BB awarded NFL Executive of the Year

[venecol]

It all seems to reasonable to me. Like, if you're not paying these players that much, you're paying others. Only Jonnu's contract in retrospect seems like too much. It was just the fact that we signed so many that made it unusual.

But you're going to pay layers that much regardless if they're your own or someone else's. In fact, Belichick took advantage of a year in which the cap decreased, strapped a lot of teams, and if anything depressed contracts on the open market.

Just wait

You're not understanding. It wasn't the total amount of the contracts that was an issue, but the high amount of guaranteed money. The Patriots had never done that before. Bill over reacted the first few days and dished out hundreds of millions in guaranteed money to get his guys. Some of these guys were literally crying when they heard how much they were getting in cash.

Bill was competing with himself. Everyone else sat back and waited for the market to settle and the FAs to get desperate. Sure, Pats dished out guaranteed money before, but nothing even remotely close to 2021. Now, you can't get rid of guys like Smith or Agholor because the dead money hit is huge.

Nelson Agholor signed a 2 year contract with a base value of $22M with $16M guaranteed. His dead money in 2022 is $10M.

Jonnu Smith signed a 4 year, $50M contract with $31.25M in fully guaranteed salaries (2021, 2022 salaries fully guaranteed + $6.5M of 2023). This is not a good contract for the Pats.


Davon Godchaux signed a 2 year, $15M contract with $9M in guarantees. And so on.

 

[ALP]

i think it's a good contract if what the patriots were trying to do is not make these contracts affect the team past the next 2-3 years...it's almost a blank slate in 2/3 years at this rate

 

[Pape]

You're not understanding. It wasn't the total amount of the contracts that was an issue, but the high amount of guaranteed money. The Patriots had never done that before. Bill over reacted the first few days and dished out hundreds of millions in guaranteed money to get his guys. Some of these guys were literally crying when they heard how much they were getting in cash.

Bill was competing with himself. Everyone else sat back and waited for the market to settle and the FAs to get desperate. Sure, Pats dished out guaranteed money before, but nothing even remotely close to 2021. Now, you can't get rid of guys like Smith or Agholor because the dead money hit is huge.

Nelson Agholor signed a 2 year contract with a base value of $22M with $16M guaranteed. His dead money in 2022 is $10M.

Jonnu Smith signed a 4 year, $50M contract with $31.25M in fully guaranteed salaries (2021, 2022 salaries fully guaranteed + $6.5M of 2023). This is not a good contract for the Pats.
View attachment 41015

Davon Godchaux signed a 2 year, $15M contract with $9M in guarantees. And so on.

Over react? Or did he have to pay market rates to get the players he wanted? There is a difference.

The Rams shelling out all that money for an injured Gurley followed up by a large contract for Goff was an overreaction, trying to keep a team together.

Money spent doesn't always translate to performance. Throwing money down a hole to keep what you have when you know what the players will do in your system differs from a rebuilding period, where you are adding talent, hoping they work in the new system.

The first part Belichick excels at. That's why we've always let players go "one year too soon" vs holding on to them. The addition of free agents always is a crapshoot. We've seen talented players flame out in a year, and others take off. Now we just have to balance it out, remove those who don't pan out.

 

[upstater1]

You're not understanding. It wasn't the total amount of the contracts that was an issue, but the high amount of guaranteed money. The Patriots had never done that before. Bill over reacted the first few days and dished out hundreds of millions in guaranteed money to get his guys. Some of these guys were literally crying when they heard how much they were getting in cash.

Bill was competing with himself. Everyone else sat back and waited for the market to settle and the FAs to get desperate. Sure, Pats dished out guaranteed money before, but nothing even remotely close to 2021. Now, you can't get rid of guys like Smith or Agholor because the dead money hit is huge.

Nelson Agholor signed a 2 year contract with a base value of $22M with $16M guaranteed. His dead money in 2022 is $10M.

