2022 PTP Draft Board / Pats Draft Talk

[captain stone]

The draft is like Christmas morning -- except you never get you asked for.

You know you will hate every single pick.

Yep, and almost always for good reason.

 

[captain stone]

You guys are going to kill me, but don't think that Metchie is second round material. From what I saw on tape, he does not have elite elusiveness or top end speed. He would be a good late round choice; I would not take him before round 4 or 5.

Yeah if he weren't Mac's teammate in 2020, I very likely wouldn't consider him among the early-3rd-round WRs... Early Day 3 would've been his range for me...

 

[Uptown]

Obviously, multiple teams will..but I’m not sure I’ve wanted NE to draft a player to this degree in a looong time. Kid’s a game changer. Doubt he falls to us though.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

What I heard on that podcast is that the Patriots are willing to give up some size to get more athletic, but that player needs to play physical regardless, possibly beyond his size. And they’ll make adjustments to the line and secondary if they need to as a result. You’re right that Chenal really isn’t that different from the current approach anyway, Perry acknowledges that in the podcast. But I wonder if this means Lloyd and/or Dean would be on the radar now if they were to fall to 21? Are they physical enough for their size?

I got the same impression. We've always shown the ability to shift. Be flexible week to week, year to year. I see this the same way just at specific position / role.

If we see this out to the conclusion though we might see less okie - over tackles and more lining up over guards. Which leads to a discussion at DT as well. Either way if we're indeed going to "help out" our LB more guys like Dean would be welcomed with open arms. Dean btw / fwiw to those out there handles contact great for the size of a SS. He doesn't shy away at all. Dean takes the more slippery approach trying slip, maneuver around big bodies but is tough as hell. Chenal is probably LB3/4 for me with plenty of athleticism and fight. He's still very much in play early on as well imo.

*edit*
Expanding a little if we're playing more over guards less over tackles I think edge is more a factor early on. We've waited on those types but could be more of a need. I say that bc our IDL will be tasked with different things and we might see less manipulated pressure and more reliance on straight up edge/rush players. Which is weird considering Wino was just traded but that might have been less a fit than we / I thought. At any rate if we're asking our IDL to take on guards to help out our LB we might see edge early on. And maybe just maybe Uche unleashed 3 years later. Or at least consistent snaps.

The next or lack of backend signing will be interesting to. We've always incorporated some C3. Might we be relying on more zone?

Idk just asking questions but overall I think I heard more flexibility.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

All the simulators have pushed Davis up the board, not down - he's usually gone in the top-12, some as high as #4. It'll be interesting to see how it all falls out, particularly since a couple of teams that would likely do to him have grabbed DTs in FA.

Gotta say I put 0 faith in those brother. Im a weirdo, I'm a draftnik that hates mock drafts lol but those are garbage imo.

 

[50-yard-line]

Perry’s podcast is consistent with how the Patriots played during their win streak last season. Much more zone on early downs with more 2 or 3 300-pound DLinemen alignments.

I wondered why it was less successful down the stretch thinking injuries to Barmore and, possibly, Judon slowed down the pass rush which is essential if playing zone was the reason.

But, perhaps, once teams adjusted to what the Patriots were doing, the Pats just did not have the linebackers to play it well. Injuries in the secondary probably didn’t help either.

Bentley has since resigned, but you’re always going to need stouter LBs for short-distance, goal line plays and against teams like the Ravens that play more heavy sets. Maybe, that’s the role they envision for him.

I remember seeing the statistic that the Pats surrendered 16 runs of more than 20 yards last season with 3 of those runs going for 40 yards or more. Getting more 2nd level speed on the field with more zone D can cut down on those explosive run plays.

It will be interesting to see how this unfolds.

People forget how banged up the Pats were down the stretch. JC got hurt in the 2nd Bills game, then dropped a pick that might have given the Pats a W.

Dugger was hurt, Wynn was out, Barmore was hurt. Mills was out.

Gotta say I put 0 faith in those brother. Im a weirdo, I'm a draftnik that hates mock drafts lol but those are garbage imo.

I get that - but they're a fun distraction for someone who doesn't have the time to really dive deep on which team will pick who. Just wish they were more in line.

And I will say that using your board and those mocks, my draft was pretty close to the Pats last year - again, fun.

