"Well, Dan Campbell only won 3 games his first season..."

[Ring 6]

The worst part about this is it isn't even coaching that's hurt him. It's the unneeded shooting himself in the foot in terms of what he's said to the media, which has obviously become a running joke here. Any other coach, I think the outrage would be far worse and the only reason it's not is because he's at least a former player from here.

He's said so many horrific things and created so many unneeded issues that it shows he's immature and there's really no coming back from it, other than time - which would have to happen after he quietly works as an assistant/coordinator elsewhere. No one is going to want to come work here knowing what has transpired and if they're unaware, their agent is sure to advise them and will have likely done the research.

This is an all-or-nothing situation. You either completely clean house, or you run it back and hope better personnel fixes it. And I just don't feel like the latter can possibly be an option because of how badly he's handled himself.

But I think his public comments give an insight into the culture he is building.
And the comments coming from the players back it up.

It’s a real culture of a lack of accountability. There is a lack of vision. It’s a collection of meaningless cliches that aren’t backed by the mentality that created them.


A few examples:
Ball security is job security. It took 4 weeks to give Stevenson a consequence and the consequence was rhetorical. He didn’t start but played as much as normal and then it was forgotten. Until it happened again and he was benched, but wasn’t. No commitment to a standard of belief. Also the week Stevenson was “benched” for Brissett threw a pick 6 and fumbled twice and with Maye behind him ready to go, nothing.

We need to evaluate the young guys.
Polk doesn’t barely see the field. Nor does Baker. We throw a bunch of wr screens and under routes, if there was a commitment to finding out about the young guys they would throw those to them. Why is Ngakoue playing? Why is Wallace not playing big Jacobs and Lowe are? Why did it take an injury to practice squad Brown to get strange out there? It seemed like White played very little early yesterday. Why? We signed Jennings for 2025 why zero reps?

There just seems to be a rhetorical belief in what they are saying they are about and no commitment to it.

 

[Ring 6]

He's literally not an exception. Most coaches end up failing and most coaches end up having issues their first year.

That's just reality.

Every coach I listed was a multi time Super Bowl winning HC. Vince Lombardi, Don Shula, Tom Flores and Joe Gibbs are the only others and they are the ones that started decent. That's 4 guys. I listed 8 who had horrible starts.

The exception for multi SB winning coaches is to start out with a good record and a decent first year. The rule is growing pains.

Again, that doesn't mean Mayo is that guy or anything. But it's a pretty dumb metric when I can go by the coaches who had the highest level of success and show they would fit on the OP's list. The reality is most coaches just fail.

Most of the coaches you listed were not from the free agency era which is a big factor. Prior to free agency it was almost impossible to turn a bad team around quickly and probably impossible in 1 year.
Landry started with an expansion team, so that isn’t really a fair inclusion.

 

[Real fan 02]

How is Mayo going to "strengthen his staff" if no one better than the staff he has now will want to come?

Meaning bringing in a veteran coach like Mike wilks.. I wish I had the answer Ross but I'm just summizing.. I know that we need a new HC but they won't make any changes now at HC.

 

[Real fan 02]

they will look more like asses if they bring him back. After seeing the way this team played this year, the Kraft family needs to make some hard choices. Mayo may be a great guy, he may become a good coach, in time. But he shouldn't be "learning on the job". They shouldn't perpetuate a bad decision (hiring Mayo) with another bad decision (keeping Mayo).

Agreed ... I'm just looking at the full view I guess. Then again who knows RK may decide on black Monday he made a mistake and kick him into role in the organization.

 

[Ross12]

I don't agree with that at all. I think it's just a total crapshoot just like QB's. They can look above average year one, but after 2-3 years you can kinda determine if they are a bust and most are. Every 3 years, about half the league turns over HC's.

