Patriots Pregame Thread Pre Game Thread - Pats @ Bills

[notex]

Bills

If enough of the right teams lost this week then we could have multiple playoff teams with below .500 records.

Teams should have to earn the right to play in the playoffs. As it stands now you only have to have a better record than 3 other teams to win a "division" and make it to the playoffs, and your record can be worse than teams that aren't in the playoffs, even if you played them and lost. That's pretty lame.

Agreed. I've never liked the structure of playoff seeding in the NFL. I see no downside of making it the best 7 (or 8) teams. Make divisional standing (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th in division) the first tiebreaker, divisional record second tie breaker, and still have teams all play x2 a year. You'd still have divisional rivalry by playing twice a season and the division be important for playoffs but it doesn't reward the "best of the losers".

 

[Ross12]

The way this hurts the Pats is that Cinci was probably gonna beat the Bills and get that #2 seed, so if we get in thru the back door, our playoff game would have been at Cinci. The odds now are that Buffalo gets the 2 seed.

But, if we can knock off the Bills Sunday, we'll be playing at Cinci next week.

Pats win, Bengals win - Pats play Bengals
Pats win, Bengals lose - Pats play Bills
Pats lose (but still get in), Bengals win - Pats play Bills
Pats lose (but still get in), Bengals lose - Pats play Bills

Imagine a scenario where the Bills play "out of their minds" against the Patriots and beat them handily this week, but the Titans, Dolphins and Steelers all lose, so it sets up a Patriots v. Bills rematch next week. Then the Bills run out of steam due to giving it all they had mentally the prior week and fall in wild card weekend.

 

[Real fan 02]

The Bills board is talking about an idea to create an 8th AFC seed and eliminating the bye for 1. Then they can forfeit/cancel/whatever the Bengals game. KC would be in the drivers seat for 1 but they don’t really gain an advantage from it. Could be a compromise and make things less unfair for a bunch of teams.

Can’t see the league doing that on very short notice but it’s an interesting idea. I think the Pats are probably in the playoffs now if that happens.

I had us loosing 33-13 before the somber week with the Hamlin situation.. seeing the young man is on the right track wich I'm happy to see of course! As far as the actual game itself, I was rooting for Cincy and Joe Brady. As the hope would be Buffalo wouldn't get the 1st seed, and therefore rest players wich would benefit us!

Well.... as all as fans can sense. That raucous crowd, with the emotions and all running high I can absolutely sense a beat down. I'm talking something worse than the play off loss. We've been the beast of the east for so long in the past, and now I'm sure the bills will want to make sure we have no chance to make the post season!

 

[ashley]

I like the Jets Defense against a rookie qb

 

[crawhammer]

Pre-bye the Patriots offense was averaging 20.2 point per game.
Post-bye the Patriots offense is averaging 14.9 points per game.

So the offensive production went from not great to bad. The Bills defense is depleted, and certainly not as dominant looking as they were entering the season, but they still rank 2nd in P/G and 1st in Y/G. And the Bills defense has been really good in the red zone, ranking 1st. The Patriots red zone offense is really bad, ranking 32nd (by a wide margin).

All of the data puts to a very low output from the Patriots offense in this game. I'll say 13 points max from Mac & Co. I'll give the Patriots another score on defense or ST. That's a 20-point max for the Patriots in this one. Then all the Patriots defense will need to do is keep Allen & Co. under 20. So what are the chances of that?

Firstly, the Bills are outscoring their opponents by 423 to 270, so there's that. Bills are averaging 28.2 points per game. Their red zone offense ranks 10th. The Patriots red zone defense somewhat surprisingly ranks fairly low at 22nd. One possible advantage the Patriots have here is turnovers. Patriots are 2nd in takeaways while the Bills are 4th in giveaways. But I've already factored in a defensive or ST score into the Patriots max of 20 points for this game. Patriots defense ranks 6th in allowing 19.5 points per game. But since the wind storm, the Patriots defense is allowing 37.4 points per game to the Bills. Splitting the difference there, the Bills minimum point total for this game is 29 points.

Therefore, even allowing for the max and min points respectively, the final score for this one:

Bills 29
Patriots 20

 

[Steve102]

I know this was in the other thread, but it's relevant here.

They are gonna get smoked. The Bills will be so high it won't even be funny.

