Does Belichick Last Beyond 2023, and What Needs to Happen?

[Ian]

I think you could nitpick any team's results from every season. The Patriots very well would have lost to the Cardinals had Murray not blown out his knee on the third play of the game. Tua probably has the Dolphins scoring in the mid-to-high 20's which would have been enough to win that game. The Patriots were that close to an 0-7 finish. Just like had they not made game-crippling mistakes in those 3 losses then they could have won them. Problem is they made those mistakes.

Tampa Bay won 3 games on scores with 9 seconds or less left in the game. If not for those dramatic last second comebacks, they could have finished an embarrassing 5-12 and missed the postseason. They also were a 2-point conversion away from tying two other games late. Could have won those games and finished a more respectable 10-7. But they failed on the 2-point conversions so they lost.

Etc.

You lose games you could have won and you win games you could have lost. But for the most part it evens out and you generally are what your record says you are.

One counterexample to this is the Vikings. Their 4 losses they lost by an average of 22 points per game. Their 1st and 13th wins they won by an average of 16 points. Wins 2-12 (11 games) were all one-score games that they won by an average of 4 points per game. 8 of those 11 wins were 4th quarter comebacks. Here's a team who had pretty much everything go their way which drove their record up by probably a handful of wins. Which is unusual.

My point is they were in every game and could have won a fair number of them. Bad coaching results in double-digit losses where during the game, there was never any shot at winning them. We're fortunate that isn't the case here, which I feel like some people are overlooking, yourself included.

 

[venecol]

Belichick makes his seat warm because of his incredibly high salary. You can't be paid like Belichick is and not produce, even Kraft as a businessman is not going to be ok forking over $25m/year for BB for losing seasons

Belichick is also 71 and nearing the end, so Kraft would also factor that into any decisions he would make. Its not like BB is in his 50s, in which case I would agree with you

The calculus for this team has changed dramatically over the last couple years

Yea, I don't get how people don't understand this is a business. When you have 90% calling for Patricia's head, >50% dissatisfied w/ Mac, and >35% that want Bill fired, Kraft has to recalibrate his business decisions.

I'm honestly intrigued to see what he does given his statements in March.

 

[PWRxWLF]

The only thing we know for certain is that Bill will be back in 23. I’m happy about that. I like Bill. Great coach. Great historian of the game and an important figure in the league. As for changes happening….I’ll believe it when I see it. The problems with this team was evident within the first few months, and yet nothing was dramatically changed. Which blows my mind. The miscalculation of every decision made this season was very uncharacteristic of Bill. Meh, they’re rebuilding, right? These things happen. I just think that most of the disappointment and anger is from the team dramatically regressing and not moving forward. I for one, just wanted to see improvement. Give me something to be excited about the future. Instead, I’m now bummed out and having a hard time getting excited about anything until some coaching changes start popping off.

 

[crawhammer]

Hoping this is satire. Not funny.

It's both. Which does complicate it. Patricia is terrible and no doubt needs to be replaced but for Bill it's his buddy and his plan which he's being expected to completely scrap after one season. That's not Bill's style. And Mac has been struggling all the way back into last season (since week 12) when he had a highly competent OC. Both Patricia and Mac are the problem. Probably can't change the quarterback unless you open up a competition in camp and Zappe wins out. Or bring in a veteran QB and trade Mac. Both of those scenarios are seemingly unlikely. It's more practical to bring in a new OC but it's probably against Bill's instinct (as he really values surrounding himself with "his guys").

 

[Kontradiction]

My point is they were in every game and could have won a fair number of them. Bad coaching results in double-digit losses where during the game, there was never any shot at winning them. We're fortunate that isn't the case here, which I feel like some people are overlooking, yourself included.

Ehhhh… bad coaching also results in the team being in every game, and yet losing more than half of them, too. BB himself has even said that players win games and coaches can only lose them. This team had a whole host of issues this year. Coaching was most certainly one of them.

