Once Maye Is Ready, Should We Even Carry 3 QB's?

[rkarp1]

If Milton looks great in preseason and they know exposing him to waivers will get him poached, then they'll probably keep him on the 53 on cutdown day and move him to the protected practice squad spot after the fact. The new practice squad rules are a great addition in my view.

it does not work that way
the protected player list (4 players) starts on Tuesday of each week, meaning on Monday players can be poached. they go on the protected list each Tuesday

 

[XLIX]

I don't have faith that we could cut any of our 3 main QB's (Brissette, Maye, Milton) and not have them scooped up by some other team, so let's not outsmart ourselves by over-tinkering with the roster.

 

[Stu Pidassle]

Not the same boat! We will have Eliot Wolf, an extraordinary genius, making our next QB pick. Let’s hope Maye pans out.

I am a Maye believer as well. He certainly seems much more comfortable with the role and has way more physical capability than Mac.

 

[KCSVEN]

I don't understand how you can say no one of his college pedigree has ever busted?

Ryan Leaf? Marcus Marriotta? Johnny Manzel? They came from similar pedigrees.

I also don't understand how Mahomes is the only comp? I though Caleb Williams was the "Mahomes" guy and Maye is more of a Herbert/Allen/Roethlisburger type.

It's my own personal scouting. I spent hundreds of hours figuring out what historically led to a high % chance of becoming a top NFL QB.
So, as a prospect if you weigh the factors that make you a great NFL QB. Maye and Mahomes have those factors, the others listed do not. Though Herbert was neck and neck with Mahomes/Maye for best prospect, He just did not have the special things Maye and Mahomes have/had as a prospect IMHO.

I probably have 20+ pages long of detail (started writing this up for the draft board but was way too long) BUT some data that reflects this:

Power 5 QB’s with since 2004, Power 5 QB's with 105+ total epa, 80+ passing epa and 15+ rushing epa in a season:

2022 Drake Maye
2022 Caleb Williams
2019 Joe Burrow
2019 Jalen Hurts
2018 Kyler Murray
2017 Baker Mayfield
2016 Patrick Mahomes
2014 Marcus Mariota

Maye is 1 of 7 college football quarterback in the 21st Century to throw for more than 4,000 passing yards and run for more than 650 rushing yards

QB's that Threw for 300 yards per game and led team in rushing:

Drake Maye, Patrick Mahomes, Johnny Manziel, Jayden Daniels

Mariota and Manziel don't match up after careful analysis, and yes, good call on those 2 comparisons as they both show up in above. I had to look at them quite a bit, especially Mariota, Manziel was an easy non-comp, likely bust.

Statistically the QB needs to be At least 6 feet 2 and 215 pounds, a few outliers to this but we are talking percentages, odds of a QB being under that size and being a top 10 QB is incredibly low. Manziel was too small, and Manziel had well known severe character issues but his height alone rules him out as a top prospect. Yes, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, they were different than Manziel, part of the 20+ pages but outliers and also not first round picks. Again, we are talking % chance of being a great QB. Manziel and Drake Maye have no similarities as a prospect in that regard.

Caleb Williams has a terrible deep ball, scared to get hit (ZERO throws while being hit last year), has an over 30% sack fault %, around Bryce Young's college level. Great playmaker though, height a big issue but slightly less so because he moves around so he can see (Bryce Young can't see middle of the field), but not close to Mahomes, not close to Maye.

Mariota threw to wide open receivers a la Bo Nix. Does not translate to NFL when analyzing on a play-by-play analysis. He also Fumbled 27 times during his career, avoiding negative plays is a huge factor, Maye was in the 70th percentile, Williams in the 39th percentile on that (lower is worse).

Ryan Leaf had a bad completion %. Too important to have as a top prospect in 1st round.
Josh Allen changes his mechanics to correct his accuracy issue, Leaf would have to have been a once in a generation type like Allen that could do that, odds of that obviously tiny so makes him not a top prospect.

Mahomes show's up in almost every stat that means something, it's basically him and Maye every time I find something that correlates to NFL success. I don't get how he was not #1 overall. I think Mahomes is overrated a bit, he's not Brady/Manning level but he's with Herbert and Allen as the top 3 QB's today. Maye should be at that level.

