2022 Draft Class of WRs

[AQPE]

When Brady was here, the Pats could waste draft picks on WR (and elsewhere) all day long and Brady still found a way to win.

I don't see Mac as that type of guy. For him to deliver banners its going to take WR who are playmakers like he had in Alabama.

I think this cuts both ways. Brady seemed to freeze guys out pretty quickly. He earned that and you can’t argue with his judgment on it given his insane level of success.

With Mac, he doesn’t have the same luxury so he will have to be more flexible with the guys he has. We saw some good chemistry this year with Bourne, Meyers, and Henry, but not with Agholar or Smith, and Harry is obviously a complete disaster. The most talented of that group IMHO is Henry. Thats why even though I am hoping they go in a different direction, if they do go WR early I’m going to be optimistic about their alignment with Mac.

There are probably a dozen guys I could see doing very well with Mac from the group that seems to be considered in the top tier of this years class.

 

[Rob0729]

If Williams falls to 21 because of his injury (I wouldn't bet on it), it would be stupid not to draft the guy.

 

[Rob0729]

They dont suck because they didnt try doesnt work.

Aaron Dodson, Bethel Johnson and Chad Jackson were 2nd round picks. Brandon Tate was a 3rd. Kooper Cup was a 3rd.

Cooper Kupp is an outlier. Few 3rd round picks at any position end up being remotely as good a football player as Kupp.

Brady was drafted in the 6th round. Should other teams be judging their six round QB busts to Tom Brady as if you can get a franchise QB in the sixth round who will be winning Super Bowls for 20 plus years?

 

[Triumph]

I think this cuts both ways. Brady seemed to freeze guys out pretty quickly

At the end, yes.

Brady was taking less money so the Pats could afford good players. I doubt that Harry, Gordon, Old Ben Watson, Dorsett were the guys that Brady had in mind. A Boston sportswriter penned an article alluding to the fact that the Pats were deep on defense, but the offense was 2nd fiddle.

 

[zimmy]

Out of the 1st round guys, Wilson seems to fit best what we want. He'd be the guy I'd target.

I'm unsure of the others personally and think better fits for us are available on day 2. Drake London as a 'contested catch guy' worries me. Burks has rare physical skills but is really raw with limited route running skills at this point. Williams is hurt so basically a write off for 2022. Olave is interesting but his slender frame concerns me slightly.

 

[upstater1]

I think this cuts both ways. Brady seemed to freeze guys out pretty quickly

He got that rep over the years but I think it's unfair. All these guys who were frozen out went elsewhere in the NFL and accomplished nothing. No one ever clicked with them. Whereas Brady at least had some rapport with Branch and Givens. And the FAs who came in clicked with Brady, like Caldwell, Gaffney, Hogan, Lloyd etc., but the ones who didn't ended up not doing anything anywhere else (Ochocinco, Wayne, Sanu).

I can't think of a receiver who was not good with Brady but was decent anywhere else.

In fact, I can only think of Amendola and Cooks as being 2 guys who left the Patriots and did as well with their new teams.

Otherwise, Givens, Branch, Moss, Caldwell, all the draft picks, no one went elsewhere and did better.

 

[AQPE]

Thanks for the responses guys, sorry I posted the initial thought before I finished.

If they draft Burks or Jameson Williams in R1 or someone like Dotson or Olave in R2 I will be pretty pumped even though I really want them to address DT or ILB there

 

[Triumph]

Cooper Kupp is an outlier. Few 3rd round picks at any position end up being remotely as good a football player as Kupp.

Brady was drafted in the 6th round. Should other teams be judging their six round QB busts to Tom Brady as if you can get a franchise QB in the sixth round who will be winning Super Bowls for 20 plus years?

I dont expect a Kooper Cup.

AB went in the 6th round of the Taylor Price draft. Eric Decker was selected 2 picks before Price. You cant bite the bullet and make a ballsy move up to get a WR worth keeping past his rookie contract? Imagine Decker and Brady?

 

[upstater1]

I dont expect a Kooper Cup.

