Content Post Words on things I watched, read & heard II

[BaconGrundleCandy]

i agree but who would you go for? The WR FA market sucks, our TE contracts are already league high, two OT i liked with jenkins and conklin signed contracts already and there will be teams overspending here on Brown for example who isn't worth the money.
I don't want to trade a high pick either because we need difference makers via draft cheap, that's the philosophy i would consider esp. picking top 15 in a good class where you may can trade down. Also who would be available?

You're not getting a WR in this year's class better than a Higgins, Pittman, Aiyuk or Lamb for example. And if you want one you'll have to trade up slightly bc they won't be available to us if you look at where historically WR1 get drafted.

Next is when is the last time we developed a WR we drafted high?

I don't want to trade assets either but with the above said. Big year on Mac's contract. Us being slightly embarrassed this year with parking lots empty, getting booted off TV games. You're running out of options.

I wouldn't be opposed to drafting Wright early for example. There's just not 4-5 guys like Wirfs, Becton, Thomas etc available but it'd not a top heavy class. And again historically those guys will go earlier than where we'll be picking. Especially if we actually make the playoffs lol.

 

[jays52]

I'll let @long distance answer this but I believe we've allowed 4 or 5 blocked punts the past few years after none the previous 3 or 4 years. You block a punt and your chances of winning the game go up dramatically.

IIRC a punt block is one of the most statistically significant plays in terms of effect on win probability.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

IIRC a punt block is one of the most statistically significant plays in terms of effect on win probability.

90% I believe.

It's like a sack X 100. Sack is like 80% drive killer. You block a punt and it's a real game changer.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

More than a few realistic options here you could target

 

[AQPE]

You're not getting a WR in this year's class better than a Higgins, Pittman, Aiyuk or Lamb for example. And if you want one you'll have to trade up slightly bc they won't be available to us if you look at where historically WR1 get drafted.

Next is when is the last time we developed a WR we drafted high?

I don't want to trade assets either but with the above said. Big year on Mac's contract. Us being slightly embarrassed this year with parking lots empty, getting booted off TV games. You're running out of options.

I wouldn't be opposed to drafting Wright early for example. There's just not 4-5 guys like Wirfs, Becton, Thomas etc available but it'd not a top heavy class. And again historically those guys will go earlier than where we'll be picking. Especially if we actually make the playoffs lol.

Considering Denver’s situation, and thinking about BGCs idea about trading a 1 and 3 for Tee Higgins (which I would do), I’d be interested in seeing if they’d deal Jeudy and one of their OL (Bolles, Fleming, Risner, or Cushenberry) for the #1 and something less than the #3.

 

[DaBruinz]

I'll let @long distance answer this but I believe we've allowed 4 or 5 blocked punts the past few years after none the previous 3 or 4 years. You block a punt and your chances of winning the game go up dramatically.

Fair enough.

There were 3 blocked punts last year. The Players who allowed them (King, Olszewski, Collins) were all jettisoned. Though, Collins was jettisoned and brought back.

Those players are an example of BB making changes and holding people accountable.

I haven't reviewed the ones from this year to see if it was a punter issue or a line issue or both. I don't expect Palardy to be back. If it was players on the line who didn't block properly, then we'll see if they're gone.

 

[upstater1]

You're not getting a WR in this year's class better than a Higgins, Pittman, Aiyuk or Lamb for example. And if you want one you'll have to trade up slightly bc they won't be available to us if you look at where historically WR1 get drafted.

Next is when is the last time we developed a WR we drafted high?

I don't want to trade assets either but with the above said. Big year on Mac's contract. Us being slightly embarrassed this year with parking lots empty, getting booted off TV games. You're running out of options.

I wouldn't be opposed to drafting Wright early for example. There's just not 4-5 guys like Wirfs, Becton, Thomas etc available but it'd not a top heavy class. And again historically those guys will go earlier than where we'll be picking. Especially if we actually make the playoffs lol.

Over the last 5 years, the breakdown between WRs taken in the first 15 picks of the 1st round compared to those taken later is interesting. You'll only find studs in the 1st 15, and though you'll find some studs after that, you'll also find Kadarius Toney, NKeal Harry, Jaelen Reagor, Rashod Bateman who hasn't really shown. Jahan Dotson and Trelon Burks look OK so far, but I'm sure teams were hoping for more than 25 catches and 300 yards at this point 15 games in.