Jonnu Smith signed a 4 year, $50M contract with $31.25M in fully guaranteed salaries (2021, 2022 salaries fully guaranteed + $6.5M of 2023). This is not a good contract for the Pats.
View attachment 41015

Davon Godchaux signed a 2 year, $15M contract with $9M in guarantees. And so on.

I know all this.

But I'm saying these are not big contracts except for Jonnu's.

I already pointed out Jonnu's is the outlier.

When you have a 2 year contract, in Agholor's case, the guarantee is literally meaningless.

No player is going to sign for only 2 years when he knows there's a strong chance of being cut with little in guarantees.

Again, these guarantees and contracts are going to be significantly UNDER the market--Bourne's already is! Henry's will be under. Agholor won't even be here.

I have no idea why people think these contracts strap the Patriots. They don't.

 

[sb1]

I would have rather Bill be given this award near the end of this rebuild, not at the start of it.

The Patriots improved by 3 wins over a 2020 team with almost no talent by spending all kinds of money to get there.

 

[crawhammer]

I think Les Snead of the LA Rams should have been selected as Executive of the Year. The Execs of Tampa Bay and Cincinnati also deserved consideration. Belichick spent the most money by far, with mixed results, and the team floundered badly down the stretch (not even including the playoff debacle), which to me should have taken him out of the top spot for this award.

 

[venecol]

I know all this.

But I'm saying these are not big contracts except for Jonnu's.

I already pointed out Jonnu's is the outlier.

When you have a 2 year contract, in Agholor's case, the guarantee is literally meaningless.

No player is going to sign for only 2 years when he knows there's a strong chance of being cut with little in guarantees.

Again, these guarantees and contracts are going to be significantly UNDER the market--Bourne's already is! Henry's will be under. Agholor won't even be here.

I have no idea why people think these contracts strap the Patriots. They don't.

Another issue to consider is that at the time we didn't have a starting QB (we may have recently re-signed Cam). It's possible Bill felt he needed to buy these FAs to come here, given the lack of QB direction. I'm sure it was part of the consideration since money talks. I know Bourne said nobody else offered anything close to Pats offer and Jonnu said he literally cried when he heard the offer.

 

[upstater1]

Another issue to consider is that at the time we didn't have a starting QB (we may have recently re-signed Cam). It's possible Bill felt he needed to buy these FAs to come here, given the lack of QB direction. I'm sure it was part of the consideration since money talks. I know Bourne said nobody else offered anything close to Pats offer and Jonnu said he literally cried when he heard the offer.

We were bidding in a year in which the lower cap strapped a lot of teams. We had money, they didn't. The Patriots can be criticized for Jonnu's contract, given his lack of production, but with the other players they did well.

 

[ashley]

I would have rather Bill be given this award near the end of this rebuild, not at the start of it.

The Patriots improved by 3 wins over a 2020 team with almost no talent by spending all kinds of money to get there.

but they did make the playoffs, which was a big deal.

 

[Ring 6]

I would have rather Bill be given this award near the end of this rebuild, not at the start of it.

The Patriots improved by 3 wins over a 2020 team with almost no talent by spending all kinds of money to get there.

Improving by 3 wins, when starting a rookie QB, having over 40% of the snaps played by new players, making the playoffs is substantial.
They started the off season with a roster that would only play 60% of the snaps, and was good enough to only take up 60% of the cap, with no viable QB, and turned that into a playoff team.

“Spending all kinds of money” isn’t a negative, it means there was “all kinds of money” available to spend because of the state of what was returning. To rebuild 40% of your team, and end up in the playoffs is a remarkable accomplishment.

Ultimately they couldn’t catch up with Buffalo. Aside from that this team came very far in just one year.
Anyone who expected the best team in the league to be build from that starting point needs to lay off the pipe.

 

[Ring 6]

I know all this.

But I'm saying these are not big contracts except for Jonnu's.