AB went in the 6th round of the Taylor Price draft. Eric Decker was selected 2 picks before Price. You cant bite the bullet and make a ballsy move up to get a WR worth keeping past his rookie contract? Imagine Decker and Brady?

Can only be done with volume of picks.

Is there a team that does better than 33%?

The Patriots are not very good at this at all, but they spend 1/3rd of the amount of premium picks that the Steelers do.

 

[chief1]

If Williams falls to 21 because of his injury (I wouldn't bet on it), it would be stupid not to draft the guy.

Totally agree with this. He is a blue-chip prospect that would be a top 10 pick if not for his injury. I would take my chances on a full recovery.

 

[TinhWoodhead]

dotson or robinson scream pats to me. burks though athletic , they mention is not a crisp route runner. robinson in second round seems about right to me. trade down and stockpile picks 40-60

also screams dobson

 

[BTTA]

I think this cuts both ways. Brady seemed to freeze guys out pretty quickly. He earned that and you can’t argue with his judgment on it given his insane level of success.

With Mac, he doesn’t have the same luxury so he will have to be more flexible with the guys he has. We saw some good chemistry this year with Bourne, Meyers, and Henry, but not with Agholar or Smith, and Harry is obviously a complete disaster. The most talented of that group IMHO is Henry. Thats why even though I am hoping they go in a different direction, if they do go WR early I’m going to be optimistic about their alignment with Mac.

There are probably a dozen guys I could see doing very well with Mac from the group that seems to be considered in the top tier of this years class.

Bourne's stats last year were outstanding. And he added the running component, with a better year than the much acclaimed Stefon Diggs.
Put him in this offense as the #2 with a legitimate #1, in year two where everything slows down, and he's going to be even better. That problem is solved, if the #1 problem gets solved.

 

[DaBruinz]

Bourne's stats last year were outstanding. And he added the running component, with a better year than the much acclaimed Stefon Diggs.
Put him in this offense as the #2 with a legitimate #1, in year two where everything slows down, and he's going to be even better. That problem is solved, if the #1 problem gets solved.

The #1 problem on the offense last year wasn't Agholor as the #1 receiver. It was the inconsistency of the O-line. Part of it was Trent Brown not being there and none of the 3 back-ups in Cajuste, Durant, or Herron being able to step in, but after the Bye, they were bad. They let up a ton of pressure onto Jones. He'd have been sacked much more if he wasn't so good at getting the ball out quickly.

The O-line needs to be solidified. That starts with the Coaching. The O-line has lost it's entire coaching staff since the 2020 season. I'm not counting Yates because he an Intern. The Pats NEED someone to come in and take over the reins. Someone that will help all of them improve and become more consistent.

Don't quote me about what the running game did overall or the Passing game.. or that Jones only took 28 sacks. That doesn't matter. What matters is the 1-4 record to close out the season (including the play-off loss to Buffalo). What matters is the 7 interceptions that Jones threw in those 5 games. What matters is that against Buffalo, we couldn't muster more than 89 yards on the ground the 2nd and 3rd times we played them after trouncing them for 222 yards the first time around.

The only way having a "#1 WR" matters is if the player gets open while Jones has the time to survey the field. If Jones doesn't get that time before he has to get rid of the ball, it wouldn't matter if it was Jerry Rice or Randy Moss out there. And we saw that in the SB against the Giants during the run for a perfect season.

Fix the O-line Coaching so that the O-line plays cohesively and consistently the entire year. Add in a player like Phillips out of the slot while using Bourne, Meyers, Smith, and Henry and your offense will do wonders with Harris and Stevenson running the ball.

 

[Triumph]

The Patriots are not very good at this at all, but they spend 1/3rd of the amount of premium picks that the Steelers do.

Over the course of 21 years, the Pats have spent 16 picks on WRs and the Steelers have spent 23. At this position the Pats spend 2/3rds of the what the Steelers spend overall.