Henry Ruggs is obviously a special case.

I wonder if Quentin Johnson and the kid with hyphenated last name from Ohio State would be top 15 types.

 

[upstater1]

More than a few realistic options here you could target

Seeing Zay Jones there is shocking

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Seeing Zay Jones there is shocking

A lot of people killed the Kirk signing but that's lead directly to Jones having a big year.

That's exactly what this offense is missing. All of our guys are #2/3 and really need that #1 to help make this thing work.

Over the last 5 years, the breakdown between WRs taken in the first 15 picks of the 1st round compared to those taken later is interesting. You'll only find studs in the 1st 15, and though you'll find some studs after that, you'll also find Kadarius Toney, NKeal Harry, Jaelen Reagor, Rashod Bateman who hasn't really shown. Jahan Dotson and Trelon Burks look OK so far, but I'm sure teams were hoping for more than 25 catches and 300 yards at this point 15 games in.

Henry Ruggs is obviously a special case.

I wonder if Quentin Johnson and the kid with hyphenated last name from Ohio State would be top 15 types.

Q will be the first WR taken. After him there's a few. Hyatt, Addison JSN all there.

I loved Reagor and should be noted he actually went before Jefferson. So you can still get a quality guy outside the top 15 but ideally want that first bite at the apple.

 

[upstater1]

A lot of people killed the Kirk signing but that's lead directly to Jones having a big year.

That's exactly what this offense is missing. All of our guys are #2/3 and really need that #1 to help make this thing work.

Q will be the first WR taken. After him there's a few. Hyatt, Addison JSN all there.

I loved Reagor and should be noted he actually went before Jefferson. So you can still get a quality guy outside the top 15 but ideally want that first bite at the apple.

Zay Jones is considered the biggest bust at his position by Buffalo fans.

 

[captain stone]

Considering Denver’s situation, and thinking about BGCs idea about trading a 1 and 3 for Tee Higgins (which I would do), I’d be interested in seeing if they’d deal Jeudy and one of their OL (Bolles, Fleming, Risner, or Cushenberry) for the #1 and something less than the #3.

Don't forget Quinn Meinerz, who should be here already anyway.

 

[patsfanfromoversea]

A lot of people killed the Kirk signing but that's lead directly to Jones having a big year.

That's exactly what this offense is missing. All of our guys are #2/3 and really need that #1 to help make this thing work.

Q will be the first WR taken. After him there's a few. Hyatt, Addison JSN all there.

I loved Reagor and should be noted he actually went before Jefferson. So you can still get a quality guy outside the top 15 but ideally want that first bite at the apple.

I like zay flowers on day 2 for us , besides that I am not in love with this wr class esp high first round
I think addison is rated to high, I think njigba has more talent
I do like the idea if we don’t make the playoffs to trade down into the twentys and trade up with the extra pick and one of our third founders to maybe pick two times in the area 21-32 to select an OT and CB or josh downs
I like the CB class a lot this year

 

[patsfanfromoversea]

You're not getting a WR in this year's class better than a Higgins, Pittman, Aiyuk or Lamb for example. And if you want one you'll have to trade up slightly bc they won't be available to us if you look at where historically WR1 get drafted.

Agreed johnston probably a top 8-12 pick
Who would you trade for? I would like jerry jeudy or mclaurin

Next is when is the last time we developed a WR we drafted high?

True..in fact we haven’t developed any wr no matter where they were drafted except udfa meyers , Troy Brown needs to be on the hot seat as well

I don't want to trade assets either but with the above said. Big year on Mac's contract. Us being slightly embarrassed this year with parking lots empty, getting booted off TV games. You're running out of options.

I wouldn't be opposed to drafting Wright early for example. There's just not 4-5 guys like Wirfs, Becton, Thomas etc available but it'd not a top heavy class. And again historically those guys will go earlier than where we'll be picking. Especially if we actually make the playoffs lol.

