DRAFT Patriots select WR Tyquan Thornton at 50.

[jah]

I don't see us dumping Agholor this year because of guaranteed money, but it is curious how similar this guy seems to Agholor as far as his potential role. I wonder if the plan is to play Agholor this year then have Thornton take over the role in 2023.

 

[BUSTAMOVE]

It's like this every year. Fans think by studying dozens of draft rags and take what "experts" say as gospel makes them well-versed in player evaluations and insiteful on draft-day dynamics. Then when the pick is made they behave as if draft picks are money they've lent to a friend to pay bills only when the buddy blows it on meth.

Every pick after Rd1 pick 15 has a 65-70% failure rate or higher.

I think most don't know that.

I sit shaking my head
Team after team pass on these players that they want. Reason being is they have spent hours on top of hours researching, interviewing, having them in for visits. They all know what intangibles that they need to fit their system and team chemistry
Just because Mel Kiper or some other hack draft guru has some other player higher because they watched 2 hours of film on them. Then all those teams must be wrong

 

[upstater1]

This video shows more of Thornton's abilities. It's pretty impressive:

 

[Love The Drake]

I don't see us dumping Agholor this year because of guaranteed money, but it is curious how similar this guy seems to Agholor as far as his potential role. I wonder if the plan is to play Agholor this year then have Thornton take over the role in 2023.

Harry is definitely being traded today for something.
I see the Patriots adding either Romeo Doubs or Slade Bolden today.
Nelson could get traded but I’d like to see him on the team due to the cap.
Unless one of Doubs or a player like Wilkinson beats him out.

 

[upstater1]

I sit shaking my head
Team after team pass on these players that they want. Reason being is they have spent hours on top of hours researching, interviewing, having them in for visits. They all know what intangibles that they need to fit their system and team chemistry
Just because Mel Kiper or some other hack draft guru has some other player higher because they watched 2 hours of film on them. Then all those teams must be wrong

It's also hard for most to account for factors that the NFL guys take into account. For instance, what is Baylor's offense like? Who is their QB? If he's bad, the offense might be limited. That will not only impact a WRs production, but the types of routes and play calls. And then there's the conference factor. That works against Baylor kids. The Big12 doesn't play defense.

A lot of variables here that the gurus probably can't account for.

 

[jah]

Harry is definitely being traded today for something.
I see the Patriots adding either Romeo Doubs or Slade Bolden today.
Nelson could get traded but I’d like to see him on the team due to the cap.
Unless one of Doubs or a player like Wilkinson beats him out.

The room is already pretty crowded at this point, I think another addition means both Agholor and Harry have to go. We already have Meyers, Bourne, Parker, Agholor, Thornton, Harry and you really only need 4 non-ST, non-return specialist receivers on a roster, 5 at most.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Harry is definitely being traded today for something.
I see the Patriots adding either Romeo Doubs or Slade Bolden today.
Nelson could get traded but I’d like to see him on the team due to the cap.
Unless one of Doubs or a player like Wilkinson beats him out.

Parker's durability is a concern. I'm resigned to the fact he will miss time this year but when he does play he'll do well. I think they'll need 5 WRs on the roster.

I'm not sure Harry has value anymore. Seems to me he's nothing more than a conditional 7th or possibly put on waivers this week or next.

If traded to say LV Pats will need to eat some of Agholor's $.

Jones might also be an option for a few plays on O

 

[Steve102]

this guy must be one hell of a gunner or an emergency punter for Bill the GM to overreach 2 round for this fella

Dude. 4.28. Tyreek Hill is 4.29. Now, before you have a seizure, I am not saying this kid is going to be Tyreek Hill. But he is the fastest WR in the draft. Speed is never a reach, I don't care what the talking heads say. Eff 'em.

 

[Steve102]

Harry is definitely being traded today for something.

Bro, he's not. He's getting released. Maybe not today, but no one is going to give you anything for this guy. I know you want him gone so bad you can taste it, but bro... it ain't happening. I wouldn't be surprised to see him on the field in August.

 

[Sfpat]

Image the meltdown this board would have had had the Pats selected Cooper Kupp in the first round when he was coming out

 

[jdlboot14]

Thornton has the natural blaze that looks easy like Moss or Desean Jackson. He also has impressive body control and hands.
If Judge doesn't screw him up, or Patricia try to change him, he could be a great weapon for Mac. Just let the kid play!

We've been wanting this kind of pick for years, so here it is. Please don't jinx him!

 

[DaBruinz]

4.28 40 (4.21 unofficial) & can run routes. Dynamic! Hopefully he can pick up the system. Josh Gordon also went to Baylor, where their route tree is known to be pretty limited & he was able to grasp the terminology. He can block & throw the football as well. Love the pick.

As I mentioned before, in the highlight videos posted, I watched Thornton run Flys, Ins, Slants, Posts, and Corners. I didn't see Curls, Outs, and comebacks. I think that is by design. You keep him moving because he just flies by people. But I saw nothing that said that Thornton couldn't those other routes.

I think that the idea that Baylor's playbook was limited was true under Briles. But he's been gone, in disgrace, since 2015. They're on their 3rd coach since then.