 

[RobertWeathers]

It's both. Which does complicate it. Patricia is terrible and no doubt needs to be replaced but for Bill it's his buddy and his plan which he's being expected to completely scrap after one season. That's not Bill's style. And Mac has been struggling all the way back into last season (since week 12) when he had a highly competent OC. Both Patricia and Mac are the problem. Probably can't change the quarterback unless you open up a competition in camp and Zappe wins out. Or bring in a veteran QB and trade Mac. Both of those scenarios are seemingly unlikely. It's more practical to bring in a new OC but it's probably against Bill's instinct (as he really values surrounding himself with "his guys").

If BB thinks Mac's sub-par year is all on him and Fat Matt craps Tiffany cufflinks then the NEP are worse off than I ever imagined with BB has HC.

 

[Ian]

Ehhhh… bad coaching also results in the team being in every game, and yet losing more than half of them, too. BB himself has even said that players win games and coaches can only lose them. This team had a whole host of issues this year. Coaching was most certainly one of them.

I don't disagree. But the fact they were at least in it and had a shot is something that I think gets forgotten by the people who want Bill gone. Do they need to fix issues with the staff? Absolutely. But thinking things will improve if Bill wasn't here anymore, I think is one of those "be careful what you wish for" situations that people are underestimating.

 

[Ian]

It's both. Which does complicate it. Patricia is terrible and no doubt needs to be replaced but for Bill it's his buddy and his plan which he's being expected to completely scrap after one season. That's not Bill's style. And Mac has been struggling all the way back into last season (since week 12) when he had a highly competent OC.

Not true. He finished better this season than he did last season. You need to let that go.

 

[upstater1]

Yea, I don't get how people don't understand this is a business. When you have 90% calling for Patricia's head, >50% dissatisfied w/ Mac, and >35% that want Bill fired, Kraft has to recalibrate his business decisions.

I'm honestly intrigued to see what he does given his statements in March.

Kraft can be as dissatisfied as he wants. The question is what is his alternative?

No one is celebrating 8-9.

So fine, fire the guy and then let's go on the coaching merry-go-round.

In places like Dallas and Baltimore, they are sticking it out.

 

[crawhammer]

Obviously, I'm not. But the regular season is what it is, you have no control over that. I'm not a fan of all the pundits using that argument against us about the regular season, the AFC East, etc., which is why I'm not a fan of us doing it in here, either. No one was complaining when we were racking up wins, getting a top seed, and then tearing it up during the postseason.

At the end of the day, it comes back to the fact there are people like yourself who are mad Brady's gone. Many of us are, myself included. But spending anymore time complaining about it isn't going to bring him back. It is what it is.

I was mad about Brady leaving (and my understanding of how it came about) but it ultimately worked out greatly in his favor. He has significantly padded his legacy in Tampa Bay to heights he couldn't have achieved by remaining in a Patriots uniform.

 

[Kontradiction]

I don't disagree. But the fact they were at least in it and had a shot is something that I think gets forgotten by the people who want Bill gone. Do they need to fix issues with the staff? Absolutely. But thinking things will improve if Bill wasn't here anymore, I think is one of those "be careful what you wish for" situations that people are underestimating.

I don’t want Bill gone, personally. But I don’t think the leash should be longer than this year. If the team gets into the playoffs in the ‘23 season and wins a game, then we’re back in business and all of this worry is for naught. But making Patricia the offensive play caller for a QB in year two was a colossal mistake to begin with. That mistake eventually compounded with a leaky pass protection resulting in the offense you saw this year. Yes, the team was just mediocre enough to be in every game. Yes, coaching is a very big reason why they lost 9 of them and missed the playoffs.

 

[Ian]

I was mad about Brady leaving (and my understanding of how it came about) but it ultimately worked out greatly in his favor. He has significantly padded his legacy in Tampa Bay to heights he couldn't have achieved by remaining in a Patriots uniform.

Great. So quit complaining about their QB not being up to Brady's standards and let it go. It'll do your blood pressure some good

 

[Ian]

I don’t want Bill gone, personally. But I don’t think the leash should be longer than this year. If the team gets into the playoffs in the ‘23 season and wins a game, then we’re back in business and all of this worry is for naught. But making Patricia the offensive play caller for a QB in year two was a colossal mistake to begin with. That mistake eventually compounded with a leaky pass protection resulting in the offense you saw this year. Yes, the team was just mediocre enough to be in every game. Yes, coaching is a very big reason why they lost 9 of them and missed the playoffs.

