Patriots Pregame Thread Week 8 pregame: Pats @ Miami

[PatsWickedPissah]

Miami may be looking ahead to the KC game and hold Hill out to let him heal.

 

[venecol]

Miami may be looking ahead to the KC game and hold Hill out to let him heal.

Why, this is a divisional game that has more value.

 

[Ross12]

Well, the defense hasn't given up 25 points per game, as the offense has given up multiple scores. But even still, they've played:

Philly - Averages 26.6, Pats gave up 25
Miami - Averages 34.3, Pats gave up 24
Jets - Averages 18.8, Pats gave up 10
Dallas - Averages 25.5, Pats gave up 38 (only 31 on the defense, but still worse than average)
Saints - Averages 19, Pats gave up 34 (REALLY bad)
Raiders - Averages 16, Pats gave up 21 (2 on a safety)
Bills - Averages 28.3, Pats gave up 25

So outside of that three game stretch where things looked like they were falling apart, they've been holding teams under their season average. With the injuries they've had thus far, I don't think that's all that worrisome. This game in Miami (depending on the health of Tyreek and Mostert) always has the potential to skew the other way though, so we'll see how it goes the rest of the way.

Wasn't at least one of the TDs against New Orleans a turnover score, like a pick six?

 

[Patsfan1958]

Miami may be looking ahead to the KC game and hold Hill out to let him heal.

That's a great point!!

 

[Ross12]

Why, this is a divisional game that has more value.

They may look at themselves as "one of the big dogs" and value the tie breaker head-to-head against KC more for playoff seeding. Essentially already assuming they will probably win the division and so need to beat KC to try to get the 1 seed.

 

[SlowGettingUp]

 

[Thelonious]

Well, the defense hasn't given up 25 points per game, as the offense has given up multiple scores. But even still, they've played:

Philly - Averages 26.6, Pats gave up 25
Miami - Averages 34.3, Pats gave up 24
Jets - Averages 18.8, Pats gave up 10
Dallas - Averages 25.5, Pats gave up 38 (only 31 on the defense, but still worse than average)
Saints - Averages 19, Pats gave up 34 (REALLY bad)
Raiders - Averages 16, Pats gave up 21 (2 on a safety)
Bills - Averages 28.3, Pats gave up 25

So outside of that three game stretch where things looked like they were falling apart, they've been holding teams under their season average. With the injuries they've had thus far, I don't think that's all that worrisome. This game in Miami (depending on the health of Tyreek and Mostert) always has the potential to skew the other way though, so we'll see how it goes the rest of the way.

That's an excellent rejoinder to my concern. You did the work I didn't. The tough quality of opposition they've faced (the toughest in the league, somebody or other said, I vaguely recall) really does put the lie in part to the broader statistic I mentioned. Thanks.

 

[Sicilian]

Wasn't at least one of the TDs against New Orleans a turnover score, like a pick six?

You're right. And there's the general disadvantage of how many 3 and outs the offense was suffering in general, which gives the defense no rest and bad field position.

 

[Jim Beankie]

Wasn't at least one of the TDs against New Orleans a turnover score, like a pick six?

Yeah there was the Pick 6 (7pts) and the Mac fumble and interception for NO possession both at ~NE30 leading to 10pts (for a total of 17pts), buuuuttt... who's keeping track really?

 

[Sicilian]

That's an excellent rejoinder to my concern. You did the work I didn't. The tough quality of opposition they've faced (the toughest in the league, somebody or other said, I vaguely recall) really does put the lie in part to the broader statistic I mentioned. Thanks.

And don't misunderstand, I don't think anyone should think the defense is playing ELITE or anything. The injuries have piled up and they'll need to play more consistent than they have if they're going to make a run.

 

[Ross12]

You're right. And there's the general disadvantage of how many 3 and outs the offense was suffering in general, which gives the defense no rest and bad field position.

Yeah so it was really only around 27 points against for the defense vs. NO, which is at least CLOSER to the average... Still high, but when the offense is quite literally doing nothing at all, the defense is going to fall apart eventually.

My view is that the Dallas and NO games were a big **** sandwich because the Pats offense was falling apart at the same time that the Pats defense was losing almost all of its corners and Judon got hurt. So they really needed time to shuffle and adapt on defense, but instead the offense decided to melt down even worse.

Vegas was a bit of a "course correct" game where the offense started to look a little better and the defense was finding its footing again and returning toward closer to its usual output, and then the Buffalo game furthers that where the offense evolves and the defense seems to have found its rhythm again. So at the risk of sounding like a homer, I kinda toss the Dallas and NO games out the window when evaluating the defense because the injuries and the offensive meltdowns just meant they were boned regardless.

 

[Ross12]

7 WRs on the 53 is a lot of guys. Plus Slater makes 8. I have a feeling one of these guys ends up traded or on IR by next week.

 

[Sicilian]

7 WRs on the 53 is a lot of guys. Plus Slater makes 8. I have a feeling one of these guys ends up traded or on IR by next week.

7 WRs AND 3 TEs (with one of those guys being mostly WR himself). And one of their 3 RBs is a hybrid RB/WR. So even without Slater, you could argue this team has 9 WR right now!

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

7 WRs on the 53 is a lot of guys. Plus Slater makes 8. I have a feeling one of these guys ends up traded or on IR by next week.

Agree. Or released. Not sure JJSS or Parker have any trade value. After that the only path is IR or release.

 

[Brotherblues]

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Wasn't at least one of the TDs against New Orleans a turnover score, like a pick six?

By my count our offense has given up 28 points directly. Pick 6’s against dallas, philly, and no. Fumble return for td against dallas. So if any ppg is not taking this into account, we should actually be subtracting 4 ppg which is alot! And this doesn’t even take into consideration all the turnovers that have occurred in our territory which there’s been quite a few.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

****, figures

 

[Brotherblues]

7 WRs on the 53 is a lot of guys. Plus Slater makes 8. I have a feeling one of these guys ends up traded or on IR by next week.

If there's a trade I expect it'd be Parker.

 

[Brotherblues]

****, figures

They say he's doing normal cheetah things today, whatever that means. Purring at teammates and chewing zebras or something.

 

[SVN]

If there's a trade I expect it'd be Parker.

no one is giving a draft pick for him.