NBC Article on Patriots Draft Strategy

[Bill Lee]

The drafts from 2013 onward haven't been good. Multiple analysts have shown, via different metrics, the Patriots have been one of the worst drafting teams and it's finally caught up to us.

That comes across as a butt hurt fan position, rather than a solid analysis.

NFL Drafting Efficiency, 2010-2019

third table shows if you adjust for draft position, we are top-quarter (#8) if you look at 2010-2019 and top-half (#15) if you look at 2014-2019.

Do you honestly think we could have had the results we've had if we really were one of the worst drafting teams in the league?

If you want to see the worst drafting teams, sort that table in increasing order.

No surprise, da Jete have been the worst over both the five year and ten year windows.

Feel free to show us "Multiple analysts have shown, via different metrics" and maybe you have a point, but to me, it doesn't pass the sniff test.

 

[TheRainMaker]

These draft boards are paralysis by analysis.

 

[SlowGettingUp]

They lost some key draft picks over nonsense (Deflategate, Videogate) and to some extent they mortgaged the future by giving up draft picks to trade players. Potentially a good strategy in the short term if you are trying to win now, but a costly one long term given the draft picks have much less impact on salary cap. And when comparing to others, picking at the end of the round is definitely costly.
Pretty much every team has swings and misses, but when you have fewer high picks those misses become more costly.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

That comes across as a butt hurt fan position, rather than a solid analysis.

NFL Drafting Efficiency, 2010-2019

third table shows if you adjust for draft position, we are top-quarter (#8) if you look at 2010-2019 and top-half (#15) if you look at 2014-2019.

Do you honestly think we could have had the results we've had if we really were one of the worst drafting teams in the league?

If you want to see the worst drafting teams, sort that table in increasing order.

No surprise, da Jete have been the worst over both the five year and ten year windows.

Feel free to show us "Multiple analysts have shown, via different metrics" and maybe you have a point, but to me, it doesn't pass the sniff test.

Why are you including 2010-2012? The team with Ziegler and McD back since 2013-now has been one of the worst drafting teams.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

That comes across as a butt hurt fan position, rather than a solid analysis.

NFL Drafting Efficiency, 2010-2019

third table shows if you adjust for draft position, we are top-quarter (#8) if you look at 2010-2019 and top-half (#15) if you look at 2014-2019.

Do you honestly think we could have had the results we've had if we really were one of the worst drafting teams in the league?

If you want to see the worst drafting teams, sort that table in increasing order.

No surprise, da Jete have been the worst over both the five year and ten year windows.

Feel free to show us "Multiple analysts have shown, via different metrics" and maybe you have a point, but to me, it doesn't pass the sniff test.

Here you go.
6th worst drafting team in the last 6 years. Kraft himself has acknowledged this, odd you're trying to fight and claim the Pats have drafted well. They haven't.

Why the Patriots’ draft misses are driving their downfall

The Patriots’ drafts from 2016-19 rank sixth-worst in the NFL, per career Approximate Value.

www.bostonherald.com

 

[Bill Lee]

Here you go.
6th worst drafting team in the last 6 years. Kraft himself has acknowledged this, odd you're trying to fight and claim the Pats have drafted well. They haven't.

Why the Patriots’ draft misses are driving their downfall

The Patriots’ drafts from 2016-19 rank sixth-worst in the NFL, per career Approximate Value.

www.bostonherald.com

Sorry, can't see it, it's behind a paywall. Feel free to give us a quote, hopefully one that shows us how the source came up with their position.

Show us where Kraft said they were the sixth worst drafting team in six years.

Then show us what position we've drafted in over the last six years.

 

[BlueThunder]

Base on some comments here, I was just wondering how many teams drafting in the 27-32 slots in the draft over the past 5 or 6 years have had success in drafting Pro Bowlers....Does anyone have a talley on the numbers? This is the first year in awhile that the Pats are drafting near middle of the rounds.

 

[50-yard-line]

The drafts from 2013 onward haven't been good. Multiple analysts have shown, via different metrics, the Patriots have been one of the worst drafting teams and it's finally caught up to us.

Anyone drafted before 2018 would be gone now or on a second contract, right?

Wise, Mason, Andrews are really the only one still with the team, while some others - Harmon, Ryan, Collins (twice), etc. - have moved on to other teams. Which is why your point that "it's caught up to us" makes no sense.

They'd all be on second contracts. So just pretend we had drafted Matthew Judon, Jonnu Smith, Hunter Henry, Devin Godchaux, Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne, Henry Anderson, Lawrence Guy, Kyle Van Noy...because if we HAD drafted that group, guess what, the Patriots would still have to be paying them the same money we're now paying them to have them on the team. Baltimore franchised Judon last year for $16m.

