NEW ARTICLE: 2023 Patriots Schedule Prediction: The Road to 12 Wins

[TheRainMaker]

I agree on Rodgers but I think he gets that team into the playoffs. I think he's still got a couple of top caliber seasons left in him. After the way the NFCCG ended against the Bucs in 2020, I also lost complete faith in Rodgers ever winning another Super Bowl. He's a great regular season quarterback though, just like Peyton Manning. I can't see the Patriots sweeping Rodgers and the Jets... probably going to split 1-1.

Should've ended for you in 2014. He had his defense give him 5 turnovers, yet still lost the game.

They have to beat the Dolphins at Gillette, I see it as their best opportunity to get a win in the division.

Yep.

I have no faith in the Patriots beating the Bills.

Bills are slipping though. Their roster is getting worse and they are dead to rights when a team locks down Diggs. I don't see a team running away with a record of 13-4 or 12-5. Someone wins the division at 11-6 at best. All four teams will beat up on each other.

 

[Ian]

@Ian That sucks about WEEI. Look on the bright side, no one heard it.

Unfortunately, a lot of people did. I heard from like four people I hadn't heard from in years who heard it who messaged me, and a couple of my son's friends were like, "Isn't that your dad?" So that was fun.

 

[Ian]

I agree on Rodgers but I think he gets that team into the playoffs. I think he's still got a couple of top caliber seasons left in him. After the way the NFCCG ended against the Bucs in 2020, I also lost complete faith in Rodgers ever winning another Super Bowl. He's a great regular season quarterback though, just like Peyton Manning. I can't see the Patriots sweeping Rodgers and the Jets... probably going to split 1-1.

If they win that first one, I think they'll win the finale.

They have to beat the Dolphins at Gillette, I see it as their best opportunity to get a win in the division. As far as the second meeting, it's going to be all about Tua's availability. Tua was great last season in that offense with superstars Hill and Waddle... and who knows how much of the season he played concussed. A healthy Dolphins offense is going to be hard to slow down. Their defense, which sucked last season, should be better. Ultimately I see another split here.

Again, same story. I think if they can get the first one, if Tua is banged up or if the Dolphins are having issues, a later season meeting down there - provided the Patriots are playing well at that point - is winnable.

I have no faith in the Patriots beating the Bills. Let's get a fair fight first. I have a hard time going from getting dominated to winning a game. 2-0 against the Bills seems like the safest bet with their schedule. 2-4 in the division.

I don't know. If you watch that home game, they got creative in the first quarter with the Marcus Jones play, then couldn't put anything together playcalling wise from there on offense. Then Jones had the pick early in the third that got called back and Patricia got ultra-conservative. I don't think O'Brien will do that. Again, I go back to the Cowboys game in 2021 when Jones through the pick-six and McDaniels came right back on the next play and he threw the touchdown to Bourne. Gotta let the kid move past a mistake and keep playing.

 

[mike_usagisan]

You'll regret putting that in writing. 5-1 in the division? Really?

I know some of you guys take this way more seriously than I do, but I think it's awesome that @Ian did this. I don't come to Patsfans for unbiased takes and holding someone accountable later for a prediction over which way a football game turned out. That's ridiculous. This is a fun take and I hope he's right. And if not, like he wasn't last year, I'll still credit him for being an actual fan of the Pats.

 

[Ian]

I know some of you guys take this way more seriously than I do, but I think it's awesome that @Ian did this. I don't come to Patsfans for unbiased takes and holding someone accountable later for a prediction over which way a football game turned out. That's ridiculous. This is a fun take and I hope he's right. And if not, like he wasn't last year, I'll still credit him for being an actual fan of the Pats.