I already pointed out Jonnu's is the outlier.

When you have a 2 year contract, in Agholor's case, the guarantee is literally meaningless.

No player is going to sign for only 2 years when he knows there's a strong chance of being cut with little in guarantees.

Again, these guarantees and contracts are going to be significantly UNDER the market--Bourne's already is! Henry's will be under. Agholor won't even be here.

I have no idea why people think these contracts strap the Patriots. They don't.

Agree.
There was a lot of money to spend.
How he spent it was consistent with how NFL FA contracts work, and the players he signed got paid pretty commensurate with the market.
Smith may not have had the numbers to warrant it, but NFL free agency isn’t about placing numbers against a scale, it’s about the perception of the players future value, and there is no question Smith was viewed as a player ready to bust out.
It also doesn’t matter how all trans value a player, just how the one you are competing against does, which is what causes most free agents to be overpaid.

It’s ironic that people look at this so backwards.
Having a lot of cap space doesn’t mean you have greater ability to be patient and not over pay, it means you have less talent on your roster, more need and have to go after top dollar guys to capably fill those holes.

The reason people joke about winning the off season or buying a team in free agency isn’t because signing free agents is a bad plan, it’s because the teams signing the most sand most expensive start at the bottom of the barrel and those free agents aren’t enough to overcome the severe deficiencies they have across the roster.

 

[crawhammer]

Even with the unprecedented spending spree, the Patriots would still appear to be well behind Buffalo, which obviously is a huge problem. How they close the gap moving forward is the question. Josh Allen looks like he's trending toward yearly MVP campaigns and I'd see Jones ever approaching that level. Yet still, Jones improving will be paramount to the success of the team. That and the defense probably needs to get a lot better to deal with Allen, and Mahomes, and Burrow, etc. etc. etc.

 

[venecol]

The reason people joke about winning the off season or buying a team in free agency isn’t because signing free agents is a bad plan, it’s because the teams signing the most sand most expensive start at the bottom of the barrel and those free agents aren’t enough to overcome the severe deficiencies they have across the roster.

Maybe so, but the teams that have spent the most during FAcy have averaged 5.4 more wins that season. Pats had 3 more wins (with an extra game). So by that metric alone, the outcome was below average.

 

[Ring 6]

Maybe so, but the teams that have spent the most during FAcy have averaged 5.4 more wins that season. Pats had 3 more wins (with an extra game). So by that metric alone, the outcome was below average.

Where is that data from? Link please
Teams winning 7 games and “spending the most during FAcy” aren’t consistently winning 12-13.

 

[venecol]

Where is that data from? Link please
Teams winning 7 games and “spending the most during FAcy” aren’t consistently winning 12-13.

From Mike Reiss.

"Consider that from 2016 to 2020, the team that spent the most guaranteed money in NFL free agency improved by an average of 5.4 wins that season, according to ESPN Stats & Information research. The issue was the following season, as teams that spent the most guaranteed money in free agency from 2016 to 2019 had an average decline of 5.5 wins in Year 2."

Will New England Patriots see results after spending $163 million in free agency?

Recent history suggests the Patriots will get a boost after finishing 7-9 in 2020, but the hard part will be sustaining success after splurging.

www.espn.com

 

[doesntmatter1]

We had a decent year but I thought the way we ended the year would cost BB a shot at this type of award.

I didn't trust our defense whatsoever after the Cowboy game. The way the Cowboys picked up chunks showed how far our floor truly was and it reared its ugly ahead against the Bills with our inability to force a punt against them. BB is regarded as a defensive genius and he allowed a historically horrible performance in the playoffs.

 

[Ring 6]

From Mike Reiss.

"Consider that from 2016 to 2020, the team that spent the most guaranteed money in NFL free agency improved by an average of 5.4 wins that season, according to ESPN Stats & Information research. The issue was the following season, as teams that spent the most guaranteed money in free agency from 2016 to 2019 had an average decline of 5.5 wins in Year 2."