I wouldn’t mind Wright, Paris Johnson, bergeron or harrison either, Broderick Jones even , I think these guys can develop into starting caliber OT with solid Coaching

 

[Uptown]

 

[patsinthesnow]

I think this is thread worthy but I'll leave this here for now bc we'll have more than a few. Not as good but I have my own little space here so why not.

I big believer in "judging." I never understood the hesitancy in it?? Like I'm not talking about religion (you're all crazy), race (you're all assholes) or sensuality (you live once **** your fill) but rather on someone's work.

I just don't see the problem with it so let's have at it.

I've said this a few times but I hope it's sinking in for others. This is an organizational failure from top to bottom. I'm not going deep into ownership here, on this post but it's clear we need that transition to happen sooner than later.

Post-Brady has been an abject failure so far and next year is easily the most important by miles. It's hard to put it in words bc I'm dumb and inarticulate but it's as important as any. Many contracts coming up or able to be moved around, including year 3 with Mac. We have a ton of money. A good amount of picks and overall flexibility. We might suck but not stuck. We're not locked down and again have some overall flexibility. So with how the past few years have gone. Coming up on a half decade since Tom. The decisions we make in the near future will shape this team for the next 5-10 years.

You can tie some of the recent decisions directly to the failures on offense. It's not like we haven't known some of this but with the year coming to an end it's just being highlighted. Loudly and over and over again.


The TE position is particularly concerning when you look at it. I mean we're a running team without a real TE you can leave on the field all 3 downs. And that's ****in unacceptable after drafting Asiasi and Keene. Signing Henry and Smith to huge contracts to the largest spending TE in the league. TE is literally one of the positions of need this off-season. You can't use both TE on the field bc neither can block lol. It's not funny it's sad.


The WR room isn't bad but the definition of average. None really separate themselves literally or physically and it goes against everything we've seen in Bill's tenure here. They're all good to decent #2/3 but desperately need a #1 target to really appreciate what they do. You can't ask guys to be who they're not. All are pretty good but have a ceiling (Meyers), aren't getting targeted (Bourne, who was our best WR today and probablyour best overall) or are good but unreliable (Agholor)


We've always had an option that can get open instantly in the MOF. I've been bringing it up for a while but it's been a huge problem and surprisingly hasn't gone away by not filling that position. Edleman, Amendola, Welker ... even Woodhead and White. Rham has stepped up in that role but we're really missing those quick hitters. Then guys like Brown, Pattern, Branch who were versatile and tough af. I feel like the group we have today is closer to guys like Stallworth, Amendola, Givens and Lloyd as opposed to the group directly above. I'm not even bringing up the all time greats in Moss and Gronk, mostly Gronk but they were game changers that actually made Tom Brady better. So needless to say we need more help in this area of targets.


We traded up and drafted Thornton top 50. So far the returns have been bad. You draft guys like that and they have to make an impact when out there.

OG George Pickens - 69/42 target/rec 643 yards 15.5 Y/R 2 TD


Alec Pierce - 65/32 target/rec 510 yards 15.9 Y/R 2TD


Skyy Moore - 28/18 target/rec 212 yards 11.8 YR 130 something return yards


Wandale Robinson has about the same yards and Christian Watson has obviously exploded lately. Yes those last two were drafted ahead but not much. Just perspective of what to expect from guys drafted around the same spot. TT has 33/17 166 9.8 yr and 1 TD. Few rushing yards and a TD. He's been hurt but the impact isn't there when he's available.


So the group of targets doesn't particularly do anything top tier or outstanding. They don't really get open by themselves consistently. We don't have a real physical presence even after signing Parker, trading for Sanu and drafting Harry. They dont do anything great if we're being honest.


I get that blaming Patricia is cool. And he absolutely deserves his fair share but Bill knew this wasn't the most explosive or talented group and took a former defensive coach, recent fired HC who was lost in Detroit. And put him in charge of this offense for the most part. Like remember that one scene in GoTs where Arya goes to the House of Black and White?? Ik I'm a loser but I think about this from time to time.