 

[ashley]

Pre-bye the Patriots offense was averaging 20.2 point per game.
Post-bye the Patriots offense is averaging 14.9 points per game.

So the offensive production went from not great to bad. The Bills defense is depleted, and certainly not as dominant looking as they were entering the season, but they still rank 2nd in P/G and 1st in Y/G. And the Bills defense has been really good in the red zone, ranking 1st. The Patriots red zone offense is really bad, ranking 32nd (by a wide margin).

All of the data puts to a very low output from the Patriots offense in this game. I'll say 13 points max from Mac & Co. I'll give the Patriots another score on defense or ST. That's a 20-point max for the Patriots in this one. Then all the Patriots defense will need to do is keep Allen & Co. under 20. So what are the chances of that?

Firstly, the Bills are outscoring their opponents by 423 to 270, so there's that. Bills are averaging 28.2 points per game. Their red zone offense ranks 10th. The Patriots red zone defense somewhat surprisingly ranks fairly low at 22nd. One possible advantage the Patriots have here is turnovers. Patriots are 2nd in takeaways while the Bills are 4th in giveaways. But I've already factored in a defensive or ST score into the Patriots max of 20 points for this game. Patriots defense ranks 6th in allowing 19.5 points per game. But since the wind storm, the Patriots defense is allowing 37.4 points per game to the Bills. Splitting the difference there, the Bills minimum point total for this game is 29 points.

Therefore, even allowing for the max and min points respectively, the final score for this one:

Bills 29
Patriots 20

This is going to be an impossible game to predict. Who knows the emotions that will affect the outcome. The Bills are a better team. They are a top two -three team in the league with a top two-three qb.

Our team has been competitive in most games this year. I can argue that we have overachieved and still could have 10 wins (horrible call against the Raiders and fumble going in for the game winning td against Cincy). Our O-line has been atrocious, and our Offense/play calling has been bad, but here we are. This team is resilient, well coached defensively and never gives up. Will it be good enough this weekend to come out with a win? Who knows, I am hoping it does like a lot of posters on here, but we shall see.

 

[crawhammer]

I like the Jets Defense against a rookie qb

It hardly matters who the Jets start at quarterback, they all truthfully suck. Flacco will probably have multiple picks in this game. But Miami isn't much better off with Thompson. I'm inclined to go with the best unit in this matchup which is the Jets defense but McDaniel may be coaching for his job in this one so if his players really like him then I can see Miami doing just enough to win. Whichever team loses this game will have ended the season on a 6-game losing streak after being well-positioned for a postseason birth. Firing the head coach usually is a good place to start with a collapse like that. I personally would give McDaniel more time. I don't like Saleh to begin with but I think NYJ will bring him back next season.

 

[jdlboot14]

While it seems the good news about Hamlin is only a bigger boost for the Bills to completely stomp us.
But, it could be an emotional release for the Bills that actually deflates some of the intensity on the field??
At least, it could be the emotional "permission" the Pats players need to still go in with fire to win, despite the situation, and fight.
We are the ones with our backs to the wall, they're in fine shape no matter what - related to a home playoff game next week.
Who knows how this all goes.

 

[Pacific Coast Patriot]

Pats win, Bengals win - Pats play Bengals
Pats win, Bengals lose - Pats play Bills
Pats lose (but still get in), Bengals win - Pats play Bills
Pats lose (but still get in), Bengals lose - Pats play Bills

Imagine a scenario where the Bills play "out of their minds" against the Patriots and beat them handily this week, but the Titans, Dolphins and Steelers all lose, so it sets up a Patriots v. Bills rematch next week. Then the Bills run out of steam due to giving it all they had mentally the prior week and fall in wild card weekend.

I think it will be a miracle if the Browns, Jets and Jags all win. If they can then I agree - it does happen that a team will smoke another one, then shockingly lose the rematch, especially back to back.

I think the Bills extra emotion everyone's talking about will be offset by their disrupted preparations. Having said that, any given regular week I would expect them to stomp us, with the way we play them the last few seasons.

So here's hoping we pull off the upset, then end up facing Cincy. I think that's our best chance to do anything.

 

[mike_usagisan]

...but McDaniel may be coaching for his job in this one so if his players really like him then I can see Miami doing just enough to win. Whichever team loses this game will have ended the season on a 6-game losing streak after being well-positioned for a postseason birth. Firing the head coach usually is a good place to start with a collapse like that. I personally would give McDaniel more time. I don't like Saleh to begin with but I think NYJ will bring him back next season.