Will New England Patriots see results after spending $163 million in free agency?

Recent history suggests the Patriots will get a boost after finishing 7-9 in 2020, but the hard part will be sustaining success after splurging.

www.espn.com

Those teams had won an average of 4.6 games a year.

 

[venecol]

Those teams had won an average of 4.6 games a year.

That's even more impressive, going from 4.6 to 10 wins. We went from 7 to 10 after spending an NFL record amount. Kraft has to be dissapointed.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

He just wanted to tweet @Vrabes "All your tight ends are belong to us!"

I was puzzled too about why the high guaranteed money. The simple explanation is that you get payday over with, lock down the basic consistent cast of characters with the "cheap money," then as the cap grows, your wiggle room grows around that core group. And it's a big group.

I mean, the usual trade-off is, you can promise an enormous amount down the road, or there can be a smaller guaranteed amount.... and players all want the true guaranteed money.

So the big locked down guaranteed dollars should work both ways. Your huge-ish 50M, 12.5 m/yr. guaranteed contract (either HH or Jonnnu, don't remember which one took the 4 year deal) keeps you in town through 2024, and by then the theory is that TEs making 12.5m are a bargain.

This is a fairly interesting article on "the spending spree," if nobody's quoted it.

How the New England Patriots spent $159.6 million over nine days to overhaul their roster

The Patriots shocked the NFL by throwing big money at big names in free agency. Here's an inside look at how it played out and why they did it.

www.espn.com

Note how the 3/5 guaranteed amount shows up in the early deals with Jonnu, Godchaux (cheapish 2 yr 9M guaranteed, 16M deal), and Judon. That proportion (roughly) comes back with the Agholar deal then Hunter Henry. A lot of guys in between are getting like 1/3 guaranteed. Lawrence Guy signs toward the end of the spree for like $3M guaranteed... and 27M total.

So BB wanted to win the competition specifically for Hunter Henry, Jonnu, Godchaux (to an extent) Judon, and Agholar. Those are his ride or dies out of this batch. Godchaux, not even. Somebody correct me if anyhbody else got paid at, say, more than half guaranteed. I think except these guys, the numbers were around 1/3 guaranteed and less.

They definitely targeted those guys, and they targeted Jonnu BEFORE Henry. They were in a definite "buy now" mode, and that has to do w the caponomics. I guess the idea is that if you spend it and can unspend it later, you didn't win the cap game after all. On those 5 guys, they wanted to get the deal done in a way that it is hard to even un-do. Well, except Godchaux. It ain't cheap compared with a less guaranteed deal, but we could cut him loose. It's just one year.

The Rosenhaus connection, of course, comes into play.

I think we're not seeing yet all that we will see out of Jonnu, or we wont see wht BB thought he would see, and might still think he will one day see. I think it's clear he wanted Mac to have 2 pass catching TE targets as he grew. Interestingly, he also spent guaranteed money on a vertical guy, agholar. (just 2 years, 16M of 26 guaranteed). Judon was just as pricy as the TEs. Those appear to be the ones he is really sure he wants for a few years (The TEs and Judon, 3yrs, 4, and 4.) Agholar and Godchaux are 2-year contracts, so they're already escapable. Bourne cost us 5.25M guaranteed on a $22.5M deal. I hope everybody is okay w the $3.38M we spent on JC Jackson .... who I think is gone soon. But who knows.

So naturally, some guys cost $3m and perform like they're worth $20M, some guys cost 12.5M/yr and perform like $3M.

More hits than misses by a lot, one of the biggest spenders when it's actually a good year to spend, landed a franchise QB in the draft. Bill the GM did okay for himself overall, apparently.

But walk through that group in the article... it's interesting that they can't just blow things up in general, but that's mainly weighted toward 2 TEs and 1 OLB. Those are the backbreakers if we bail on them. I don't think we need to bail on Godchaux or Agholar, FWIW, the other guys in the 3/5ish guaranteed club.

