Does Belichick Last Beyond 2023, and What Needs to Happen?

[Ring 6]

When did he follow it?

When did he have reason to follow it?
You said he balked at it. That’s a lie. If you aren’t filling a Rooney rule position then you would not have opportunity to follow it.

 

[Tunescribe]

Between 2001-2019, the NEP went 17-2 in division wins, never losing the division 2 years in a row.

From 2020-2022 they are 0 for 3 in division wins. Do we think this team wins the division in 2023 or will it be 4 in a row?

Between 2001-2018, the NEP went 3 seasons w/o winning a playoff game, 2 of those were in a row (2008-09).

From 2019-2022 they are 0-4 in playoff wins (missing playoffs in 2 out of 4 seasons). Do we think this team wins a playoff game in 2023? Maybe. Or will it be 5 years in a row w/o a win? Will Kraft still be happy?

The only constant is Belichick. It's still his system. He still buys the groceries. Same playbook they've used for 20 years. What changed? Did he just lose his fastball or is something else missing?

"What changed," you ask? Matt Patricia/Joe Judge playing Keystone Kops with the offense is what changed.

Do you honestly think because Hunter Henry said "it's the same playbook" that it REALLY was the same offensive system in 2022 that existed under Josh McDaniels? It wasn't. "Same playbook" means nothing. Perhaps they brought forward "plays" from "the playbook," but blocking schemes were different, terminology changed, play calling suffered, formations went haywire, LOS blocking protection/receiver route/play audibles were limited severely in 2022, passing game timing and receiver route spacing became problematic -- all with essentially the same offensive personnel as 2021.

The below 2022 offensive rankings are pathetic compared to 2021. The Patriots had 31 offensive touchdowns this season (19 passing/12 rushing) vs. 48 offensive touchdowns in 2021 (24 passing/24 rushing). That is a difference of SEVENTEEN TOUCHDOWNS, or one per game!

The Patriots offense ranked sixth in 2021, 17th in 2022. Total offensive yards dropped from 6,008 in 2021 to 5,348 in 2022. Offensive penalties increased from 95 in 2021 to 104 in 2022. First downs dropped from 326 in 2021 to 264 in 2022. On down the line, in every category, the offense took a huge step back under an offensive coordinator with no prior experience running an offense and a quarterbacks coach with no experience in that role.

Only the blind and willingly ignorant would try pinning the Patriots' 2022 offensive regression chiefly on player personnel.

Here's where Patriots ranked in every offensive category in 2022 in the NFL

Here's a look at where the Patriots ranked in just about every offensive category you can use to assess the potency or lack thereof from an offense.

www.cbsnews.com

Yards per game: 26th, 314.6
Rush yards/game: 24th, 106.6
Rush yards/play: 21st, 4.24
Pass yards/game: 20th, 206.4
Pass yards/play: 15th, 6.60
First downs/game: 28th, 16.9
Points per game*: 17th, 21.4
Pass touchdowns: tied-19th, 19
Rush touchdowns: tied-22nd, 12
Passer rating: 17th, 87.7
Third down: 27th, 34.88%
Fourth down: 29th, 38.46%
Red zone: 32nd, 42.22%
Goal to go: 28th, 62.50%
Average time of possession: 28th, 28:54
Average plays per drive: 29th
Average yards per drive: 27th
Average points per drive: 25th
Percentage of drives ending in score: 25th

The overall scoring rank looks fine, but that number was boosted in a major way by eight non-offensive touchdowns (five INT returns, two fumble returns, one punt return). Those eight non-offensive touchdowns accounted for more than 20 percent of the team's overall touchdowns. In terms of offensive touchdowns, they ranked in the bottom five of the league.

That is what changed. What NEEDS to change going forward and for BB to lengthen his tenure is, for starters, a total revamping of the offensive coaching staff plus a new special teams coordinator. And it better happen soon.

 

[Ring 6]

Draft, FAcy, extension what else is their genius? Instead he did nothing and brought in the skeleton of Cam Newton.

Who?
I showed you all the draft options. That wouldn’t work.
What free agent? Name one. There were none available that year that were worth any thing.
This is typical, you look at a situation and criticize for not doing something that wasn’t possible to do. Should he have built one?

 

[Ring 6]

"What changed," you ask? Matt Patricia/Joe Judge are what changed.

Do you honestly think because Hunter Henry said "it's the same playbook" that it REALLY was the same offensive system in 2022 that existed under Josh McDaniels? It wasn't. "Same playbook" means nothing. Perhaps they brought forward "plays" from "the playbook," but blocking schemes were different, terminology changed, play calling suffered, formations went haywire, LOS blocking protection/receiver route/play audibles were limited severely in 2022, passing game timing and receiver route spacing became problematic -- all with essentially the same offensive personnel as 2021.

