What are you expecting from Mac Jones this season?

[Pats1971]

I think all the people who say that Jones has a relatively low ceiling are going to eat their words. They figured that since his mental skills were more polished than most, but didn't have the physical skills that he couldn't improve all that much more. If Jones was in his good to great shape coming into the NFL, I might have agreed, but he was not in shape coming into the NFL. People look at Justin Fields, Zach Wilson, and Trey Lance and say that since they have awesome physical skills, but are lacking in the mental aspects of the game that they have a higher ceiling because those can be learned. But I will argue that it is far easier for Mac Jones to get into shape and work on his throwing mechanics than it will be for Fields, Wilson, and Lance to learn how to process defenses quickly, identifying the open receiver, etc. Jones always have the potential of getting stronger and leaner. This league has been littered for decades with QBs with amazing physical gifts who never get the mental part of the game.

I don't have any numbers that I think Jones will do, but I fully expect the guy to have a significant sophomore leap. I also think some of his struggles last year later in the season might have been due to injuries and the rookie wall. I don't think he will do a Joe Burrow type of jump especially since he doesn't have an elite #1 WR like Burrow had last year with Chase. But I think he will be a top 10 QB possibly closer to 5 than 10.

Nobody knows what he is or what he will be. History shows that there is a chance he will never rise to a level to make him an all time great because there are just not that many. He is way early in his career. He has not shown enough of anything that says what he will be and its meaningless for anyone to say he will bust, but its also meaningless to say he will be an all time great, becuase despite popular belief, both sides are pretty represented on pats boards.

 

[Pats1971]

There is no way Giselle would date a loser and that's what Brady would have been had he not won those early super bowls and become a star. He himself said that if it weren't for the Tuck Rule play he would have been a backup in 2002. People wouldn't know Tom Brady from Greg Brady.

This is actually a more stupid take than your last take on this same thread. Very impressive that you one up yourself.

 

[Rob0729]

Nobody knows what he is or what he will be. History shows that there is a chance he will never rise to a level to make him an all time great because there are just not that many. He is way early in his career. He has not shown enough of anything that says what he will be and its meaningless for anyone to say he will bust, but its also meaningless to say he will be an all time great, becuase despite popular belief, both sides are pretty represented on pats boards.

Where did I say he would be an all time great? I said I think he will be a top 10 QB this year. That isn't even an 2022 great. That is a 2022 very good and nowhere on the all time great list.

All I am saying he has a higher ceiling than a lot of people give him credit for and possibly higher than some of the QBs drafted before him. But many players never come even close to their ceiling. But Jones was labeled a high floor, low ceiling prospect coming out of college by a lot of people. I think they may be wrong.

 

[Kasmir]

All I am saying he has a higher ceiling than a lot of people give him credit for and possibly higher than some of the QBs drafted before him.

Yeah all the QB's before him apparently also have a higher ceiling than Tom Brady too because they have stronger arms and legs.

These idiotic QB "ceiling" arguments are focused on physical attributes only and completely ignore everything else -- when "everything else" is what really matters in a QB.

So which of the QB's picked before Mac have higher ceilings than he does in the non-physical attributes that are all important to a QB?

 

[venecol]

I really appreciate this post. Amazing how they break that down. But like most of these deeply analytical stats you have to also consider the CONTEXT of what went into that play. BUT they do provide him several areas where can improve. Areas that I didn't even knew existed before your ppst. BTW if my vertical receivers can get slightly less than TWO yds separation and my QB can't get the ball to him on a regular basis, then I'm going to need a new QB.

Agreed. It's key for him to improve on deep passes outside the numbers. After the bye teams came here saying they would force him to beat them in that area. He was unable to.

So lets give Mac a reasonable chance to develop, though with all the Polian passing rules changes, it i is certainluy an easier path for Mac to develop.

Sure but guys like Herbert and Burrows were way better in their 2nd year. Mahomes was great from the start.

This team WILL be better offensively given we are improved at all the skill positions. Better at WR with the additions of Parker and Thornton PLUS a year's familiarity with the vets we brought back. BETTER at TE with a year more familiarity with the entire room. Better at RB with now at LEAST 3 RB's who are good receiving guys. (White, Harris and Stevenson)

All true but it appears they may be implementing a new/different system with entirely new cast of offensive coaches (aside from Caley). Now it appears the goal is to streamline and simplify concepts but if it's true they're going to more of an OZB scheme, from what I've read, it requires a lot of experience and detail that our coaching staff doesn't have (barring Bill). The scheme does help the QB (see JimmyG) so there's that.