The draft is a way to balance teams with cheaper talent - for 4 years.

The Patriots right now have Bentley, Michel, Wynn, Bailey, Cowart, Cajuste, Winovich, Stidham, Harris, Williams, Harry, Herron, Onwenu, Keene, Asiasi, Jennings, Uche, Dugger, JC Jackson, Meyers, Andrews, Johnson, King, Taylor, Olszlewski - 25 players on rookie deals (off the top of my head).

They also have a lot of CAP space compared to most of the league this year and next.

So where exactly are they that you find so dire, and what do the 2013-2017 drafts have to do with their current team? This idea that you build a team through the draft is overblown, particularly for a team that wins all the time and so gets utterly poached year-after-year of their younger players coming off rookie deals.

So what exactly has caught up to them? Again, had they drafted, say, Judon, they would have had to pay him exactly as they're paying him (see Flowers, Trey).

 

[Ivan]

These draft boards are paralysis by analysis.

Deep

They should just get high and auto draft.

 

[TheRainMaker]

Deep

They should just get high and auto draft.

They are overcomplicating it.

Does this player fit a need?

Is he the best player available?

 

[Ivan]

They are overcomplicating it.

Does this player fit a need?

Is he the best player available?

You don’t build for one season, you are trying to get better and get great, and looking at it simply as just filling needs ultimately makes you the Jets.

 

[TheRainMaker]

You don’t build for one season, you are trying to get better and get great, and looking at it simply as just filling needs ultimately makes you the Jets.

Which is why I asked the second question.

 

[Ivan]

They are overcomplicating it.

Does this player fit a need?

Is he the best player available?

Just wondering, what f to take some easy why are so few people actually good at it ?

Go ahead and name all the GM’s that have multiple Lombardi’s’s who are in the game right now, or the past twenty years? Whichever way s easier for you.

 

[TheRainMaker]

Just wondering, what f to take some easy why are so few people actually good at it ?

You already know the answer to that question. There's a lot of GM's employed that shouldn't be. And many NFL players have said the Draft is a "meat market" where teams overcomplicate the process and find anything they can to either overdraft a player or not draft a player.

Go ahead and name all the GM’s that have multiple Lombardi’s’s who are in the game right now, or the past twenty years? Whichever way s easier for you.

Bro, calm down. Clearly Bill and Bob aren't satisfied with however many drafts, but they look to change their approach. They realize what they did previously may not be sustainable without the GOAT QB.

 

[Ivan]

You already know the answer to that question. There's a lot of GM's employed that shouldn't be. And many NFL players have said the Draft is a "meat market" where teams overcomplicate the process and find anything they can to overdraft a player or not draft a player.

Bro, calm down. Clearly Bill and Bob aren't satisfied with however many drafts, but they look to change their approach. They realize what they did previously isn't going to be sustainable without the GOAT QB.

Bullsh.t.

The most successful GM’s have great QB’s, yet none have come close to accomplishing what the Patriots have.

 

[TheRainMaker]

Bullsh.t.

The most successful GM’s have great QB’s, yet none have come close to accomplishing what the Patriots have.

Who is "great" besides Brady in the last 20 years?

 

[Ivan]

Who is "great" besides Brady in the last 20 years?

No one. Everybody else sucks, except you, you’re a genius.

 

[TheRainMaker]

No one. Everybody else sucks, except you, you’re a genius.

That wasn't the question. I guess we can end it there then?

 

[DropKickFlutie]

This idea that you build a team through the draft is overblown, particularly for a team that wins all the time and so gets utterly poached year-after-year of their younger players coming off rookie deals.

So what exactly has caught up to them? Again, had they drafted, say, Judon, they would have had to pay him exactly as they're paying him (see Flowers, Trey).

That's a pretty big claim for you to start arguing successful teams aren't built from the draft. It's pretty risky to think building via FA as the main avenue is the path to success. You're arguing a pretty big point but for a shaky position.

.

 

[50-yard-line]

That's a pretty big claim for you to start arguing successful teams aren't built from the draft. It's pretty risky to think building via FA as the main avenue is the path to success. You're arguing a pretty big point but for a shaky position.

.

I think I just showed you that half the roster came through the draft, on their first contract.

You build through the draft, partly - because the Patriots cleared most of their dead cap, lost some expensive players, then lost another group, cap-wise, with opt-out...and because so many other teams got hammered when the cap dropped this year, the Patriots were able to rebuild their middle class overnight, with cap room left to spare.

So I ask again, what exactly has caught up to them? They've got a really damned good roster right now, with CAP to spare, and with a fantastic balance between the three age/experience levels of player: lots on rookie deals, a really talented middle class, and some true vet leadership.

QB is another story. That's the missing piece right now, which has nothing to do with their previous drafts.