We're not a match for the Bills. We looked like we were for like 5 minutes then ran out of gas.

 

[venecol]

He just wanted to tweet @Vrabes "All your tight ends are belong to us!"

I was puzzled too about why the high guaranteed money. The simple explanation is that you get payday over with, lock down the basic consistent cast of characters with the "cheap money," then as the cap grows, your wiggle room grows around that core group. And it's a big group.

I mean, the usual trade-off is, you can promise an enormous amount down the road, or there can be a smaller guaranteed amount.... and players all want the true guaranteed money.

So the big locked down guaranteed dollars should work both ways. Your huge-ish 50M, 12.5 m/yr. guaranteed contract (either HH or Jonnnu, don't remember which one took the 4 year deal) keeps you in town through 2024, and by then the theory is that TEs making 12.5m are a bargain.

This is a fairly interesting article on "the spending spree," if nobody's quoted it.

How the New England Patriots spent $159.6 million over nine days to overhaul their roster

The Patriots shocked the NFL by throwing big money at big names in free agency. Here's an inside look at how it played out and why they did it.

www.espn.com

Note how the 3/5 guaranteed amount shows up in the early deals with Jonnu, Godchaux (cheapish 2 yr 9M guaranteed, 16M deal), and Judon. That proportion (roughly) comes back with the Agholar deal then Hunter Henry. A lot of guys in between are getting like 1/3 guaranteed. Lawrence Guy signs toward the end of the spree for like $3M guaranteed... and 27M total.

So BB wanted to win the competition specifically for Hunter Henry, Jonnu, Godchaux (to an extent) Judon, and Agholar. Those are his ride or dies out of this batch. Godchaux, not even. Somebody correct me if anyhbody else got paid at, say, more than half guaranteed. I think except these guys, the numbers were around 1/3 guaranteed and less.

They definitely targeted those guys, and they targeted Jonnu BEFORE Henry. They were in a definite "buy now" mode, and that has to do w the caponomics. I guess the idea is that if you spend it and can unspend it later, you didn't win the cap game after all. On those 5 guys, they wanted to get the deal done in a way that it is hard to even un-do. Well, except Godchaux. It ain't cheap compared with a less guaranteed deal, but we could cut him loose. It's just one year.

The Rosenhaus connection, of course, comes into play.

I think we're not seeing yet all that we will see out of Jonnu, or we wont see wht BB thought he would see, and might still think he will one day see. I think it's clear he wanted Mac to have 2 pass catching TE targets as he grew. Interestingly, he also spent guaranteed money on a vertical guy, agholar. (just 2 years, 16M of 26 guaranteed). Judon was just as pricy as the TEs. Those appear to be the ones he is really sure he wants for a few years (The TEs and Judon, 3yrs, 4, and 4.) Agholar and Godchaux are 2-year contracts, so they're already escapable. Bourne cost us 5.25M guaranteed on a $22.5M deal. I hope everybody is okay w the $3.38M we spent on JC Jackson .... who I think is gone soon. But who knows.

So naturally, some guys cost $3m and perform like they're worth $20M, some guys cost 12.5M/yr and perform like $3M.

More hits than misses by a lot, one of the biggest spenders when it's actually a good year to spend, landed a franchise QB in the draft. Bill the GM did okay for himself overall, apparently.

But walk through that group in the article... it's interesting that they can't just blow things up in general, but that's mainly weighted toward 2 TEs and 1 OLB. Those are the backbreakers if we bail on them. I don't think we need to bail on Godchaux or Agholar, FWIW, the other guys in the 3/5ish guaranteed club.

We're not a match for the Bills. We looked like we were for like 5 minutes then ran out of gas.

Right, but 3 of the 5 you listed are misses imo and you can't get out.

Hopefully things are better next season.