J.C. Jackson - "It's time to get Mr. INT paid."

[DaBruinz]

All the omens are lining up for JC this off season. He is the top rated FA CB on the markets so far. The issue as I see it is that Jackson is NOT a shut down CB. And I define a "shut down CB" as a guy that offenses stay away from most of the time. Someone who gets targeted less than 5 times a game. So in the end, Jackson is probably is a $15MM/yr CB in value who is looking at a $20MM market for a "shut down" CB.
The Pats would LIKE to sign Jackson for around $60MM for a 4yr contract with $40MM guaranteed That's what Bill sees as his value. AND as Bedard writes so does the rest of the league.

Ultimately I believe Bill will allow JC to test the market when FA opens. See if anyone will offer him more than that $60/40MM deal. Hopefully he'll come back like a lot of guys before him. "Go test the Market JC you deserve it..., but if you get a great offer, please come back to us and give us a chance to match it or make it better before you sign."

If I were the Pats GM here is the best deal I'd offer him. $15MM/yr on that 4 year deal with $40MM guaranteed, BUT each year I'd offer him incentives based on production. ie if he's named All Pro, or if he's rated in the top 4 CB's in some independent rating system like PFF, he'd get a $4MM dollar boost. That way if the plays like an All Pro CB (not to be confused with pro bowl CB) he gets paid like one and if he plays like a very good but not great CB he's get paid like one. THAT's fair to both sides.

I chose 4 years because that what I believe are his prime years. But its also good for him since he'll only be 29 or 30 when he can hit the FA market again. If I were JC I'd only want a 3 year deal so he won't have the dreaded 30 issue going into the market.

PFK - Did you see how many times Ramsey was targeted? 98 times. That's 6.125 times per game. (He only played 16 games). Jackson was targeted 106 times in 17 games. 6.23 times per game. Jalen Ramsey is considered a "shut down" Corner. Yet he gave up 59% completion rate compared to Jackson's 49.1%.

Other top corners:
Marlon Humphrey - 12 games/84 targets = 7TPG. - 53.6% Completion
Trevon Diggs - 16games / 103 targets = 6.4375 TPG. -52.4% Completion
Marshon Lattimore - 16 games / 106 targets = 6.625 TPG. - 57.5% Completion
Tre'Davious White - 11 games / 64 targets = 5.81 TPG - 51.6% Completion
Darius Slay - 16 games / 85 targets = 5.3125 TPG - 58.8% Completion
Byron Jones - 16 games / 90 targets = 5.625 TPG - 60% completion.
Xavian Howard - 16 games / 93 targets = 5.8125 TPG - 52.7% Completion

Stephon Gilmore - 9 games / 25 targets = 2.77. 68% Completion

Gilmore is the ONLY CB who saw less than 5 targets per game. But he didn't play an entire season. Are you honestly saying that GILMORE is the ONLY shut-down corner in the league?

I think you're ridiculously lowballing Jackson when ALL the top CBs are being paid over 17M AAV. It's going to take a 4/$72 to 5/$110M deal with over 60M guaranteed to get Jackson signed. And that's if you can get him to take less than $20M per season, which isn't likely unless he get's 3-4 years of fully guaranteed salary..

 

[Cam2HarryGOAT]

Clearly you haven't looked at his stats. They are comparable with the guys like Ramsey and others.

Did you watch the second regular season game against Buffalo? He doesn't pass the eye test as an elite corner. he's very good. He's not great. And if reports are true he wants to be paid like a top five corner. Bill won't do that:

Report: J.C. Jackson wants Jalen Ramsey money in free agency

J.C. Jackson could be in the market for a pricey contract.

sports.yahoo.com

 

[kennyb]

Tag and trade him. Then use the money saved to sign fossils mccourty and hightower.

Mccourty knows the system and is always in the right place. I like when he's covering someone and the guy is looking up waiting for the ball. Mccourty will invariably slow down, let him catch it and then try to tackle him. Heaven forbid he'd actually turn and find the ball himself. That'd be crazy.

