The 2020 Super Bowl pregame thread

[TB12TheGoat]

Yeah, that’s what the Chiefs are known for

I listened to all of Chris’s stuff, and I came away with the impression that:
1. His hate for Brady distorts his analysis
2. He discounts the impact of losing both starting tackles
3. He might be right about KC’s ability to use the short passing game to beat that pass rush...not sure I agree with him that they have morphed into that type of offense over the course of the season

anyone who has Elway and Rodgers as the two greatest of all time I take everything they say with a grain of salt

 

[amfootball]

I do think the path to the SB matters. Tampa has the much tougher play going on the road and beating Brees and Rodgers. Their moxie is at all time high. The Chiefs have the pressure of being expected to win which is a huge weight to carry in this game.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Chris Simms believes that the first quarter was the actual game and that the Chiefs took their foot off the gas the next 3 quarters

I don’t think either claim is likely to repeat itself, so not so relevant to prove what happened.

-The Chiefs won’t be relying on Tyreek Hill to absolutely dominate the Bucs defense with a historic game.

-The Bucs defense won’t be holding the Chiefs to 10 points over the game’s final three quarters or anything close to that type of result.

The Chiefs are going to score against anyone. Tyreek Hill will be a problem. The Bucs will take a different approach, but those receivers will be a handful.

The Saints and Packers games barely resembled the earlier season meetings; neither did the Chiefs-Bills.

Chris Simms is indeed biased, but he’s also an actual moron.

 

[amfootball]

I don’t think either claim is likely to repeat itself, so not so relevant to prove what happened.

-The Chiefs won’t be relying on Tyreek Hill to absolutely dominate the Bucs defense with a historic game.

-The Bucs defense won’t be holding the Chiefs to 10 points over the game’s final three quarters or anything close to that type of result.

The Chiefs are going to score against anyone. Tyreek Hill will be a problem. The Bucs will take a different approach, but those receivers will be a handful.

The Saints and Packers games barely resembled the earlier season meetings; neither did the Chiefs-Bills.

Chris Simms is indeed biased, but he’s also a actual moron.

The weather alone is going to change things.

 

[NYCPATS4LIFE]

The AFC is a strong conference. The Chiefs aren’t going away. I’d put BB’s odds at winning another SB as Pats head coach closer to 5% than 50% but I think he should be able to at least build a good team that can make the playoffs most years and win a game or two when there.

I don’t know if the AFC is a strong conference right now. Need a team like the chargers to start challenging the chiefs. They got the players in place. Josh Allen really stunk against the chiefs. It will be interesting to see if the bills can come back again. Not a believer in lamar jackson as a guy to get you to a super bowl.

 

[NYCPATS4LIFE]

I don’t think either claim is likely to repeat itself, so not so relevant to prove what happened.

-The Chiefs won’t be relying on Tyreek Hill to absolutely dominate the Bucs defense with a historic game.

-The Bucs defense won’t be holding the Chiefs to 10 points over the game’s final three quarters or anything close to that type of result.

The Chiefs are going to score against anyone. Tyreek Hill will be a problem. The Bucs will take a different approach, but those receivers will be a handful.

The Saints and Packers games barely resembled the earlier season meetings; neither did the Chiefs-Bills.

Chris Simms is indeed biased, but he’s also a actual moron.

The bucs punted on their first four possessions. That won’t happen again. They need to call a good game plan offensively. Short passes. Crosses etc. Not everything deep and predictable. They played one safety in that game defensively as well. That’s not happening again.

 

[TB12TheGoat]

Bucs can’t afford to lose time of possession 35ish-25ish

they need to keep the chains moving. Fournette and Jones need to actually catch their damn targets

 

[Mack Herron]

Key to team building.
Step 1: Draft a guy like Mahomes.
Step 2: Draft super elite guys like Hill and Kelce.
Step 3: Pay to keep/get top end defensive players while your QB's cap hit is still low.

I hate these kinds of stories. Not that these guys are not good at their job. But in the end it is the about having the players. They invested heavily to get Frank Clark, Tyrann Mathieu and Watkins to be there. Which they could only afford cause they never had to pay a QB during all that time. They rightly never over paid for a guy like Smith.

All they did was not over pay for a crap QB and got lucky enough to hit big on some draft picks, particularly one of those QBs that come along once every 20 years or so, like Montana and Brady. If you want to give anyone credit it goes entirely to their scouting department. Add in that they happened to land one of the better HCs in the NFL for good measure.

But while all of that is nice, no one right now would be talking about them like this is they didn't draft Mahomes. Not that they had a bad program before him, but they were one of those easy out teams in the AFC playoffs. 2015 - They beat the hapless Texans then lose to the Pats in a game that in no way was as close as the 30-27 score says. 2016 - Lose in the Divisional round to he Steelers with home field after a bye. One of the least scary 2nd seed teams in recent memory. 2017 - Lost to the Titans in the WC. Good enough to make the playoffs, but never a team in serious contention. This is what they were before getting Mahomes. If they had ended up with Trubisky instead of Mahomes or Watsons that draft, there would be no articles talking about their team building ability or how smart they are.

Yes, you are having a good run drafting guys overall but you had a better run 4-8 years ago then you have the last 1-3. And maybe, just maybe, luck played a role in that. If not, they why haven't they drafted any guys the level of Hill, Kelce, Jones or Mahomes since 2017?

Everything looks rosy when you win, especially the culture and coaches. Everything is bad when you lose. Of course it is mostly talented players, and the most important player is the great QB who doesn’t take a lot of cap.

 

[skinnydog]

Ya but here I think rain does favor Tampa rain would favor the smash mouth physical team and Tampa can run it down KC throat

Chiefs O-Line was lousy at run blocking even before the injuries. Biucs D-Line is one of the very best against the run.