 

[upstater1]

I know we have many drafts that haven't been good, and that the team seems to lack top end stars, BUT... I'm looking back on 20 years of drafting and I see that in the last 20 years of drafting, our constant winning has truly hampered our draft position.

In the last 20, we've only picked in the top half of the draft twice. Once was last year with Mac Jones at pick #15.

The only other time was 2008 when we took Jerod Mayo at #10, and that pick came as a result of trading away our first rounder in 2007. It wasn't the result of our finish (SB loss).

It gets even worse when you realize that because of the penalties of Spygate, Deflategate, Film fiasco that we've lost 2 #1s, 1 #2, 1 #3, 3 #4s in that period.

It's already hard to draft when you're winning constantly, but when the league snags 7 draft picks from you, it puts you in an even worse position.

I believe Belichick needs to be judged against the fact he almost never is in position to draft a premium top player.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

People forget how banged up the Pats were down the stretch. JC got hurt in the 2nd Bills game, then dropped a pick that might have given the Pats a W.

Dugger was hurt, Wynn was out, Barmore was hurt. Mills was out.

I get that - but they're a fun distraction for someone who doesn't have the time to really dive deep on which team will pick who. Just wish they were more in line.

And I will say that using your board and those mocks, my draft was pretty close to the Pats last year - again, fun.

Trust me I'm not against fun it's just so out of touch with what will actually happen. I love the idea of it though.

At the end of the day all I care about is draft stuff lol. Being right on a players value, skill-set and identifying guys we'll pick before it happens. So I appreciate it.

 

[Love The Drake]

I know we have many drafts that haven't been good, and that the team seems to lack top end stars, BUT... I'm looking back on 20 years of drafting and I see that in the last 20 years of drafting, our constant winning has truly hampered our draft position.

In the last 20, we've only picked in the top half of the draft twice. Once was last year with Mac Jones at pick #15.

The only other time was 2008 when we took Jerod Mayo at #10, and that pick came as a result of trading away our first rounder in 2007. It wasn't the result of our finish (SB loss).

It gets even worse when you realize that because of the penalties of Spygate, Deflategate, Film fiasco that we've lost 2 #1s, 1 #2, 1 #3, 3 #4s in that period.

It's already hard to draft when you're winning constantly, but when the league snags 7 draft picks from you, it puts you in an even worse position.

I believe Belichick needs to be judged against the fact he almost never is in position to draft a premium top player.

Those stolen picks are infuriating.

 

[borisman]

I was very excited about Jameson Williwms until I watched "Sauce" Gardner blanket him for a whole game....still he would be a huge upgrade for the WR corps....

To be fair ‘Bama ran the ball down Cincy’s throats that game. Gardner is also elite cover corner. And Jameson could also been partially hurt as he blew out his knee the next game so it’s very possible he wasn’t at full strength. Bama also tried to get him the ball in space so he could use his speed. It was a smart thing to try and do vs. someone that good. That Cindy D was no joke.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

To be fair ‘Bama ran the ball down Cincy’s throats that game. Gardner is also elite cover corner. And Jameson could also been partially hurt as he blew out his knee the next game so it’s very possible he wasn’t at full strength. Bama also tried to get him the ball in space so he could use his speed. It was a smart thing to try and do vs. someone that good. That Cindy D was no joke.

Cinci and Kentucky's defense from a few years ago with Josh Allen were scary good. Very underrated. Tough, physical defenses that had lots of attitude. Cinci will have like 5-6 guys drafted from that defense.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Give Mike a click even though it's bspn. As we've seen today there aren't many Mike's around.




"You're going into the second year with a quarterback that you have to be encouraged about, with the steps he took in his first year in the NFL. And I think Rhamondre Stevenson will be one of the better, if not one of the top three, running backs in the league based on what I saw with his strength, explosion and catch-and-run ability. I think that's going to be a big part of the identity they have," he said, before cautioning about notable holes to fill along the offensive line.

I asked one NFL front-office staffer, with knowledge of how the Patriots operate, how they would explain what Belichick is doing this offseason, and this was their assessment:

• He essentially did two years' worth of free-agent shopping in 2021, hoping to capitalize on a depressed market.
• Now he's focused on making internal adjustments to get more out of last year's additions.
• That he attended the University of Georgia's pro day on the first day of free agency probably wasn't a coincidence -- perhaps a reflection of a renewed commitment to drafting and developing after a three- or four-year dry spell in that area.

