Polk & Baker revival.

[40yrpatsfan]

Polk's season got derailed in weeks 5-7. In his first 4 games he was showing upward trajectory, with more targets and receptions week after week, and that was with Brissette. In game 5 vs Miami (a 15-10 loss), the heel of his back foot touched the endline taking away a game winning TD on replay. Game 6 was the blowout loss to Houston, Drake's first game. Then in game 7 he suffered a concussion in London vs the Jags, missing the rest of that game + the following week. Drake seemed to move on from him at that point. In the final 8 games after his return, he only averaged 1 target per game and had only 2 receptions total in those 8 games.

That concussion was the final straw for him last season, his personality seemed to change after that. I think there's a decent chance he can start fresh and salvage his career this year.

 

[WhatJustHappened]

This would be nice, kinda like waking up from a nightmare falling off a roof right B4 you hit the ground.

 

[Rob0729]

I did a small analysis to see if a "second year jump" was a real thing. It does not bode well for Polk. Baker has more of a shot. However, the difference in coaching staff is night and day so Polk could be a rare outlier.

I only used PFF ratings because it was easy and did seem to have a correlation. I used 2022 and 2023 draft so I could track 3 years of changes in 2022 and 2 years in 2023. I did the top 33 picks each year.

33% of players jumped PFF score more than 10% from rookie to second year.
24% of players got 10% or more WORSE from rookie to second year.

The only players from 2022 draft that went up greater than 10% in year 2 and then got worse the 3rd year by 10% or more were injured players.

I have quite a bit of data on the 2 drafts but basically you are almost as likely to get worse from year 1 to year 2 as you are to get better though on average SLIGHTLY more players got better than worse.

Only 1 player in the 2 years (Devin Lloyd) went from below 50 PFF to above 70.

A quick summary on Polk and Baker:
Polk was so bad it is unlikely he gets good.
Baker had too few snaps to make a definitive judgement.

A second-year leap does happen for about 1/3 of players drafted in the top 33.

Tyler Guyton, based on this Matrix is the most likely first round bust.

Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabers, and Brock Bowers are the 3 that are most likely to continue to be very good based on rookie year, barring injury.

I still think if either or both of these guys have a second year jump, it will be because of things out of their control (crap coach and poor schemes) that made them underperform or even collapse than them improving over the offseason. So I do not know if historical data on year two jumps really mean anything.

The data you are looking at include a lot of receivers who were in stable environments with good to great coaching and solid schemes that put the receivers in the best position to succeed. Most of those receivers then just had typical year two growth staying in the same system with the same coaches. Those receivers are not really relevant to Polk's and Baker's situations.

There is no debate that poor coaching and crap offense hindered Polk's and Baker's development. Hell, every wide receiver on the roster took a step back last year other than Boutte. The question is would the rookie still have been bad or invisible no matter what roster they were on or not. We won't know until next year.

 

[JayNM]

Thank you for the replies fellas:

Training camp. They need to earn a spot. I’d also bring in two UDFAs, plus one more FA and/or draft pick to compete.

That depends upon who they bring in and what progress they have made in the offseason. Right now there are 2-3 guys who are in front of them. Douglas, Boutte, and Bourne if they keep him. Baker, in particular, is really in peril, as he doesn’t play special teams. Polk can return kicks, so he’s got more of an edge to make the roster. I expect them to draft at least 2 more receivers, so there’s going to be a battle to see who can stick. If they move on from Bourne to keep younger guys then I expect that Polk will be the one to survive, but he’s going to have to have really strong camps.

Im more in Tom's side than Huckle's

In my opinion we've been in "rebuild" for 5 years. And our wr woes in regards to developing go way longer

That just means that my patience is over. There were (are maybe?) players there that instantly upgrade our team.

Good point on Kickoff returns tho, if he can become reliable, might be worth the spot

The WR room right now:

1. Kayshon Boutte
2. DeMario Douglas
3. Kendrick Bourne
4. Mack Hollins
5. Ja’Lynn Polk
6. Javon Baker

Safe to say the team has to be adding more WR competition over the course of this offseason and hopefully names that fit immediately at the top of the depth chart. Bourne is keeping the seat warm until that name emerges. If the season began today he’d be a starter by virtue of his resume and seniority with the team. He and Hollins are the only two WRs with previous experience with Josh McDaniels. Bourne was basically in 2021 what Boutte was in 2024, the best WR by default (Douglas’ counting stats were marginally better but he played two more games than Boutte). But Bourne is on notice because I think he’s the first to go unless there is an injury to someone else ahead of him.