The below 2022 offensive rankings are pathetic compared to 2021. The Patriots had 31 offensive touchdowns this season (19 passing/12 rushing) vs. 48 offensive touchdowns in 2021 (24 passing/24 rushing). That is a difference of SEVENTEEN TOUCHDOWNS, nearly one per game!

The Patriots offense ranked sixth in 2021, 17th in 2022. Total offensive yards dropped from 6,008 in 2021 to 5,348 in 2022. Offensive penalties increased from 95 in 2021 to 104 in 2022. First downs dropped from 326 in 2021 to 264 in 2022. On down the line, in every category, the offense took a huge step back under an offensive coordinator with no prior experience running an offense and a quarterbacks coach with no experience in that role.

Only the blind and willingly ignorant would try pinning the Patriots' 2022 offensive regression chiefly on player personnel.

Here's where Patriots ranked in every offensive category in 2022 in the NFL

Here's a look at where the Patriots ranked in just about every offensive category you can use to assess the potency or lack thereof from an offense.

www.cbsnews.com

The overall scoring rank looks fine, but that number was boosted in a major way by eight non-offensive touchdowns (five INT returns, two fumble returns, one punt return). Those eight non-offensive touchdowns accounted for more than 20 percent of the team's overall touchdowns. In terms of offensive touchdowns, they ranked in the bottom five of the league.

The offense was the same. There were some changes, just like every year. The problems were the OL and the indecision of the QB.

 

[SVN]

I don't want Bill gone in 2023. If he fails to perform again, then yes. You can't look at a 5 year stretch w/o significant progress in any field and say, it's ok you used to be good 6 years ago for a long time. That's BS.

I've been following the Pats for way longer than the early 2000s and am not looking forward to the losing ways.

Sure.But what is losing ways? we havent really hit rock bottom like almost every one of the 31 teams have in the last 20 yrs. not saying that is the standard but the performance in comparison to the outrage if you look in vacuum , 2 non playoff seasons in 3 yrs isnt the worst ever to warrant a firing. Vrabel just lost 7 straight and hasnt won a playoff game in 2-3 yrs as well i think. Tomlin hasnt won many playoff games and keeps getting kudos for not having a losing season. He dosnt seem to be on the firing block. Is it just BB's media dealings which is getting him this or is it just boston ?

 

[TheRainMaker]

I can see them naming Caley the OC more than BoB, but it would have to come with the title. Then, Bill will be forced to follow the Rooney Rule which he's balked at for years.

Rumor is Caley declined to sign an extension because Bill gave the OC job to a defensive coordinator. Caley got Pepper Johnson'd and is rumored to join McDaniels in LV. If Caley and Mayo leave, the well is really running dry for Bill.

Franchises never lose their QB if they want to keep them - ever!

Winner for that alone.

 

[upstater1]

I agree that with their $37M in cap and 11 draft picks they're likely to end up w/ 9 or 10 wins. But we've seen all the other 8-9 teams being real close also. Even if they make the playoffs, I don't expect them to be able to match up against BUF, CIN, KC with the large disparity in talent since coaching is no longer a plus on our side (more like equal).

I certainly don't see a wholesale change or major uptick in talent unless we're likely to hit on two All Pros in the draft. There's just too many needs: two OTs + OL depth, WR1, CB1, NT, dual-LB, and major improvement in QB play.

Then there's the coaching. Who knows what Bill does. My money is on him continuing the experiment with the sales pitch being: "It will be better for the team not to give a 3rd OC to our 3rd year QB. We aren't the Jets."

I mean do we believe Bill is going to go through the Rooney Rule process? Has he ever? There's a lot of openings for OC / HCs out there. F*ck, I'm depressed.

I think they'll be able to hang with and beat the top teams by the end of the year. The problem is you have to beat more than one and it's practically a guarantee they'll be on the road.

 

[venecol]

"What changed," you ask? Matt Patricia/Joe Judge playing Keystone Kops with the offense is what changed.

Agree but that was in 2022. I'm talking about 2020-22.

Do you honestly think because Hunter Henry said "it's the same playbook" that it REALLY was the same offensive system in 2022 that existed under Josh McDaniels? It wasn't. "Same playbook" means nothing. Perhaps they brought forward "plays" from "the playbook," but blocking schemes were different, terminology changed, play calling suffered, formations went haywire, LOS blocking protection/receiver route/play audibles were limited severely in 2022, passing game timing and receiver route spacing became problematic -- all with essentially the same offensive personnel as 2021.

I'll let @Ring 6 answer this one.

Only the blind and willingly ignorant would try pinning the Patriots' 2022 offensive regression chiefly on player personnel.

Everything you pointed out was because of Bill's decisions. He's the one responsible.