I think the OL has the INDIVIDUAL talent to be pretty good. But it will be a BIG question mark until we actually see it in action But that is an unanswerable question at this time. Unfortunately it is question we won't really know the answer to until the middle of October. Until then it will be a CONSTANT discussion point and 3 preseason games will NOT give us an answer, just an INDICATION of what's happening. Of course health will have a big presence in answering those questions.

The OL is key in the OZB running schemes. I'm excited to see how it all plays out with a rookie, a vet playing a position he's never played before, and a back-up guy becoming the starter. That's a lot of changes for an OL from 1 year to the next, on top of the new scheme & coaches. It'll be interesting for sure.

So overall I tihnk the entire offense will be improved and Mac will improve because its the SUM of all the pars that make an offense go.

In theory they should improve. However, the QB sophomore slump isn't entirely a myth. I suspect that after having a year worth of film on a rookie QB that was never seen before, teams/coaches can adapt to make their 2nd year more challenging. And it's not like the other teams in the conference didn't get better. Many added a bunch of top talent skill players either through FAcy or the draft (moreso than the Pats imo). Even more telling are the strengthening of defenses across the conference from talented DEs to secondaries improving. This to me means we need to score 30+ avg ppg, and not by stacking 50+ points in a handful of games, but by consistantly scoring. It also requires stopping the opponents with top 10 QBs, skill players from scoring more than 30+ points. Objectively speaking it'll be a challenge.

The defense on the other hand is a horse of a different color. So many questions. eiill the DL be stouter this year, DO we have enough talent in the secondary. And the most interesting question of all for me is WILL the transition from bulk to speed at the ILB position work to our benefit.

Agree, way too many unanswered questions, particularly as you say in the ILB position. It'll be curious to see how they incorporate all of our hybrid safeties, by far our most talented and deep unit (w/ RB a close second). When you look at the list of top talent receivers we'll be facing, the secondary gives me nightmares.

 

[Rob0729]

Yeah all the QB's before him apparently also have a higher ceiling than Tom Brady too because they have stronger arms and legs.

These idiotic QB "ceiling" arguments are focused on physical attributes only and completely ignore everything else -- when "everything else" is what really matters in a QB.

So which of the QB's picked before Mac have higher ceilings than he does in the non-physical attributes that are all important to a QB?

In today's day and age, the prototypical QB that people think will be elite are in the Josh Allen/Patrick Mahomes mode of a superior athlete with a cannon arm who can run and throw on the run. All four QBs drafted before Jones fit that mold as far as potential. None of them have shown they have the mental aspect of the game just yet.

The ironic thing is the last two Super Bowl winners (four of the last five) and both participants were either pocket passers or at least closer to that type of QB than what everyone thinks is the prototypical QB of today. Only Mahomes really fits that bill as a Super Bowl winner/participant.

 

[Pape]

In today's day and age, the prototypical QB that people think will be elite are in the Josh Allen/Patrick Mahomes mode of a superior athlete with a cannon arm who can run and throw on the run. All four QBs drafted before Jones fit that mold as far as potential. None of them have shown they have the mental aspect of the game just yet.

The ironic thing is the last two Super Bowl winners (four of the last five) and both participants were either pocket passers or at least closer to that type of QB than what everyone thinks is the prototypical QB of today. Only Mahomes really fits that bill as a Super Bowl winner/participant.

Josh Allens career was saved by the Bills adding Stefon Diggs... til he got there, he was going no where, and was heading there pretty quickly

 

[venecol]

In all fairness to the QBs picked ahead of Mac, there's a reason those teams were at the top of Rd 1: Jacksonville & Jete, enough said. I wonder how Mac had done with those two dumpster fires.

Both Lance & Fields were taken by trade ups, but the Bears? With that atrocious OL? Again, how would Mac have faired with the Bears and Nagy?

The only one that doesn't have an excuse is Lance, who's probably a bust anyway.