ONLY QB to have a season with those epa numbers, throw for 300 yards per game AND lead team in rushing with over 650 yards
Drake Maye

I have Maye, Mahomes, Herbert best prospects since Luck.

I would have missed on Josh Allen but he is a very unique and fascinating case, outlier for sure. But can honestly say would not have drafted him in the first and can say he beat the statistical and analytical evidence, respect to him!

Allen and Brees beat the percentages and they were/are special, I would not have wagered a top of first pick on that, I go with the odds, I go with the research.

Maye's 2 negatives: takes too many sacks, borderline on that stat, and hand size at 9 1/8 is above the 9" minimum statistically needed but not the ideal #.

 

[denverpatsfan]

Need 3 QB's. What else do you want to do with the roster spot? 2 kickers?

 

[Wozzy]

He will still have to clear waivers whatever moment they choose to try to get him on the PS. If he looks good in preseason he won’t clear. But I doubt we’ll have to worry about him making much of an impression, so he should clear.

It's probably a great time to remind people here that all 32 team are struggling to cut down to 53 man rosters, all 32 teams like the roster they have and believe in their players. Hope springs eternal, and everyone truly believes in their heart they have a chance that season.



Less than 3% of players exposed to waivers get claimed. I'd bet the number for backup QB's is substantially lower because teams need to have these young players in their system to even understand it, or know if said player fits their system.

Last year people here were fretting over Malik Cunningham... perspective people, nobody wants your junk or developmental projects.

 

[Real fan 02]

As the #3 overall pick, I think being the second option is not only possible, but probable. There are already reports he’s leapfrogged Zappe and is close to outplaying JB.

I’d advocate for Maye to start the year no lower than #2. Things happen. If JB starts and gets injured, bring in a vet at that point to back up Maye.

Well not for nothing.. Zappe is only 5FT tall so not hard to jump over him LOL.. joke. Yes I'd expect to continue to hear maye is getting better each day come camp.. he did well against the first team defense in Mini camp.. dropping 3 TDs.. impressive even though it's in shorts and shells.. the real test is coming in camp. I so much want him to start.. if he's ready how does mayo not start him?

 

[Real fan 02]

Until they play, everyone is 0-0.

And yes, our 2023 team was the 3rd worst in the NFL.

To predict that we will be as bad this year is your choice. At very least, the injuries should be many, many fewer.

You know I've accepted that there are some posters here that seem like they WANT us to be bad.. some are spiteful because bills not here. Can't see how they call themselves patriots fans.. barring any significant injuries to key players we project to be a better team going into to next season.. I'm willing to accept the uncertainty over the direction we were heading previously.

 

[mgteich]

This.... If maye turns out to be rg III then milton is our cousins ..I don't see the front office allowing Mayo to drop Milton out of 53 And I think everyone has an agreement on that .

We have 2 projects and we will see which one sticks. If maye works out that's the best case. If Milton develops we can trade him for a second rounder or 2 just like garopollo .

Especially on a losing season like this year , Milton is more valuable than the 53rd player who is going to be a backup LB or CB or STer. Go with Milton , it's an easy decision. If everyone is injured, the season is anyways thrown out of the window, just get whoever can play out of PS of other teams.

We are definitely looking at top 3 draft pick next year.

Surely you are talking about a 4th round draft choice.

You describe a lock for the roster.

Milton is not in any way a lock for the 53-man roster. You may believe that everyone agrees that he is a lock. Certainly "everyone" doesn't agree with you. Has Milton been a great surprise in camp? He's a 6th round project. The Front Office will decide whether they are so afraid of losing him that they put him on the 53. I don't think even Zappe made the 53 last year.

Sure, we HOPE that he shows enough to COACHES in camp and the preseason so that he makes the 53. But there have been many Milton's and there will be many more (fan binkie late round QB's).

 

[Force Zero Boomer]

Last year people here were fretting over Malik Cunningham... perspective people, nobody wants your junk or developmental projects.

Bro, he can throw it out of the stadium. Hail Marys from the end zone!

 

[VJCPatriot]

Injuries happen in football. The way I see it Brissett is the starter, Maye backup 1, Milton backup 2.

I don't think Milton makes it to the practice squad if he gets waived so he's gonna be a long term keeper.