One way or another there are likely to be four WR’s ahead of these two and they’ll have to earn their way onto the field. Polk needs to show himself as not just the WR they hoped for when they drafted him but more than that if he’s going to climb back into the rotation. Because he was taken in the early 2nd round he’s going to get more opportunities to prove himself, it would be wasteful not to give him an extended look. The same can’t be said for Baker, where WRs taken in the 4th round or later are always considered dart throws from the start and historically aren’t given as much leash as WRs taken earlier. Factoring in for some rookies or veteran additions, it’s hard to see Baker making the Week 1 roster. There would need to be multiple injuries ahead of him on the depth chart to buy him additional time.

Nice post too, and i agree with the depth chart, taking that slots are never #1 (i.e. i think Pop is now better than Boutte)

Ive expressed in another post, but continuing my first paragraph

I think Polk and Baker are just not NFL receivers. Bourne also is just too inconsistent overall, on and off the field, for me to get any sort of excitment. And Hollins is not a WR, to me, i think he might see something in the old Hernandez role, with way more blocking, plus ST

Were I the GM, i'd draft 1 WR highly and get a big name Wr. If not Big name Wr can be acquired, besides the draftee, id get at least 3 guys to foment actual competition in TC. In the end id get 3 guys total there, as there were option if we include some trade possibilities. Then my DC woould be

#1 big name
#2 high draftee
#3 Pop
#4 Boutte/best signee
#5 polk/baker/signee with clear short term value

TO ME thats a NFL wr corps

 

[Force Zero Boomer]

Yep.

I think he's legitimately talented and has great potential.

That's as far as I'll go.

1st ballot, but no further. Not one step.

 

[Force Zero Boomer]

BTW, ITT "can't learn the playbook" is code for "not the brightest bulb on the tree."

 

[aluminum seats]

My biggest concern going forward is if Maye is the real deal. He hasn't quite shown that yet.

For a different thread I guess, but I agree with you. Not that the potential doesn’t seem to be there, but seems to be this automatic assumption that he’s gonna be great. We’ll see.

On these two receivers, it would be great if one could improve. I think the odds of both of them getting markedly better is close to zero.

 

[TheRainMaker]

My biggest concern going forward is if Maye is the real deal. He hasn't quite shown that yet.

He's got to be the most overrated player in Pats history right now. All off-season was Mac Jones was the problem and if they were to get another QB, they'd be a playoff team. They had two different QB's this season and the team would've been stuck at 3 wins had Buffalo had something to play for. Now all of the sudden people are blaming the lack of talent while giving Maye a pass. He'd have his one to two throws or run per game, then call it a day until the 4th quarter when the game was out of reach.

This is a big year for him. We all know the lack of talent on offense the Pats have. With that said, he should still be able to muster more scoring drives as the #3 selection given the league has been built to be scored on.

 

[TommyD4207]

He's got to be the most overrated player in Pats history right now. All off-season was Mac Jones was the problem and if they were to get another QB, they'd be a playoff team. They had two different QB's this season and the team would've been stuck at 3 wins had Buffalo had something to play for. Now all of the sudden people are blaming the lack of talent while giving Maye a pass. He'd have his one to two throws or run per game, then call it a day until the 4th quarter when the game was out of reach.

This is a big year for him. We all know the lack of talent on offense the Pats have. With that said, he should still be able to muster more scoring drives as the #3 selection given the league has been built to be scored on.

I think the bigger issue is him staying on the field. The concussion **** is terrifying.

 

[RobertWeathers]

He's got to be the most overrated player in Pats history right now. All off-season was Mac Jones was the problem and if they were to get another QB, they'd be a playoff team. They had two different QB's this season and the team would've been stuck at 3 wins had Buffalo had something to play for. Now all of the sudden people are blaming the lack of talent while giving Maye a pass. He'd have his one to two throws or run per game, then call it a day until the 4th quarter when the game was out of reach.

This is a big year for him. We all know the lack of talent on offense the Pats have. With that said, he should still be able to muster more scoring drives as the #3 selection given the league has been built to be scored on.

They averaged 18.5ppg when he started and played the entire game. That is not good but considering he was a rookie and with that **** o-line, set of receivers, a ****ty play caller and ****ty HC, it's a miracle they were able to do that.

Yes- it is a big year for him but don't see how at this point he is overrated.

 

[The Gr8est]

Not sure the Givens situation and the one with these two are the same.

Givens was a 7th rounder and make the team b/c of STs. He had the same coach. Same offense. Same QB year one and two. He needed to learn a ton and bust his ass. He did just that.

Givens reportedly spent a lot of time with the Juggs machine in his first offseason.

 

[condon84]

My question to the forum:

How long are YOU willing to go (as in, giving them a Roster spot) for them?

No right answer here obviously, im just curious

At least 3 years or until their rookie contracts are done unless they're a malcontent or show no signs of improvement at all.

People gotta give these guys a chance to get coached and develop.

