Does Belichick Last Beyond 2023, and What Needs to Happen?

[Vindicate]

Can't get away with not having a top wideout when you have a young QB. With Brady, it was a luxury. With Mac - or any other young quarterback - it's a necessity. Plus, it makes the other guys around him better.

Folks often focus on how much a #1 WR helps a QB - which is totally fair and true. However, it's majorly because of the bolded portion. A true #1 suddenly forces your excellent #2, who has been playing ostensibly as a #1 but struggling, down the coverage chain. It's there that your #2 will thrive.

You go from: Ostensible, barely average #1 WR

To: True #1 WR, Above average #2 WR, etc.

I feel like Amendola is a perfect example of this. You can't put the Amendola vs a #1 CB and expect him to produce. But the further down the coverage chain, he gets exponentially more useful. This contributes to raising a clutch factor as well.

It also completely changes coverage schemes and makes life easier on your O-line so coverage sacks aren't as much of a threat.

Mac has a hard ceiling I feel. It's not a low ceiling, but it seems very hard. Which is ok - if you build a team around that idea.

 

[venecol]

Then why bother? I mean, you say that now, but you're not the slightest bit curious about the offseason, changes in staff, player acquisitions with a ton of cap space, etc? Especially with the pressure now really on him? Based on what you're saying, we should all just go get ready for the Red Sox, watch some hockey, basketball, etc. and ignore the whole team and process until we hear the headline that Bill has been fired?

Again, I get you're not happy with him, but you're basically saying to get rid of him now, which we all know isn't happening. That's why I locked two threads and am trying to at least get us talking about changes that are at least somewhat realistic with an eye toward the future.

I'm more curious about what the plan is moving forward with Belichick. What do people think is going to happen with the team?

So, Bill coaches until he dies because we can't let go of the past, I get that. Then what?

Let's say Bill gets the team to #2 in the division 3 years in a row, makes the playoffs, goes 1-3 during those years (lofty goals given recent record). Nothing much changes because we stick w/ Bill's way: we still have a bunch of players that only work in his system, little elite talent, Mac at QB w/ a 28-23 season record.

Now Bill is dead. We need to find a new GM and a new HC. First the GM, I assume, so he can pick his HC. This new team comes in, looks at all the jags, the mediocre record and does what? Continue the Patriots Way (2020s version)? Do they blow it all up and start from scratch? Add another 3-4 years for a rebuild.

Let's see: 3 yrs so far + 3 yrs till BB dies + 3-4 more = 10 years before we win the division assuming all goes well during the latest rebuild.

But at least we can all say F*ck You Shula. Solid plan.

 

[Ian]

It had been 13 seasons since they made the postseason. It had been 18 seasons since they won a playoff game. It had been 10 seasons since they'd won more than 9 games. It had been 10 seasons since they'd won their division. They'd never won back-to-back division titles.

Brady's 3 seasons (so far) in Tampa Bay:
2 division titles (back-to-back)
2 double digit win seasons (back-to-back)
5-1 postseason record
1 Super Bowl Championship

Brady turned that franchise around in one season.

You have to admit, the roster was stacked. With a smart, disciplined veteran, and a guy people wanted to play with, including a future Hall of Fame TE who came back to join him, they were set up to win, and he got it done. Good for him. And Arians wasn't a genius, but he was good enough and despite butting heads, they worked well enough to go all the way.

But that was the perfect situation, and he even admitted it. I don't know what other team had a roster like that where it would have necessarily gone that way. Right place, right time.

 

[TheRainMaker]

Wynn should have been the replacement for Solder and then went he went down Bill swung a good trade for Brown only for the next year to have to go to Marshall Newhouse to protect Brady's blindside and it was mess and Wynn hasn't been any real prize either.

Brown was traded for draft weekend in 2018.

Similar issue with Harry. Harry was drafted to be a number one and it was apparent pretty quickly that he wasn't that guy so Bill threw $9 mill at Antonio Brown for one game and then a desperate trade for Sanu.

Harry was injured early and there was an opportunity to get Brown. We would've been pissed if Bill passed that up. We all knew he was nuts, but not that nuts. The Sanu trade was amateur hour.

 

[crawhammer]

You have to admit, the roster was stacked. With a smart, disciplined veteran, and a guy people wanted to play with, including a future Hall of Fame TE who came back to join him, they were set up to win, and he got it done. Good for him. And Arians wasn't a genius, but he was good enough and despite butting heads, they worked well enough to go all the way.

But that was the perfect situation, and he even admitted it. I don't know what other team had a roster like that where it would have necessarily gone that way. Right place, right time.

