#4 pick over last 10 years

[Grogan14]

only one OL in 2020 (Andrew Thomas)
only one flat out bust (Clelin Farrell)
Mostly good or very good but not great players

2015 Amari Cooper
2016 Ezekiel Elliott
2017 Leonard Fournette
2018 Denzell Ward
2019 Clelin Farrell
2020 Andrew Thomas
2021 Kyle Pitts
2022 Sauce Gardner
2023 Anthony Richardson
2024 Marvin Harrison Jr

 

[WhatJustHappened]

So... what are you saying?

 

[Pape]

So... what are you saying?

That people over value the position. They treat it as the 2 spot when its closer to the 10

 

[PatsFan2]

only one OL in 2020 (Andrew Thomas)
only one flat out bust (Clelin Farrell)
Mostly good or very good but not great players

2015 Amari Cooper
2016 Ezekiel Elliott
2017 Leonard Fournette
2018 Denzell Ward
2019 Clelin Farrell
2020 Andrew Thomas
2021 Kyle Pitts
2022 Sauce Gardner
2023 Anthony Richardson
2024 Marvin Harrison Jr

Nothing wrong with getting a very good player... Mason Graham would be a nice player to add to the success of that group.

 

[JayNM]

That people over value the position. They treat it as the 2 spot when its closer to the 10

Id be on the other side Pape, tbh

10 years and only 1 flop seems to indicate that we can get an elite player at 4. Even if we take Pitts as bad, that 80% on great olayer

Eliiot, Fournette are HOF borderliners for me too, so even the high-end upside is there (ok, they were RB, but still)

 

[slash83]

Trade it for Parsons.

 

[Huckleberry1]

That people over value the position. They treat it as the 2 spot when its closer to the 10

Double post

 

[Huckleberry1]

That people over value the position. They treat it as the 2 spot when its closer to the 10

Disagree. It depends upon the class and who is doing the picking. Just because some GM’s were making bad decisions it doesn’t mean that really good to great players weren’t available, in fact they almost always are:

Just limiting it to the top 10 these players were there for the taking. And the lists are even better if you go to the top 20:

2024

J. Alt

M. Nabers

M. Penix


2023

D. Witherspoon

B. Robinson

J. Carter

2022

D. London

G. Wilson

2021

J.Chase

P.Sewell

J. Waddle

P. Surtain II

2020

Tua

.J.Hebert

2019

J. Allen

 

[lancerman]

only one OL in 2020 (Andrew Thomas)
only one flat out bust (Clelin Farrell)
Mostly good or very good but not great players

2015 Amari Cooper
2016 Ezekiel Elliott
2017 Leonard Fournette
2018 Denzell Ward
2019 Clelin Farrell
2020 Andrew Thomas
2021 Kyle Pitts
2022 Sauce Gardner
2023 Anthony Richardson
2024 Marvin Harrison Jr

I wouldn't say good not great. Cooper was great and a 5x Pro Bowler. Elliot was a premier RB for awhile. Fournette was a stud in Jacksonville when they played us in the AFCCG and was huge for Tampa during that playoff run, he had injury issues. Ward has been a 4 time pro bowler and has really started to click. Thomas is solid and has been an All Pro, his team just sucks and he doesn't get talked about much, he literally just led the league in passes defended this season. Pitts is a Pro Bowl TE who aside from his injury year give good enough production for a guy who splits time blocking, he's probably on the second half of the top 10 TE's in the league. Sauce Gardner has been in the league for 3 years and has been a 2 time First Team All Pro. And it's way too early to judge MHJ after one year on a mediocre team. He shows huge potential and has put up numbers, wouldn't shock me if next year he becomes a perennial 1k receiver he's just not comparable to the elites yet, hell we have a thread about Pickens on this board and he had roughly the same production in year one as Pickens did this year.

The only flat out busts were Farrell, and that was an EXTREMELY controversial pick at the time, and Richardson and people tend to reach on QB's.

The one thing people need to get out of their head is the idea that having a top 5 pick guarantees a perennial All Pro/future HOF'er type. No. If you go BPA, you likely will get a very strong contributor who has the potential to be that if you develop him right and he doesn't have injury issues.