 

[skinnydog]

Yeah, that’s what the Chiefs are known for

I listened to all of Chris’s stuff, and I came away with the impression that:
1. His hate for Brady distorts his analysis
2. He discounts the impact of losing both starting tackles
3. He might be right about KC’s ability to use the short passing game to beat that pass rush...not sure I agree with him that they have morphed into that type of offense over the course of the season

The Chiefs offense is in no way a short passing game offense. That's just not what they do.

 

[skinnydog]

Interesting analysis of a weakness fo the Chiefs and Mahomes on offense. You have to wade through some ads up front but it's worth it. This was done before the playoffs started, but it does include a segment on what the Bucs did wrong and then did right on defense and an analysis of how other teams have slowed down the Chiefs this year. Basically, talks about how the Chiefs are true big play offense and making them go on long drawn out drives ( ala BB bend but don't break) really takes them out of their game. Talks about how they consistently go dep on 3 rd an long and quite often hit on it. Talks about Mahomes taking huge drops in these situations and flinging it downfield to a streaking Hill. /when taking those huge drops he tends to put himself right in the path of edge rushers who are rusing almost straight up field. That's kind of strength of Tampa and with Vea back they will get plenty of push up the middle. Says you simply cannot play Mahomes with a single high safety because he kills that coverage. Bucs did that in the first have and Mahomes killed them. They abandoned that coverage and the game settled down.

 

[BobDigital]

I don’t think either claim is likely to repeat itself, so not so relevant to prove what happened.

-The Chiefs won’t be relying on Tyreek Hill to absolutely dominate the Bucs defense with a historic game.

-The Bucs defense won’t be holding the Chiefs to 10 points over the game’s final three quarters or anything close to that type of result.

The Chiefs are going to score against anyone. Tyreek Hill will be a problem. The Bucs will take a different approach, but those receivers will be a handful.

The Saints and Packers games barely resembled the earlier season meetings; neither did the Chiefs-Bills.

Chris Simms is indeed biased, but he’s also a actual moron.

Agreed. None of these games have been the same as last time. Many have been drastically different as you pointed out. I already did a big write up on this game but I don't think I talked about how I think it will exactly play out. Here is how I see that happening.

The game this will most resemble will be like the KC-Saints game, If the Saints offense was replaced with the Bucs offense. I see it being a higher possession game with each team getting around 12-13 possessions. I see the Bucs pass rush causing problems for the Bucs which lead to them punting more than usual. I also see the KC defense giving the Bucs some issues on and off as well. I don't think the run game for any team (at least with their RBs) will be much of a factor. I see KC making one more turnover than the Bucs. After Brady's 3 Ints the the 2nd half of GB I think he'll play a very clean game. It may end up being 1-0 or 2-1 in turnovers. I don't see this game having too many, so i think something like 2-3 is very unlikely.

Hill will be limited obviously. That goes without saying. As for Kelce he will do his thing for a while, but I think eventually they will figure out how to limit him too if they keep going to him, which I think KC will until the Bucs stop it. Once that happens between the mid 3rd to late 4th quarter, the Game will turn in TB's favor strongly for that time. By this point KC will have used a lot of their designed plays, as well as their opening drives. They are among the best teams at scripting plays/drives. They will have a number of really good goal line players ready and a number of have a very well thought out opening drive in the first and second half. But once they get into the mid 3rd they will be running low on those. I think they are likely to have a small lead at this point. Maybe 20-14 or 21-17. Then for the next 20 minutes it will swing TB and go 20-31 or 20-28 or something.

However, once it gets to this point in KC is in 4 down must score mode they become pretty damn unstoppable, unless you get a turnover it's nearly impossible to keep them from getting first downs and turning them into touchdowns. And if they need a 2 point conversion they will get it. Mahomes, his WRs and a guy he can lateral the ball too will flood the right side of the field. There is almost no stopping that kind of play.

This game will eventually come down to the Bucs/Brady ability to answer and/or run the clock out to keep the lead. I think they will.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Stats of the day.

In 2020 Tom was near the bottom of the league in on target throws and near the top in bad throws. Both are accuracy-related.

Good thing he has all those playmakers on offense.

If he was still here it would be painful to watch.

 

[sb1]

Stats of the day.

In 2020 Tom was near the bottom of the league in on target throws and near the top in bad throws. Both are accuracy-related.

Good thing he has all those playmakers on offense.

If he was still here it would be painful to watch.

And would still be so much better than Cam and Pick Six Stidham.

 

[RobertWeathers]

And would still be so much better than Cam and Pick Six Stidham.

No question.

Tom would still be close to 4000yds, 20tds here. Comp % and QB rating would be lower.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Another monster bet on Tampa.

Furniture store owner Jim 'Mattress Mack' McIngvale bets $3.46M on underdog Tampa Bay Buccaneers to cover 3.5-point Super Bowl spread

Houston furniture store owner Jim "Mattress Mack" McIngvale has placed a $3.46 million bet on the underdog Buccaneers at +3.5 against the Chiefs in Super Bowl LV.

www.espn.com

 

[sb1]

Wow.

 

[The Brandon Five]

Chiefs O-Line was lousy at run blocking even before the injuries. Biucs D-Line is one of the very best against the run.

Bucs were the best team in the NFL at stopping the run in 2020.

 

[The Brandon Five]

Bucs can’t afford to lose time of possession 35ish-25ish

they need to keep the chains moving. Fournette and Jones need to actually catch their damn targets

Like the Falcons in SB LI being explosive on offense could actually hurt them in the long run if they have a lead. Nice long scoring drives are the key.

 

[TB12TheGoat]