LOL, so you're saying it wouldn't have been more interesting if I just went:

Week 1: vs Eagles - Nope
Week 2: vs Dolphins - No
Week 3: at Jets - Try Again
Week 4: at Cowboys - Not a chance
Week 5: vs Saints - Still no
Week 6: at Raiders - Seriously?
Week 7: vs Buffalo - Don't even bother
Week 8 : at Miami - Forget it
Week 9: vs Washington - FINALLY! (but probably not)
Week 10: vs Colts (Germany) - They should get this one ... (but probably not)
Week 11: Bye (We've definitely got this!!!)
Week 12: at Giants - Nope
Week 13: vs Chargers - LOL, um... no.
Week 14: at Pittsburgh - I don't think so
Week 15: vs KC - Don't bother showing up
Week 16: at Denver - Really?
Week 17: at Buffalo - Wait ... still no
Week 18: vs Jets - And ... no.

0-16 - Chalk it up. #1 Overall Pick next April.

My mind doesn't work that way. I'd like to think - just like I do during the season - they've got a shot during any given week, and that's just how I approach it. Hopefully, it reads a little better that way

 

[mike_usagisan]

LOL, so you're saying it wouldn't have been more interesting if I just went:

Week 9: vs Washington - FINALLY! (but probably not)

Damn, we can't even beat the Cobra Commanders!?!

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Ah...the silly season between the Draft & Free Agency and Training Camp is in full bloom!
But, it's a good time to make predictions because we can always renege and claim it was "premature" or "I had a bad headache that day." For myself, I'm standing by my "8 W's, 9 if things break right, 6 or 7 if things go south."
Otherwise, the immortal words penned by Robert Bolt in A Man for All Seasons come to mind:
"I wish we could all have good luck, all the time!
"I wish we had wings!
"I wish rainwater was beer! But it isn’t! . . .
"And what with not having wings but walking-on two flat feet; and good luck and bad luck being just exactly even stevens; and rain being water...," we have to accept that our Man for All Seasons will be in the Krafts' box on opening day, not between the lines, starting a run to12 or more W's and another SB.

 

[crawhammer]

I know some of you guys take this way more seriously than I do, but I think it's awesome that @Ian did this. I don't come to Patsfans for unbiased takes and holding someone accountable later for a prediction over which way a football game turned out. That's ridiculous. This is a fun take and I hope he's right. And if not, like he wasn't last year, I'll still credit him for being an actual fan of the Pats.

Actual fans can be skeptical too. @Ian is giving the highly optimistic view. The you'll regret it comment was tongue-in-cheek. I get it's for fun, that's sort of the point in all of this, right. Predictions at this point for the season are obviously tricky but I feel pretty confident in who I think the Patriots are (or are not as in a non-playoff team). I have more questions about the other three teams in the division, but at their optimum level, each has a higher ceiling than the Patriots. I think the Patriots will need all three to fall short of expectations for them to contend for the division and the chances of that are slim.

 

[Dingleberry]

I am a big fan of fantasy writing, so I enjoyed the article. 12-5? Pffft, ya ok. But it was fun playing the what-if game for a few minutes.


Back to reality.

I have the Patriots at 11-6 this season.

 

[Brotherblues]

12 wins is the floor

 

[mike_usagisan]

Actual fans can be skeptical too. @Ian is giving the highly optimistic view. The you'll regret it comment was tongue-in-cheek. I get it's for fun, that's sort of the point in all of this, right. Predictions at this point for the season are obviously tricky but I feel pretty confident in who I think the Patriots are (or are not as in a non-playoff team). I have more questions about the other three teams in the division, but at their optimum level, each has a higher ceiling than the Patriots. I think the Patriots will need all three to fall short of expectations for them to contend for the division and the chances of that are slim.

Ah, cool. It can be heard to hear tone on these posts. I didn't think you were ripping him, but wasn't completely sure. And I wasn't trying to imply that anyone wasn't an actual fan, I was trying to do a word play on Patsfans/fan of the Pats.

Oh, absolutely Ian is taking the optimistic viewpoint. But I'm on Patsfans, not some other place where I expect an unbiased prediction. I'd rather come here and be optimistic about my team, especially this early in the offseason. And I know other people take different views of predictions, and the differences of opinions are good when they're talking and not yelling at each other. But, for me, if I had to come here and only hear what they think are going to be accurate predictions based upon how last season went, I wouldn't come here.