 

[grux]

I still think if either or both of these guys have a second year jump, it will be because of things out of their control (crap coach and poor schemes) that made them underperform or even collapse than them improving over the offseason. So I do not know if historical data on year two jumps really mean anything.

The data you are looking at include a lot of receivers who were in stable environments with good to great coaching and solid schemes that put the receivers in the best position to succeed. Most of those receivers then just had typical year two growth staying in the same system with the same coaches. Those receivers are not really relevant to Polk's and Baker's situations.

There is no debate that poor coaching and crap offense hindered Polk's and Baker's development. Hell, every wide receiver on the roster took a step back last year other than Boutte. The question is would the rookie still have been bad or invisible no matter what roster they were on or not. We won't know until next year.

I agree. If Polk/Baker don't show anything this year then they will most likely be busts. Josh and the new staff will put them in a position to succeed and hopefully they show some improvement. Baker especially needs to keep his mouth shut and let his play on the field do the talking.

 

[Dedhampatsfan]

Teams can make improvements quickly but this team is very far behind.

My biggest concern going forward is if Maye is the real deal. He hasn't quite shown that yet.

Agreed, and that's the reason I'd like them to keep Milton as qb2.

 

[pazrul72]

Baker has more natural talent but a ten cent head. I would still not pass on some WR Talent in this Draft hoping on the aforementioned.

But i thought with your George Pickens obsession thats all a WR needed?

 

[KCSVEN]

I still think if either or both of these guys have a second year jump, it will be because of things out of their control (crap coach and poor schemes) that made them underperform or even collapse than them improving over the offseason. So I do not know if historical data on year two jumps really mean anything.

The data you are looking at include a lot of receivers who were in stable environments with good to great coaching and solid schemes that put the receivers in the best position to succeed. Most of those receivers then just had typical year two growth staying in the same system with the same coaches. Those receivers are not really relevant to Polk's and Baker's situations.

There is no debate that poor coaching and crap offense hindered Polk's and Baker's development. Hell, every wide receiver on the roster took a step back last year other than Boutte. The question is would the rookie still have been bad or invisible no matter what roster they were on or not. We won't know until next year.

I agree, also an admittedly small sample size. I am decide whether I want to expand the sample size out longer.
BUT Polk was at a level of bad that is uncommon for a pick so high.
Also, the fact he was terrible at separation in college and even worse in the pros does not bode well for a receiver as that metric is pretty good indicator of success.
I thought he was drafted too high because of that inability to separate but i’d be ecstatic if he proves me wrong

Baker I have some hope for but not enough to go on to make any educated guess on how he’ll develop

 

[Force Zero Boomer]

They averaged 18.5ppg when he started and played the entire game. That is not good but considering he was a rookie and with that **** o-line, set of receivers, a ****ty play caller and ****ty HC, it's a miracle they were able to do that.

Yes- it is a big year for him but don't see how at this point he is overrated.

That's what gives me confidence in him: under ridiculous circumstances, the kid showed up and played well, as a rookie under perhaps the worst HC in NFL history. If he learns not to turn the ball over, he's gonna be special.

 

[RobertWeathers]

That's what gives me confidence in him: under ridiculous circumstances, the kid showed up and played well, as a rookie under perhaps the worst HC in NFL history. If he learns not to turn the ball over, he's gonna be special.

Yep. Too many "hero" throws. Needs better down the field accuracy.

Rookie QBs get a pass. Year 2 is when a better determination can be made if they have "it".

 

[dliverey44]

Call me wrong or stupid (and I dare say some will) But I think Polk and Baker are going to have a break out season in 2025. Better coaching, top QB, growing pains over. They were not dragged in off the street to play, both were very good collage players. But for what ever reason, they both really struggled to make the transition. But now things have changed and they have a chance to really show us how good they can be.

Let the abuse begin......

You are wrong stupid, I wanted to combine them. ****in with ya because I think you are right That both should improve. I am pretty optimistic that Booty, Polk and Baker with improve this year. There are plenty of good WRs that have taken years to reach their potential, generally 3 is the year that bears fruit. Fans have been spoiled in the last 5-7 years with several rookies coming in and performing at a high level and that is why we have a group of posters that are ready to move on.

Having said the above I absolutely think upgrades can be made but I do not think we should give up on them, Pop as well because I still don't think we know what he is.

 

[Boston Boxer]

Call me wrong or stupid (and I dare say some will) But I think Polk and Baker are going to have a break out season in 2025. Better coaching, top QB, growing pains over. They were not dragged in off the street to play, both were very good collage players. But for what ever reason, they both really struggled to make the transition. But now things have changed and they have a chance to really show us how good they can be.

Let the abuse begin......

I'm optimistic but, the McD offense has been notoriously hard to grasp by rookies and vets alike.