 

[Kasmir]

In today's day and age, the prototypical QB that people think will be elite are in the Josh Allen/Patrick Mahomes mode of a superior athlete with a cannon arm who can run and throw on the run. All four QBs drafted before Jones fit that mold as far as potential. None of them have shown they have the mental aspect of the game just yet.

All of that physical excellence is certainly nice to have, but is secondary to "mental/intangible" attributes for QBs. As Napoleon said, "The moral is to the physical as three is to one". Assuming all QB's have the same ceiling in those attributes is foolish. Projections are much more easily made for physical ceilings because they are more measurable, but assessing QB's potential only on physical attributes is like a drunk only looking for his keys under the streetlight.

What Belichick wrote in Cleveland in 1991 sums up the intangibles well:

#1 is to make good decisions -- then arm, size, physically tough, leadership, guys look up to and have confidence in, a real competitor. Accurate rather than guy with a cannon. Emphasis on our game will be on decision, timing, accuracy -- guy needs to be confident, intelligence is important but not as much so as field awareness & judgment. Can't be sloppy fundamentally unsound guy with ball handling, [techniques] etc.

Brady exemplifies those attributes.

Does anyone seriously believe Mac has a lower ceiling for those attributes than any of the QB's taken before him?

 

[Rob0729]

In all fairness to the QBs picked ahead of Mac, there's a reason those teams were at the top of Rd 1: Jacksonville & Jete, enough said. I wonder how Mac had done with those two dumpster fires.

Both Lance & Fields were taken by trade ups, but the Bears? With that atrocious OL? Again, how would Mac have faired with the Bears and Nagy?

The only one that doesn't have an excuse is Lance, who's probably a bust anyway.

I think it is safe to say he would have done better than Wilson on the Jets. Wilson was a big part of the problem because he always held onto the ball too long and always wanted to make the big homerun pass rather than taking the quick play. And with his crappy o-line, it was a bad mix. Some think he had issues seeing over the line (he is an inch shorter than Jones).

Didn't watch enough of Chicago to say whether he would do better.

I would assume Lawrence would have done well in New England last year and Jones would have struggled as much or more than Lawrence. But Lawrence is supposed to be a generational talent.

 

[venecol]

All of that physical excellence is certainly nice to have, but is secondary to "mental/intangible" attributes for QBs. As Napoleon said, "The moral is to the physical as three is to one". Assuming all QB's have the same ceiling in those attributes is foolish. Projections are much more easily made for physical ceilings because they are more measurable, but assessing QB's potential only on physical attributes is like a drunk only looking for his keys under the streetlight.

What Belichick wrote in Cleveland in 1991 sums up the intangibles well:



Brady exemplifies those attributes.

Does anyone seriously believe Mac has a lower ceiling for those attributes than any of the QB's taken before him?

Passing game has changed A LOT since 1991.

 

[venecol]

I think it is safe to say he would have done better than Wilson on the Jets. Wilson was a big part of the problem because he always held onto the ball too long and always wanted to make the big homerun pass rather than taking the quick play. And with his crappy o-line, it was a bad mix. Some think he had issues seeing over the line (he is an inch shorter than Jones).

Didn't watch enough of Chicago to say whether he would do better.

I would assume Lawrence would have done well in New England last year and Jones would have struggled as much or more than Lawrence. But Lawrence is supposed to be a generational talent.

Yea, Wilson may be a bust as well. He did seem to improve as the year went on. They got him a lot of weapons and shored up the OL, so this year should tell.

 

[sb1]

Wiley and Acho both rank Mac 9/10 on their second year QB confidence scale. Love it. Acho thinks the Patriots will win more games in 2022.

They are REALLY down on Trey Lance. "One Play Trey".. yikes

 

[Rob0729]

Yea, Wilson may be a bust as well. He did seem to improve as the year went on. They got him a lot of weapons and shored up the OL, so this year should tell.

He couldn't get much worse than he was pre-injury. But the guy had only one game with over a 90 Passer Rating. One game. He really didn't do much post injury other than dial down the INTs. He was still a mediocre QB. He had three passing TDs in the last five games. He just didn't have any INTs after 9 INTs in his first five games.

 

[patfanken]

Sure but guys like Herbert and Burrows were way better in their 2nd year. Mahomes was great from the start.