Pretty good for $12m a season. Very reasonable.

 

[TheRainMaker]

Did you watch the second regular season game against Buffalo? He doesn't pass the eye test as an elite corner. he's very good. He's not great. And if reports are true he wants to be paid like a top five corner. Bill won't do that:

Report: J.C. Jackson wants Jalen Ramsey money in free agency

J.C. Jackson could be in the market for a pricey contract.

sports.yahoo.com

Ramsey got torched in 3 straight playoff games when QB's had the guts to challenge him. He almost lost the game for them against the Bucs. Got torched against the 49ers and in the Super Bowl.

 

[Squish the Fish]

Ramsey got torched in 3 straight playoff games when QB's had the guts to challenge him. He almost lost the game for them against the Bucs. Got torched against the 49ers and in the Super Bowl.

Brady came up with pretty much a perfect throw to the very tall Evans to beat Ramsey on that play but overall Rams defense including Ramsey did very well at limiting the injured Bucs offense. Even on that play, Evans didn't have much separation. It took a great throw and not just a good one. The final score was ridiculously misleading since the Rams offense had like 4 fumbles.

In the SB on one of the plays Ramsey was supposedly beat, the offensive play faced masked him on a blown call that literally everyone (Rams fans and non Ram fans) said should have been called offensive pass inteference. Call that play correctly and probably another very good game by Ramsey.

I am not even saying Ramsey right now is worth the megabucks but he didn't look bad at all in the playoffs.

 

[patfanken]

PFK - Did you see how many times Ramsey was targeted? 98 times. That's 6.125 times per game. (He only played 16 games). Jackson was targeted 106 times in 17 games. 6.23 times per game. Jalen Ramsey is considered a "shut down" Corner. Yet he gave up 59% completion rate compared to Jackson's 49.1%.

Other top corners:
Marlon Humphrey - 12 games/84 targets = 7TPG. - 53.6% Completion
Trevon Diggs - 16games / 103 targets = 6.4375 TPG. -52.4% Completion
Marshon Lattimore - 16 games / 106 targets = 6.625 TPG. - 57.5% Completion
Tre'Davious White - 11 games / 64 targets = 5.81 TPG - 51.6% Completion
Darius Slay - 16 games / 85 targets = 5.3125 TPG - 58.8% Completion
Byron Jones - 16 games / 90 targets = 5.625 TPG - 60% completion.
Xavian Howard - 16 games / 93 targets = 5.8125 TPG - 52.7% Completion

Stephon Gilmore - 9 games / 25 targets = 2.77. 68% Completion

Gilmore is the ONLY CB who saw less than 5 targets per game. But he didn't play an entire season. Are you honestly saying that GILMORE is the ONLY shut-down corner in the league?

I think you're ridiculously lowballing Jackson when ALL the top CBs are being paid over 17M AAV. It's going to take a 4/$72 to 5/$110M deal with over 60M guaranteed to get Jackson signed. And that's if you can get him to take less than $20M per season, which isn't likely unless he get's 3-4 years of fully guaranteed salary..

Thanks for the stats and based on THEM I'd have to agree that Jackson's stats are among the best CB's in the league.....BUT that's not the general consensus of those who see him. Also there are other factors that come into play in dealing with stats. They don't show you what defense was being played when the player was targeted. Was it zone, man or some kind of combination D?? Was there a blitz? Was the QB.throwing under pressure. For example a guy can be beaten on a route but the QB had to throw under pressure and the pass was picked or badly inaccurate and it goes as a plus play for the CB. Also who was the receiver at the time, was it an all pro, or an injury replacement. The bare stats you show, while helpful, do not show the WHOLE story, which we wouldn't get unless we watched the films AND had the Pats defensive play call sheet.