Sounds like you're saying he got lucky. I see it the other way around... Tampa Bay was lucky to get Brady who made it all come together.

 

[PatsFan2]

Who knows? He has shown enough that with everything right around him, he can play really well. See the first half of the Bills' game. With the Raiders' receivers and McDaniels, who knows what his ceiling is.

Stidham looked way better even in preseason.

 

[Ian]

I'm more curious about what the plan is moving forward with Belichick. What do people think is going to happen with the team?

I'm going to ignore the "Bill is dead" thing because you're just being dramatic. Again, it's a league where the results are what matters. If he turns it around and they become a contender, then it's not an issue of holding onto the past. They're winning, and I don't recall Bill's age being a factor when they won a title five years ago and he was in his late 60s.

However, it will be an issue of likely setting up a succession plan and having a foundation since even Kraft knows Bill likely won't be here beyond a season or two. To me, that's also an important thing, and right now, after Bill, there isn't anyone and having gone from Parcells to Pete Carroll, who if you recall, was also fairly well respected at the time, the future frightens me because I know what can happen. We lucked out and only really dealt with a few years at the end and Bill's first year where things were bad. Then we had 20-straight of incredible dominance.

I don't think we're getting that lucky again

 

[Ian]

Sounds like you're saying he got lucky. I see it the other way around... Tampa Bay was lucky to get Brady who made it all come together.

Works both ways. If it didn't work out, he would have taken the blame for it. Pretty sure you of all people should know people - and the media - love to pile on when times are tough. They don't say much when things are good

 

[Ian]

A team that's a QB away from contention is a lot closer to a Super Bowl title than a team that's a head coach away.

That's true, but really good coaches can win with a really good roster. We saw Gruden do it back in the day, and there have been others. The key thing now is it's up to Bill to obviously put a better one together and also surround himself with more talent-wise within the coaching ranks. I think the latter was a big weakness this season, and after the "brain drain" McDaniels dealt us last offseason, I really hope that gets replenished a bit.

 

[archstanton543]

I'm going to ignore the "Bill is dead" thing because you're just being dramatic. Again, it's a league where the results are what matters. If he turns it around and they become a contender, then it's not an issue of holding onto the past. They're winning, and I don't recall Bill's age being a factor when they won a title five years ago and he was in his late 60s.

There's a lot of changes that happen to someone between late-60's and 70's. My grandfather could drive when he was in his late-60's. Could not in his 70's.

People lose their fastball when they're that old. It happens. It will happen to all of us with any luck.

 

[archstanton543]

That's true, but really good coaches can win with a really good roster. We saw Gruden do it back in the day, and there have been others. The key thing now is it's up to Bill to obviously put a better one together and also surround himself with more talent-wise within the coaching ranks. I think the latter was a big weakness this season, and after the "brain drain" McDaniels dealt us last offseason, I really hope that gets replenished a bit.

But how old was Gruden when he did that? Age does play a factor.

 

[Ian]

There's a lot of changes that happen to someone between late-60's and 70's. My grandfather could drive when he was in his late-60's. Could not in his 70's.

People lose their fastball when they're that old. It happens. It will happen to all of us with any luck.

I agree. Although it's funny to listen to him during press conferences. He'll still talk about guys at the bottom of the roster, still knows all their names, tendencies, etc. I go back to that press conference where Jeff Fisher talked about guys who hadn't been on the team for multiple years and he was younger. That's also why I definitely think he needs to get better people around him so he can delegate better. I think he was spread pretty thin last season.

 

[203Pat]

A team that's a QB away from contention is a lot closer to a Super Bowl title than a team that's a head coach away.

At 71+ do you think BB has the energy and drive to install his system on a new team and get those players to buy in after 1 season or even 2? BB isn't going anywhere and even if he did, he's not winning a Super Bowl right away with another team. The 2000-2001 seasons were unique in that a lot of the team was still intact from the time he was on the coaching staff earlier and it still took him a year with a losing record to win the next year.

That is why I think he will need to make a concession and move Patricia but I think if he had his way he wouldn't make any changes and that makes me concerned Bill might be working with an OC who he doesn't really want. There were already issues with the coaching staff last year and Mac the last thing we need is for any more infighting.

Don't forget, part of the reason is he was blindsided by the Brady move (even though most people saw that potentially coming) and the timeline of how that played out didn't help. They also had a lot of money handcuffing them because they didn't extend him and opted to go year to year, so they really had no money to spend and his deal came to a head. The only positive was that they only suffered a season and were able to get him off the books. The key question now is whether or not the 7-9 season that got them Mac will end up working out. If not, have to hope for Zappe. If not, then we could be looking at the wheel of veteran retreads until the next "guy" falls into our laps.

