DRAFT Cole Strange-Welcome to the Pats

[Kasmir]

Thanks for engaging with me. I know you are vastly more knowledgeable about football in general than I am, and you are a hero of mine wrt to draft analysis. I am both honored and unworthy

99% of the time there's no such thing as a "riser" or "faller". It just doesn't work like that. Almost all the time it's bc of injury or character grade and might change if new info becomes available like anyone else but guys don't drop multiple rounds or "shoot" up the board. It's just that the media doesn't find about it until later. I've tried preaching this forever but it's the same thing more or less with "reaches" & "steals".

I agree completely that "risers" and "faller" are also constructs of the draftnik ecosystem and teams don't care about such designations at all. They care as you say about their proprietary knowledge of injury situations or psych profile info gained in pre-draft interviews. They also care about leaning from combines, pro-days, and events like the senior bowl. They just don't care about what draftniks think.

"Draftniks" are relevant, actually important, whether people want to acknowledge it or not. Obviously not everyone, it's an oversaturated market but some are very useful.

To us (including the Patriots media), you are hugely useful and probably irreplaceable. To the Patriots you have next to no value as they have far more information than you do. Other teams that are running scared may pay more attention to folks like you because their afraid to deviate from fan expectations of the draft, which is where you are much more important than the team.

They're the first look, a baseline on prospects long before the NFL puts a value on them. And if you play that out to it's conclusion the consensus board hit almost 85% of the top 150 drafted this past draft and has been very close in the past. That's pretty excellent considering.

It is impressive, and very useful and entertaining. Clearly draft prediction is a game in itself, somewhat analogous to Fantasy Football in that it is fun for fans and largely irrelevant to teams that are not drafting scared.

Without that exposure though fans wouldn't know Jordan Richards was a terrible pick, for example. They'd be in the dark and basically just have to take the teams word for it as to why the drafted someone that high or drafted them at all.

There would be no draft weekend for sure. No one would know those day 2/3 picks. Everyone drafted gets a little piece on then, some highlights. Draft geeks will have done that 100 times over by draft day so the audience watching knows names from online. Kiper, McShay and those guys only have like two three months of draft talk whereas I already have a good grasp on the next two classes and do it year round.

I don't pay attention to most of the people out there. The ones i do is for background info. I barely go on Twitter anymore and don't care about the people on there except a handful of people. Not my thing but draft geeks are very useful if you think about.

Completely agree.

Mayock was well liked but never good at evaluating talent tbh. Great entertainment, again everyone loved hearing him talk but if you looked back on who he was pounding the table for you'd see some gods awful picks. He was really good at keeping things interesting and would speak his mind but I don't ever remember hearing people talk about how good he was as an evalautor tbh. What's funny is Gruden might be worse. He was terrible too. Ill never forget him screaming for Johnny Football as a top 5 pick. Both were terrible.

Obviously Mayock's public reputation as a draftnik was good enough to ludicrously get him a job as a GM at a team that was running scared. You may have indeed known he was a buffoon, but public reputation far too often has nothing to do with actual competence -- certainly when projecting to an only distantly related job.

I think the best of the best on the "outside" or "amateurs" would do just as well if not better given the chance tbh. Obviously a small, select few.

You could use the AV score from pro football reference to gage how you've done if you're smart. @TB_Helmet looked into it a few years back.

"Still trying to figure out the best way to do it. I still like if we take the average AV per game played for a player, rank all players from first to last, then take the first 320 players and say they should have been first rounders, the second 320 players as second rounders, etc. Then we could do the same for your numbers, and see how far off on average you were.

For example, Aaron Donald is a first rounder by AV (he's one of the top 320 guys for sure), and he's at the top of your list, so you get a 0. But let's say Sam Darnold is in the second round according to AV, and you had him in the first round, you get a -1. So you want to be as close to 0 as possible, and we could say "on average you predicted guys to within n rounds of where they should have been taken". That's nice because you can compare against other people who make grades, and you can compare against where they were actually taken. Darnold was taken in the first round, so the NFL gets a -1 for that too.

"I'm not sure that's the best way but it's a start."

I think you need to be very thoughtful about value measures if you want to be relevant to teams. For instance career value may not matter to a team if they can't take advantage of it. Also, I think the quantification the draftnik community does is very primitive. If I see another evaluation of drafting performance that fails to quantify comparative success across team, I will vomit-- again. And I think the community is largely ignorant about even rudimentary statistical analysis despite its obvious relevance. And maybe some teams are competent at data mining, but I see no evidence of that from the draftnik community.