That is what changed. What NEEDS to change going forward and for BB to lengthen his tenure is, for starters, a total revamping of the offensive coaching staff plus a new special teams coordinator. And it better happen soon.

Agree, but I gave doubts it happens.

 

[venecol]

When did he have reason to follow it?
You said he balked at it. That’s a lie. If you aren’t filling a Rooney rule position then you would not have opportunity to follow it.

Lol, OK man. He skirted around the Rooney Rule by not giving his staff formal OC/DC titles. Is that better than balking? You realize he's the only GM in the league doing this, right?

 

[TheRainMaker]

How about we talk about what FA's should Bill sign to address the holes on offense and defense?

Does he address the Tackle needs via FA?

Does Harris return or does another team take a chance on him?

PFF is smoking the ganja rating Jakobi Meyers at the 8th best FA in the entire class. Does Bill get into a bidding war?

How about Jesse Bates at FS to replace McCourty?

Does Guy get replaced with someone else?

David Long from TEN is hyped up to be a good off ball LB.

Does Bill go after James Bradberry who has had a resurgence at CB this season in Philly?

2023 NFL Free Agent Rankings: Top 200 players set to enter free agency

We look at the 200 best players set to hit the free-agent market this offseason with free agency less than a week away.

www.pff.com

 

[UrbanCowboy]

What if...

Bill knew he wasn't getting the OC he wanted so he brought on Judge and Patricia as an experiment, paid them as consultants, which allowed them to continue to be paid on their previous contracts. If it works out, super, if it doesn't they are still here to be moved to a new position with a season under their belt. Let's say the agreement was that BOB was coming after the end of their season, but they had to wait so they bring in the other two to keep the seat warm. So now we just wait and bump FM to Ernie's old role, and Judge to whatever role they wanted for him. Too pie in the sky?

Ok, let's talk about reality for now.

I said in the other thread I wonder if 70-71 year old Bill is capable of doing what 60-65 year old Bill was. I feel that Bill casts such a big shadow that it's possible no one challenges him. Because of that, and his propensity to be around guys he wants to be around, and coach guys he wants to coach, is he capable of turning this thing around? I legit don't know, and that's hard for me to say because I have been IBWT for a long time.

I don't think they are going to win without an elite QB, based on how this roster is built currently. Whether Mac is that comes down to a good OC and QB coach, neither of which I think he got this year. So... need to have an adequate QB, which Mac is, with a stellar defense and elite playmakers. The D is good, but not good enough to carry a subpar offense. Elite playmakers don't grow on trees, and are expensive. Need to draft them, and history has shown that Bill sucks at drafting and developing star WRs. I doubt very much that at 71 years of age, he will suddenly become adept at identifying, drafting, and developing elite wideouts. That means he needs to make Mac elite. How does he do that? Bringing in the right coaches to make that happen. Can he do that? I dunno. Maybe. They've not had a pass rush under Bill like they did this year, so it's possible a leopard changes his spots. Maybe. That's still a huge if that even the best offensive guys can turn Mac into a top tier QB.


This right here. Bill will need a lot of self analysis to come to this point. RKK can lead him to it, but will bill listen?

I covered the "I want to coach guys I want to coach" thing above. That's a huge concern to me, as his stubbornness to do it his way.

This is big. Go back to 2001, Bill brought in Bryan Cox, and he brought a toughness and a winning attitude that lacked here in Foxboro. I think there's a lack of guys on the team who know how hard it is to win, and Slate and DMac were playing on the back nine. They need to bring in someone who knows how to win and can take over the locker room, all while staying on point with what Bill wants to do. I have no idea who that is, but a Rodney Harrison type. Swagger, attitude, and the professional cache to get guys attention. Charismatic enough that people listen. Good luck finding that guy.

oh, that's right about Cox. He was a really key addition. Hated him when he was an opponent; loved him on the Pats

 

[venecol]

Who?
I showed you all the draft options. That wouldn’t work.

No, you didn't show all the draft options, you excluded all the 1st rounders. Stop lying.

What free agent? Name one. There were none available that year that were worth any thing.

That year?

This is typical, you look at a situation and criticize for not doing something that wasn’t possible to do. Should he have built one?

Nothing at all was possible. Is that what you expect everyone to believe? No extension was possible? No FAs were possible? Lamar wasn't possible? Bill found himself in a black hole of impossibility with no options on what to do. Oh my. Poor Bill. His only option was Cam Newton. What a pickle.

Welcome back. Good to see your sabatical was completely wasted.

 

[Ring 6]

Lol, OK man. He skirted around the Rooney Rule by not giving his staff formal OC/DC titles. Is that better than balking? You realize he's the only GM in the league doing this, right?

Your argument is that he wanted to name coordinators but purposely didn’t because he didn’t want to conduct other interviews?
Why? What possible reason would there be to do that? There is none.

