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PostGame Thread OFFICIAL 2024 Week 1 Postgame Thread - Patriots Open 1-0 with a win over Cincy

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Not sure the point of that, in recent NFL history it's obvious passing relates to playoffs, rushing does not. The average NFL winning team is scoring 23 points, so 20 or under makes sense. The study below also proves it but I bet the effect is much more toward passing in recent history as this is from 2005, passing offenses are way more efficient today, I'd say the evidence is OVERWHELMING that a good/great passing offense is a guarantee of making the playoffs, rushing offense has no real effect on making playoffs. Partly because teams can stack the box and stop the run and playoff teams can stop run without stacking the box, much harder to stop a great passing attack.

Teams that win the turnover margin win the game almost 70 percent of the time.
Teams that win TOP win 67% of games


So in 900 regular season games, about 4% of this stat applies. When you just take out TO margin it leaves you with 13-14 games where the other things mattered.

Analyses by Jeremy Arkes, Associate Professor of Economics, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy, Naval Postgraduate School:

A problem with these simple assessments is that teams that are winning will rush the ball more to run out the clock and reduce the chance of turnovers and will often wait until the clock runs down before starting a play. So, if a team is heading towards victory, they are likely to increase their rushing yards while boosting their time of possession
The twist in this analysis is that the model corrects for endogeneity by using the first-half statistics. This essentially strips a large portion of the endogenous component from these statistics, as teams are not likely to change strategies to “ball preservation” or “speedy catch up” until the second half. Given that 78.5 percent of teams leading at halftime in 2005 games ended up winning the game, having a halftime advantage in many of these statistics should contribute to a higher probability of winning

This paper is the first analysis to model a production function for winning an NFL game based on in-game statistics. This carefully constructed framework, which models victories based on home-team over away-team statistics, can be used for other models for winning games in the NFL or in other sports leagues.

The results of this analysis cast doubt on the contention that the key to winning games in the NFL is to control the rushing game. The results do indicate that having a rushing advantage for the full game is positively correlated with the probability of winning and having a passing advantage for the full game is not correlated with winning, holding other factors constant. However, these correlations are likely due to endogeneity, in that full-game rushing and passing yards are partly products of a team’s success during the game. In other words, as demonstrated in this paper, the strategy for second-half rushing-passing mix depends on where a team stands at halftime. This means that we cannot label these correlations as causal influences.
#### Results

I find that having a first-half passing-yard advantage increases the probability of winning, but having a first-half rushing-yard advantage has no significant effect.

The results in this analysis suggest that NFL coaches may be more successful if they were to place more emphasis on the passing game than on the running game
Endogeneity is real.
But rushing vs. passing has little to do with it.
After conducting thorough research, I've concluded that the biggest factors are which hand I'm drinking my beer from during a game.
Also if I'm eating Cheezits, results are significantly different from me munching on pistachios
 
However, these correlations are likely due to endogeneity, in that full-game rushing and passing yards are partly products of a team’s success during the game. In other words, as demonstrated in this paper, the strategy for second-half rushing-passing mix depends on where a team stands at halftime. This means that we cannot label these correlations as causal influences.
Good points. When teams are ahead they switch to the 4-minute offense - more rushing and more time of possession. When teams are behind, they don't rush much at all.
 
I like Mayo confidence but I don’t think that there is many teams that are afraid of Brissett dicing them.

If a team can stop the run, I think we are in trouble with Brissett at QB.
Even still very intrigued to see what the answers are that Mayo is stating they have for that situation. Can't some confidence in that and then maybe we can be more dangerous than anyone expected.
 

"Work in progress" I swear I'm living in an alternate reality.
Okorafor was *pulled* in the first quarter, your starting left tackle, because he was so bad. Robinson damn near got Brissett killed, because he decided it was a good idea to double-team the end (who Onwenu had at a complete stalemate), instead of the free rusher right in front of him. 2-5 on playaction throws because there was no time. David Andrews was too slow to get out on a screen. It was through the sheer force of will Brissett completed any passes at all. That pass protection was the worst I've seen in my 40+ years of being a Patriots fan, worse than Rod Rust/**** McPherson. There were three players on that line that couldn't pass protect at *all*.