THE best attribute I liked about Mac coming in was my #1 demand for a QB coming into the Pats. That was that he be a psychotic competitor, because that is who we had for 20 years. Brady literally willed himself into being the Goat and Mac has shown that he has THAT same kind of temperament and approach to the game. Brady showed great improvement between his rookie year and 2001 (obviously) I don't see how Mac can't improve when he had about 1000 more snaps and 520 more passing snaps than Brady going into their 2nd year.

All true but it appears they may be implementing a new/different system with entirely new cast of offensive coaches (aside from Caley). Now it appears the goal is to streamline and simplify concepts but if it's true they're going to more of an OZB scheme, from what I've read, it requires a lot of experience and detail that our coaching staff doesn't have (barring Bill). The scheme does help the QB (see JimmyG) so there's that.

Not and entirely new group. You forgot that Sunsieri, TBrown, and Billy Yates were all coaching the offense last year though I do. think it will be Caley that will be groomed to be in his ear this season. Certainly not ideal, but not nearly as dire as yoiu think.

The OL is key in the OZB running schemes. I'm excited to see how it all plays out with a rookie, a vet playing a position he's never played before, and a back-up guy becoming the starter. That's a lot of changes for an OL from 1 year to the next, on top of the new scheme & coaches. It'll be interesting for sure.

We've started rookies for years on our OL, so I'm not worried too much about Strange's development (Andrews Thuney and Mason started as rookies and they are just the recent rookie starters) Owenu shown more than just flashes of being an effective OLman and Brown and W have shown that can both be good when they are healthy. Its definitely a concern, but it could be a lot worse

new offense and new blocking system questions (I accidently deleted this section, sorry)

The Pats have been primarily a power blocking team with a lot of double teams and OGli's pulling and FB's leading the last few years, but its not like zone blocking has never been part of the offense. And I think all the talk of new offenses systems, new OL blocking schemes and streamlined play calling could be "much ado about nothing" like a lot of stabs in the dark this dead time of year.

Remember that teams go through the evolution of their semantics every year, trying to make it both clearer AND more terse. I can recall hours of discussions over the year about the best ways to call plays and defenses and that was back in the 70's in HS. And every now and then we'd have a QB read a LB or DB to determine where the ball might go, but NO one had their receiver reading coverages back then...

That's why I'm not as concerned about who the play caller is going to be because SO much of what the the play on the field becomes happens AFTER the QB gets to LOS and sees what the defense is presenting. Motions can change, routes can change and even the play can change. So much of the games in in the QB's hands now, the play caller becomes less relevant. What McDaniels was great at was the play DESIGNING during the week. Personally I never thought he was an exceptional game day play caller..

I can see why they want to perhaps look at an outside zone scheme. Wynn, Strange and Andrews are all plus athletes for OLmen. THey could very well excel in that scheme That's why I have mentioned doing zone stuff on the left side while going power on the right with Brown and Owenu being plus power guys with Strange being the perfect pulling G to that side. Just a thought

Agree, way too many unanswered questions, particularly as you say in the ILB position. It'll be curious to see how they incorporate all of our hybrid safeties, by far our most talented and deep unit (w/ RB a close second). When you look at the list of top talent receivers we'll be facing, the secondary gives me nightmares.

Very curious to see how the D evolves We have 3 plus guys on the DL in Barmore Guy and Judon and a VERY strong S group, and personally I am THRILLED to see all that speed at the ILB position. Lots of wholes too, but you never know how things will turn up. Flowers and Hicks are both still available you know (I think) Lets see how the roster fills out over the next 30 days before camp starts.

 

[Rob0729]

I don't know if this true, but if it is, the entire 49ers front office needs to fired if Trey Lance doesn't turn into at least a decent starter this year. ​

NFL Coach Thinks Fans Persuaded 49ers to Draft Trey Lance over Mac Jones in 2021​

San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan doesn't seem like someone who cares about outside noise, but at least one opposing coach thinks the team's decision to select Trey Lance in the 2021 NFL draft was driven by fan pressure.

According to ESPN's Jeremy Fowler, an offensive coach on an NFC team believes the 49ers were "100 percent taking" Mac Jones at No. 3 overall "until they saw their fanbase [overreact]."

One month before the 2021 draft, the 49ers sent three first-round picks and a third-round pick to the Miami Dolphins in exchange for the No. 3 overall selection.