The only expendable QB in the room is probably Bailey Zappe. He's gonna be a camp arm but I don't see him making the final 53.

 

[XLIX]

Injuries happen in football. The way I see it Brissett is the starter, Maye backup 1, Milton backup 2.

I don't think Milton makes it to the practice squad if he gets waived so he's gonna be a long term keeper.

The only expendable QB in the room is probably Bailey Zappe. He's gonna be a camp arm but I don't see him making the final 53.

 

[mgteich]

How many Qb's made the 53 last year, and why?

 

[Force Zero Boomer]

Injuries happen in football. The way I see it Brissett is the starter, Maye backup 1, Milton backup 2.

I don't think Milton makes it to the practice squad if he gets waived so he's gonna be a long term keeper.

The only expendable QB in the room is probably Bailey Zappe. He's gonna be a camp arm but I don't see him making the final 53.

Zappe — or his vet backup QB replacement — will be on the 53. The only way Milton makes the 53 is if they carry 4 QBs or he’s playing another position.

 

[KCSVEN]

Injuries happen in football. The way I see it Brissett is the starter, Maye backup 1, Milton backup 2.

I don't think Milton makes it to the practice squad if he gets waived so he's gonna be a long term keeper.

The only expendable QB in the room is probably Bailey Zappe. He's gonna be a camp arm but I don't see him making the final 53.

Since almost everyone waived makes it to the practice squad and Milton almost went undrafted, I see very little chance anyone claims him.
Fans seem to be enamored with his arm strength but he's not a good QB and will have to beat extremely large odds to be a good QB 3 years from now when he'll be 27.
My goodness, The guy was in the lowest 13 percentile of all college QB's on accuracy from a clean pocket.
He should become a tight end and see if that will work.

 

[State]

What are the benchmarks? First off, Maye’s footwork is nowhere near ready. And who will be the blindside tackle? Some guy named Calvin?

You guys are putting the cart before the horse.

At least BB wasn’t at the helm for the draft. We would have traded down for JJ McCarthy.

 

[State]

Zappe — or his vet backup QB replacement — will be on the 53. The only way Milton makes the 53 is if they carry 4 QBs or he’s playing another position.

Yeah, you’re probably right. Putting in Maye to get Zach Wilsoned is nightmare #1.

 

[mgteich]

How many Qb's made the 53 last year, and why?

Once Maye is ready, we only need two, plus an emergency #3 from the Practice Squad. If both our top QB's are injured, a veteran much better than Zappe will be called in.

Folks seem to think that this veteran should be on the 53 so that he can step right in and win. IMO, that is not the role of the emergency QB.
To be clear, I think that several teams will carry only 2 QB's on the 53, especially now that the new rules allow the emergency QB to come from the Practice Squad. Essentially the scout QB from the Practice Squad "should" be the emergency QB.

I understand why we want another UNTIL MAYE is ready to play and be the #2, but not thereafter.

 

[Force Zero Boomer]

Yeah, you’re probably right. Putting in Maye to get Zach Wilsoned is nightmare #1.

Yes, and even worse, there's almost no reward for taking that risk. They save a roster spot? Weigh that on the scales against the future of the franchise.

That's why I think folks here who say the Pats will be rolling with Maye as 2 and Milton as 3 to start the season are just not thinking this through. Imagine that the OL is just sucking in game one (not unrealistic), and Brissett has been sacked 3 times by mid 2nd qtr, and on sack 4 he's really nailed and gets hurt. You are *really* throwing Maye out there? Insane. Nope, that's definitely Zappe time.

 

[mgteich]

Need 3 QB's. What else do you want to do with the roster spot? 2 kickers?

Are you really saying that we have no need for roster spots at any positions?

I guess decisions on cut-down day will be easy.

But I'll play.

After Maye is ready, I'd want to have the following on Offense. I do understand that we need someone like Zappe to start the season on the 53-man roster if Maye and/or the OL isn't ready for prime time.

OFFENSE (25)
QB - 2
OT - 4 (especially if Wallace isn't ready for major contributions
IOL - 6 (3 starters, 3 backups)
RB - 4 (including a STer like Montgomery or Bolden
WR - 6
TE - 3