It's a serious problem that the front office decided to not bother addressing in the offseason. That defense is much better than I expected, and they're going to waste another year of it, because they couldn't be bothered to address the offensive line. It's incredibly frustrating. I'm not sure Prime Brady could have done much better behind that line.
 
"Work in progress" I swear I'm living in an alternate reality.
Okorafor was *pulled* in the first quarter, your starting left tackle, because he was so bad. Robinson damn near got Brissett killed, because he decided it was a good idea to double-team the end (who Onwenu had at a complete stalemate), instead of the free rusher right in front of him. 2-5 on playaction throws because there was no time. David Andrews was too slow to get out on a screen. It was through the sheer force of will Brissett completed any passes at all. That pass protection was the worst I've seen in my 40+ years of being a Patriots fan, worse than Rod Rust/**** McPherson. There were three players on that line that couldn't pass protect at *all*.

It's a serious problem that the front office decided to not bother addressing in the offseason. That defense is much better than I expected, and they're going to waste another year of it, because they couldn't be bothered to address the offensive line. It's incredibly frustrating. I'm not sure Prime Brady could have done much better behind that line.
I think we need Sow and Strange back.

Lowe-Strange-Andrews-Sow-Onwenwu could wind up our best 5.

Whatever the 5 we do settle on LT is probably still going to be a weakness so we really need to lockup the other 4 so we can give the LT the help he needs.
 
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"Work in progress" I swear I'm living in an alternate reality.
Okorafor was *pulled* in the first quarter, your starting left tackle, because he was so bad. Robinson damn near got Brissett killed, because he decided it was a good idea to double-team the end (who Onwenu had at a complete stalemate), instead of the free rusher right in front of him. 2-5 on playaction throws because there was no time. David Andrews was too slow to get out on a screen. It was through the sheer force of will Brissett completed any passes at all. That pass protection was the worst I've seen in my 40+ years of being a Patriots fan, worse than Rod Rust/**** McPherson. There were three players on that line that couldn't pass protect at *all*.

It's a serious problem that the front office decided to not bother addressing in the offseason. That defense is much better than I expected, and they're going to waste another year of it, because they couldn't be bothered to address the offensive line. It's incredibly frustrating. I'm not sure Prime Brady could have done much better behind that line.
Keep in mind that Okafor was 'starting' because Lowe had been injured and had only been back practicing 4 days.
 
He could easily get knocked out by injury before he actually loses the job.
If Brissett is likely to get knocked out by injury is that the kind of situation you want to put Maye into? Remember Brissett is a big tough seasoned NFL veteran who is a good running QB, so if he gets injured it’s very likely Maye would also.
 
I agree that it would be bad to take Brissett out if he is playing well and has the support of the locker room. Given his track record, I think that will take care of itself. A few games where the team needs to come from behind will expose his limitations. Ultimately the players will support Maye if he earns his shot at the starting job in practice.
I’m concerned about the report that Maye was not engaged on the sideline, that he did not join in the coach-QB conversations during the game but instead stood off by himself missing a chance to learn. If that’s a sign he’s checked out when he’s not playing it’s bad, and could carry over to preparation during the week. To me it’s not doing his job, what if Brissett went down on the next play and Maye had to go in not knowing what coaches had said moments before? The more I think about it the worse I feel it is. It’s definitely not a good way to earn playing time IMO.
 
Call me crazy, but I have been thinking about this for a few years - with teams transitioning more and more towards high flying passing attacks and stocking their defensive rosters with more corners and lighter DLs/more "tweener" LBs, it seems like there's been a prime opportunity to really take advantage of that trend with a punishing running game. Teams, on average, are just not built to stop the run these days - and even if they can do it decently, they don't have much depth in that regard and you will wear them down after a little while. Even the Patriots' defense itself is probably susceptible to this problem.
I agree and the resurgence of running is likely the next evolution of the NFL. We appeared to be building towards that starting in 2021 but Mac/Zappe made it too easy to stack the box and take away any size advantage.
 