Pats
1st - # 1 - Harry 0%
2nd -# 4 - Deon Branch, Bethel Johnson. Chad Jackson, Aaron Dobson. 25%
3rd -# 2 - Brandon Tate, Taylor Price 0%
7 Premium drafts picks have netted 1 WR

Steelers
1st - # 2 - Plaxico Burress, Santonio Holmes 100%
2nd - # 5 - Randle El, Limas Sweed, JuJu Smith, James Washington, Chase Claypool 60%
3rd - # 6 - Willie Reed, Mike Wallace, Emanuel Sanders, Markus Wheaton, Sammie Coates, Diontae Johnson 50%
13 Premium draft picks have netted 8 WRs

New England expends 53% of premium WR draft selections vs what Pittsurgh does at WR. Basically, through the first 3 rounds Pittsburgh has a 61% WR success rate and New England has a 14% WR success rate. The Steelers using 1 additional 1st and 1 additional 2nd round pick isnt spending like a drunken sailor.

The rubber has hit the road now with Brady not around to fix draft mistakes. Mac is going to need playmakers like other guys around the league and it wont matter if the Pats unload every draft pick at WR if they cannot identify a bust from a contributor.

 

[upstater1]

Over the course of 21 years, the Pats have spent 16 picks on WRs and the Steelers have spent 23. At this position the Pats spend 2/3rds of the what the Steelers spend overall.

Pats
1st - # 1 - Harry 0%
2nd -# 4 - Deon Branch, Bethel Johnson. Chad Jackson, Aaron Dobson. 25%
3rd -# 2 - Brandon Tate, Taylor Price 0%
7 Premium drafts picks have netted 1 WR

Steelers
1st - # 2 - Plaxico Burress, Santonio Holmes 100%
2nd - # 5 - Randle El, Limas Sweed, JuJu Smith, James Washington, Chase Claypool 60%
3rd - # 6 - Willie Reed, Mike Wallace, Emanuel Sanders, Markus Wheaton, Sammie Coates, Diontae Johnson 50%
13 Premium draft picks have netted 8 WRs

New England expends 53% of premium WR draft selections vs what Pittsurgh does at WR. Basically, through the first 3 rounds Pittsburgh has a 61% WR success rate and New England has a 14% WR success rate. The Steelers using 1 additional 1st and 1 additional 2nd round pick isnt spending like a drunken sailor.

The rubber has hit the road now with Brady not around to fix draft mistakes. Mac is going to need playmakers like other guys around the league and it wont matter if the Pats unload every draft pick at WR if they cannot identify a bust from a contributor.

I see people missing from your calculations, like Dri Archer. Did you get everyone?

The rest of what you wrote reinforces what I said. Pittsburgh spends a lot more premium picks. Your own analysis show Pittsburgh spends 2x as many premium picks over 22 years as the Patriots (even though you didn't even include some players, like Archer).

This is what I've been saying.

 

[mgteich]

If Williams falls to 21 because of his injury (I wouldn't bet on it), it would be stupid not to draft the guy.

You think that it's stupid not to draft a WR. To be mild, I strongly, strongly disagree, as much as when folks wanted Terrell instead of Seymour.
=======================
I think that it's stupid not to draft a CB, DT or LB.

The secondary is likely losing Jackson and McCourty.

The defensive front seven needed lots of help, even before losing Hightower and Bentley.

 

[Rob0729]

You think that it's stupid not to draft a WR. To be mild, I strongly, strongly disagree, as much as when folks wanted Terrell instead of Seymour.
=======================
I think that it's stupid not to draft a CB, DT or LB.

The secondary is likely losing Jackson and McCourty.

The defensive front seven needed lots of help, even before losing Hightower and Bentley.

Not a WR. This WR. This guy is a top 5 pick, may be top 10 if he didn't blow out his ACL. This draft is supposed to be devoid of a lot of players who truly qualify as a first round pick and this guy is one of them. If the Pats see a top 5 pick value drop to 21 because of an ACL injury which at worst should cost him part of his rookie season, they should grab at it.