 

[borg]

2023 Patriots Schedule Prediction: The Road to 12 Wins
Ian Logue

Sometimes less is more.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Projection by narrative! I can't say it's any more or less effective at finding the sequence of future events thank a bucket of stats and Cynthia Frelund's fine statistical analysis. from your keyboard to God's monitor.

 

[Ian]

Projection by narrative! I can't say it's any more or less effective at finding the sequence of future events thank a bucket of stats and Cynthia Frelund's fine statistical analysis. from your keyboard to God's monitor.

Again, look at it collectively vs trying to imagine it week by week - they’re two different things. I’m obviously skeptical like most people, but when you start going through week by week and thinking about how some previous scenarios have gone, how even last season, they were in contention, it’s funny how it starts to go.

I had them at one point with a shot at a top seed before falling apart over the final couple of weeks (if you read it, you probably saw that). Not because I planned it that way, but I just sort of started writing it and let it go from there and that’s how it went.

Even if you’re skeptical, start going through each week taking various things into consideration (based not just on how you feel or your hatred for coaches, players, but also what you’ve seen from this team in the past) and see how it plays out.

There could be some people who end up with more wins than they thought, or there could be some who end up with less. But either way, when you just go one week at a time vs a broad look, it definitely changes how you view it.

And it’s obviously May…and I took best case scenarios because planning for the worst doesn’t make it a very fun exercise. Obviously, if Bill O’Brien doesn’t make the impact we’re all hoping, we’re in big trouble.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Again, look at it collectively vs trying to imagine it week by week - they’re two different things. I’m obviously skeptical like most people, but when you start going through week by week and thinking about how some previous scenarios have gone, how even last season, they were in contention, it’s funny how it starts to go.

I had them at one point with a shot at a top seed before falling apart over the final couple of weeks (if you read it, you probably saw that). Not because I planned it that way, but I just sort of started writing it and let it go from there and that’s how it went.

Even if you’re skeptical, start going through each week taking various things into consideration (based not just on how you feel or your hatred for coaches, players, but also what you’ve seen from this team in the past) and see how it plays out.

There could be some people who end up with more wins than they thought, or there could be some who end up with less. But either way, when you just go one week at a time vs a broad look, it definitely changes how you view it.

And it’s obviously May…and I took best case scenarios because planning for the worst doesn’t make it a very fun exercise. Obviously, if Bill O’Brien doesn’t make the impact we’re all hoping, we’re in big trouble.

Ian, I've read some, and I am so rooting for this to be right, down to every detail, and for you to be able to go on air with your naysayers and rub the article in their faces, Babe-Ruth-calling-his-shot style. I mean. no particular logic sounds unsound. I want BOB to turn our wideouts into something wonderful too -- like I said elsewhere, I am skeptical but at the same time I see these green shoots when I think about our receivers and Mac. BUT, I don't think we make our bones on offense this year. We're not a get-out-of-our-way team. we're a potential win-by-refusing-to-lose team.

So not to get all cold and numbery but I think by telling the plausible story you take these leaps that in each case are believable. This is why telling future history stories is so hard to do. Make a call that might be 80% likely, and you're in pretty good shape. Needing for two to come true just puts you at 64%, but add a third and suddenly you're barely at a 50-50 proposition.

So I think it's a lot of good plausible thoughts that you should be celebrated like Nostradamus if everything works out this way -- or even enough to be recognizable all the way down the road next winter.

I'm going back to finish the read, because the "future story" is a good, interesting way to go about it.

 

[Immortan Joe]

LOL, so you're saying it wouldn't have been more interesting if I just went:

Week 1: vs Eagles - Nope
Week 2: vs Dolphins - No
Week 3: at Jets - Try Again
Week 4: at Cowboys - Not a chance
Week 5: vs Saints - Still no
Week 6: at Raiders - Seriously?
Week 7: vs Buffalo - Don't even bother
Week 8 : at Miami - Forget it
Week 9: vs Washington - FINALLY! (but probably not)
Week 10: vs Colts (Germany) - They should get this one ... (but probably not)
Week 11: Bye (We've definitely got this!!!)
Week 12: at Giants - Nope
Week 13: vs Chargers - LOL, um... no.
Week 14: at Pittsburgh - I don't think so
Week 15: vs KC - Don't bother showing up
Week 16: at Denver - Really?
Week 17: at Buffalo - Wait ... still no
Week 18: vs Jets - And ... no.