The NFL's annual meeting is March 28-29 in Palm Beach, Florida, and that might be the first time Belichick -- and owner Robert Kraft -- answer questions from reporters on this topic and others.

Draft chips: The Patriots enter this year's draft with seven picks (one in each of the first five rounds and two in the sixth), and given their start to free agency, my early projection is that Belichick will be motivated to trade down and accumulate more chips. NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah called it a "really good depth draft, especially when you get into the second, third, fourth round. There's a lot of quality there, a lot of starters."

4. Jonnu for Jakob: Fullback Jakob Johnson played 27.9% of the snaps last season, while tight end Jonnu Smith played 46.8%. That isn't a high enough total for Smith after he signed a four-year, $50 million contract with $31.25 million guaranteed. With Johnson joining the Raiders, it would make sense that Smith takes over some of that workload, even though they have contrasting playing styles. The Patriots easily could have re-signed Johnson (his deal included a minimum salary with just $200,000 guaranteed), and their lack of motivation to do so leads back to the idea of getting more out of Smith as a complement to Henry (68.5% playing time). Thus, it wouldn't be a surprise if the traditional fullback isn't as big a part of the offense in 2022.

Trent's status: Unlike Karras, the Patriots didn't seem to extend much to re-sign tackle Trent Brown, despite the offensive line being a major question mark. My sense: Brown's recent injury history loomed large, so if he returned, it would have had to be on a market-friendly deal.

• On his rapport with Jones: "I feel like the first year was setting the foundation. We had a lot of learning experience about each other. This will be the first time I get to go back in with the same quarterback. I'm excited about the opportunity to keep growing with him. ... He throws such a nice, catchable ball; it really just lays in your hands a little bit."

Punt protection turnover: The last time the Patriots played a game, their punt protection unit included running back Brandon Bolden, snapper Joe Cardona, Johnson, personal protector Cody Davis and linebackers Jamie Collins, Jahlani Tavai, Kyle Van Noy and Brandon King. Only Tavai, Cardona and Davis are still on the roster -- and Tavai might not be there when it counts.


Did you know? The Patriots, whose top pick is No. 21 overall, have picked in that slot six times. It ties with No. 32 as their most frequent slot among the top 32 picks. Their picks at 21: OLB Chandler Jones (Syracuse, 2012), RB Laurence Maroney (Minnesota, 2006), DT Vince Wilfork (Miami, 2004), TE Daniel Graham (Colorado, 2002), S Tim Fox (Ohio State, 1976), DB John Charles (Purdue, 1967).

 

[PWRxWLF]

Doubt he falls to us though.

Especially with all the teams that have multiple first round picks.

 

[PWRxWLF]

Gotta say I put 0 faith in those brother. Im a weirdo, I'm a draftnik that hates mock drafts lol but those are garbage imo.

But d%#*!@t they are fun!

 

[captain stone]

I know we have many drafts that haven't been good, and that the team seems to lack top end stars, BUT... I'm looking back on 20 years of drafting and I see that in the last 20 years of drafting, our constant winning has truly hampered our draft position.

In the last 20, we've only picked in the top half of the draft twice. Once was last year with Mac Jones at pick #15.

The only other time was 2008 when we took Jerod Mayo at #10, and that pick came as a result of trading away our first rounder in 2007. It wasn't the result of our finish (SB loss).

It gets even worse when you realize that because of the penalties of Spygate, Deflategate, Film fiasco that we've lost 2 #1s, 1 #2, 1 #3, 3 #4s in that period.

It's already hard to draft when you're winning constantly, but when the league snags 7 draft picks from you, it puts you in an even worse position.

I believe Belichick needs to be judged against the fact he almost never is in position to draft a premium top player.

Ja Wrong.

 

[p8ryts]

But d%#*!@t they are fun!

Agree, they are interesting but essentially irrelevant.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

I got the same impression. We've always shown the ability to shift. Be flexible week to week, year to year. I see this the same way just at specific position / role.

If we see this out to the conclusion though we might see less okie - over tackles and more lining up over guards. Which leads to a discussion at DT as well. Either way if we're indeed going to "help out" our LB more guys like Dean would be welcomed with open arms. Dean btw / fwiw to those out there handles contact great for the size of a SS. He doesn't shy away at all. Dean takes the more slippery approach trying slip, maneuver around big bodies but is tough as hell. Chenal is probably LB3/4 for me with plenty of athleticism and fight. He's still very much in play early on as well imo.

