Game Day Thread Official Post Game Thread- Giants @ Pats

[DaBruinz]

Next you will be watching to see Lil Jordan Humphreys as a deep threat? Meyers was a UDFA for a reason - he is slow. A deep threat like Thornton? Not in a million years. I am not hating on Meyers, being realistic. Meyers is great underneath and will never be a deep threat.

What Toofy was saying is that he wants to see how Meyers plays underneath when the team has Deep Threats like Thornton and Parker to help open up the field.

 

[DaBruinz]

Yeah, I heard he’s taking on the James White role

That just means that the Pats could add someone else if there is an injury at RB to one of D.Harris, Stevenson, Strong, & K. Harris.

I think that Montgomery adds a lot to STs as well as being a RB/WR. I think that he'll be a Bolden/White replacement.

People knocking K. Harris need to review what he had for an O-line. I'd like to see what he does with the top O-line in front of him. Not the guys who are more than likely headed to the Unemployment lines or, at best, the PS..

 

[DaBruinz]

The Z role in the offense has never been a prolific TD scorer. Edelman averaged 4.5 as a starter. Meyers had 2 last year, and was unlucky vs the cowboys to have his 1st called back. Should be 3

Mac Intentionally seeks him out in “gotta have it” moments. Not sure where the empty stats narrative came from.

4/5 - 4thDown (Led Team and top 10 in nfl)

19/25 - 3rd down (led team and Top 10 in NFL)

2/2 - 2 point conversion ( Led Team and NFL)

On the 3rd/4th downs, are those conversions or just catches?
One of the things that I've noticed is that Meyers 1st downs have gone down each year despite being the lead receiver.

Last year, Mac picked went to him more often because he didn't feel comfortable to go deep OR the O-line was caving, forcing Mac to go to his check-down.

A lot will depend on the O-line. If the addition of Strange at LG and the change to Onwenu at RG with the tackles swapping sides solidifies the Oline so that it's above average, then Mac will be able to go to Agholor, Parker, Bourne, and Thornton deep. If not, then we'll see a rehash of last year where it's almost always on the receiver to catch and make a play to try and get the extra yardage vs. just beating the CB and catching it in stride.

 

[oceansizer]

I can see lots of positives after the game. However Wilson and Jennings make me happy the most. By and large our LBs look faster and more decisive. Jennings to me seemed to be quite slow but during the Giants game he looked much better. Also Uche had some moments ( I think this season he will show his potential eventually ).

 

[Pape]

I would want them to offer him an extension...

extend him? why?

 

[mikey m]

I'm not in the pro Meyers crowd, but I'm definitely not in any hurry to trade him either. I like him as a chain mover. I would just like to see his targets cut in half from last year's 128. Regardless of his dependability and Mac's trust, that is too many targets to only produce 866 yards and 2 TDs. If he's getting 100+ targets this year, I believe that does in fact limit the offense.

 

[Rbrt16]

On the 3rd/4th downs, are those conversions or just catches?
One of the things that I've noticed is that Meyers 1st downs have gone down each year despite being the lead receiver.

Last year, Mac picked went to him more often because he didn't feel comfortable to go deep OR the O-line was caving, forcing Mac to go to his check-down.

A lot will depend on the O-line. If the addition of Strange at LG and the change to Onwenu at RG with the tackles swapping sides solidifies the Oline so that it's above average, then Mac will be able to go to Agholor, Parker, Bourne, and Thornton deep. If not, then we'll see a rehash of last year where it's almost always on the receiver to catch and make a play to try and get the extra yardage vs. just beating the CB and catching it in stride.

These are Conversions. His aDOT has gone down every year, but that’s likely a factor of playing with cam and a rookie QB.

First downs have gone up every year.
19 - 17
20 - 37
21 - 42

 

[Rbrt16]

I'm actually getting tired of pointing out that Meyers is mediocre. I get he's a hero for many of you. He's a good WR3 but got too many targets last year for too little impactful production. But this will be my last post dissing Meyers.

The "empty yards" comment stems from my observation of his poor DYAR and DVOA, where he was 70th and 71st respectively:

2021 Wide Receivers | Football Outsiders

www.footballoutsiders.com

That means his completions didn't help much to win games. As an example, I calculated his TD/catch % last year from that data. He had a 1.59% TD percentage, 78th out of the 90 qualifying WR's. Despite his good size, great hands, and short area burst, he gets erased in the end zone.

Along those lines, he actually set the NFL record for starting a career with the most receptions not generating a TD. *Any* other receiver would have done better with those opportunities. He's just not a playmaker.

Bourne, on the other hand, was first in DVOA last year. I'm sure you noticed that he made lots of plays with the ball in his hands of the kind that Meyers just can't.