"I had nowhere else to go." "You had everywhere else to go"


Bill could have chose anyone. Anyone. Knowing you need a guy, as sad as it is. Like Josh. Like say what you want about Josh he knew how to make a group of misfits work. Very rarely if at all did he get a traditional personnel to run. Granted some players were all time greats but he maximized guys no matter their skillset and made it work. That's what you needed this year. I'm not a super Josh fan. Don't want him as a HC but you needed someone like that to make it work. Not an inexperienced recent failure who's spread to thin. Blame him all you want but Bill gave him the keys to a stick car knowing Patricia couldn't drive it like the best in the world. Like Patricia could have been successful, sure but do we really think that's the best guy if we're objective. Not hindsight either I mean again there's 50 guys in the NFL/college you could name with experience, track record and specific expertise in that space so this was always a big risk.


The RB room is one of the best in the league even after the past few weeks. This team should absolutely be running over, through and around defenses with the RB Corp we have. Obviously the line has held the attack back a lot. Wynn has not handled the switch well at all. It was visibly effecting the depth step/slide and initial focus on the edge. His hands weren't bad but everything was off. Brown has definitely lost a step and doesn't fire off enough consistent quick twitch reps and it's showing up on false starts and poor weight transfer after his first step. That's been his biggest strength actually, length a strong second but that first step allows his to properly use and distribute all that size and length to the right spaces and bodies. Strange has been good overall. You want someone who flashes rare traits when you draft an IOL that early. We haven't seen that but Strange has been pretty good. I think he could be more efficient with his steps when pulling. Do a better job locating and putting hands on his targets but he's also improved along the way. Handling power, handling games up front. He's been good.


It's just been a ****tshow with the regression of some, injuries causing bodies to move. Some of the techniques used you wouldn't see with Scar here.


Mac hasn't been the biggest problem on this offense but has played poorly by himself. There's no getting around - he panics when pressure is closing in. I saw it very rarely in college. Saw it last year and it's continued on this year. Some of the plays are unnecessary and bonehead. This has absolutely nothing to do with Patricia. His footwork has been poor and release point inconsistent. Again nothing to do with Patricia. They were issues he went to House for and predated Fat Matt. The pre snap penalties. Missing easy passes. Pouty face and chirping. Mac hasn't played well and hasn't handled adversity well at all. Again he's the least of the problems but this isn't what you expect from the 15th overall pick who was a high ceiling/low floor, NFL ready prospect.


All these moves and subsequent results go back to decisions made by Bill. He's done some amazing things for this franchise but we can't let that blind us present day. From the players to coaches, we've become mediocre, sloppy and predictable. We're not as talented on the field and spread to things on the sidelines. Could you imagine describing us like that even 5 years ago?


Biggest offseason coming up in a long time. Fans should put the petty differences aside like "team mac" or w/e and hold who's in charge accountable. Pointing 1000 fingers everywhere isn't productive and exactly what the big shots want you to do. We know where the buck stops and need to be tough. Sending a clear message this isn't acceptable with the resources we've used, expectations set and one of the most expensive tickets in sports.

Some recent teams with a year 3 QB on a rookie deal spending sprees:

2020 Bills

• Trade for WR Stefon Diggs
• Sign DT Quinton Jefferson 2 years 13.5 million
• Sign DT Vernon Butler 3 years 15 million
• Sign DE Mario Addison 3 years 30 million
• Sign OT Daryl Williams 3 years 24 million

2022 Bengals

Sign OG Alex Cappa 4 years 35 million
Sign C Ted Karras 3 years 18 million
Sign OT La'el Collins 3 years 21 million

2022 Chargers

Trade for DE Khalil Mack
Sign CB J.C. Jackson 5 years 82 million
Sign DT Austin Johnson 2 years 14 million
Sign DT Sebastian Joseph-Day 3 years 24 million
Sign TE Gerald Everett 2 years 12 million

2022 Dolphins

Trade for WR Tyreek Hill
Sign OT Terron Armstead 5 years 75 million
Sign C Connor Williams 2 years 14 million
Sign WR Cedrick Wilson 3 years 22 million
Trade for DE Bradley Chubb (midseason)

The template is there. 2-3 starters in FA & a trade for a gamechanger on offense. I've said in other threads that the defense is 2 players away (LB & physical CB) from being one of the best defenses in the NFL. Bentley has taken the next step & they drafted two CBs that can play. Get Tavai to LB3 & a taller CB next to the Joneses & they'll be in business. That's where I'd start in FA.