And this is nothing like Terrell vs. Seymour. This would be a top 5-10 draft prospect in what is considered to be a shallow draft in the first round at a position at need dropping to the Pats at 21 due to injury. In 2001, it was the Pats had the choice of two players ranked similarly and both being a position of need and the Pats selected the better player.

And if the Pats lose Jackson, they will most likely have a first round draft pick to replace him in a tag and trade deal. The Pats are not going to let the best CB in free agency go for a 3rd round compensatory pick compensation in 2023. Either he will be tagged and play for the Pats in 2022 or he will be tagged and traded or a very outside chance he gets a long term deal. And if he is tagged and traded, it will likely be to a team with multiple first round picks and all of them have multiple first rounders before 21. So the Pats will either have Jackson for 2022 or have drafted his replacement by their 21st pick.

 

[BTTA]

The #1 problem on the offense last year wasn't Agholor as the #1 receiver. It was the inconsistency of the O-line. Part of it was Trent Brown not being there and none of the 3 back-ups in Cajuste, Durant, or Herron being able to step in, but after the Bye, they were bad. They let up a ton of pressure onto Jones. He'd have been sacked much more if he wasn't so good at getting the ball out quickly.

The O-line needs to be solidified. That starts with the Coaching. The O-line has lost it's entire coaching staff since the 2020 season. I'm not counting Yates because he an Intern. The Pats NEED someone to come in and take over the reins. Someone that will help all of them improve and become more consistent.

Don't quote me about what the running game did overall or the Passing game.. or that Jones only took 28 sacks. That doesn't matter. What matters is the 1-4 record to close out the season (including the play-off loss to Buffalo). What matters is the 7 interceptions that Jones threw in those 5 games. What matters is that against Buffalo, we couldn't muster more than 89 yards on the ground the 2nd and 3rd times we played them after trouncing them for 222 yards the first time around.

The only way having a "#1 WR" matters is if the player gets open while Jones has the time to survey the field. If Jones doesn't get that time before he has to get rid of the ball, it wouldn't matter if it was Jerry Rice or Randy Moss out there. And we saw that in the SB against the Giants during the run for a perfect season.

Fix the O-line Coaching so that the O-line plays cohesively and consistently the entire year. Add in a player like Phillips out of the slot while using Bourne, Meyers, Smith, and Henry and your offense will do wonders with Harris and Stevenson running the ball.

"The problem" is having adequate WR's, not the whole offense.
Bourne's running was the topic, not the entire running game.

 

[50-yard-line]

I think the Pats try to solve the WR problem (if BB even considers it a problem, which is scary) in FA. If not, Williams makes the most sense, if he's there - Agholor has one more year. Williams comes back halfway through and gets his reps to be ready to replace Nelson.

Having said that, the biggest need for this team is a powerful run-stopping force INSIDE the DL and some LBs with speed. Unless they get someone like Hicks in FA, and think the two Mc's solve their LB speed problem, I doubt' they're going WR early.

The best fix to the passing game is to loosen the reins on Jones and find an OC that will use TWO TE's correctly, as Baltimore did a couple of years ago (even using three - which, with Asiasi, is possible).

 

[Triumph]

I see people missing from your calculations, like Dri Archer. Did you get everyone?

The rest of what you wrote reinforces what I said. Pittsburgh spends a lot more premium picks. Your own analysis show Pittsburgh spends 2x as many premium picks over 22 years as the Patriots (even though you didn't even include some players, like Archer).

This is what I've been saying.

Archer was drafted as a RB from Kent State. Do we include James White then? Vereen too?

You stated that NE spends 1/3 of their premium draft picks on WRs compared to Pitt. That is false. 53% is not 33%.

The Pats have spent 5 picks on WR ( 1,2,2,2,2 ) in the first 2 rounds to land 1 player - Branch.
The Steelers have spent 7 picks on WR ( 1,1, 2,2,2,2,2 ) in the first 2 rounds to land 5 players - Burress, Holmes, Randle El, JuJu and Claypool. And, truthfully, James Washington is a decent player.

The notion that the Steelers are spending so much more on WRs than NE is a myth.