But I was wrong in my "target" analogy. Though it WOULD make a great incentive category. My way the way to pay Jackson would be to pay him that 60/40 deal as a base, and then add incentives that that would add $12-20MM if he hit them. Whether its targets, completion percentage, PFF rankings ,all pro or probowl selections OR a combination of them all. Give the man a "living wage" and then PAY him only after he proves his worth each year.

And the fact is that at $15mm/yr we both know that adding 4 or 5 million each year to isn't going to change his standard of living a single bit. Its just about "whose got the bigger ****" at that point, Mom got the new house when he was making around $3MM. Christ the numbers still awe me. IF I had made that Bronco team back in 71, was could have made close to 16 THOUSAND dollars, which would have been a MASSIVE amount of money to me since I was only making $7200 teaching school and an extra $300 for an entire season of coaching. The numbers we are talking about are really mind boggling. Here's the problem when you have a cap. For every dollar to give player A there is one less dollar for everyone else on the team. In the ultimate team game its hard to feel great if JC gets HIS contract when it might mean there is no money left for yours, but that is the reality. We always forget that you can't pay everyone.

The Pats are going to be having to deal with contracts and FA being close to the cap limit for these next 2 years until the new TV money kicks in. Whenever that day comes (23 or 24) it will be a good year to be a quality FA.

 

[stinkypete]

Josh Allen scored on every drive against the Patriots in the last two games he played against the Pats. In the last game, he had a TD on every drive. The only reason he didn't have a TD on every drive in the game before were because Allen's receivers dropped passes in the end zone. How much better could Allen do against the Patriots without Jackson?

The fact is when the Pats were able to produce good pressure on QBs with a four man rush, this defense absolutely stymied the opposing passing offenses. When they didn't, teams picked apart the defense.

Personally, I want to beef up the front seven. The Pats can get a consistent pass rush without blitzing, they have shown that they can survive with an average or even mediocre secondary. That will also help against the running game.

This is the point. Nobody here wants to see Jackson walk, and nobody is questioning whether he is a legit #1 CB. Still, the gap between a legit #1 CB and an elite, man coverage island type player is quite large. Reality is, you can count the number of CBs who can shut down elite WRs on a week by week basis on one hand and still have fingers to spare. Elite CBs are an exceptional commodity.

An elite pass rush is more likely to cover up deficiencies in the secondary than vice versa. And an elite pass rush can be cobbled from one or two stars supported by a stable of good role players. There is a wide body of evidence supporting the notion that a championship defense is more likely to be buoyed from the front than from the back, and for all the argument about Law and Revis and Gilmore, we can't forget that this defense has also won Super Bowls with the likes of Randall Gay and Logan Ryan starting at CB.

 

[JMC00]

People really taking what Mike Girardi thinks as gospel? Yikes. Especially after Jackson basically pleaded for the Pats to make an offer which is a likely indication he would prefer to stay which could mean he isn't looking for top dollar from the Pats

 

[Wozzy]

He's very likely gone.

 

[Give Kraft A Hand]

I could see the team tagging and trading him for some mid round picks. I could also see the team forgo using the franchise tag too and just let him walk. Hes not coming back next year.

 

[ashley]

I am not even saying Ramsey right now is worth the megabucks but he didn't look bad at all in the playoffs.

Every time I saw him in the playoffs he was getting lit up and that's not including that bomb that Brady beat him on....I'm not saying that Ramsey is not better than JC, but it's not like it's night and day between them. @DaBruinz had a really good post with stats earlier in this thread to confirm this.

 

[DaBruinz]

Did you watch the second regular season game against Buffalo? He doesn't pass the eye test as an elite corner. he's very good. He's not great. And if reports are true he wants to be paid like a top five corner. Bill won't do that:

Report: J.C. Jackson wants Jalen Ramsey money in free agency

J.C. Jackson could be in the market for a pricey contract.

sports.yahoo.com

Did you watch any of the Play-off games that Jalen Ramsey played in? Saying that Jackson doesn't "pass the eye test" because of one bad game is ridiculous. You'll forgive me and everyone else if we ridicule your "eye test" for being a bunch of nothing.