CB Jamel Dean - A 6'1" man CB who's had a breakout season. 50% comp. pct against & 74.1 rating against. He's not really a ballhawk but that's where Jack Jones will come in.
LB Bobby Okereke - Sideline to sideline 3 down LB. Has played well vs. pats recently.

Without breaking the bank the pats D would be set & arguably their most talented since 2014:

EDGE Josh Uche
DT Christian Barmore
DT Davon Godchaux
EDGE Matt Judon

LB Bobby Okereke
LB Ja'Whaun Bentley

CB Jamel Dean
CB Jack Jones
slot CB Marcus Jones

S Adrian Phillips
S Kyle Dugger

top reserves: Guy, Wise, Tavai, Mills

Uche post breakout, Barmore year 3, speed at LB & Bryant out of the lineup? Throw in versatility with Mills playing CB or S & the D is pretty good.

They would then have remaining cap space & 1st, 2nd, 3rd & three 4ths to acquire a tackle & #1 option in the passing game. I'm optimistic that Bourne, Parker & Thornton can be complimentary WRs with BOB as the OC.

Should be doable with their resources. Big offseason coming no doubt.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Some recent teams with a year 3 QB on a rookie deal spending sprees:

2020 Bills

• Trade for WR Stefon Diggs
• Sign DT Quinton Jefferson 2 years 13.5 million
• Sign DT Vernon Butler 3 years 15 million
• Sign DE Mario Addison 3 years 30 million
• Sign OT Daryl Williams 3 years 24 million

2022 Bengals

Sign OG Alex Cappa 4 years 35 million
Sign C Ted Karras 3 years 18 million
Sign OT La'el Collins 3 years 21 million

2022 Chargers

Trade for DE Khalil Mack
Sign CB J.C. Jackson 5 years 82 million
Sign DT Austin Johnson 2 years 14 million
Sign DT Sebastian Joseph-Day 3 years 24 million
Sign TE Gerald Everett 2 years 12 million

2022 Dolphins

Trade for WR Tyreek Hill
Sign OT Terron Armstead 5 years 75 million
Sign C Connor Williams 2 years 14 million
Sign WR Cedrick Wilson 3 years 22 million
Trade for DE Bradley Chubb (midseason)

The template is there. 2-3 starters in FA & a trade for a gamechanger on offense. I've said in other threads that the defense is 2 players away (LB & physical CB) from being one of the best defenses in the NFL. Bentley has taken the next step & they drafted two CBs that can play. Get Tavai to LB3 & a taller CB next to the Joneses & they'll be in business. That's where I'd start in FA.

CB Jamel Dean - A 6'1" man CB who's had a breakout season. 50% comp. pct against & 74.1 rating against. He's not really a ballhawk but that's where Jack Jones will come in.
LB Bobby Okereke - Sideline to sideline 3 down LB. Has played well vs. pats recently.

Without breaking the bank the pats D would be set & arguably their most talented since 2014:

EDGE Josh Uche
DT Christian Barmore
DT Davon Godchaux
EDGE Matt Judon

LB Bobby Okereke
LB Ja'Whaun Bentley

CB Jamel Dean
CB Jack Jones
slot CB Marcus Jones

S Adrian Phillips
S Kyle Dugger

top reserves: Guy, Wise, Tavai, Mills

Uche post breakout, Barmore year 3, speed at LB & Bryant out of the lineup? Throw in versatility with Mills playing CB or S & the D is pretty good.

They would then have remaining cap space & 1st, 2nd, 3rd & three 4ths to acquire a tackle & #1 option in the passing game. I'm optimistic that Bourne, Parker & Thornton can be complimentary WRs with BOB as the OC.

Should be doable with their resources. Big offseason coming no doubt.

Keep posting the good stuff!!

Very much agree overall. I think we're on the same page. Big fans of Bobby O and Dean.

 

[patsfanfromoversea]

 

[patsfanfromoversea]

 

[patsfanfromoversea]

 

[patsfanfromoversea]