That's the issue is that all Bill's problems were of his own making. I am not saying he should have given a 42 year old QB a 5 year deal in 2019 but the kicking the can on Brady's contract didn't help. Bill bungled the roster around Brady so badly he basically backed himself into a corner. From what Bedard says the meeting with Bill and Kraft was either yesterday or today so I am hoping we hear some news on the offensive side of the ball sooner rather than later. It might not (and likely won't) be an official team press release but Bill has enough links to people in the media it can leak out without any official word. I don't know if Mac is the guy and if you put a gun to my head I would say no but Bill wasted an entire season of Mac's development and we are no better off now than we were at the end of 2021 (and maybe even worse off).

 

[Ian]

But how old was Gruden when he did that? Age does play a factor.

That was what, the 2000 season? Obviously, he was quite a bit younger. Although I wonder if he had anyone of note on his staff. Never really looked at his coaching tree...sort of an interesting thing to look at there.

 

[203Pat]

Brown was traded for draft weekend in 2018.

Harry was injured early and there was an opportunity to get Brown. We would've been pissed if Bill passed that up. We all knew he was nuts, but not that nuts. The Sanu trade was amateur hour.

I think I worded that poorly but that trade was a low risk high reward trade and it worked out. What didn't work out was relying on Wynn with no swing tackle that could play. I think a lot of people were on the fence about bringing Brown in but I won't lie I was happy we took a shot on him but it ended up being a disaster. Only thing worse was the Sanu deal.

 

[sb1]

That was what, the 2000 season? Obviously, he was quite a bit younger. Although I wonder if he had anyone of note on his staff. Never really looked at his coaching tree...sort of an interesting thing to look at there.

I think there's a connection between Gruden and McVay but not sure what McVay's role was working for him.

 

[Rob0729]

Stidham looked way better even in preseason.

We get it already. You hate Mac Jones.

 

[Ian]

That's the issue is that all Bill's problems were of his own making. I am not saying he should have given a 42 year old QB a 5 year deal in 2019 but the kicking the can on Brady's contract didn't help.

Should have kept kicking the can until he proved he couldn't do it anymore. The guy never gave him a reason to believe he couldn't do it, so while it would've still caught up to them when the end did come financially, keeping him made sense. At the same time, they had money tied up in other guys they probably shouldn't have paid, but it is what it is.

Bill bungled the roster around Brady so badly he basically backed himself into a corner. From what Bedard says the meeting with Bill and Kraft was either yesterday or today so I am hoping we hear some news on the offensive side of the ball sooner rather than later. It might not (and likely won't) be an official team press release but Bill has enough links to people in the media it can leak out without any official word. I don't know if Mac is the guy and if you put a gun to my head I would say no but Bill wasted an entire season of Mac's development and we are no better off now than we were at the end of 2021 (and maybe even worse off).

That's sort of the worst part. Didn't really learn much because it was so inconsistent. Last year, things made sense, this year, not so much. The one thing we learned is that they have a viable young back-up and they can at least move on from Hoyer and potentially draft another player while feeling comfortable that Zappe can start in a pinch. Maybe he competes in camp, who knows. Either way, like you said, we didn't learn much else.

 

[h0c2000]

Don't forget, part of the reason is he was blindsided by the Brady move (even though most people saw that potentially coming) and the timeline of how that played out didn't help. They also had a lot of money handcuffing them because they didn't extend him and opted to go year to year, so they really had no money to spend and his deal came to a head. The only positive was that they only suffered a season and were able to get him off the books. The key question now is whether or not the 7-9 season that got them Mac will end up working out. If not, have to hope for Zappe. If not, then we could be looking at the wheel of veteran retreads until the next "guy" falls into our laps.

If Bill was blindsided by TB12 leaving, he failed as a GM at the single most important position on the field. He should have let him walk in 2019 instead of giving him his walking papers in that last contract.

Bill didn't want him back otherwise he would have given him the money Tom wanted. The money wasn't outrageous either. Patriots coaching staff said they could win with any top 15 QB because of the system in2018. Bill felt he didn't need an aging QB at that amount of money. 27th in cash out the last 3 years...

Bill playing fantasy football with his offensive staff, may or may not have had an impact on Mac's 2nd year development. For that, he gets another F. Who knows what we'll get next year if Bill even wants him. "“Mac has the ability to play quarterback in this league,” isn't exactly a ringing endorsement when asked if Mac's the starter going forward. Zappe is an unknown. Hoyer needs to retire or be cut.

 

[Ian]

We get it already. You hate Mac Jones.

Does he? I haven't ever heard him say that.