I mean the proof is in the data right? I have a list in the opening post of all rookie coaches with 4 or fewer wins between 2008 and 2023, which was 23 such coaches. Of those 23 coaches, you have maybe 2 worth something in the end as HCs. Conversely, in that same timeframe, there were 30 rookie coaches who had 9 or more wins in their first year. If you wanna know a few of them:

-John Harbaugh (Super Bowl winner, still going)
-Rex Ryan (made AFCCG)
-Jim Caldwell (made Super Bowl)
-Jim Harbaugh (made Super Bowl)
-Bill O'Brien (made it to Divisional round a couple times)
-Sean McDermott (made AFCCG, several divisionals, look great this year)
-Sean McVay (Super Bowl winner, still going)
-Mike Vrabel (made a 1 seed and an AFCCG)
-Matt LaFleur (made NFCCG)
-Nick Sirianni (made Super Bowl)
-Kevin O'Connel (13 wins in 2 out of 3 seasons)
-Demeco Ryans (made AFC divisional round in 1st year)

Then there were many more that made the playoffs in their first year, or had a ~.500 year in the first season but went on to do a lot more (like Kyle Shanahan for instance). So I think in general yes the data does hold up that a coach with a winning record in year 1 tends to be more successful over his full tenure than a coach with a sub-.300 record in year 1, at least over the last 15 years.

 

[ScottishPatriots]

Not only was he the exception to the rule Dan Campbell also finished 3-3 and the team visibly improved at the end of the season and gave signs that things were moving forward to give you hope for a second season, there are no signs of that with the Patriots.

The team looked more prepared in week 1 than week 17, that's not good.

 

[lancerman]

I mean the proof is in the data right? I have a list in the opening post of all rookie coaches with 4 or fewer wins between 2008 and 2023, which was 23 such coaches. Of those 23 coaches, you have maybe 2 worth something in the end as HCs. Conversely, in that same timeframe, there were 30 rookie coaches who had 9 or more wins in their first year. If you wanna know a few of them:

-John Harbaugh (Super Bowl winner, still going)
-Rex Ryan (made AFCCG)
-Jim Caldwell (made Super Bowl)
-Jim Harbaugh (made Super Bowl)
-Bill O'Brien (made it to Divisional round a couple times)
-Sean McDermott (made AFCCG, several divisionals, look great this year)
-Sean McVay (Super Bowl winner, still going)
-Mike Vrabel (made a 1 seed and an AFCCG)
-Matt LaFleur (made NFCCG)
-Nick Sirianni (made Super Bowl)
-Kevin O'Connel (13 wins in 2 out of 3 seasons)
-Demeco Ryans (made AFC divisional round in 1st year)

Then there were many more that made the playoffs in their first year, or had a ~.500 year in the first season but went on to do a lot more (like Kyle Shanahan for instance). So I think in general yes the data does hold up that a coach with a winning record in year 1 tends to be more successful over his full tenure than a coach with a sub-.300 record in year 1, at least over the last 15 years.

Rex had two good years and then left the team trashed and trashed another team.
Vrabel had 3 good years and then bottomed out and got fired.
Demeco got fired from his first team ever
Sirianni is a ****head who is coasting on talent.
Caldwell is not considered a good coach or a success story.
McDermott was on the hotseat this year and will be again if they have a bad playoff exit.

It's hard to judge current coaches when in 5 years a lot of the guys you listed won't be viewed favorably.

 

[n1997y]

Not that I think Mayo is the answer or anything but:

Bill Belichick: went 5-11 year one here and had 5 losing seasons out of 6 before winning his first ring.

Bill Walsh: went 2-14 his first year in San Fran

Chuck Noll: went 1-13 his first year in Pittsburgh

Tom Landry: went 0-11 when he took over the Cowboys and then went 4-9 his first full year as coach. In fact he didn't have a winning season until year 7.

Andy Reid went 5-11 his first year as HC of the Eagles.

Tom Coughlin went 4-12 his first year on the Giants

Bill Parcells went 3-12-1 his first year on the Giants

Jimmy Johnson went 1-15 his first year in Dallas

Those are the majority of multi time winning SB coaches in league history. All your list really does is show that most coaches end up failing in general. The majority that do succeed do tend to have really rough first years. Guys like Lombardi and Shula are the exceptions more than the rule.

That's not me making an estimation on Mayo one way or the other. But you do have to consider that very rarely is the first year the best case scenario to judge any new coach under.

All your list really does is show most coaches start with poor teams so have little success in their first year.