"You and the NFL are about equal at evaluating players, with a very slight edge to the NFL."

"The last table on the right is a sum of number of times each value in the "bgcDiff" column appears compared to the "nflDiff". So you picked 236 players exactly (round difference of 0) compared to 261 for the NFL. The average round miss is 1.41 for you and 1.33 for the NFL -- these are essentially the same."

You know I'm sure you're probably right that the NFL should recruit more folks like you (although Mayock's failure doesn't help).

I also am amazed that PFF ended up creating a vibrant NFL customer base given how reviled they are by so many fans as being amateurs. I think similar success with teams for the draftnik community might be to establish a consortium of competent draftniks that emerges into a Blesto like organization while still serving fans. If you believe you and a carefully chosen group of fellow experts could organize, I think rather than just being hugely important to fans and media, you could have real impact on teams!

 

[captain stone]

Which is why I said I would have preferred they reached for Metchie. Absent the ACL tear 44 isn't too early. Once he's back to full health he'll have bigtime potential as an NFL slot receiver. His floor is much higher than Thornton's in my opinion.

Without question.

 

[BTTA]

I think the best of the best on the "outside" or "amateurs" would do just as well if not better given the chance tbh. Obviously a small, select few.

You could use the AV score from pro football reference to gage how you've done if you're smart. @TB_Helmet looked into it a few years back.

"Still trying to figure out the best way to do it. I still like if we take the average AV per game played for a player, rank all players from first to last, then take the first 320 players and say they should have been first rounders, the second 320 players as second rounders, etc. Then we could do the same for your numbers, and see how far off on average you were.

For example, Aaron Donald is a first rounder by AV (he's one of the top 320 guys for sure), and he's at the top of your list, so you get a 0. But let's say Sam Darnold is in the second round according to AV, and you had him in the first round, you get a -1. So you want to be as close to 0 as possible, and we could say "on average you predicted guys to within n rounds of where they should have been taken". That's nice because you can compare against other people who make grades, and you can compare against where they were actually taken. Darnold was taken in the first round, so the NFL gets a -1 for that too.

"I'm not sure that's the best way but it's a start."

"You and the NFL are about equal at evaluating players, with a very slight edge to the NFL."

"The last table on the right is a sum of number of times each value in the "bgcDiff" column appears compared to the "nflDiff". So you picked 236 players exactly (round difference of 0) compared to 261 for the NFL. The average round miss is 1.41 for you and 1.33 for the NFL -- these are essentially the same."

I appreciate your thoughtful answer here. And @TB_Helmet 's research.

Looking at it more deeply, post draft analysis of success in relation to draft position assumes that players are treated the same once they are drafted, and given equal opportunity to succeed.

That goes against everything we know about how humans operate in organizations. The more hope and reputational capital invested in a new hire, the more resource, forgiveness, and grace period that person gets. This is so deeply seated in our psyche's as humans that we invent ideas like "the level playing field" to convince ourselves otherwise. This is true throughout organizational life, in every sector, and has been well documented for the business world. It isn't popular because leadership and self delusion is too frightening a topic for most people to look at directly.

Players are going to be given a chance to succeed based on how they were acquired. We can't help this, no matter what systems we put in place. The Pats are one of the best at giving players a chance regardless of how they came to the team, but I'd offer that they can't overcome more than 10% of our natural desire to prove ourselves right by having our favorite personnel choices turn out correctly.

Bottom line to me is that any system that evaluates where a player was picked, with how well a player did in the NFL, is by nature so biased by the above that it is fundamentally flawed. For most sports fans, that's too upsetting a principle to consider.

 

[Fixit]

Are we calling him Blocktor Strange yet, or what?

 

[cupofjoe1962]

*ROFLMAO* Yep. Poor Value. Just because YOU say so.. LOL . Get real. Unless you became Ms. Cleo overnight you're talking out your rear end when it comes to your statement regarding player evaluations.

Where did you play football?

You seem to consider yourself an expert & I am curious.

Where did you play?
Where you ever a coach?
Or
Do you just play Madden?

 

[DaBruinz]

Where did you play football?

You seem to consider yourself an expert & I am curious.

Where did you play?
Where you ever a coach?
Or
Do you just play Madden?

I consider myself well informed, but no expert. I also use facts. YOU. You are the one who thinks he's god's gift to the Patriots forums and that his opinion can't be challenged. Your the one who runs his mouth spewing garbage and can't admit to being wrong regardless of how many people show you the REALITY that contradicts your spewing. Your the one who calls anyone who disagrees with your unsupported posts "Kool-Aid" drinkers.