But look, being the 70th best receiver in the NFL means that Meyers deserves a job in the NFL as a WR3 at least. He's not terrible. My complaint is that he gets too many targets for a guy who can't do anything with the ball in his hands.

Not sure about the hero part, but he is my younger brother. So I’m admittedly biased. I don’t intend to change your mind, but I enjoy these debates nonetheless.

I’ve been following along here sense April 2019, and truly believe you all do a great job with the site. Pats fans are definitely passionate, and even the trash talkers keep it decent.

I’m the first person to admit that plays were left on the field last year. In fact he mentioned it last year in an interview that I’m his biggest critic.

1 Miami week 1 Bad throw but catchable ball

2 Miami week 1 Jmac knocked away a deep ball

3 Texans deep ball drop

4 Colts slot fade Drop

5 Saints 4 and 1 Fade from goal line

6 Jets slot fade knocked away

For every bad play I can list 3 where he made a winning playa.

I know you were focused on what he does as pass catcher , but I think it’s worth it to mention the intangibles he brings too. The Pats coaches value them more than any other team.

Durability- hasn’t missed a game or practice in 3 years

Professionalism - always says the right thing. Never seeks attention

Selflessness- Lead blocker on a chunk of Running plays digging out LBs that outweigh him by 50+lbs. Vrabel highlighted him as the best blocking WR

Work ethic - UDFA that earns his reps every year over Vets, High priced FA, and High draft picks.

Clutch- is listed the 2pt conversions, 3rd downs, and 4th downs on an earlier post.

Toughness - routinely takes big hits and holds on to “ empty stat receptions “ across the middle of field.

IQ- called out blitzes at line for mac and primary hot read
On the field, the production was impressive despite what FO thinks. The 26 year old in his first full season as a starter earning < 1M annually produced :
> +20 plays than all Pats player(RB/WR/TE)

16 WR NFL in receptions

29 WR NFL in Yards

2 TDs

2/2 2Ps

2.4% Drop Rate

19/25 First downs

4 /5 4th down

Overall I thought KB and Kobi played well as the two top targets. First time since ‘17 two pats guys went over 800 yards, and 1/ 11 teams with two WR over 800 yards last season. This pats team did it while averaging the 7th fewest pass attempts per game.

With that being said I still don’t understand the criticism of Kobi. If he truly is undeserving of the targets, Mac, Josh, or the “playmakers” that did not get open should receive most of your criticism.
The pats don’t run a lot of manufactured or schemed touches for kobi. (I agree that’s not a strength of his game, and it makes sense why they don’t.) Nor is he a high draft pick rookie or expensive FA acquisition. All of his targets are earned by #16 winning on routes and making tough catches downfield.

Maybe I don’t understand DVOA well enough, but I don’t believe it accounts for one the most important parts of being a WR.
The team at FO only tracks plays where the WR is targeted. It doesn’t take into account plays where a player runs a route but isn’t able to get open. This skews the rankings to players that are dynamic with the ball, but doesn’t detract for being a poor route runner.

Naturally, this would limit how well Jakobi would rank given his strengths and weaknesses as a player.
Another issues I’ve found with DVOA is that it doesn’t account for what the other players on the team are doing. Great example is the 40 yard catch KB had vs the titans. It started off as a 6 yard completion, and, thanks to a timely block by kobi, became a 40 yard TD. Huge DVOA boost for KB

Conversely Kobi had a 25 yard TD catch and run called back. He did everything right, but didn’t receive any +Dvoa because of a hold by a teammate 30 yards away.
I don’t love any of the Analytics sites, but it is worth noting that PFF ranked him as a top 25 WR in 2020 and top 35 in 21.

Long post, but hopefully that all make sense. I’m adding a few notable WR DVOA rankings below as well. Does the same logic apply to these players? DK metcalf ranked 60th. Is he barely a WR2 that produces empty stats and deserves less targets?Also what’s the ranking cutoff to qualify as a “playmaker”?

Kendrick Bourne - 1

Byron Pringle - 2

Brandon Cooks 44

AJ Brown -51

Terry Mccluarin - 52

Stefon Diggs - 53

Dk Metcalf - 60

Kennan Allen - 61

Diontae Johnson - 65

Allen Robinson -69

Jarvis Landry - 71

Jakobi Meyers - 72

DJ Moore - 73

Odell Beckham -76

Hollywood Brown - 78

Calvin Ridley - 82

Kenny Golladay - 84

 

[catent]

I’m rather ambivalent when it comes to Meyers but I think the ways he helps the team outweigh his limitations. His skill-set is not redundant relative to the other WRs on the team, and the areas in which he’s limited (athleticism, speed, YAC) are relative strengths of several other WRs (Bourne, Agholor, Thornton).

I think he has a spot on the roster and agree that having guys around him who can stretch the field vertically should open up more for Meyers.

