NFL Free Agency 2022 edition

[RobertWeathers]

We won’t know the downside until those bills start coming due. They lost a number of players this year.
In 2024 they have 160 mill cap hit for 6 players.
The beginning of the process is not hard, but you are pushing a lot of money back.
If they didn’t have Donald and Kupp, those moves would not have won them anything.

Those 6 players that count 160 mill in 2024 only counted 56 mill in 2021 (I’m using Robert woods in the Robinson spot).
So working now and working when those few guys cost 100 mill more may be a very different equation.

This is where the philosophy of the mid-round players being successful and economically friendly comes into play.

...but they had Donald and Kupp. So what?

Rams are also betting the cap continues to go up and the deals can be restructured.

 

[Ring 6]

This is where the philosophy of the mid-round players being successful and economically friendly comes into play.

...but they had Donald and Kupp. So what?

Rams are also betting the cap continues to go up and the deals can be restructured.

But you can’t just say you want mid round picks to be good ones and have it happen.
The inference was other trans would copy. They didn’t win the SB just because of trading picks for players.

Sure but 6 players taking 160 mill is a ton regardless of how the cap increases. Again, the point being you can’t judge the result of kicking the can down the road until you get to the can.

 

[venecol]

This is where the philosophy of the mid-round players being successful and economically friendly comes into play.

...but they had Donald and Kupp. So what?

Rams are also betting the cap continues to go up and the deals can be restructured.

They haven't had a 1st RD pick since 2016 (Goff):

2017: WC
2018: SB (L)
2019: Missed playoffs
2020: DIV
2021: SB (W)

I think having Goff at QB held them back more than anything.

 

[RobertWeathers]

But you can’t just say you want mid round picks to be good ones and have it happen.
The inference was other trans would copy. They didn’t win the SB just because of trading picks for players.

Sure but 6 players taking 160 mill is a ton regardless of how the cap increases. Again, the point being you can’t judge the result of kicking the can down the road until you get to the can.

That is their model. In years it doesn't work they pivot- just like every other team.

I'm not fixated on the $160m. They'll just restructure or cut the player.

 

[RobertWeathers]

They haven't had a 1st RD pick since 2016 (Goff):

2017: WC
2018: SB (L)
2019: Missed playoffs
2020: DIV
2021: SB (W)

I think having Goff at QB held them back more than anything.

He was horrible vs us.

 

[venecol]

He was horrible vs us.

Giving up two 1st RD + a 3rd to trade Goff for Stafford was the best thing they could've done.

 

[venecol]

That is their model. In years it doesn't work they pivot- just like every other team.

I'm not fixated on the $160m. They'll just restructure or cut the player.

Yea, the idea that the way the Pats maneuver the cap is the best and only way to do it is lazy. It takes balls to do what the Rams (& others are doing). Is it the best way, not necessarily, just different.

I see more teams doing these trades for talented players for high picks model. It's been kinda fun watching this offseason.

 

[Ring 6]

That is their model. In years it doesn't work they pivot- just like every other team.

I'm not fixated on the $160m. They'll just restructure or cut the player.

You can’t judge a long term model in the short term. They traded a 1st to move up for Goff. They traded another for Brandon Cooks. They traded down with another first.
They traded 20 and 21 for Ramsey and 22 and 23 for Stafford.
The impact so far is 2 years of Ramsey and 1 of Stafford. So having veterans in 20 and 21 instead of picks would almost always be better, but the impact of going 4 years without a first rounder is yet to be seen. At the same time they are pushing cap issues ahead.
Personally I’d take a SB win and five 2-15 seasons over any 6 seasons that don’t include a SB win, but it’s way too early to judge this, especially when the starting point of trading picks for players was a team that just went to a SB.

 

[RobertWeathers]

You can’t judge a long term model in the short term. They traded a 1st to move up for Goff. They traded another for Brandon Cooks. They traded down with another first.
They traded 20 and 21 for Ramsey and 22 and 23 for Stafford.
The impact so far is 2 years of Ramsey and 1 of Stafford. So having veterans in 20 and 21 instead of picks would almost always be better, but the impact of going 4 years without a first rounder is yet to be seen. At the same time they are pushing cap issues ahead.
Personally I’d take a SB win and five 2-15 seasons over any 6 seasons that don’t include a SB win, but it’s way too early to judge this, especially when the starting point of trading picks for players was a team that just went to a SB.

