Brandon Aiyuk Roster Bonus Deadline - April 1st [Merged with Aiyuk watch is almost over]

[SlowGettingUp]

So we are rapidly coming up on the likely deadline for an Aiyuk trade - April 1st. The reason is that on that day his $22.8m guarantee kicks in.

Brandon Aiyuk | NFL Contracts & Salaries | Spotrac.com

Brandon Aiyuk signed a 4 year, $120,000,000 contract with the San Francisco 49ers, including $23,000,000 signing bonus, $76,000,000 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $30,000,000. In 2025, Aiyuk will earn a base salary of $1,170,000, a signing bonus of $22,855,000 and a workout...

www.spotrac.com

There are clear signs that the 49ers want to trade him. The Patriots were interested last year before he signed his massive extension and tore his ACL. So he's currently damaged goods, but he is still young (26) unlike all the FA WRs.

His contract is expensive, but if he regains his agility and speed after the injury it is pretty much in line (around $28m/yr) with other elite WRs. Last year he didn't want to come here, but we wouldn't actually have to renegotiate his contract unless we wanted to - we'd get 3 years with an option to cancel after 2 years.

This chart indicates just how good he was - he had absolutely elite separation against man coverage:



Likely we'd have to give up a 3rd (the one we got for Judon trade), and maybe SF would eat part of the contract in view of the injury. Folks in SF want him gone - they are moving on from their massive spending spree.

He likely wouldn't be ready to play until after the season starts, and obviously there is the risk that he doesn't fully recover from the injury.

My guess is that the Diggs visit and departure may relate to the possibility of this trade. If no trade eventuates, then we make an offer to Diggs.

 

[maust]

A 3rd and big bucks for damaged goods that didn't want to be here when he was healthy. If the Pats could be sure they were getting a 100% recovered Aiyuk maybe, NFW now.

 

[Grogan14]

Patriots have to get Maye some accomplished veteran playmaker help period. If they don’t, Wolf should be fired for malpractice

 

[signbabybrady]

You'd think they'd be more desperate to move him if that was actually their plan. At this point teams should just wait until April 2nd. Now I think Aiyuk is probably not going anywhere.

 

[jboston19]

That’s a hard pass from me. I’d much rather sign Diggs and see what comes out of the draft.

 

[SlowGettingUp]

You'd think they'd be more desperate to move him if that was actually their plan. At this point teams should just wait until April 2nd. Now I think Aiyuk is probably not going anywhere.

There's lots of rumors out there on different teams. But if they are planning on trading him, they have ever incentive to do it before the 1st.

 

[maust]

You'd think they'd be more desperate to move him if that was actually their plan. At this point teams should just wait until April 2nd. Now I think Aiyuk is probably not going anywhere.

Yeah, from the outside looking in it appears SF is looking for a big (possibly unrealistic) return for questionable merchandise that comes with a high carrying cost

 

[PatsFan2]

IF Aiyuk gets back to 100% we're getting a very good player: and an accomplished Route Runner like Diggs. IF they want a Third we should ask for a Fourth back. When Healthy Aiyuk is better than Tee Higgins and this is coming from a Higgins lover no homo.

 

[PatsFan2]

That’s a hard pass from me. I’d much rather sign Diggs and see what comes out of the draft.

We could have both McDaniels Offense might not be as Rookie Friendly: he might prefer experience guys which Aiyuk and Diggs are.

 

[Patsfan1645]

That’s a hard pass from me. I’d much rather sign Diggs and see what comes out of the draft.

So Digg being 32 this year and Aiyuk being 27 doesnt change anything for you? I have seen players take most if not all of the following season to get right after an ACL tear if they ever get back to 100% so Diggs may not be fully recovered until he is 33 which concerns me that he would be declining and what's left in the tank at that point.

 

[Patsfan1645]

We could have both McDaniels Offense might not be as Rookie Friendly: he might prefer experience guys which Aiyuk and Diggs are.

Well Aiyuk tore his right knee and Diggs tore his left so if we had both they could do this and be able to play for sure.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Patriots have to get Maye some accomplished veteran playmaker help period. If they don’t, Wolf should be fired for malpractice

You know Vrabel is in charge, you have even acknowledged that recently, yet you call for Wolf to be fired if they don’t get a WR. You clearly understand that is completely irrational, yet you do it anyways. Shouldn't Vrabel be fired if he doesn’t get a receiver?

 

[Huckleberry1]

So Digg being 32 this year and Aiyuk being 27 doesnt change anything for you? I have seen players take most if not all of the following season to get right after an ACL tear if they ever get back to 100% so Diggs may not be fully recovered until he is 33 which concerns me that he would be declining and what's left in the tank at that point.