The fact you think Bill won't pay Jackson like a top 5 Corner is also ridiculous when Jackson is one of the best corners in the league doesn't make any sense. He paid Gilmore. He paid Law. He Franchised Asante despite Asante not being as good as Jackson. So let's stop pretending like BB won't pay someone who is in the top tier top tier money.

 

[DaBruinz]

Thanks for the stats and based on THEM I'd have to agree that Jackson's stats are among the best CB's in the league.....BUT that's not the general consensus of those who see him. Also there are other factors that come into play in dealing with stats. They don't show you what defense was being played when the player was targeted. Was it zone, man or some kind of combination D?? Was there a blitz? Was the QB.throwing under pressure. For example a guy can be beaten on a route but the QB had to throw under pressure and the pass was picked or badly inaccurate and it goes as a plus play for the CB. Also who was the receiver at the time, was it an all pro, or an injury replacement. The bare stats you show, while helpful, do not show the WHOLE story, which we wouldn't get unless we watched the films AND had the Pats defensive play call sheet.

But I was wrong in my "target" analogy. Though it WOULD make a great incentive category. My way the way to pay Jackson would be to pay him that 60/40 deal as a base, and then add incentives that that would add $12-20MM if he hit them. Whether its targets, completion percentage, PFF rankings ,all pro or probowl selections OR a combination of them all. Give the man a "living wage" and then PAY him only after he proves his worth each year.

And the fact is that at $15mm/yr we both know that adding 4 or 5 million each year to isn't going to change his standard of living a single bit. Its just about "whose got the bigger ****" at that point, Mom got the new house when he was making around $3MM. Christ the numbers still awe me. IF I had made that Bronco team back in 71, was could have made close to 16 THOUSAND dollars, which would have been a MASSIVE amount of money to me since I was only making $7200 teaching school and an extra $300 for an entire season of coaching. The numbers we are talking about are really mind boggling. Here's the problem when you have a cap. For every dollar to give player A there is one less dollar for everyone else on the team. In the ultimate team game its hard to feel great if JC gets HIS contract when it might mean there is no money left for yours, but that is the reality. We always forget that you can't pay everyone.

The Pats are going to be having to deal with contracts and FA being close to the cap limit for these next 2 years until the new TV money kicks in. Whenever that day comes (23 or 24) it will be a good year to be a quality FA.

It doesn't matter to me what the "general consensus amongst the fans" is or the people on Patsfans. What matter is where the league sees him. It's already been mentioned that Jackson was a sub 50% completion Corner whether it was man or zone.

Yes, the numbers we're talking about are mind-boggling. You and I both know that be it 15M or 20M, Jackson would be set for life if he were a normal person. But these athletes aren't "normal people". They are in a culture that brainwashes them into thinking they are better than other people and that, because of the potential of serious injury and the SHORT career windows they need to milk every last penny they can up front. If you look at my posts regarding Jackson, I started off thinking a 4/60 deal would get it done. But as the year went along and he continued to play as good as any other CB in the league, I realized that I had to adjust my expectations of what he would likely expect from a contract and why I started saying we should expect the Patriots to franchise him if a long term deal wasn't done.

The Pats are projected to have $80M-$110M in Salary Cap space in 2023. I guarantee you that the Agents know that if the Players don't. The Patriots could easily come to Jackson with a split signing bonus like they'd done previously with Brady (amongst others) so that they can minimize the Hit against the cap this year for Jackson while allowing others to also "get paid".

BTW, The TV Contracts start going into effect in 2023. Overthecap.com is expecting a jump of $18M. I'm expecting a jump of $25M-$40M. That is a lot of money in a 1 year jump even with there being 16 PS players and the league having bumped up the minimums across the board.

