft, in terms of surplus value is the 12th pick. So it concludes the 12th pick has more surplus value than the 4th meaning the cost savings at 12 outweigh the 4th pick being that much better (obviously each draft is different). The other thing they do of interest is remove QB’s from their analysis as the Qb’s skew the top few picks in most years.

The Loser’s Curse: (Decision Making and Market Efficiency in the NFL Draft) written by behavioral economists Cade Massey (Wharton) & Richard Thaler (U Chicago) in 2013.
https://faculty.wharton.upenn.edu/w...sers-curse---management-science-july-2013.pdf

faculty.wharton.upenn.edu/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/massey---thaler---losers-curse--management-science-july-2013.pdf
It's a little outdated but they were some of the early pioneers to point out….
Top picks are overvalued (same as Open Source’s more recent conclusion.
Front offices are overconfident in forecasting
Many NFL trades demonstrate inefficient pricing.

A couple quick thoughts relating to previous comments by other forum members.
I hope the Pats don’t trade up, seems like a losing strategy based on the above last two links. In a perfect world, the Pats would trade down to 10-13 the sweet spot of surplus value, however they need to find a LT. I would love to see a trade to six as long the Raiders agree to not take a LT and the Pats don’t feel there is a big difference between Campbell & Membou. If both are then available at six I would try make the same trade with Panthers at 8. Also, I think the Pats will have to overpay, probably by a lot, to trade up from second round into the 20’s.

 

[BelizePats]

These days, Bedard = Tomesse

 

[Steve102]

Jakobi would be good with Diggs drawing coverage, imo

Agree, 100%. But he's not under the moniker "blockbuster".

 

[dliverey44]

Agree, 100%. But he's not under the moniker "blockbuster".

OK super fair point

 

[VJCPatriot]

I don't think the trade will be a move up to 2. It would be for an established player. A disgruntled proven player. Who do we know fits that category?

Could I interest you in the Cowboy's Micah Parsons?

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I don't think the trade will be a move up to 2. It would be for an established player. A disgruntled proven player. Who do we know fits that category?

Could I interest you in the Cowboy's Micah Parsons?

Cashwise, they can afford it.

But can they do it without screwing the pooch on OT again?

 

[signbabybrady]

Cashwise, they can afford it.

But can they do it without screwing the pooch on OT again?

I'm ok with patching together LT for another year if it means we get Micah but maybe there's a way to get both.

 

[SlowGettingUp]

X has 336M users

I still call it Twitter, as does pretty much everyone I interact with there (and I have over 8k followers in a non-sports oriented field).

 

[Hyped]

Wake me up if and when it happens…..

It is Bedard man….

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

I still call it Twitter, as does pretty much everyone I interact with there (and I have over 8k followers in a non-sports oriented field).

I don't have any social media accounts.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I still call it Twitter, as does pretty much everyone I interact with there (and I have over 8k followers in a non-sports oriented field).

That or Xitter, pronounced exactly as it deserves.

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

If I had to guess, I would say that it is a trade down from 4 if Hunter is gone but Carter is available. If Carter is also gone, then I seriously doubt anyone would want to trade with us so the only scenario that makes sense if some team is super hot to get Carter. The Cowboys always like a big splash; who knows?

The Patriots should NOT trade up to 2. They need lots of players, not just a single super star.

 

[UGAPatsfan]

I’d trade down to 9 with NO for their 1 and 2 with zero hesitation