If you are going to give a receiver almost 30 million a season you should give it to a healthy receiver. This is a young team in rebuild mode, having Aiyuk for this coming season really doesn’t mean much to them. They should hang on to the 28 million and spend it on healthy players that will help them when they are a playoff team.

 

[Patsfan1645]

If you are going to give a receiver almost 30 million a season you should give it to a healthy receiver. This is a young team in rebuild mode, having Aiyuk for this coming season really doesn’t mean much to them. They should hang on to the 28 million and spend it on healthy players that will help them when they are a playoff team.

So its a pass on both for you I take it? Because Diggs isnt healthy right now and its up in the air what a team will get from him this season.

 

[JayNM]

ACL injuries aren't the end of it all like it used to be

Now, for certain, due to his type of player, it might take awhile for him to physically be back to 100% and then to mentally feel comfortable with cutting

 

[Ring 6]

If you are going to give a receiver almost 30 million a season you should give it to a healthy receiver. This is a young team in rebuild mode, having Aiyuk for this coming season really doesn’t mean much to them. They should hang on to the 28 million and spend it on healthy players that will help them when they are a playoff team.

They should be a playoff team this year.

 

[Huckleberry1]

So its a pass on both for you I take it? Because Diggs isnt healthy right now and its up in the air what a team will get from him this season.

The way I look at everything for the Patriots is that I want them to build a team that will contend throughout Maye’s career. Even though I think they might have a shot at a Wild Card spot this coming season (25’), I’m really looking at 26’ as the year they become a real playoff team, and from 27’ on I want them to be a contender. The contracts they signed in free agency should reflect who they want to be starters on those playoff teams. So Milt Williams and Carlton Davis ( and others) are guys they consider starters for those teams. The guys they are signing now are what I call band aids. Guys who can possibly shore up a weakness, but who they need to replace over the next two years with playoff team caliber starters. Garrett Bradbury is a good example of this. They signed him to a 2 year deal, They are hoping he will help shore up the line short term, but they know they will have to find their long term answer at Center either in the draft or the next free agency or two. So when I look at the players left in free agency that’s the lens I look at them through. With Diggs I see them adding a veteran in a 1-2 year deal at very reasonable $$$$, so I’m fine with that. With Aiyuk they will have to give up both a draft pick and 28 million a season, and given his boom or bust history, and that injury I think that’s a bad move for a team that is really 2 seasons from seriously competing in the playoffs. I understand why people are screaming for a receiver, but I would go with Diggs and the draft, where there will be good prospects right into the 4th round over spending that much on an unreliable WR who didn’t want to play here to begin with. I’m sure many will disagree with me, but that’s the best explanation for how I see the rest of this offseason and acquisitions.

 

[jboston19]

So Digg being 32 this year and Aiyuk being 27 doesnt change anything for you? I have seen players take most if not all of the following season to get right after an ACL tear if they ever get back to 100% so Diggs may not be fully recovered until he is 33 which concerns me that he would be declining and what's left in the tank at that point.

It’s more in terms of giving up more draft capital and that the 49ers are alarrady trying to get out from his contract.

Also, it appears that Diggs would be a positive presence from what Curran/Perry and others have been saying.

Diggs is definitely a short term gamble for a fix, but, with the above in mind and the fact he’ll be on a lesser contract, seems like a better choice to me.

 

[PatsFan2]

They should be a playoff team this year.

They have a Playoffs Defense if all is healthy: now let's assembly a Playoffs Offense.

 

[Patsfan1645]

The way I look at everything for the Patriots is that I want them to build a team that will contend throughout Maye’s career. Even though I think they might have a shot at a Wild Card spot this coming season (25’), I’m really looking at 26’ as the year they become a real playoff team, and from 27’ on I want them to be a contender. The contracts they signed in free agency should reflect who they want to be starters on those playoff teams. So Milt Williams and Carlton Davis ( and others) are guys they consider starters for those teams. The guys they are signing now are what I call band aids. Guys who can possibly shore up a weakness, but who they need to replace over the next two years with playoff team caliber starters. Garrett Bradbury is a good example of this. They signed him to a 2 year deal, They are hoping he will help shore up the line short term, but they know they will have to find their long term answer at Center either in the draft or the next free agency or two. So when I look at the players left in free agency that’s the lens I look at them through. With Diggs I see them adding a veteran in a 1-2 year deal at very reasonable $$$$, so I’m fine with that. With Aiyuk they will have to give up both a draft pick and 28 million a season, and given his boom or bust history, and that injury I think that’s a bad move for a team that is really 2 seasons from seriously competing in the playoffs. I understand why people are screaming for a receiver, but I would go with Diggs and the draft, where there will be good prospects right into the 4th round over spending that much on an unreliable WR who didn’t want to play here to begin with. I’m sure many will disagree with me, but that’s the best explanation for how I see the rest of this offseason and acquisitions.

Thanks for the very detailed post and you make some good points.