How Mike Vrabel wants to use analytics as Patriots head coach

[reflexblue]

I saw this early today too..thought this was interesting...

“How do we manage our players? What’s the workload? What’s their speeds? How often to they get to 90 percent of their max speed?” Vrabel asked. “You see all these numbers that come out of the game. Let’s say a player’s max speed is 20 miles per hour. Well, then we feel like at least one time between games you should go 90 percent for a certain distance, so you should run at 18 miles per hour for X amount of distance if you’re a gunner, a receiver, or a player that does that.

“We can see what they do in the game, and we want to make sure they’re recreating that at least once during the week. So, then, how we track player load management, how we construct practice, all these things that we’re going to use the data.”

I thought this was the most intriguing section of the story

 

[Stu Pidassle]

I never heard anyone question Ernie's value and expertise. Belichickians know that it was a wonderful confluence of excellent coaches, support staff and player's that bought into the system and plans. Even the sturdiest houses fall when you remove enough supporting elements. Ernie was loved by all.

All the people in the building loved him for sure. You can tell how much Jules likes him on his podcast. It has been interesting to see his personality after so many years operating behind the scenes.

 

[Steve102]

They used analytics before. Their system was called Ernie Adams.

EDIT: @Stu Pidassle I have been pounding the Ernie Adams drum for a while. Thanks for joining the band!

 

[upstater1]

I am sure the Sean McVay's - Kyle Shanahan's and Mike LaFlauer's or the NFL world are using them.

Sean McVay sold out for a Super Bowl.

Bruce Arians could've coached that same team to a Super Bowl win, especially against the weakest Super Bowl opponent in modern times.

Otherwise, what have these 3 won collectively?

 

[upstater1]

They used analytics before. Their system was called Ernie Adams.

EDIT: @Stu Pidassle I have been pounding the Ernie Adams drum for a while. Thanks for joining the band!

Scouting is not analytics.

We're talking about 2 different things.

If people are wondering if I support scouting, I do.

 

[Stu Pidassle]

Analytics is what every human being does. The emphasis is on the word "human."

But if you listen to the #s, then you'll never have a moment like Belichick did at the end of the 2014 Super Bowl. Every single analytic in the world was telling him not to do that, but he did it only because he had personal awareness of the mindset of another human being (Pete Carroll) and he knew he had a counter for the play the Seahawks were likely to run. 90% chance that Belichick's gamble fails and then everyone would have been blasting him for wasting time for Brady to try to tie up the game, even with a Hail Mary. The metrics would say preserve time for your offense with a timeout, let the Seahawks score quickly. And MOST coaches under the regime of "metrics" would do exactly that BECAUSE they like their jobs and don't want to be called out for some unorthodox "artful" analysis (which is ACTUALLY the right decision). Most coaches would rather put the onus of failure on the players rather than take the risk themselves of failing with what would have been a universally critiquable decision.

I could go on about this in various ways to show you how Belichick's analytics were often useless precisely because he didn;t have enough awareness of how football players see plays unfolding. And Belichick has been up front about the fact that as a coach, he could not see the game the same way so he needed players to give him a lot of input.

The problem here is we have the greatest coach of all time admitting the ways in which his analysis and preparation failed him and we're supposed to believe that the number crunchers are going to have greater insight into the probabilities of the game than the greatest coach ever.

My whole life experience tells me that coaches will use the numbers as a crutch in order to save their jobs. BECAUSE when the guy paying them asks "Why did you do that?" they will use the numbers as a justification for their decision.

As you say analytics are a normal part of the decision making process. You are explaining why humans need to make the final decision so that point in time data and sense of the moment can be included in the decision.

 

[Stu Pidassle]

I should add one more thing. The key to my answer was the word NEVER. Should have capitalized that for emphasis.

All good, there was not much to misinterpret, LOL

 

[upstater1]

As you say analytics are a normal part of the decision making process. You are explaining why humans need to make the final decision so that point in time data and sense of the moment can be included in the decision.

I think I said the opposite. Most coaches will be in CYA territory so they will let the type of metrics we're talking about here influence them instead of making the proper decision.

 

[Stu Pidassle]

I think I said the opposite. Most coaches will be in CYA territory so they will let the type of metrics we're talking about here influence them instead of making the proper decision.

In that case most coaches let the analytics dictate their position, also known as the Mayo model. Good coaches are not afraid to include their own judgment in the final decision.