I agree. Improvements to the staff need to be made and I think the better move would have been to elevate Caley and bring in other people with experience to support him. Also hate Patricia as an O-Line coach. Definitely think he should have scoured even the college ranks and done some more due diligence there.

 

[crawhammer]

My point is they were in every game and could have won a fair number of them. Bad coaching results in double-digit losses where during the game, there was never any shot at winning them. We're fortunate that isn't the case here, which I feel like some people are overlooking, yourself included.

Bad coaching didn't impact the Raiders game? Why the hell were they even running a play on that last down? Completely stupid. If you're going to run up the middle then just kneel down and head into OT. The coaching staff blew that one bigtime.

 

[Steve102]

Do they need to fix issues with the staff? Absolutely. But thinking things will improve if Bill wasn't here anymore, I think is one of those "be careful what you wish for" situations that people are underestimating.

100% this. You are guaranteed the next guy will not have Bill's football knowledge base or his IQ. This is not opinion, this is fact. There's no one in the NFL with Bill's resume or experience.

Yea, I don't get how people don't understand this is a business. When you have 90% calling for Patricia's head, >50% dissatisfied w/ Mac, and >35% that want Bill fired, Kraft has to recalibrate his business decisions.

I'm honestly intrigued to see what he does given his statements in March.

Do you think that Kraft is going to run his business based on the internet calling for Patricia's head?

 

[Ian]

Bad coaching didn't impact the Raiders game? Why the hell were they even running a play on that last down? Completely stupid. If you're going to run up the middle then just kneel down and head into OT. The coaching staff blew that one bigtime.

I think they thought Stevenson might break off a big gain and even take it all the way on the play they called. I don't think they expected him to lateral. That seemed to be the sentiment within the media based on things multiple reporters said.

 

[Kontradiction]

Kraft can be as dissatisfied as he wants. The question is what is his alternative?

No one is celebrating 8-9.

So fine, fire the guy and then let's go on the coaching merry-go-round.

In places like Dallas and Baltimore, they are sticking it out.

What is the alternative to a coach who will be 71 at the start of the 2023 season, and has been a career mediocrity as a HC until he caught lightning in a bottle back in 2000? People need to stop asking this question and, instead, focus on what Bill is going to do for the team in 2023.

 

[Ian]

Kraft can be as dissatisfied as he wants. The question is what is his alternative?

No one is celebrating 8-9.

So fine, fire the guy and then let's go on the coaching merry-go-round.

In places like Dallas and Baltimore, they are sticking it out.

It's coming sooner than people think as it is, people shouldn't be in a hurry for it to get here any sooner. I would instead wait and see how they approach free agency, the coaching staff, etc. If that all turns out to be a failure, then the discussion begins to become valid. But this year isn't going to be like the last couple. He's absolutely under pressure heading into 2023. I'd sit back and watch how it goes first.

 

[RobertWeathers]

What is the alternative to a coach who will be 71 at the start of the 2023 season, and has been a career mediocrity as a HC until he caught lightning in a bottle back in 2000? People need to stop asking this question and, instead, focus on what Bill is going to do for the team in 2023.

In the interest of being comprehensive, there is a part of me that wants Orchids and Jonathan to chat with McVay.

 

[crawhammer]

Not true. He finished better this season than he did last season. You need to let that go.

My main point was Mac struggled last season with McDaniels. The last 5 games (1-4) he had 8 TDs and 7 INTs. That includes his best start of the season against Jacksonville. You think Mac played well in any of those 4 losses (combined 5 TDs and 7 INTs)?

Did Mac finish better this season? I suppose. The record wasn't any better. 3 picks in the second half of week 18. And I'm not sure what you're getting at here? If you're saying he improved by the end of this season then couldn't you also say he, the offense generally, and Patricia started to click? Couldn't Bill potentially point to this (false) argument as a reason for retaining Patricia?