 

[venecol]

Mac may not ever be as good as Brady but he does seem to like to throw the deep ball more, and throws a good one, and this kid looks like he's open deep a lot.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Image the meltdown this board would have had had the Pats selected Cooper Kupp in the first round when he was coming out

This is exactly why you don't pay attention to the scouting reports that are online. The experts pegged Kupp as an "eventual starter" and an above average receiver. Then they said Davante Adams was a poor man's version of Michael Crabtree. Those guys are headed to the HOF.

 

[Uptown]

Not worried about Thornton’s hand size. Deion Branch had 8 1/8 inch hands.

 

[Jim Beankie]

Lance Zierlein had Thornton slated at 55 so in no sense is the Pats taking him at 50 an overdraft/reach. You wanted speed. You got speed. Great pick

It's nuts that year after year people talk about reach. Value is in the eye of the beholder, and we're basically dealing with a complicated First Price Sealed Bid Auction -ish system where teams don't know how much (how high) another team is going to bid (as we all know). The Patriots have had to bid/price a round earlier for the same prospect over the last few decades because they've been so darn good for so long. If the Patriots believe another team (and it only takes 1) values someone in the 2nd, if they really want the player, then they'd pretty much have to get them in the 1st, especially when they were picking in the high 20s/low 30s consistently for years. We've basically had 2 decades of prospects with 1st Rnd expectations but with 2nd Rnd value for almost all other teams (and so on for the later rounds). That's why last year's draft felt so much darn easier to get perceived value for the fan/analysts (well, that and BB didn't suck / got lucky / actually did his job ).

Here's BB's track record for picking in the top half of the 1st round. How many GMs have had 100% success like this, especially with the high rates of injury?

Seymour 6 HoF
Warren 13 All Pro
Mayo 10 All Pro
Mac 15 Pro Bowl 1st year (super alternate tho)

I guess the next question would be why not trade up all the time? Fair question. Sure, he could prob get All Pros close to every year by trading into the top 5-15, but he'd basically have no other picks left if trying to go from 30, especially since NE's picks are at the ends of rounds. Look at Detroit's recent bold trade: (#12 & #46 for #32, #34, #66). For the typical Pats scenario over the last few decades, the Pats would prob have to give up their 1st 4 picks (#32, #64, #96, #128) to get that (actually, according to calcs, you'd have to give up all your picks). BB's not a high roller like that. He knows this is hard and the margin of error would be slim and a miss would be catastrophic.

Why am I writing all this and not trimming the overgrown Yew?

 

[zipster9]

So the issue for him by analysts is that he is SKINNY, 181-ish lbs.

Well, if he bulks up say, 10lbs of muscle, doesn't that potentially SLOW him down a bit?

 

[ivanvamp]

So the issue for him by analysts is that he is SKINNY, 181-ish lbs.

Well, if he bulks up say, 10lbs of muscle, doesn't that potentially SLOW him down a bit?

Sure. And then if he adds 10 pounds of muscle, maybe he runs a 4.38 instead of a 4.28. I mean, 4.38 is still ELITE speed.

 

[Uptown]

So the issue for him by analysts is that he is SKINNY, 181-ish lbs.

Well, if he bulks up say, 10lbs of muscle, doesn't that potentially SLOW him down a bit?

Understandable; but even if it does, what’ll he run then? A 4.3? Lol..I’ll take it.

 

[Urgent]

It's like this every year. Fans think by studying dozens of draft rags and take what "experts" say as gospel makes them well-versed in player evaluations and insiteful on draft-day dynamics. Then when the pick is made they behave as if draft picks are money they've lent to a friend to pay bills only when the buddy blows it on meth.

Every pick after Rd1 pick 15 has a 65-70% failure rate or higher.

I think most don't know that.

Sure.
But the Patriots performance has been well below league average the past five or more years.
The Patriots have made some odd choices that fans questioned at the time, and the failure of those perceived reaches certainly raises questions when other reaches are made.

The Patriots drafted Derek Rivers and Antonio Garcia in 2017. They have no starters from that draft.
The Patriots have two players remaining from the 2018 draft, Wynn and Bentley. Featured Duke Dawson in the second.
The 2019 draft featured a reach for Harry in the first over the higher "expert"-rated players Deebo Samuel, Terry McLaurin, DK Metcalf, etc. JoeJuan Williams in the second, who has made the team. An active third with three players, Winovich, Harris, and Cajuste. Their best pick was punter Jake Bailey in the fifth.
2020 delivered Duggar, a good third safety behind McCourty & Philips, Uche, a rotational edge player, Jennings who's done nothing, two TE's who struggle to make the team, and the first kicker drafted. There was a lot of complaining from the fans about selecting Rohrwasser over more highly-rated "expert" kickers, and Rohrwasser didn't make the team.

So over the 2017-2020 period, where there has been time to evaluate, the best players drafted are Wynn, Bentley, Harris, Bailey, Duggar, and Uche. Not a lot of Pro Bowl representation there. Three positional starters; four if you count Duggar, and a good punter.

Sure, Belichick has access to much more data than fans who read reviews from the experts. But generally those reaches just haven't worked. And now we are seeing a lot more reaches.