 

[Steve102]

Scouting is not analytics.

We're talking about 2 different things.

If people are wondering if I support scouting, I do.

Ya. Thanks. I know the difference. So did Ernie.

 

[Force Zero Boomer]

Lame. The variables in football are finite but many.

These metrics will only add one more layer of confusion to coaches who have one main job: making the complex simple.

Whatever these nerds are going to spin out inevitably neglects what the athletes themselves recognize on the field. Even the guy who knew more about it than anyone (Belichick) was often focused on nitty-gritty details which could never actually help the players on the field.

Analytics basically solved the game of NBA basketball. It changed how rosters are constructed and changed game strategy, to the point where the game is boring and losing viewership. Brad Stevens is an analytics fiend and pioneer, and he's constructed a dominant, championship team.

If you ignore analytics and advanced statistics, you will lose more games, you will select more poor players in the draft, and you will sign more FAs that won't work out. And you discard information about your opponent, who is undoubtedly using analytics to inform decisions. I chose my words carefully there: "inform decisions." Analytics inform, but don't make decisions. You use the insight they provide to make human decisions better.

Luddites can pound sand. I'm excited that Vrabel understands the power of analytics.

 

[signbabybrady]

 

[Force Zero Boomer]

Scouting is not analytics.

We're talking about 2 different things.

If people are wondering if I support scouting, I do.

Scouting and analytics are not disjoint areas in the modern NFL. One informs the other. Scouts may use analytics to verify and quantify impressions, for example. Or analytics may help scouts take a look a players they wouldn't have considered normally. You can define them to be disjoint, but in practice for most teams, they are not. They are complementary.

 

[Real fan 02]

C'mon stater you've been looking through those for too long. We have to get with the times.

Did BB find what he was looking for???.. N'Keal Harry, joeuan Williams, Duke dawsa, Cyrus Jones.. Tyqua..

 

[Real fan 02]

I loved him in the van Damme movie! Bloodsport!

 

[PatsFan2]

Did BB find what he was looking for???.. N'Keal Harry, joeuan Williams, Duke dawsa, Cyrus Jones.. Tyqua..

He's still looking.

 

[Grogan14]

The AI overlords are coming.
Soon coaching staff will be reduced to 3
Meet the new DC. Sounds just like Bill

 

[signbabybrady]

He's still looking.

He'll probably start a pipeline of NFL WRs from UNC lol

 

[PatsFan2]

He'll probably start a pipeline of NFL WRs from UNC lol

Not holding my breath Poor NC.

 

[Hyped]

Analytics is what every human being does. The emphasis is on the word "human."

But if you listen to the #s, then you'll never have a moment like Belichick did at the end of the 2014 Super Bowl. Every single analytic in the world was telling him not to do that, but he did it only because he had personal awareness of the mindset of another human being (Pete Carroll) and he knew he had a counter for the play the Seahawks were likely to run. 90% chance that Belichick's gamble fails and then everyone would have been blasting him for wasting time for Brady to try to tie up the game, even with a Hail Mary. The metrics would say preserve time for your offense with a timeout, let the Seahawks score quickly. And MOST coaches under the regime of "metrics" would do exactly that BECAUSE they like their jobs and don't want to be called out for some unorthodox "artful" analysis (which is ACTUALLY the right decision). Most coaches would rather put the onus of failure on the players rather than take the risk themselves of failing with what would have been a universally critiquable decision.

I could go on about this in various ways to show you how Belichick's analytics were often useless precisely because he didn't have enough awareness of how football players see plays unfolding. And Belichick has been up front about the fact that as a coach, he could not see the game the same way so he needed players to give him a lot of input.

The problem here is we have the greatest coach of all time admitting the ways in which his analysis and preparation failed him and we're supposed to believe that the number crunchers are going to have greater insight into the probabilities of the game than the greatest coach ever.

My whole life experience tells me that coaches will use the numbers as a crutch in order to save their jobs. BECAUSE when the guy paying them asks "Why did you do that?" they will use the numbers as a justification for their decision.

Yeah, but analytics can be one of the tools in the toolbox. Useful at the right times. For example, Belichick's famous 4th and 2 decision back in...2009-2010-ish when Peyton Manning was at the height of his powers....Belichick made that "analytical" decision before we all ever heard of the term....

So, IOW....analytics have their uses as one of the many tools in a team building toolbox...