Gonzalez gets another big test in either of the Seahawks WR's.

It's been over 10 years since the Patriots have drafted a Pro Bowl/All Pro player on defense since 2013 (Jamie Collins). White and Gonzalez are the two candidates to break the streak. It's a shame what happened to Barmore as that would give them an even bigger boost. It's not cool what Judon did pulling that stunt over a new deal, only to get traded but not get upset to play on the same deal with the Falcons.
 
I’m concerned about the report that Maye was not engaged on the sideline, that he did not join in the coach-QB conversations during the game but instead stood off by himself missing a chance to learn. If that’s a sign he’s checked out when he’s not playing it’s bad, and could carry over to preparation during the week. To me it’s not doing his job, what if Brissett went down on the next play and Maye had to go in not knowing what coaches had said moments before? The more I think about it the worse I feel it is. It’s definitely not a good way to earn playing time IMO.
Who reported it?
I'm skeptical about this.
75% (probably higher)of Boston sports media is full of ****
 
I agree and the resurgence of running is likely the next evolution of the NFL. We appeared to be building towards that starting in 2021 but Mac/Zappe made it too easy to stack the box and take away any size advantage.
We've seen a few teams have a lot of success largely through the run game in the last few years. Once Maye is ready, I think they have the pieces to actually do some damage even if they don't have that "premier" #1. This is probably why they were in on Aiyuk - he's a great WR but also a nasty blocker so he fits what they want to do very well.
 
All-22 QB review
Post a link to Lazar's tape review, he covers the whole team and does a great job, I solely, for now, am focusing on offense, did O line and RB and posted earlier in this thread, now the QB and hopefully tomorrow will get to the WR's. I also plan on looking at every Rookie QB that played, and possibly more on NFL QBs if I have the time.
I decided to break it down by series, have attached the screen shot of my play-by-play notes. You only get so many series and important the QB maximizes the potential of each drive. The play-by-play notes will sound more negative than I actually analyze, I may see he had this guy or that guy open, but QB play is fast, decisions are fast, every QB misses open guys, it's the context of it all, the % of misses, the pressure etc.

Reminder that Cincy was the WORST team in the NFL in 2023 for Net Yards per attempt passing against and 2nd worst running yards per attempt, this was not a good defense last year. They stunk on defense last year, keep that in mind.

Series 1
Solid series, 1 good play to first read and then good pass to KJ where defender makes real good play, solid series for Jacoby even though they punted

Series 2
Good, solid series by Jacoby. One bad play was the rollout to the right, missed wide open TE for first down. I did find Jacoby was terrible throwing on the run, the Play Action Bootlegs worked great, Jacoby can't throw while moving though, if only they had a QB that has shown he's really good at that? Other than that 1 pass I think Jacoby maximized this drive. They scored a TD as a result, Good QB play equals TD, Huh, who'd have thunk?

Series 3
Jacoby played like a bad QB. He gave away the series, 100% on him. Great designed Play action bootleg, 2 guys open, waits too long and throws wide to the shorter open guy. Common theme with Jacoby, throw shorter when longer option exists. If only we had a QB that has shown the ability to throw the ball past 10 yards? He then sailed a pass to KJ, though short of sticks, had DD open behind him for first down, after the play the defensive guys were arguing on who was supposed to have covered DD since neither guy did..

Series 4
Cincy fumbled at 1 before this drive. 1st 3 pass plays on drive were wide open receivers and he hit them from pocket. Then we get the almost pick in the End Zone. Did not sense pressure until too late, should have taken sack or recognized pressure sooner and threw away, no matter what just a bad play. Next play he had to move up in pocket after pressure, if he stepped up and THEN looked had DD for TD, instead bails from pocket left though did not need to bail pocket then, so now pressure chases him, has TD possible back of EZ but can't throw across body on run and instead slides down and FG. Missed 2 potential TD's as minor pressure he panicked out of pocket. Good QB play and it is a TD.