 

[Family]

The fact you think Bill won't pay Jackson like a top 5 Corner is also ridiculous when Jackson is one of the best corners in the league doesn't make any sense. He paid Gilmore. He paid Law. He Franchised Asante despite Asante not being as good as Jackson. So let's stop pretending like BB won't pay someone who is in the top tier top tier money.

You are correct, but stats are for losers.

JC is good. Very good.

But he is not as good as Law or Gilmore.

Bill will pay JC if he is, so let's see.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Sherman has played like 145 games. Jackson, around 60? Howard too but he has 2 years on JC I think? INT's matter and Jackson has elite ball location and skills.

 

[TheRainMaker]

He paid Law.

Bill didn't pay Law. He signed in extension in 1999. But people on here thinking Jackson shouldn't be paid like a top corner are nuts.

The Pats are projected to have $80M-$110M in Salary Cap space in 2023

If this is the case, then I'm more confident he could be re-signed or at worst Franchised for this year.

 

[venecol]

Reiss has spoken. I agree with him & don't think a T&T will happen (only 2 in 21 years).

 

[Love The Drake]

Reiss has spoken. I agree with him & don't think a T&T will happen (only 2 in 21 years).

Unless a team like the Raiders or Texans value JC and don’t want to compete with other teams for his services.
So I can see one of these Belichick connected teams trading a second to secure his services.
Rest assured the Patriots know if there is a team out there interested in his services.
I would love say a team like the Chiefs offering up Mecole Hardman for JC Jackson.
He’s too valuable a piece to only show up with a third rounder in 2023.

 

[mgteich]

Unless a team like the Raiders or Texans value JC and don’t want to compete with other teams for his services.
So I can see one of these Belichick connected teams trading a second to secure his services.
Rest assured the Patriots know if there is a team out there interested in his services.
I would love say a team like the Chiefs offering up Mecole Hardman for JC Jackson.
He’s too valuable a piece to only show up with a third rounder in 2023.

I suppose a 2023 2nd is possible in early July when Jackson would sign his franchise tag. This is better for a team that wants Jackson that trading a 2022 2nd or 3rd now.

Of course, the patriots would have the use of the $17M of cap space between now and July.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

As a fan you always see the guy with positive media coverage and say "sign the beast!" I'm no different. Tomorrow we might get a headline saying the deal is for $X, Y years, $Z guaranteed, and I'd be going "Yay, got Jackson done, what an excellent day."

Thing is you never go "Yay we let go of the guy it seemed wouldn't be feasible to get done and hang with..."

It's even harder to think there are dozens of deals of various magnitude/importantce spinning around in their universe, and the short and long term cap implications that go with them. So you always have situations where X.Y dollars in a certain structure is all you are willing to do for a guy, bottom line... And that can always be a deal you WANTED to make, but by the way your guys evaluate it, you can't justify.

So here's the thing -- 17M is cheap to cap him, weirdly, if you believe that the "inflation year" scenario is real. (And he knows that.) Tag and trade at least gets SOMETHING done for JC & for the team. Tag and don't trade gets you a cheap year he might refuse to play, blowing it up for everybody. A legit long term deal.... ? Well then you're looking at a market setting deal for him.

I'm not the NE brain trust, and no ink is dry on anything, so all I can say is I don't know anything. But if we get him on a legit long-term deal, get ready to sacrifice a very large chunk of cap change per annum for him, with a lot guaranteed. It is what it is.

You remember having our hands tied when we needed a little more per annum for Brady, and even he... at a certain point... was capable of costing too much. That might also apply to a CB who's selling his services at peak value.

If not, remember you WANTED to pay an outsized cap share to JCJ next time you're screaming to pay someone else.

So all that said, yeah if there is a story on here tomorrow about paying him $20M APY, 70% of it fully guaranteed,, 5 year deal, sure my eyes will bug out and I'll think we overpaid. But I'll wrap my head around it and move forward. And I won't even be mad, I'll just try to figure out why. (especially when he's covering Diggs)