 

[Huckleberry1]

only one OL in 2020 (Andrew Thomas)
only one flat out bust (Clelin Farrell)
Mostly good or very good but not great players

2015 Amari Cooper
2016 Ezekiel Elliott
2017 Leonard Fournette
2018 Denzell Ward
2019 Clelin Farrell
2020 Andrew Thomas
2021 Kyle Pitts
2022 Sauce Gardner
2023 Anthony Richardson
2024 Marvin Harrison Jr

By limiting it to just the player taken you invalidated the list. You should have listed who was available at and after the 4th pick, as that would have demonstrated the talent available.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Trade it for Parsons.

If they were going to trade the #4 then Parsons fits the bill for what they should want, as he’s not only a top 3 defender in the league, but he’s only 25. That said it’s doubtful he would want to come to a rebuild. But maybe Vrabel could talk him into it?

 

[slash83]

If they were going to trade the #4 then Parsons fits the bill for what they should want, as he’s not only a top 3 defender in the league, but he’s only 25. That said it’s doubtful he would want to come to a rebuild. But maybe Vrabel could talk him into it?

I think any player can be sold to come join an upcoming team with a locked in franchise QB. Like you said, Parsons is only 25, not someone who is at the end of his career and is desperate for a ring asap.

 

[Steve102]

That people over value the position. They treat it as the 2 spot when its closer to the 10

4 is closer to 10 than 1.

 

[Pape]

4 is closer to 10 than 1.

Pick 1 value 3000
Pick 4 value 1800
Pick 10 value 1300

1200 vs 500

Pick 4 is closer to 10 than it is to 1.

People here are significantly overvaluing the 4th pick in the draft

 

[Steve102]

Pick 1 value 3000
Pick 4 value 1800
Pick 10 value 1300

1200 vs 500

Pick 4 is closer to 10 than it is to 1.

People here are significantly overvaluing the 4th pick in the draft

I stand with Marcus Brody still.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Pick 1 value 3000
Pick 4 value 1800
Pick 10 value 1300

1200 vs 500

Pick 4 is closer to 10 than it is to 1.

People here are significantly overvaluing the 4th pick in the draft

Once again Pape, go look at all of the really good to great players drafted at 4 or later, they are much closer to 1 caliber than 10. Just looking at who various GM’s took at 4 is cherry-picking. If anything reviewing drafts after the fact argues strongly for drafting BPA over need, although it’s generally a combination of both that smart GM’s apply.

 

[lancerman]

Pick 1 value 3000
Pick 4 value 1800
Pick 10 value 1300

1200 vs 500

Pick 4 is closer to 10 than it is to 1.

People here are significantly overvaluing the 4th pick in the draft

The 1 pick means if you go BPA you pretty much get a guaranteed starter. If you go QB, you at least get your pick of QB.

Anything after that from 1-15 you have somewhere between 80% and 50% of getting a starter. Then it becomes a coin flip for the rest of the first. Then it becomes more likely the guy doesn't work out. And after the third round you are basically just playing darts trying to land bullseye.

 

[Wax Frog]

Pick 1 value 3000
Pick 4 value 1800
Pick 10 value 1300

1200 vs 500

Pick 4 is closer to 10 than it is to 1.

People here are significantly overvaluing the 4th pick in the draft

 

[lancerman]

Once again Pape, go look at all of the really good to great players drafted at 4 or later, they are much closer to 1 caliber than 10. Just looking at who various GM’s took at 4 is cherry-picking. If anything reviewing drafts after the fact argues strongly for drafting BPA over need, although it’s generally a combination of both that smart GM’s apply.

It's not that there isn't a drop in value after 1. There is. But top 10 is still great value comparatively. After top 15 is when you start looking more at guys who are as likely or more likely to not pan out.

At the end of the day it's still the 4th pick in the draft. It's just not the first pick which is usually a generational type prospect at that position that is mostly fail proof and would be a major dud if it didn't work out.

 

[Hyped]

We gotta hit on #4....no ifs or buts about it....