NBC Sports' Peter King wrote prior to the draft that Shanahan "believes Jones is the accurate coach-on-the-field type he craves."

The NFC coach's comment is interesting because King noted in the same article that Shanahan and general manager John Lynch "won’t care what order the draftniks have the quarterbacks, or any position."

King cited San Francisco's 2017 draft board that had Solomon Thomas and Reuben Foster as the Nos. 2 and 3 overall players, behind only Myles Garrett.

Amid rumors that Jones was the 49ers' preferred choice, fans of the team didn't exactly respond with enthusiasm.

In September, ESPN's Adam Schefter reported "one of the many reasons" San Francisco made the move was the belief that the New England Patriots could trade up to No. 3 to draft Jones.

"The 49ers considered the well-documented relationship between Bill Belichick and Nick Saban and knew that New England was doing legwork on the quarterback prospects in the draft," Schefter wrote.

Shanahan and Lynch seemed to take pleasure in keeping which quarterback they preferred a closely guarded secret.

Per Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area, neither Lynch nor Shanahan "explicitly" told the other which quarterback they preferred six days before the draft.

Lynch said he told Shanahan the decision would be up to him. Shanahan eventually told him Monday, three days before the first round.

"Man, I didn’t know, Coach," Lance told Shanahan on the phone when the quarterback was informed the 49ers were selecting him, per Maiocco. "You wouldn’t tell me nothing."

It still remains to be seen if the 49ers made the right decision. Jones had a promising rookie season with the Patriots, who didn't have to move off the No. 15 pick to select him. He led New England to the postseason, throwing for 3,801 yards and 22 touchdowns to finish second in Offensive Rookie of the Year voting.

Lance spent most of his rookie season learning behind Jimmy Garoppolo. The 22-year-old showed promise with 603 passing yards, 168 rushing yards and accounted for six touchdowns in six games (two starts).

 

[sb1]

I don't know if this true, but if it is, the entire 49ers front office needs to fired if Trey Lance doesn't turn into at least a decent starter this year. ​

NFL Coach Thinks Fans Persuaded 49ers to Draft Trey Lance over Mac Jones in 2021​

San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan doesn't seem like someone who cares about outside noise, but at least one opposing coach thinks the team's decision to select Trey Lance in the 2021 NFL draft was driven by fan pressure.

According to ESPN's Jeremy Fowler, an offensive coach on an NFC team believes the 49ers were "100 percent taking" Mac Jones at No. 3 overall "until they saw their fanbase [overreact]."

One month before the 2021 draft, the 49ers sent three first-round picks and a third-round pick to the Miami Dolphins in exchange for the No. 3 overall selection.

NBC Sports' Peter King wrote prior to the draft that Shanahan "believes Jones is the accurate coach-on-the-field type he craves."

The NFC coach's comment is interesting because King noted in the same article that Shanahan and general manager John Lynch "won’t care what order the draftniks have the quarterbacks, or any position."

King cited San Francisco's 2017 draft board that had Solomon Thomas and Reuben Foster as the Nos. 2 and 3 overall players, behind only Myles Garrett.

Amid rumors that Jones was the 49ers' preferred choice, fans of the team didn't exactly respond with enthusiasm.

In September, ESPN's Adam Schefter reported "one of the many reasons" San Francisco made the move was the belief that the New England Patriots could trade up to No. 3 to draft Jones.

"The 49ers considered the well-documented relationship between Bill Belichick and Nick Saban and knew that New England was doing legwork on the quarterback prospects in the draft," Schefter wrote.

Shanahan and Lynch seemed to take pleasure in keeping which quarterback they preferred a closely guarded secret.

Per Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area, neither Lynch nor Shanahan "explicitly" told the other which quarterback they preferred six days before the draft.

Lynch said he told Shanahan the decision would be up to him. Shanahan eventually told him Monday, three days before the first round.

"Man, I didn’t know, Coach," Lance told Shanahan on the phone when the quarterback was informed the 49ers were selecting him, per Maiocco. "You wouldn’t tell me nothing."

It still remains to be seen if the 49ers made the right decision. Jones had a promising rookie season with the Patriots, who didn't have to move off the No. 15 pick to select him. He led New England to the postseason, throwing for 3,801 yards and 22 touchdowns to finish second in Offensive Rookie of the Year voting.