Think about how coaching vacancies occur: incumbents were either fired, or retired. Nobody gets fired for winning, so all those vacancies are with bad teams. Of course their successors have little success in their first year. Duh.

 

[Ross12]

Rex had two good years and then left the team trashed and trashed another team.
Vrabel had 3 good years and then bottomed out and got fired.
Demeco got fired from his first team ever
Sirianni is a ****head who is coasting on talent.
Caldwell is not considered a good coach or a success story.
McDermott was on the hotseat this year and will be again if they have a bad playoff exit.

It's hard to judge current coaches when in 5 years a lot of the guys you listed won't be viewed favorably.

I just think we are talking about different things here. I'll drop it.

 

[n1997y]

The worst part about this is it isn't even coaching that's hurt him. It's the unneeded shooting himself in the foot in terms of what he's said to the media, which has obviously become a running joke here. Any other coach, I think the outrage would be far worse and the only reason it's not is because he's at least a former player from here.

He's said so many horrific things and created so many unneeded issues that it shows he's immature and there's really no coming back from it, other than time - which would have to happen after he quietly works as an assistant/coordinator elsewhere. No one is going to want to come work here knowing what has transpired and if they're unaware, their agent is sure to advise them and will have likely done the research.

This is an all-or-nothing situation. You either completely clean house, or you run it back and hope better personnel fixes it. And I just don't feel like the latter can possibly be an option because of how badly he's handled himself.

I disagree. The coaching has been not been apparent, but it’s been worse than his media gaffes. Thing is, those media mess ups are visible and easily highlighted. If his coaching had any visible positive impact the media issues wouldn’t be taken as seriously. But his deer in the headlights sideline presence, his consistent lack of any in game adjustments, and the overall regression of performance across the board through the season provide a fertile ground for his media flubs to flourish.

 

[lancerman]

All your list really does is show most coaches start with poor teams so have little success in their first year.

Think about how coaching vacancies occur: incumbents were either fired, or retired. Nobody gets fired for winning, so all those vacancies are with bad teams. Of course their successors have little success in their first year. Duh.

And so did Mayo.... That's my point. Most coaches will fail. You could use virtually any criteria and most coaches will end up being viewed as mistakes after a long enough period.

 

[cmasspatsfan]

Wonder how everyone would feel if Mayo was good with the media and didn't stick his foot in his mouth weekly. Shouldn't be basing decision on how they interact with the media, ie. see BB.

 

[n1997y]

I'll save you the keystrokes, you have been desperately looking for a quick fix for this team the last few years and most of the time have been wrong. Mayo might or might not be the answer. He probably isn't. But pointing out a bunch of HC's failed with bad first years is not a relevant argument. Most successful coaches have bad first years. Most HC's fail in general. It's a numbers game.

The better argument against Mayo is how the team looks on the field.

Exactly.

He wanders the sidelines during games, looking like a deer in the headlights. Apparently that look is appropriate because when asked about specific plays post game the answer is always “I need to see the film” like he hasn’t watched the game at all. Thats probably why he doesn’t make adjustments during games, because he hasn’t seen the All 22 yet.

It’s not just how the team looks on the field. It’s how it looks now versus start of the season. Remember the first game of the year? How did that look, compared to yesterday? Case closed.

 

[TheRainMaker]

Dan Campbell is lucky as hell he survived as he was unqualified to stay the HC. But the talk has been about his assistants the last two years and not really him.

But unlike Mayo, Campbell isn’t a bumbling idiot throwing his players under the bus and refusing blame. I guarantee you he flexes that he played and coached with Bill and that he knows better. This is what got all of the Bill assistant’s in trouble and eventually fired.

 

[Ring 6]

Exactly.

He wanders the sidelines during games, looking like a deer in the headlights. Apparently that look is appropriate because when asked about specific plays post game the answer is always “I need to see the film” like he hasn’t watched the game at all. Thats probably why he doesn’t make adjustments during games, because he hasn’t seen the All 22 yet.

It’s not just how the team looks on the field. It’s how it looks now versus start of the season. Remember the first game of the year? How did that look, compared to yesterday? Case closed.