0-16 - Chalk it up. #1 Overall Pick next April.

My mind doesn't work that way. I'd like to think - just like I do during the season - they've got a shot during any given week, and that's just how I approach it. Hopefully, it reads a little better that way

Week 1: vs Eagles - L
Week 2: vs Dolphins - W
Week 3: at Jets - W
Week 4: at Cowboys - W
Week 5: vs Saints - W
Week 6: at Raiders - W
Week 7: vs Buffalo - L
Week 8 : at Miami - L
Week 9: vs Washington - W
Week 10: vs Colts (Germany) - W
Week 11: Bye
Week 12: at Giants - W
Week 13: vs Chargers -W
Week 14: at Pittsburgh - W
Week 15: vs KC - L
Week 16: at Denver - W
Week 17: at Buffalo - L
Week 18: vs Jets- L

I think 10-12 is possible, going with 11. I think BoB is going to have a big impact and I like the depth/potential on O. Expecting a top 5 (predicting 2nd) defense this year. 11 is a stretch with the strength of the schedule but we'll see.

 

[mgteich]

Week 1: vs Eagles - L
Week 2: vs Dolphins - W
Week 3: at Jets - W
Week 4: at Cowboys - W
Week 5: vs Saints - W
Week 6: at Raiders - W
Week 7: vs Buffalo - L
Week 8 : at Miami - L
Week 9: vs Washington - W
Week 10: vs Colts (Germany) - W
Week 11: Bye
Week 12: at Giants - W
Week 13: vs Chargers -W
Week 14: at Pittsburgh - W
Week 15: vs KC - L
Week 16: at Denver - W
Week 17: at Buffalo - L
Week 18: vs Jets- L

I think 10-12 is possible, going with 11. I think BoB is going to have a big impact and I like the depth/potential on O. Expecting a top 5 (predicting 2nd) defense this year. 11 is a stretch with the strength of the schedule but we'll see.

I note that take a 5-1 start. Usually, a new offense takes time to gel. On the other hand, the last game is against the jets, and you have it as a loss. If we need the game to get into the playoffs, I would expect us to win it.

 

[50-yard-line]

It's weird, because I'm very optimistic about this team going forward, but way more pessimistic about this upcoming season (Bills desperation run/Miami ALL-IN/JETE QB injection.

Best (deepest) divisions in the NFL right now might be the NFC East, AFC East, and AFC West and the Pats are playing 14 games against those divisions. The 15th game is against a much-improving Steelers team, a 16th in Germany. Honestly, the only "gimme" is the Colts...and last year's "gimme" blew out the Pats at home.

Could be a very long year - but wait 'til next year!

I'm really just watching to see how their core develops this year. Hoping a LOT of the draftees make the team and play (including the WRs). It's a process.

 

[archstanton543]

It's weird, because I'm very optimistic about this team going forward, but way more pessimistic about this upcoming season (Bills desperation run/Miami ALL-IN/JETE QB injection, only 7 real home games.

Best (deepest) divisions in the NFL right now might be the NFC East, AFC East, and AFC West and the Pats are playing 14 games against those divisions. The 15th game is against a much-improving Steelers team, a 16th in Germany. Honestly, the only "gimme" is the Colts...and last year's "gimme" blew out the Pats at home.

Could be a very long year - but wait 'til next year!

I'm really just watching to see how their core develops this year. Hoping a LOT of the draftees make the team and play (including the WRs). It's a process.

The Commanders are a gimmie. The Colts aren't because of the long road trip.

 

[captain stone]

They catch one or two divisional teams in a "weather" game or Tua is injured and go 2-4 at best. This roster is pretty bad. This is a 7 win team.

Yep; this roster + this schedule = 8-9, tops.