 

[Kasmir]

I'm actually getting tired of pointing out that Meyers is mediocre. I get he's a hero for many of you. He's a good WR3 but got too many targets last year for too little impactful production. But this will be my last post dissing Meyers.


Not sure about the hero part, but he is my younger brother. So I’m admittedly biased. I don’t intend to change your mind, but I enjoy these debates nonetheless.

I’ve been following along here sense April 2019, and truly believe you all do a great job with the site. Pats fans are definitely passionate, and even the trash talkers keep it decent.

I’m the first person to admit that plays were left on the field last year. In fact he mentioned it last year in an interview that I’m his biggest critic.

1 Miami week 1 Bad throw but catchable ball

2 Miami week 1 Jmac knocked away a deep ball

3 Texans deep ball drop

4 Colts slot fade Drop

5 Saints 4 and 1 Fade from goal line

6 Jets slot fade knocked away

For every bad play I can list 3 where he made a winning playa.

I know you were focused on what he does as pass catcher , but I think it’s worth it to mention the intangibles he brings too. The Pats coaches value them more than any other team.

Durability- hasn’t missed a game or practice in 3 years

Professionalism - always says the right thing. Never seeks attention

Selflessness- Lead blocker on a chunk of Running plays digging out LBs that outweigh him by 50+lbs. Vrabel highlighted him as the best blocking WR

Work ethic - UDFA that earns his reps every year over Vets, High priced FA, and High draft picks.

Clutch- is listed the 2pt conversions, 3rd downs, and 4th downs on an earlier post.

Toughness - routinely takes big hits and holds on to “ empty stat receptions “ across the middle of field.

IQ- called out blitzes at line for mac and primary hot read
On the field, the production was impressive despite what FO thinks. The 26 year old in his first full season as a starter earning < 1M annually produced :
> +20 plays than all Pats player(RB/WR/TE)

16 WR NFL in receptions

29 WR NFL in Yards

2 TDs

2/2 2Ps

2.4% Drop Rate

19/25 First downs

4 /5 4th down

Overall I thought KB and Kobi played well as the two top targets. First time since ‘17 two pats guys went over 800 yards, and 1/ 11 teams with two WR over 800 yards last season. This pats team did it while averaging the 7th fewest pass attempts per game.

With that being said I still don’t understand the criticism of Kobi. If he truly is undeserving of the targets, Mac, Josh, or the “playmakers” that did not get open should receive most of your criticism.
The pats don’t run a lot of manufactured or schemed touches for kobi. (I agree that’s not a strength of his game, and it makes sense why they don’t.) Nor is he a high draft pick rookie or expensive FA acquisition. All of his targets are earned by #16 winning on routes and making tough catches downfield.

Maybe I don’t understand DVOA well enough, but I don’t believe it accounts for one the most important parts of being a WR.
The team at FO only tracks plays where the WR is targeted. It doesn’t take into account plays where a player runs a route but isn’t able to get open. This skews the rankings to players that are dynamic with the ball, but doesn’t detract for being a poor route runner.

Naturally, this would limit how well Jakobi would rank given his strengths and weaknesses as a player.
Another issues I’ve found with DVOA is that it doesn’t account for what the other players on the team are doing. Great example is the 40 yard catch KB had vs the titans. It started off as a 6 yard completion, and, thanks to a timely block by kobi, became a 40 yard TD. Huge DVOA boost for KB

Conversely Kobi had a 25 yard TD catch and run called back. He did everything right, but didn’t receive any +Dvoa because of a hold by a teammate 30 yards away.
I don’t love any of the Analytics sites, but it is worth noting that PFF ranked him as a top 25 WR in 2020 and top 35 in 21.

Long post, but hopefully that all make sense. I’m adding a few notable WR DVOA rankings below as well. Does the same logic apply to these players? DK metcalf ranked 60th. Is he barely a WR2 that produces empty stats and deserves less targets?Also what’s the ranking cutoff to qualify as a “playmaker”?

Kendrick Bourne - 1

Byron Pringle - 2

Brandon Cooks 44

AJ Brown -51

Terry Mccluarin - 52

Stefon Diggs - 53

Dk Metcalf - 60

Kennan Allen - 61

Diontae Johnson - 65

Allen Robinson -69

Jarvis Landry - 71

Jakobi Meyers - 72

DJ Moore - 73

Odell Beckham -76

Hollywood Brown - 78

Calvin Ridley - 82

Kenny Golladay - 84

Wow, how embarrassing. I was already feeling overexposed in my criticism of your brother, but now I feel like a fool. Your presence here is chastening and as lesson to all of us who might be too free with our attacks here on players.

In my defense, I have consistently said that your brother is certainly a legitimate NFL receiver; even if he is only #70 that's still a #2 or #3 receiver.