Win/loss record in your first season is never the reason to fire a coach.
(Almost) No coach is hired for year 1 results.
Mayo shouldn’t be fired for going 3-14, Mayo should be fired because the things he has dine as HC, the mentality and culture that he created, the attention to detail, work ethic, game planning, teaching and developing, accountability and schemes have all been horribly bad.
Parcells came here and was 1-11 before winning meaningless games that today people would ***** because he screwed up the draft slot.
But it was clear, Parcells had brought in a winning culture and the team was progressing.
There is nothing at all indicating progress this year.

 

[n1997y]

Wonder how everyone would feel if Mayo was good with the media and didn't stick his foot in his mouth weekly. Shouldn't be basing decision on how they interact with the media, ie. see BB.

BB could coach. He made players better. His teams were competitive. Mayo has not shown any of that.

 

[Ross12]

Dan Campbell is lucky as hell he survived as he was unqualified to stay the HC. But the talk has been about his assistants the last two years and not really him.

But unlike Mayo, Campbell isn’t a bumbling idiot throwing his players under the bus and refusing blame. I guarantee you he flexes that he played and coached with Bill and that he knows better. This is what got all of the Bill assistant’s in trouble and eventually fired.

It'll be interesting to see what happens to the team under Campbell once Ben Johnson takes a HC job this offseason. Heck, his DC Aaron Glenn may also become a HC. Losing both coordinators might become a problem for them. At least the team is talented and will attract talented backfills.

 

[Ring 6]

Wonder how everyone would feel if Mayo was good with the media and didn't stick his foot in his mouth weekly. Shouldn't be basing decision on how they interact with the media, ie. see BB.

His media interaction is just a window into the dysfunction of his leadership.

 

[WinstonSmith]

It'll be interesting to see what happens to the team under Campbell once Ben Johnson takes a HC job this offseason. Heck, his DC Aaron Glenn may also become a HC. Losing both coordinators might become a problem for them. At least the team is talented and will attract talented backfills.

This underscores why owners should place a premium on targeting prodigious OCs in their HC search. A team led by a creative player caller can better survive the battle of coaching attrition.

 

[p8ryts]

Getting sick and tired of hearing people mention Dan Campbell's name in relation to Jerod Mayo, implying that since Dan Campbell only won 3 games his first year and has since turned it around, Jerod can/will do it too.

NEWS FLASH: Dan Campbell is the massive exception to the rule. Dan Campbell is somewhat of a unicorn. There have been many coaches that started out with such seasons like this and went on to do jack ****. Most of them got fired after their first year. Some got fired mid-season.

I went back to 2009 to see how many first-time head coaches ended their seasons with 4 or fewer wins (since that is the max Mayo will achieve). I invite everyone to read below and let me know your thoughts on if this list is full of guys just like Dan Campbell who turned it around after year 1 and got their team to become conference powerhouses in year 2/3.

Year​	Coach​	Team​	First Year Record​
2009​	Jim Schwartz	Lions	2-14
	Steve Spagnuolo	Rams	1-15
	Raheem Morris	Buccaneers	3-13
	Todd Haley	Chiefs	4-12
2011​	Lezlie Frazier	Vikings	3-13
	Pat Shurmur	Browns	4-12
2012​	Dennis Allen	Raiders	4-12
	Mike Mularkey	Jaguars	2-14
2013​	Gus Bradley	Jaguars	4-12
	Rob Chudzinski	Browns	4-12
2014​	Lovie Smith	Buccaneers	2-14
	Jay Gruden	Commanders	4-12
	Ken Whisenhunt	Titans	2-14
2016​	Chip Kelly	49ers	2-14
2018​	Steve Wilks	Cardinals	3-13
2019​	Zac Taylor	Bengals	2-14
2021​	Dan Campbell	Lions	3-13-1
	Urban Meyer	Jaguars	2-11
	Robert Saleh	Jets	4-13
	David Culley	Texans	4-13
2022​	Nathaniel Hackett	Broncos	4-11
	Matt Eberflus	Bears	3-14
2023​	Jonathon Gannon	Cardinals	4-13

Yes, and Campbell had been a coach in the league for a few years and was regarded well throughout the league. He was not inexperienced. He also had interim head coach experience. Not a comparison for Mayo. In fact, I don't think there was ever a comparison for Mayo.