Series 5
Tough series for the passing part of the offense. 3 step drop, Pats had 2 outside receiver on go routes. 1 high safety is shaded to the TT side. Polk has no safety over the top. First read is the safety and then pick the other go route, for some reason Jacoby, with 3 step drop, no pressure tries to throw to TT, double team, way overthrows. On the other side Polk beat his man and has a step or 2, DEFINATE long completion and possible TD. No idea what Jacoby was thinking, missed a huge play with a basic read. Followed by a scramble running QB play and then Lowe getting beat, Jacoby has to roll left, has a chance at the TE in a little bit of a tight window but again, would need to throw on the run so instead throws it away. I put this series on Jacoby and Lowe but Jacoby had a potential huge play and missed it for reasons I can't fathom. If only we had a QB that's shown he can process really fast?

Series 6
1 pass attempt on 3rd down after punt fumble. All day to throw, throws short of sticks, Austin Hooper is open from the moment he leaves the line of scrimmage until the play is over and he's wide open at the 4 yard line. Bad processing, Bad QB play.

Series 7
Not really on Jacoby in terms of he had a free rusher blitz, one of the Robinson missing the blitz plays. He does have the hot read to Rhamondre but sees the open DD at sidelines 13 yards downfield but inaccurate throw falling away as rusher is in his face. He saw the blitz immediately and backed up But kind of panicked at that point.
If only we had a QB with proven ability to have arm strength while throwing off balance?

Series 8
Good back shoulder throw to Polk, he had a better option in DD open over the middle for big YAC potential, but Polk was first read and he hit it so good play. Avoids pressure from Lowes guy, scrambles for a couple, had some dump offs but yardage gained would not have been any different, fine play. Then a good throw to Hooper with a good pocket, solid play/ Next play good pocket easy throw to wide open TE, defense arguing with each other after over who was supposed to cover. Screen pass blown up and then a connected easy pitch and catch slant. Solid series overall

Series 9
3rd and 5 at the 47, Polk wide open coming over middle, Jacoby decides to throw short of the sticks to DD, he's stopped for 4th down, Polk was visibly frustrated on the field that he did not get the ball. I don't get the read, he had time, DD would have needed to break 3 tackles to get a first, should have looked elsewhere.

Summary
I'm trying to figure out what Jacoby does well. In the game he had a few nice scrambles, he hit a nice back shoulder throw, good throw taking a hit on 2 different plays. No Picks, though had 1 in the EZ that got knocked away, no fumbles but he wasn't really hit in the pocket while he had the ball. They had a realistic chance of putting 28 points on the board with a couple better decisions. Not winning many game scoring 16 points against a bad defense. I did not see many plays where he made adjustments or changed plays. He missed s number of open guys even when he had time. Chuks and Robinson did not leave you with a good feeling on pass blocking, they limited the passes and they did not need Jacoby to throw. It also seems like they don't want him to throw. Just don't screw up
He was 31st in passing yards for the week. 26th in QB rating. Also 26th in total attempts.
He was rated 23rd QB for Passing by PFF for week 1. Top 10 guys were above a 70, Jacoby was 57.2. Seems in the area he should have been. He is what he is at this point.

 

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I’m concerned about the report that Maye was not engaged on the sideline, that he did not join in the coach-QB conversations during the game but instead stood off by himself missing a chance to learn. If that’s a sign he’s checked out when he’s not playing it’s bad, and could carry over to preparation during the week. To me it’s not doing his job, what if Brissett went down on the next play and Maye had to go in not knowing what coaches had said moments before? The more I think about it the worse I feel it is. It’s definitely not a good way to earn playing time IMO.
If Maye was really checked out that would be bad. That seems out of character based on how things have gone to date. I heard Zo address this concern. His take was that they are only asking Maye to listen to the radio and that he was doing the right things.
 
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