Predict the Pats' number of wins

[archstanton543]

So an 8-9 team that lost a couple of fluky games and had a QB injury and coaching issues will slide to 4-6 wins?
What parts of the team do you think are worse than last year?

Oline.

 

[Ring 6]

Oline.

Worse than last year?

 

[50-yard-line]

This is tougher this year than I can remember - mostly because you always had the weak division to fall back on for a few.

I think the Pats will be better this year than last in all phases of the game.

Offensively, their OL has a low bar to clear, given all the injuries and problems of last year, and with Wynn checked out.
Mac: should be better with an actual offense that plays to his historic strengths (note that I said HIS historic, please).
The WRs: Bourne is out of the doghouse, Douglas looks like the real deal, and Juju is at least equal to Meyers.
The TEs: Gesicki > Jonnu. Their #3 will be better, too (low bar).

Defensively: The 2nd. 3rd picks will be impactful, probably more so than their 1st-rounder for this year. White is an absolute load, and Mapu a missile. Plus a year in for Jones and Jones.

Special teams: Barringer is a field changer - Pats got burned on a lot of bad punts last year. Ryland may miss a few that Folk would have hit, but in KOs, he'll be way batter, particularly at the end of the year. He also extends their FG attempts by 10 yards. BB insists that Board is as good as it gets on STs, Schooler has a ear under his belt, as does Marcus.

Coaching? Low bar to clear. It was cleared by subtraction, never mind the additions!

So they're a better team, substantially, I think.

But their schedule is murderous, at least on paper. I expect them to be in a lot of close games, which leaves the question: can Mac Jones elevate his closing skills?

I chose 9 wins, but really, anthing between 6 and 11 wouldn't surprise me at all.

 

[archstanton543]

Worse than last year?

Yes.

 

[everlong]

Why would the team be worse this year if the ol is the same as last year?

Because the schedule is harder. Granted pre-season you never know but it looks a lot harder.

 

[Ring 6]

Yes.

4 of 5 are the same players, the 5th really couldn’t be worse than what we put out their last year.

 

[Ring 6]

Because the schedule is harder. Granted pre-season you never know but it looks a lot harder.

Schedule never turns out to be as expected.

 

[Thunderhead]

I went with more than 10 just to troll the pessimists. Triggered?

Nope, homers are cute.

 

[TheRainMaker]

4 of 5 are the same players, the 5th really couldn’t be worse than what we put out their last year.

That’s what’s bad about the O-line. Why would you think the same line returning is a good thing - especially at T?

Schedule never turns out to be as expected.

Teams on the schedule will turn out to be .500 or better which they’ve proven they can’t beat.

 

[Ring 6]

That’s what’s bad about the O-line. Why would you think the same line returning is a good thing - especially at T?

Teams on the schedule will turn out to be .500 or better which they’ve proven they can’t beat.

I asked what is worse. Brown figures to be better because he was ill for a number of weeks. Strange figures to be better in year 2. Andrews and Onwenu are vets. RT should be better than the mess that was there last year. I don’t see how it got worse.

They have 1 more team on this years
schedule that was over .500 last year than they did on last years schedule.
Those teams will not have the same record this year.

What exactly do you think the 2023 patriots have “proven”?

 

[TheRainMaker]

I asked what is worse. Brown figures to be better because he was ill for a number of weeks. Strange figures to be better in year 2. Andrews and Onwenu are vets. RT should be better than the mess that was there last year. I don’t see how it got worse.

They have 1 more team on this years
schedule that was over .500 last year than they did on last years schedule.
Those teams will not have the same record this year.

What exactly do you think the 2023 patriots have “proven”?

Until they prove otherwise, they can't beat teams .500 and above.

The roster shouldn't give you much confidence as they are pretty much the same team.

 

[archstanton543]

4 of 5 are the same players, the 5th really couldn’t be worse than what we put out their last year.

Never say "It can't get any worse". It always can.

 

[Dedhampatsfan]

10. They're much improved from last season.

 

[Ring 6]

Until they prove otherwise, they can't beat teams .500 and above.

The roster shouldn't give you much confidence as they are pretty much the same team.

They haven’t played a game yet.

 

[Bruins29]

Nope, homers are cute.

I don’t see how calling 10 wins is a homer. Maybe overly optimistic at worse

Now negative incel ****ies are cute. I mean like really cute.

 

[PScottman]

So an 8-9 team that lost a couple of fluky games and had a QB injury and coaching issues will slide to 4-6 wins?
What parts of the team do you think are worse than last year?

Like I said, it's the complementary of the whole. So many things have to go right...starting with an OL that hasn't been "right" for three seasons now that has cascading effects on the rest of the squad from QB (quick pressure is demonstrably Jones' major flaw that he doesn't compensate well for) to defense (any defense on the field either too long or in horrible field position because of said offense will be disadvantaged).

And while I didn't mention that they might not have gotten "worse" from an on paper talent perspective (and I don't believe they did), the rest of the division didn't either - and in fact likely improved in ways that further exacerbate the Pats OL and defense likely being on the field significant portions of games.

This is all guessing as has been said. My guesses carry no more or less weight than any others (and are just total gut frankly) because it's literally no different than picking lottery numbers. Josh Allen tears an ACL tomorrow that no one predicted and the whole landscape of everything changes. Trent Brown gets 'religion' and suddenly is as motivated as Tom Brady was...same thing.

We just don't know, so we make unsubstantiated attempts to organize the chaos that is football.

 

[PScottman]

Schooler has a ear under his belt

Maybe he can hear the footsteps for Mac when a DE or CB blitz is bearing down?

 

[PScottman]

4 of 5 are the same players, the 5th really couldn’t be worse than what we put out their last year.

And to be frank I could write a missive that speaks to 12 wins in much the same light - it's a prognostication without any way to know if any of the common variables (injuries, mental approach, tipped balls, wind, rain, etc) are going to go one way or another in a sport literally chock full of such variables.

 

[Boomer B]

O-line depth is a major concern. Very unlikely we’ll get through the whole year with the top 5 healthy. After the starters there is a major drop off.

 

[Brick27]

Predicting more wins by blindly saying “well they should be better than last year” is a fools game when it’s ignoring the other 31 and specifically everyone on their schedule, as well as every nuance of the team itself.