But please. Continue to run your mouth and never admit to being wrong when it's proven otherwise. You were WRONG about the WRs when you claimed they were "the worst in the league" and you're wrong now. Everyone else sees the facts that show your arguments to be ridiculous.

As usual, you want to derail the thread because of your ego.

 

[cupofjoe1962]

I consider myself well informed, but no expert. I also use facts. YOU. You are the one who thinks he's god's gift to the Patriots forums and that his opinion can't be challenged. Your the one who runs his mouth spewing garbage and can't admit to being wrong regardless of how many people show you the REALITY that contradicts your spewing. Your the one who calls anyone who disagrees with your unsupported posts "Kool-Aid" drinkers. Regardless of whether or not the opinion is in line with what the Patriots are actually doing.

But please. Continue to run your mouth and never admit to being wrong when it's proven otherwise. You were WRONG about the WRs when you claimed they were "the worst in the league" and you're wrong now. Everyone else sees the facts that show your arguments to be ridiculous.

Just as I thought

You never played or coached Football
Your a Madden player who posts other peoples stats.

I am not surprised…..

 

[DaBruinz]

Just as I thought

You never played or coached Football
Your a Madden player who posts other peoples stats.

I am not surprised…..

You're wrong. But that's nothing new.

I don't "post other people's stats". I use facts and reality. Something you can't be bothered with.

You flat out lied in the WR thread and got burned for it. You lied in the UDFA thread. You're spewing garbage here.

 

[cupofjoe1962]

You're wrong. But that's nothing new.

I don't "post other people's stats". I use facts and reality. Something you can't be bothered with.

You flat out lied in the WR thread and got burned for it. You lied in the UDFA thread. You're spewing garbage here.

What did I lie about

Saying the Lions & Jets have better receivers than the Pats

I was basing my view on talent of young players vs stats of Meyers

Look at their talent after the draft.
They both have a better receivers than the Pats and after the draft, it is not even close.

The Patriots were rated #29 in the Team WR rankings & New Orleans & GB who
We’re #30 & #31 both picked first round WR’s & could be ahead of the Pats now.

Power ranking the top NFL wide receiver trios for all 32 teams

Having high-quality wide receivers is critical to regular and postseason success in the NFL. We rank the top 32 WR trios in the NFL today.

nflspinzone.com

 

[DaBruinz]

What did I lie about

Saying the Lions & Jets have better receivers than the Pats

I was basing my view on talent of young players vs stats of Meyers

Look at their talent after the draft.
They both have a better receivers than the Pats and after the draft, it is not even close.

The Patriots were rated #29 in the Team WR rankings & New Orleans & GB who
We’re #30 & #31 both picked first round WR’s & could be ahead of the Pats now.

Power ranking the top NFL wide receiver trios for all 32 teams

Having high-quality wide receivers is critical to regular and postseason success in the NFL. We rank the top 32 WR trios in the NFL today.

nflspinzone.com

Everything you just said was a LIE. The discussion took place long before the draft. And no, you didn't say you were basing your view on "talent of young players vs stats of Meyers" (another lie by you).

THIS is how you started:

2022 Free Agent Receivers - Will the Patriots Target One?

we have a thread on every bum in the NFL whos available....but nothing on Cole Beasley....at least on the front page....is this bc he's not jabbed? Beasley is everything Mac Jones needs.... is the boo hoo Corona crew not willing to have a guy like Beasley? so true. The guy is tough like JE11...

www.patsfans.com

We definitely need to upgrade our receivers
We have had the worst group of receivers in the NFL the last 2 seasons.

We need a speedy player that can play at WR.

Agholor is not the answer.
He reminds me of Dorsett, a speedy player who isn’t much of a contributor

Note the DATE: March 16. Over 45 days before the draft.
Note that you mention NOTHING about the "talent of young players".

It's was only after @BaconGrundleCandy schooled you that you started your laughable spin campaigns. Ones that myself and several others showed you to be a farce.

So, now you pull some BS website out of your ass that you never referred to before as some way to justify your garbage., This is pure SPIN on your part. Not to mention that "power rankings" are a complete OPINION and not factual in any way, shape or form. It's the equivalent of a monkey throwing poop at the stock market pages. Though I thing the monkey would get some things right.

Go back to the WR thread. You were schooled by NUMEROUS people who have far more football intelligence than I do. The only thing I did was show you to be wrong.