 

[Ring 6]

No, you didn't show all the draft options, you excluded all the 1st rounders. Stop lying.

That year?

Nothing at all was possible. Is that what you expect everyone to believe? No extension was possible? No FAs were possible? Lamar wasn't possible? Bill found himself in a black hole of impossibility with no options on what to do. Oh my. Poor Bill. His only option was Cam Newton. What a pickle.

Welcome back. Good to see your sabatical was completely wasted.

And I added the first rounders, there was 1.

You can feel free to name the options. “There must have been some” is a horrible answer to showing there were none.

Feel free to list any free agents.
Feel free to claim Brady could have been held hostage.

Drafting Lamar Jackson makes no sense under the circumstances, which were, Brady here at least 2 more years, Brady feeling alienated when a qb was drafted in round 2 when he was 4 years younger, needing to entirely change the system in mid stream if/when Brady left and an organization approach of going all in to maximize what was left of the dynasty, and winning the SB.

 

[venecol]

Sure.But what is losing ways? we havent really hit rock bottom like almost every one of the 31 teams have in the last 20 yrs. not saying that is the standard but the performance in comparison to the outrage if you look in vacuum , 2 non playoff seasons in 3 yrs isnt the worst ever to warrant a firing. Vrabel just lost 7 straight and hasnt won a playoff game in 2-3 yrs as well i think. Tomlin hasnt won many playoff games and keeps getting kudos for not having a losing season. He dosnt seem to be on the firing block. Is it just BB's media dealings which is getting him this or is it just boston ?

Ask Kraft, he's the one that said he's the biggest patriots fan and is frustrated w/ team not winning a playoff game in 3 years (now 4 years). He said we're in the business of winning. He's the Owner. It starts with him.

 

[venecol]

I think they'll be able to hang with and beat the top teams by the end of the year.

Based on what?

The problem is you have to beat more than one and it's practically a guarantee they'll be on the road.

Agree.

 

[upstater1]

Based on what?

Agree.

Our top players are now becoming vets. Our defense is coming together.

I'm assuming our tackle problem is going to be fixed. It was the major problem impacting the offense. When Mac looked really bad after he came back from injury, it was with Cajuste and McDermott letting people run free. Patricia threw up his hands at that point and went screen, screen, screen.

The Patriots have very few holes. On defense, it's the 2 LBs who are not good at all in the passing game. On offense it's the 2 tackles.

We are limited at WR ad QB and we will continue to be limited there. But elsewhere there are no limitations.

 

[venecol]

How about we talk about what FA's should Bill sign to address the holes on offense and defense?

Does he address the Tackle needs via FA?

Does Harris return or does another team take a chance on him?

PFF is smoking the ganja rating Jakobi Meyers at the 8th best FA in the entire class. Does Bill get into a bidding war?

How about Jesse Bates at FS to replace McCourty?

Does Guy get replaced with someone else?

David Long from TEN is hyped up to be a good off ball LB.

Does Bill go after James Bradberry who has had a resurgence at CB this season in Philly?

2023 NFL Free Agent Rankings: Top 200 players set to enter free agency

We look at the 200 best players set to hit the free-agent market this offseason with free agency less than a week away.

www.pff.com

I like all the guys you mentioned. There's quite a few talented FAs. The question is does Bill go after elite (A) talent or does he stick to his B/C role players.

The '21 FA class was a disaster. I remember several of us critiquing it and getting blasted. Everyone was giddy. Judon is the only talented player from that class. We need more Judons less Smiths.

 

[Ring 6]

No, you didn't show all the draft options, you excluded all the 1st rounders. Stop lying.

That year?

Nothing at all was possible. Is that what you expect everyone to believe? No extension was possible? No FAs were possible? Lamar wasn't possible? Bill found himself in a black hole of impossibility with no options on what to do. Oh my. Poor Bill. His only option was Cam Newton. What a pickle.

Welcome back. Good to see your sabatical was completely wasted.

My “sabbatical” wasn’t wasted at all. It was thoroughly enjoy able to not deal with the disaster this place has become because of posters like you. My return was triggered by the prospect of the changes Ian is going to make that will mitigate the damage people like you do to this site. But thanks for your concern.

 

[SVN]

Ask Kraft, he's the one that said he's the biggest patriots fan and is frustrated w/ team not winning a playoff game in 3 years (now 4 years). He said we're in the business of winning. He's the Owner. It starts with him.

Sure. The whole roster has turned over in the last 3-4 yrs. We still have gone 10-8, 9-8 ,8-9. I am not happy as fan at all. But the current landscape isnt the worst. And moving on from BB to any new coach is another 2-3 yrs of rebuild. Its not like this roster is built to win now. You can blame BB for that but still a new coach will start again from scratch to rebuild.