I can absolutely judge a long-term model if since McVay took over in 2017 they've been to 2 SBs, the playoffs 4 times and haven't had a losing season. In addition the franchise valuation went up and their player salary liabilities are mitigated via cut or restructures.

You can argue and say it's too soon to say it's successful but you can't say it's has been disproven.

 

[Rob0729]

It's because the 1st RD picks are a 'what if' scenario. That's what the Rams have been doing (succesfully - 2 SB, 1 win), trading 1st RD picks for known assets. MIA did it as well this year. It may be a new approach.

But the Rams already had a solid foundation before they started to make these trades. The 2019 teams was mostly built through the draft and they got to the Super Bowl with Jared Goff. And most of those pieces were still in place last year when they traded for Stafford, Miller, and OBJ. The Jets are nowhere in the same state the Rams were in when they traded away first rounders to buy a Super Bowl.

 

[venecol]

I can absolutely judge a long-term model if since McVay took over in 2017 they've been to 2 SBs, the playoffs 4 times and haven't had a losing season. In addition the franchise valuation went up and their player salary liabilities are mitigated via cut or restructures.

You can argue and say it's too soon to say it's successful but you can't say it's has been disproven.

They're 100% making the playoffs again this season. Good odds they're in NFCCG. +1000 SB odds (4th best).

 

[RobertWeathers]

Yea, the idea that the way the Pats maneuver the cap is the best and only way to do it is lazy. It takes balls to do what the Rams (& others are doing). Is it the best way, not necessarily, just different.

I see more teams doing these trades for talented players for high picks model. It's been kinda fun watching this offseason.

I do agree with Andy it's a bit too soon to say this is THE NEW WAY but after 5 years we can say it can't be discounted.

 

[venecol]

But the Rams already had a solid foundation before they started to make these trades. The 2019 teams was mostly built through the draft and they got to the Super Bowl with Jared Goff. And most of those pieces were still in place last year when they traded for Stafford, Miller, and OBJ. The Jets are nowhere in the same state the Rams were in when they traded away first rounders to buy a Super Bowl.

Rams were 4-12 w/ Goff in 2016. Since 2017, zero 1st RD picks. 4/5 playoff appearances. No lossing record. Two SBs. Hell they won't have a 1st RD in '23 or '24 either. That's 8 years w/o one. We complain here about picking in the latter part of RD 1.

Agree on the Jete.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

I can absolutely judge a long-term model if since McVay took over in 2017 they've been to 2 SBs, the playoffs 4 times and haven't had a losing season. In addition the franchise valuation went up and their player salary liabilities are mitigated via cut or restructures.

You can argue and say it's too soon to say it's successful but you can't say it's has been disproven.

The Rams traded for or signed almost all their top players with the exception of Kupp, Jefferson, Higbee and Donald. I prefer teams to build through the draft primarily and then supplement with few players from other teams like Bill does here. But you can't argue with the results.

 

[patsfanfromoversea]

The Rams traded for or signed almost all their top players with the exception of Kupp, Jefferson, Higbee and Donald. I prefer teams to build through the draft primarily and then supplement with few players from other teams like Bill does here. But you can't argue with the results.

the problem is you can be so dead wrong about a player and a couple of misses and your rebuild based mainly on draft can take 10 years to get one playoff game.

 

[venecol]

 

[SHOWTIME15]

the problem is you can be so dead wrong about a player and a couple of misses and your rebuild based mainly on draft can take 10 years to get one playoff game.

This is true, but Belichick always seems to rebound after a few bad drafts...and I think what he says about getting a late start in the draft process for super bowl teams is very true. Other teams start the draft process in late December/early January, while NE typically has to wait until February. When given enough time, I think Belichick delivers more often than not in the draft (2009, 2010, 2012, 2021).

 

[venecol]

 

[patsfanfromoversea]

This is true, but Belichick always seems to rebound after a few bad drafts...and I think what he says about getting a late start in the draft process for super bowl teams is very true. Other teams start the draft process in late December/early January, while NE typically has to wait until February. When given enough time, I think Belichick delivers more often than not in the draft (2009, 2010, 2012, 2021).

i hope it's true i can't wait for the draft, already super excited.

 

[venecol]

Agree or disagree?