As for LIES, you lied about the Patriots receiver rankings from PFF. You lied when you claimed I said that the Pats receivers were better than AZ. You lied when you said there were people who claimed the Patriots didn't need an upgrade.

2022 Free Agent Receivers - Will the Patriots Target One?

Why? I didn’t like Bledsoe, because he was dumb on the field. I believe he is a smart man, but he made a ton of bonehead plays. Example….. Patriots have the ball in 2000 season inside the 10 yard line with less than a minute to play. I believe this was vs the Jets. They had a 1st down...

www.patsfans.com

The problems with lies is trying to remember what you've said. And you've bene caught in numerous ones. Not just by me.

 

[cupofjoe1962]

Everything you just said was a LIE. The discussion took place long before the draft.

So, now you pull some BS website out of your ass that you never referred to before as some way to justify your garbage., This is pure SPIN on your part. Not to mention that "power rankings" are a complete OPINION and not factual in any way, shape or form.

Go back to the WR thread. You were schooled by NUMEROUS people who have far more football intelligence than I do. The only thing I did was show you to be wrong.

As for LIES, you lied about the Patriots receiver rankings from PFF. You lied when you claimed I said that the Pats receivers were better than AZ. You lied when you said there were people who claimed the Patriots didn't need an upgrade.

2022 Free Agent Receivers - Will the Patriots Target One?

Why? I didn’t like Bledsoe, because he was dumb on the field. I believe he is a smart man, but he made a ton of bonehead plays. Example….. Patriots have the ball in 2000 season inside the 10 yard line with less than a minute to play. I believe this was vs the Jets. They had a 1st down...

www.patsfans.com

The problems with lies is trying to remember what you've said. And you've bene caught in numerous ones. Not just by me.

Just to make your day, I started a thread on our #29 ranked WR

 

[DaBruinz]

Just to make your day, I started a thread on our #29 ranked WR

Of course you did. Because you're that much of a Troll. You can't accept being wrong, so you pulled some no name farcical website out of your rear end that no one has heard of and act like someone's opinion is FACT.

 

[cupofjoe1962]

Of course you did. Because you're that much of a Troll. You can't accept being wrong, so you pulled some no name farcical website out of your rear end that no one has heard of and act like someone's opinion is FACT.

Only a Belichick ball washer couldn’t see the limitations of our WR.

 

[DaBruinz]

Only a Belichick ball washer couldn’t see the limitations of our WR.

The problem with you is that plenty of people saw the "limitations" but used actual FACTS to justify their positions. YOU literally lied about everything.

So, you claiming someone is a "Belichick Ball Washer" just because they called you out on your lies just shows how completely pathetic you truly are.

 

[Zuma]

We have 4 WR’s that have had anywhere between 800-1200 yards receiving in a single season. The biggest loser is the 5th receiver who has no yards at all yet he still remains on the team! Losers all.

 

[Ring 6]

So the answer is you know nothing. As I figured.

 

[cupofjoe1962]

The problem with you is that plenty of people saw the "limitations" but used actual FACTS to justify their positions. YOU literally lied about everything.

So, you claiming someone is a "Belichick Ball Washer" just because they called you out on your lies just shows how completely pathetic you truly are.

Correct me where I am wrong…..

No I am calling you a Belichick ball washer because you kiss his arse & defend every foolish draft picks he has made through the years.

You think Belichick has done a good job drafting DB’s in the second round through the years.

You support his choices.
I think he has done better with his UDFA DB’s than his DB choices in the second round.

Some people even suggested Jordan Richards was not a 2nd round bust because he was in the league as a specials teams player for 7 years.

I think a 2nd round pick who is an average specials team player is a bust.

 

[cupofjoe1962]

We have 4 WR’s that have had anywhere between 800-1200 yards receiving in a single season. The biggest loser is the 5th receiver who has no yards at all yet he still remains on the team! Losers all.

How many touchdowns did they score last year?

Are you satisfied with 10 total touchdowns from our top 3 starting WR?

 

[DaBruinz]

How many touchdowns did they score last year?

Are you satisfied with 10 total touchdowns from our top 3 starting WR?

I already provided your stupidity with a list showing how many teams were WORSE than the Patriots. Just because I'm not "satisfied" with something doesn't mean the "receivers are the worst in the league" or that they are "bottom of the barrel".

You're problem, besides all the lying, is that you don't understand that people can disagree with your assessment and still think an area can improve.

 

[Zuma]

How many touchdowns did they score last year?

Are you satisfied with 10 total touchdowns from our top 3 starting WR?

And that bum rookie QB should go as well! I am hoping he has an even worse 2022 !