*edit*
Expanding a little if we're playing more over guards less over tackles I think edge is more a factor early on. We've waited on those types but could be more of a need. I say that bc our IDL will be tasked with different things and we might see less manipulated pressure and more reliance on straight up edge/rush players. Which is weird considering Wino was just traded but that might have been less a fit than we / I thought. At any rate if we're asking our IDL to take on guards to help out our LB we might see edge early on. And maybe just maybe Uche unleashed 3 years later. Or at least consistent snaps.

The next or lack of backend signing will be interesting to. We've always incorporated some C3. Might we be relying on more zone?

Idk just asking questions but overall I think I heard more flexibility.

Jumping on this a bit….. spitballing here. To an extent, it might explain the JC and Gilmore decisions. Gilmore and Revis in their primes are wasted in a primary zone scheme. Obviously they’d still be good at it (I think Revis’ issue in 2013 was recovery from injury health more than anything), but on the whole you’re not exploiting these guys to their fullest capacity as you would in a primary man team.

There was a time when people thought Belichick didn’t value CB and would never pay a top flight one. He let Law go when he still had more left. He didn’t pay Asante. But it turns out that coincided with the time period they played more zone. They went back to primary man in 2011, DMac got torched, and while he improved a bit in 2012 the safety play required was atrocious both years and ultimately led to Bill pulling the trigger on the Talib trade and shifting McCourty, and since then we’ve had a CB 1 and generally paid big bucks for one….

….. at the expense of edge. We traded Chandler Jones when he was about to get expensive. Let Trey Flowers walk. Haven’t picked any real edge guy in round 1 / 2 since Jones unless you want to consider Uche that guy. But we’ve drafted CB high — JoeJuan and Cyrus. We basically built the defense based on primary man coverage, hoping the secondary will hold long enough for the pass rush to get there.

If BB thinks he needs more athletic linebackers in response to the passing game and mobile QBs, and a consequence of that is needing to play more zone than in the past, this could really change the economic calculus for building the team. They still need to have talent at CB — 2008 was terrible because they had no talent regardless of the scheme they played — but the cornerbacks were fine in 2009 and 2010 when they were playing zone (safeties and parts of the front 7, another story) and they were just inexpensive back end FA signings plus McCourty. And on the flip side, they could be more willing to invest draft capital and FA money on the edge, provided the guy can still contain decently against the run (why I think Wino was shipped out). Moving to the philosophy of hoping the pass rush gets there will get there before the QB finds the inherent seams in the coverage. Thus, not franchising JC. Not waiting Gilmore out and possibly extending him. Their skill sets may be more valuable now on other teams based on their schemes, but BB doesn’t want to pay their worths to other teams, but to his team.

I’m speaking in absolutes of course, which will never be the case - the team will always be hybrid and there will be lots of man coverage. But just talking about primary trends, and using pre-snap disguises to help minimize downside when they don’t use their primary trend.

Potential implications / predictions: unless they find an exceptional zone CB at 21 who is flexible under various schemes (i.e. another McCourty), I could see them passing on CB in rounds 1 and 2 and wait until round 3. With edge more likely early on.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

@BaconGrundleCandy Maybe I missed the discussion earlier, but could you let me know what notes you have on Zach Tom? He seems like the ideal guard prospect for us in the mid rounds. Agile, fluid pass protector, maybe a little undersized, but with positional versatility, from a program we've drafted from previously. You've likely reviewed a lot more than I have, though, and I'd to hear what you have to say.

 

[Jim Beankie]

Those stolen picks are infuriating.

Not to bring up the past, but I wonder what the Pats would've done with that 2016 pick - Hunter Henry? Chris Jones? Xavien Howard? Derrick Henry? Michael Thomas? Or maybe just screw it up and pick Cyrus at #29 instead of #60?

Not a terrrrrible draft, though.

 

[JMC00]

Not to bring up the past, but I wonder what the Pats would've done with that 2016 pick - Hunter Henry? Chris Jones? Xavien Howard? Derrick Henry? Michael Thomas? Or maybe just screw it up and pick Cyrus at #29 instead of #60?

Not a terrrrrible draft, though.

If my memory serves me they showed interest in Michael Thomas & Tyler Boyd both had private workouts for Belichick and/or McDaniels. Both went before the 60th pick.