Even if they lost to the Jets, you don't think McDaniel would get the benefit of the doubt for the Tua situation derailing the season and get another year?

 

[jimnance]

I like the Jets Defense against a rookie qb

Flacco gives them a shot.
Wilson is the worst draft pick in the nfl since Ryan Leaf

 

[jimnance]

I think it will be a miracle if the Browns, Jets and Jags all win. If they can then I agree - it does happen that a team will smoke another one, then shockingly lose the rematch, especially back to back.

I think the Bills extra emotion everyone's talking about will be offset by their disrupted preparations. Having said that, any given regular week I would expect them to stomp us, with the way we play them the last few seasons.

So here's hoping we pull off the upset, then end up facing Cincy. I think that's our best chance to do anything.

Cincy is better than Buffalo.

 

[crawhammer]

This is going to be an impossible game to predict. Who knows the emotions that will affect the outcome. The Bills are a better team. They are a top two -three team in the league with a top two-three qb.

Our team has been competitive in most games this year. I can argue that we have overachieved and still could have 10 wins (horrible call against the Raiders and fumble going in for the game winning td against Cincy). Our O-line has been atrocious, and our Offense/play calling has been bad, but here we are. This team is resilient, well coached defensively and never gives up. Will it be good enough this weekend to come out with a win? Who knows, I am hoping it does like a lot of posters on here, but we shall see.

I just gave you the correct score.

I think by Sunday the Bills players will be locked back into football mode. Hamlin is doing really well now, probably better than would have been expected to this point, so any distraction regarding his condition will be negligible. Really now the team is rallying behind Hamlin's improvement and using it as motivation to win this weekend in his honor. It all adds up to both teams being at their baseline heading into the game. The Bills are a better team and they really have had the Patriots number back through the 2020 season. A win by the Patriots on Sunday will be a major upset.

 

[mike_usagisan]

I know this was in the other thread, but it's relevant here.

They are gonna get smoked. The Bills will be so high it won't even be funny.

We should just wear Washington Generals jerseys for this one.

 

[slash83]

Buffalo gonna stampede NE this Sunday. That place is gonna be rocking and they’re gonna come out fighting for their teammate.

 

[Steve102]

We should just wear Washington Generals jerseys for this one.

I am sure the national hatred for the Pats is going to be off the charts. I wish the post season didn't hang in the balance. I guess it shows the importance of winning the close games (like the GD lateral) when the opportunity is there.

 

[crawhammer]

Even if they lost to the Jets, you don't think McDaniel would get the benefit of the doubt for the Tua situation derailing the season and get another year?

They were losing games with Tua as well. I'm not sure they enter next season with Tua as their quarterback. Firstly, he may not be good enough given the talent around him is exceptional, and secondly, concussions are probably going to end his career prematurely.

It's difficult to justify bringing back the head coach of a team with such a dramatic collapse. Losing 6 straight and going from 8-3 to 8-9 and out of the postseason, that's brutal. That said, I personally like McDaniel and I would bring him back. There are rumors starting up again about Sean Payton and Miami so maybe that turns into a real thing. So aside from that, I think Miami probably gives McDaniel more time (perhaps with a new quarterback).

 

[crawhammer]

Flacco gives them a shot.
Wilson is the worst draft pick in the nfl since Ryan Leaf

Agreed on Zach Wilson but Flacco has become so stationary in the pocket that he's just a sitting duck. Miami's defense may not be good enough to take advantage of it though. Still I'm giving Miami a slight edge in this game.

 

[mike_usagisan]

They were losing games with Tua as well. I'm not sure they enter next season with Tua as their quarterback. Firstly, he may not be good enough given the talent around him is exceptional, and secondly, concussions are probably going to end his career prematurely.

It's difficult to justify bringing back the head coach of a team with such a dramatic collapse. Losing 6 straight and going from 8-3 to 8-9 and out of the postseason, that's brutal. That said, I personally like McDaniel and I would bring him back. There are rumors starting up again about Sean Payton and Miami so maybe that turns into a real thing. So aside from that, I think Miami probably gives McDaniel more time (perhaps with a new quarterback).

True and ownership wants to make a big splash. I still think he gets another season, but if they can get a big name coach, they'd definitely pull the trigger.