That said, your point about Football Outsider's system not directly crediting a receiver for getting open is a good one. I have no affiliation with them, but in pursuit of objectivity their methods are deliberately dependent on official box score data, which records targets but is silent on why a receiver was targeted or not targeted.

I also have a question for you: do you think the reason that your brother is not getting red zone targets is schematic? I would think with his obvious skills he'd be very effective in the red zone.

The other point I'll say as part of my recantation is that your brother deserves credit and support for his ongoing transition from QB to WR. While he is obviously a quick study, I'm sure he's still learning his new craft and is far from reaching his ceiling.

Thanks for speaking up; I will now be a committed fan.

 

[Mike the Brit]

The amount of drops is not what the poster is implying. The question is, what drops is the poster referring to that was "memorable" or had an effect on the game?

Yeah. Meyers' drops are memorable because they are rare!

 

[jah]

I'm actually getting tired of pointing out that Meyers is mediocre. I get he's a hero for many of you. He's a good WR3 but got too many targets last year for too little impactful production. But this will be my last post dissing Meyers.

The "empty yards" comment stems from my observation of his poor DYAR and DVOA, where he was 70th and 71st respectively:

2021 Wide Receivers | Football Outsiders

www.footballoutsiders.com

That means his completions didn't help much to win games. As an example, I calculated his TD/catch % last year from that data. He had a 1.59% TD percentage, 78th out of the 90 qualifying WR's. Despite his good size, great hands, and short area burst, he gets erased in the end zone.

Along those lines, he actually set the NFL record for starting a career with the most receptions not generating a TD. *Any* other receiver would have done better with those opportunities. He's just not a playmaker.

Bourne, on the other hand, was first in DVOA last year. I'm sure you noticed that he made lots of plays with the ball in his hands of the kind that Meyers just can't.

But look, being the 70th best receiver in the NFL means that Meyers deserves a job in the NFL as a WR3 at least. He's not terrible. My complaint is that he gets too many targets for a guy who can't do anything with the ball in his hands.

Meyers is not the 70th best receiver and Bourne is not the #1 WR in football.

Yards between the 20s matter. First downs matter.

Meyers can and probably should be WR3. There is a solid possibility of that happening with the current group of players.

The bottom line is, whatever flaws he might have, I'd much rather have him than Wilkerson or Nixon.

 

[Kasmir]

Meyers is not the 70th best receiver and Bourne is not the #1 WR in football.

Yards between the 20s matter. First downs matter.

Take it up with Football Outsiders. It's what their model shows for contributions of the Mac/Bourne 2021 targeting. All models of course are only indirectly coupled with reality, but FO's system attempts to correlate box score data with winning and is as predictive of results as any system I know of. Receiver DVOA is an as targeted per play effectiveness measure BTW. The Mac to Bourne connection as measured was very efficient per play last year, but its overall productivity in their model was only 14th.

I personally find results of proven objective model runs at least as interesting as the bloviations of fans and trolls. So I appreciate an objective measurable result like Mac to Bourne last year -- which probably was as much about Mac as about Bourne anyway.

 

[long distance]

I love football but the NFL is making it hard to watch. Taunting calls are ridiculous. If you can't stand someone discussing your birthright or other disgusting remarks, go play marbles. The Wieland penalty was unbelievably ridiculous. Terrific play, textbook tackle, penalty. They are ruining the game.

As a proud member of marbles team i must protest and assure you we can handle every disgusting remark you can come up with!

 

[upstater1]

Any guy who caught that many balls from Cam Newton in 2020 is a very good receiver. How many receivers in the league do you think can do that?

 

[long distance]

I'm actually getting tired of pointing out that Meyers is mediocre.

You're hiding it quite well : )

 

[1960Pats]

I didn't see a whole lot in Zappe. Needs work on his throwing mechanics and his arm strength is below NFL caliber. Too many passes were inaccurate or underthrown. The TD was a nice play by Humphrey, good concentration while losing his balance... a good DB with better awareness probably defends that pass.

Speaking of DBs, I often wonder why there are so few in the NYFL who can run and look back for the ball. The WRs do it.

 

[Zuma]

Patriots Coaching Situation Put David Andrews In Unique Role Vs. Giants

David Andrews was seen coaching up Patriots offensive lineman, which added to the team's unique coaching situation.

nesn.com

 

[Pats2000]

That's because they weren't running the new offense last night...except for a couple of plays.

I dont know that they are only going to run that "new offense" it sounds like they are installing in addition too and cutting down the fat. I doubt we'll see the Patriots come out and only run plays Circa the 2018 Rams

 

[Pats2000]

Speaking of DBs, I often wonder why there are so few in the NYFL who can run and look back for the ball. The WRs do it.

The WR knows where he is going the DB doesn't, although they should turn the second the recieversl turns