Lance spent most of his rookie season learning behind Jimmy Garoppolo. The 22-year-old showed promise with 603 passing yards, 168 rushing yards and accounted for six touchdowns in six games (two starts).

I don't see Lance falling to us in that scenario so I wonder who we go with at QB if Mac was gone. Mills would have been a massive reach in round 1. Trade up for Fields? Yikes. Another season of Cam? Yikes X 2.

To think we actually got Mac for free.

 

[sb1]

Where did I say he would be an all time great? I said I think he will be a top 10 QB this year. That isn't even an 2022 great. That is a 2022 very good and nowhere on the all time great list.

All I am saying he has a higher ceiling than a lot of people give him credit for and possibly higher than some of the QBs drafted before him. But many players never come even close to their ceiling. But Jones was labeled a high floor, low ceiling prospect coming out of college by a lot of people. I think they may be wrong.

The reins were tight on Mac last year. I believe that cost us the Bucs game at least. The Bills were also 20 or so yards away from this costing us the wind game and and a playoff spot.

I want to see the reins loosened in 2022. No more 3 pass games. Let's see what we really have at QB and then we'll have a better idea about him.

Also want to see what he's really got in cold weather. He's a Jacksonville kid. Brady was amazing in the cold and it was a real advantage for the home team in Foxboro and on the road in northern or midwest cities in December and January.

 

[Pats2000]

Another thread going in a weird direction but anyways....

If you want to make that assumption, then you can assume Bill doesn't win much either (if anything). In fact, you also assume he wouldn't have lasted much longer after his 5-13 start.

Dan Marino was cooked by that point, but they still managed a winning record each season and going to the divisional round of the playoffs twice. Johnson put together an awesome defense, but his downfall was failing to put anything worthwhile to help out a deteriorating Marino.

He went 5-13 with a newly signed $100M QB in Drew Bledsoe.

Aside from a fluke year with Plumber, he was also bad in Denver post Elway.

Not rookies, but these are the last players that Bill drafted that made the Pro Bowl/All Pro during their tenure outside of a punter (Jake Bailey 2020) and Mac Jones (2021):

Chandler Jones (drafted in 2012) and Jamie Collins (Drafted in 2013) who both made the Pro Bowl it in 2015. Collins made 2nd team All Pro in 2015. Donta' Hightower (drafted in 2012) made Pro Bowl in 2016 and 2nd team All Pro.

But your point stands that not many impact Pro Bowl/All Pro type players have been drafted by Bill in a long time.

and yet BB is top 10 all time for drafting pro bowl players

Active GMs with best record of drafting Pro Bowlers

For all the grief Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones receives when it comes to his football acumen, guess which NFL decision-maker has drafted the highest percentage of Pro Bowl players? It's Jones -- 14.7 percent of his draftees (34 of them) have made a

www.nfl.com

 

[Rob0729]

The reins were tight on Mac last year. I believe that cost us the Bucs game at least. The Bills were also 20 or so yards away from this costing us the wind game and and a playoff spot.

I want to see the reins loosened in 2022. No more 3 pass games. Let's see what we really have at QB and then we'll have a better idea about him.

Also want to see what he's really got in cold weather. He's a Jacksonville kid. Brady was amazing in the cold and it was a real advantage for the home team in Foxboro and on the road in northern or midwest cities in December and January.

I think not being use to the cold is only a factor for players who play in warm cities. Sure Jones is from FL and played in AL, but he should get used to the cold by playing and practicing in it every day. People get acclimated to the climate they live in. It isn't like you are born with a gene or are totally conditioned to only be adaptable to the climate you were raised in.

It would be different if he was the Dolphins QB and had to travel to Foxboro, NJ, or Buffalo for games and not being acclimated to the cold.

Brady is a great cold weather QB because of his playing style and skill set. Not because he he can handle the cold better than others. Although being in a cold weather area made it easier for him to handle the cold. And I wonder if he is as good as he used to be in the cold now playing in Tampa. The only game I can remember him playing in the really cold since he moved to Tampa was against the Packers in the NFCCG and he had three INTs and only completed 55.6% of his passes in that game (he did have three TDs although one was an eight yard drive). Last year, he got the Jets in NJ in an unusually warm day in the mid 50s in December.